₦airaland Forum

Access bank is on an exceptional run too, closed on very strong bid. Results I believe are due next week.
I've exited though. 25% is good enough for me. Though I expect Access to get to N28.

@ Man Jiro et Pumping 777,

Any chance you can send the formating sheet to moi @ goodlife101@hotmail.co.uk.


Much appreciated.

Access results are due out anytime now (I think it's been held back deliberatly for a Jan release). I expect Access to top N27
shortly. Also, this is a good time to take position with Zenith Bank. Once the TS is lifeted, expect a bull run.

I COMMEND the British authorities for their tenacity in the Ibori investigation. The AGF, with his judicial militantancy and misplaced nationalist pletitude is making a fool of himself. They are only doing what their laws empowers them to do (something our leaders have neither the will nor the capacity to do)

Let's for a second even discount Ibori's source of wealth. Assuming he had invested his loot in people oriented ventures, maybe he would not have been in as much of a mess. As a Deltan, I can tell you authoritatively, that Ibori empowered only a very few whilst a majority wallowed in poverty, in state so richly blessed. Very soon, Togo will be trying Nigerians for money laundering, because our leaders are too clueless, backward and compromised to act.

BTW, don't expect much to come out of the Ibori case in Nigeria. The AGF still has a few "rule of law" obstacles to put up. The worst that can happen to him in Nigeria is some form of restitution and a slap on the wrist. Therefore, I'll continue to look to the British authorities for the punishment that he deserves, that will hurt him the most - a custodial sentence and furteiture of all his assets in the UK.

Which Bank they collect 1% oo make I hear?

The credit on my facility is charged on a pro-rata basis and works out at approx 17% p/a (plus charges=21% max). That works out at 0.05%  p/d. Drawn over a 14 day period= 0.8 %.  Off course, this is a best case scenario. Drawn over a 30 day period=1.72%. I can live with this for a 10 - 15% gain on volume trades.

If the money is not drawn, no interest (except management fee of 1% p/a) is charged.  The fact is that only commited funds cost me. That, I can live with.

BTW, many of those 0%'s I've used for real estate investments in the UK and worked out quite well for investments like that (Though most now come with a 2 - 3% "transfer" fee so not so free after all ).

I have used considerable credit in both the UK and US, but have found the Nigerian credit more appealing, because it makes me sleep better at night, high interest rates notwithstanding.  Anywhere I invest, I try to keep the asset/liabilities as local as posible to avoid risk cross-overs.

Take a simple scanario. Managed to invest 18M of credit in Access bank 2-3 weeks ago. Sold 1 week later with a 1M profit. Bought it back at N3.3  less few days later. Now approx 5% growth. Do I care if I'm paying 1% to the bank? Not really. At least no-one is asking for a £800 monthly charge for credit on credit card in the UK.  Many of these opportunities abound in the NSE. The Nigerian market is a growth market. As long as the stocks selected are of fundamentally sound companies, worst that can happen is that it'll take a little longer to materialize if an expected pattern unravels.

Great Great Uniben

@walcolm

The sale of Nitel is unlikely to be revoked. We all know all the noise making is just playing to the gallery. . However, should it by a stroke of misfortune be reversed, expect a serious backlash. The average investor is not as savvy as you think.

It will be percieved as a negative development, even a vendatta. And with the noise around Transcorp Hilton, some will fear the setbacks will continue.  The best outcome for TransCorp is a public declaration of support for Transcorp and their turn-around plan, injection of funds to Nitel in particular and some good news from management.

As for me, I'll wait till there's some serious news of a change in fotune, then grow my investment again. In the meantime, there's serious money to be made in other stocks and I intend to be part of it.

@samstone4

I agree with you. Transcorp has been a disapointment though.  Public sentiment is certainly not in their favour, and their venture with C&W was scuppered by the goverment recently, leaving Nitel in a state of Limbo.  Basically, that would have involved ceeding control of SAT3.  

