₦airaland Forum

This one was easy. Look at the billions being traded, yet the stock still didn't close in the red. Like I said, ₦100+ is coming for FIRSTHOLDCO.

Some people have now changed their tune, from calling for -20% to now talking about +20%. Others are congratulating people who sold, when another 15% to 20% upside is still very likely. Lol

Agbalowomeri:
They probably don't need to panic. They can become investors till next year. If Q1 is sustained, can we see EPS of N25 by year end?

As I see the ₦9 billion traded so far today, I have no fear. ₦100 is not far away. Based on Morgan Capital's order book, all the current sell offers are worth less than ₦2 billion, meaning they can easily be cleared if the heavyweight buyers are still in the market. I'm not really interested in what the retail traders are doing with their small buy orders. Left to them, FIRSTHOLDCO would be down 10%.

Pennystockwarri:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kV_rjJ3zY0?si=6L-Z9ZWeoLna8LZK

A few stocks I'd be watching closely in today's trading session on the NGX

The bigger question for FIRSTHOLDCO is: Who is buying, and why?

Let's look at the data:

It traded ₦80 billion last Thursday, ₦1.3 billion on Friday, ₦22.33 billion on Tuesday, ₦6.19 billion on Wednesday, and ₦3.38 billion on Thursday.

We can see that over the last three trading days, it has consistently closed at the day's high while traded value has been declining. The evidence appears to suggest that sellers are being absorbed.

Based on the above, two questions arise:

Have the aggressive buyers exhausted their buying power?
Will sellers eventually come out en masse and overwhelm the buyers?

Your analysis is based on normal market activity (Organic Trading), but what we have witnessed over the last few days does not appear to be normal.

NB: Not a buy signal.

ikemeze:
which stocks?

Oga Street, they are using your brother, Ikemeze, to get to you. For all we know, the real G