I had considerable (CONSIDERABLE) holdings in TransCorp which I bought at the Private Placement. I have offloaded a lot, and left the profit there (bought during the private placement so made a profit). Whilst I have faith in the future of TransCorp, this has become a case of opportunity cost / lost. The politics is getting in the way.

The stories are just too negetive these days, and the main reasons I invested have all but dissapeard

1) Calibre of Directors - Dangote's out. Bank CEO's out. Even when they were onboard, their selfish interest and ego's was certainly an obstacle. There was also conflicts of interest (selfishness). Ovia and Dangote are now pushing full stream with their own telecoms company. That effort would have been best invested in Transcorp since they have so much faith!

2) Promise of Funding, the Billion Euros pandered by Ndi Okereke never materialised.

3) Assets - Now Nitel sale to be reviewed by BPE, N Assembly etc etc. I also read that TransCorp Hilton is also being contested. Whilst all of this would likely come to nothing, the  shivers generated may send the shares sharply southwards.

4) Goverment / public support - Pipe dream. Transcorp attracts too much negative / adverse reactions. Not good for a company in the short to medium term.

I need my money working for me NOW. Can't tie too much down for a long term prospect while fast trains pass me by. FCMB, ACCESS, Intercontinental, UBA, Zenith presents better short to mid term opportunities. When Transcorp comes round, I'll aquire a lot more.  I still have faith in the long term viability of Transcorp. But for now, sentiments will have no footing in my investment decisions.

Sold my GTB @ N34. Hope it goes sub N30 soon enough. I think this strategy works best with large volume trades.

Also, I agree with FatherOf2I think a good one to buy is certainly Zenith Bank and FCMB. FCMB soon as possible, Zenith, December.

I also agree that buyers should aways appraise themselves of risks inherent in any trade decisions. Nothing can predict the future of stocks with certainty.

Corporate governance is vital in companies that one invests in.

@ Wanajo, agree with this statement, but it would seem the pressure on banks to grow
revenue and  "positioning" following the rash of PO's / GDR / debt, has/will undoubtedly lead
to  share price manipulation and creative accounting amongst some banks.

It's hard tell which banks may or may not be involved, but banks like GTB somehow comes
across as one that doesn't. Only time will tell.

Sooner or later, the CBN / SEC will have to increase their supervisory functions over these banks.
God forbid a major scandal erupts in this sector - the bedrock of the NSE's exponential growth.

The consequences of this is better imagined.

so if the sale is reversed no real problem apart from sentiments

No need to panic (in the mid-long term) with Transcorp. The sale will not be reversed.
As a matter of fact, I see a swift turnaround of fortunes. What I see coming out of this
is a resolution that Transcorp needs more funding (which everyone already knows!), and
then deliberations on funding options.

The goverment may asssit, and rightly so. They own 49% of the company and
should be providing all possible assistance, not these political rhetoric. Besides,
transcorp is already a public company with very sound management but lacking
funds.

The dust will settle by January after all the reviews, and any good news from
that is likely to result in a sharp, northward swing of the share price.

or are willing to hold on to cash

Right now, cash is king. With the exception of stocks like Access, First
bank which I managed to acquire on Monday, I'd rather kick back and watch my cash-
flow until mid December /  January when these assets have attractive prices.

I missed the Intercontinental @ < N26. This is one I believe can
touch N40 by March 08. Still hoping and eagerly waiting for the bears
to take hold in  December.

When do you think I should keep holding my GTB to?? I fear-oh

I believe GTB will drop further, may reach the N29 mark by December. If you're playing
short, you may want to sell b/w N33 and N34 now, then buy back when it's in the
20's.

My guess is that the market didn't have enought time to react to the under-expectation result. I suspect we'll see a small drop on Monday.

I'm a little concerned. I do not believe these banks can grow their revenue at the same pace.
This will not necessary translate into better shareholder value.

This is also depressing the secondary market. I think the central bank should bring in regulation to stem
the tide. Maybe stipulating that a minimum notice of 1 year should be given to the sec, nse will help
cool this trend.

This rush to market is becoming a turn by turn business and is starting to be worrying.

The Nigerian maket is deep indeed, but I'm convinced a lot of 'dirty' money makes it's way into the capital market.

Read an article yesterday how a past governor invested N5 Billion in Afribank (thanks to the efcc, the money was returned to the state). There will certainly be other 'dirty' money that slips through.


As for me, I think Zenith is a good buy, but for short to mid-term investors, I'll play the secondary market instead. The lifting of suspension will co-incide with what is likely to be a bullish 1st quarter.

What disheartens me is that a goon like Atiku is  being discussed in any positive context. Politics or not, men like Atiku and IBB should be discarded into the political dustbin.

It's not an excuse to state that we individually have no influence over the outcome of elections in Nigeria. Collectively, we can make a difference, whether based in Nigeria or not.


The likes of Atiku and IBB have raped our nation, and continue to live large. I know the ostentatious lives Atiku's family live in London, jetting around the world like lease jets are going out of fashion!

My views are more inclined to that of Iyke-D. Whilst the views may be idealist, they are positive. Atiku, IBB and their lot will never get a positive reference from me, however powerful or 'electible' they may be in Nigeria!!

Tella is a spiritual thing.
Look when Tom join transcorp i wrote on Nairaland. That he would not perform. And look the way the stock have gone down. I can not explain spiritual thing over here. Go read your bible or koran.

Are you for real? Please move your contributions to the jokes section where it belongs!

With their zero experience in telecoms they still chose to "buy" or they thought it's hilton hotel where you boil water make garri and biz don star

It may shock you to know that running a 5 Star hotel is just as cumbersome, requiriing just as much specialist management as running a telecoms company. If Hilton had struggled, people would have complained that TransCorp has no hotel, hospitality experience. In this age of globalization, diversification, you DO NOT need specialist knowledge to own a company. You can get the right management in place to make it work. How much experience did the virgin group have outside the Airline business. Yet they're buying up, and succeeding at running telecoms companies, media, Trains and soon a bank!! How did GE get into all the businesses they're now involved in? Organic growth or acquisitions? Venture Capitalists are falling over themselves to acquire ailing companies as fast as they can spell them. How much experience do they have in running pharmaceutical, retail businesses? None. Yet, they acquire, engage and often DO turn them around.

The point I'm making is that the must-have-hands-on-experience-to-own concept is outdated and yesterday's prescription. Transcorp certainly made mistakes in the appointments of Longe and the previous management team. They have corrected this by getting the right management team in place  - Iseghohi, Okigbo, Caruso, Ladi Williams and a host of others. Most of these guys bring a wealth of specialist experience that will bring good tidings to Transcorp.

Remodelling of Transcorp and it's parts is a work progress. I'm certain that many critics of today will rue Transcorp as an opportunity missed.

I believe Access bank is a good buy. January next year it should be selling for at N29 at least. My only concern is how long it'll take them to release share certificate. For some inexplicable reason, they seem to the the type of company that'll hold on to share certificates forever.

I think Afribank is currently overpriced. Oceanic I think is a good buy long and short term. FCMB is also solid, with their ipo approaching, should be a good buy.

@stanchuks,

TransCorp is a mid-long term stock. I believe it'll be double it's current value by the end of next year if not earlier. There is a lot going on in the company now with Sat3 (broadband, cable TV, and land lines) and MTEL. Once they start working their SAT3 asset, they'll gain some market share, as their offering will be much cheaper than existing competition.

The effort now within the company is geared towards ensuring the price does not drop too much once the suspension is lifted in about a month, so expect some mopping up of shares (perhaps with funds provided by strategic investors to be anounced soon). Even if the price dropped, it's bound to rebound. There is still a lot of money to be made in Telecoms in Nigeria. What we have is the very basic stuff, with plenty of room for service improvement and new products offerings.

So to answer your question, it depends on what you need the money for. If you're in need of cash now, then there is no argument there. If you're looking to diversify, then consider the opportunity cost of taking your money elsewhere.

Oceanic will certainly hit 35 by September end, and likely beyond. There'll likely be a bonus issue - maybe 1 for 6, so expect a rally around this time.

There may be a rally after the suspension, but by how much, with the low EPS, high PE, low dividend yield compared to other banks, it's bound to loose steam fairly quickly, but, if an exceptional result that beats all projections is released, then price can rally to as much as N20 in the short term.

@teena,

Fidelity bank is certainly not a First bank or UBA. Unless they release a spectacular result for the EOY in June, I'll thread carefully with this one as far as rally post technical suspension goes.

Their EPS is one of the lowest in the sector, PE is one of the highest. Their dividend yield, @ 1.14% is also amongst the lowest in the sector.

I think you're better of buying Oceanic Bank for example, if your outlook is the next 3 - 5 months.

Don't borrow too much. @ 750M shares on offer, you can expect over-subscription by over a factor of 4. However be assured that Aliko will refund excess money promptly.

Abeg allow the man settle down, , this is his first interview and he'll need time to adjust and correct himself. It's no small task settling into OBJ's big shoes.

Income tax for the rich is 40% while for the middle class its 22% going down to 20% next year.The rich actually do pay a disproportiante share of the taxes.This contrary to the common misconception that they have are not contributing their fair share

I would like to know your definition of "rich" ? Someone  on PAYE,  earning £100,000 PA ? More? Less?

The people you describe as rich are actually the middle-classes. They may be "high" income earners, but they are the middle-classes non-the-less.

I've been on 40% tax bracket for 10 years and I'm nowhere near rich. I dare say that very few people who depend solely on paid employment in the UK can consider themselve rich.  Maybe city traders and bankers with firms like Goldman Sachs, Meryll Lynch, Lehman and Morgan Stanley who get 6, 7 figure bonuses at year end may fall into the "Rich" class. But they will not make the Times Rich List unless their networth is well over £3million. This category of people are in the extreme minority compared to other tax payers. Millionaires are happy to pay themselves (payee) £60,000 P/A, and get other tax exempt or low-tax benefits running into millions. This is simply how they protect their wealth. Tax avoidance is now an art form for the rich and business owners/investors are the ultimate "beneficiaries".

Rich people in the UK (like most places) are investors, business owners. There are so many clever tax schemes out there that help them pay less than 15% on income from numerous asset classes and income streams. Wealthy people are the ones most likely to take advantage of these services as their incomes would justify the cost.

You live in the UK.Can you name one instance where the Govt subsidised a business acquisition

One example springs to mind. Find out about Rover car company that was sold last year. The goverment was so keen to sell it off (and protect jobs) that it was being pandered around with promise of goverment "grants". Before that, the company that owned it bought it for £1 because it was making serious loses and again, goverment needed to protect jobs. Politics and business go hand in hand dude.

Also the rich pay higher taxes in the UK than the middle and lower classes.

Please, please lets not go there. It's a known fact that it's the middle classes that holds an econmy together. In most cases rich people (especially business owners) find clever ways to avoid tax and many succeed. They hire expensive tax lawyers, domicile their companies abroad or off-shore, live less than 180 days in a particular country and other clever tax avoidance schemes. Many goverments (especially in Europe) generally turn a blind eye as long as they get some taxes and these people create jobs!

And I did not say they do not pay more taxes. I said they pay disproportionately lower tax. A man who earns 1 billion a year and pays 100 million in taxes has paid disproportionately less tax than I (that pay at source)

Truth is that one can easily trace the history of people like Mittal Lakshmi. We can see where he's coming from and can beat our chest that he acquired all he has in a very transparent way. The Brits won't let him go very far if he has his hands soiled at any point in the process of acquiring anything anywhere - including evading taxes.

Don't be to sure of this. I can tell you categorically that these people pay disproportionately less tax than the middle and lower classes. In fact for most of them the taxes they pay is negligible. That is one of the reasons why the likes of Abramovich, Mital and hordes other billionaires find their way to London. In many instances, these people are allowed to buy up businesses on the cheap, sometimes subsidized by the goverment in order to generate employment. This is a very common practice in Europe. If PH refinery that can employ 20% more people, create more wealth in taxes to the Revenue, increase fuel supply and associated cost of importation - I'm glad.
Besides who said they are that "clean". What you find in their backyards may shock you!

But here, we have bootlickers, goons, party loyalists in a corrupt and worm infested party called FeeDeeFee calling the shots.

This can be said of most, if not all of the parties in Nigeria. I watched a programme recently where Pat Utomi said something like over 90% of our politicians are self serving and selfish. PDP just happens to be the party in power and the most dominant. I suspect that parties like the AC, with Atiku at the helm, will fair even worse if they were in power.

Why would Otedola, Dangote associate with this party? To satisfy their selfish thirst for stealing peoples property, of course.

Hmm,  so now they should be condemned for supporting a party of their choice? This is politics everywhere in the world. In the UK, business leaders in the city of London are waiting, hedging to figure out which party policy would promote their interest (bottomline, profits) before pledging support. This is capitalism at play and Dangote/Otedola should not be crucified for exercising their civil right in participating in our democracy.

I'll rather we don't ''progress'' at all than have all these crooks feasting on our heritage.

You may be suggesting we maintain the status quo, where the likes of Atiku, IBB and a host of others sell these corporations to themselves via funny proxies, and we all pretend everything is right! I'm glad that the process is at least open for all to see. We may disagree with the process, dislike the winners, doubt the transparency of transaction - but at least it's in the open. It's indeed a step in the right direction.

And I think the likes of Oshkosh are at the fore front of those who love living ''happily'' and being in the midst of ''happy people''

Lakshmi Mittal, the richest man in England and a major supporter of the ruling Labour party has donated £2 million pounds to the party. He has, and continues to enjoy goverment support in the acquisition of assets, locally and abroad.  And this is in a developed economy where there are few, if any, companies left to privatize.

Yes, I'm happy, because I see these little steps as steps in the right direction. As progress in a nation where nothing works. We've had Nitel, NEPA, NPA etc in a comatose state for decades and I certainly won't loose sleep over private hands bringing them back to life for the benefit of our nation.

BTW, was'nt the bid by Dangote, Rivers state, Otedola and Transcorp the highest tabled for PH refinery? Or it should it be handed to the second highest bidder because Dangote and Otedola are buddies of the ruling party?

If we allow sentiments  to overcome our judgement, our future as a nation will be imperiled and no different from our past. If the refinery had been sold to an Indian consortium for $300 million instead of the $561 paid by Bluestar group,  I'm sure it would not have been a problem to many.

Our progress as a nation is slow, but I choose to acknowledge these developments as a welcome departure from the inactivity, lethargy and ineffectiveness of the past.

Obasanjo wants to own this country. Stealing the money isn't quite enough. He's already started - Transcorp is just a typical example

Hmm, when does 200 million shares in a company with over 18 billion outstanding shares translate to owning /controlling the company? Please get the facts and do the maths.

.

No point in "hating". This is the problem with our people. If Angel Gabriel came down to Nigeria and paved the streets with gold, our people will still find something to complain about. Some will suggest that maybe he wants to take the place of Jesus christ!

Let's give credit to Dangote for his vision, successes and passion for Nigeria. Big businesses - and businessmen around the world thrive on goverment contact in one form or another. 

Dangote is contributing much more than all his contemporaries towards the development of Nigeria. The same cannot be said of other billionaires - IBB, Atiku etc in Nigeria.

He is one of biggest inspirations in Nigeria and one of the  motivations for me investing thre inspite of the risks.

Even if Port Harcourt refinery is sold for $1, as long as it can contribute to alleviating the chronic problem of fuel scarcity in Nigeria, creating employment and wealth for the nation,  who cares!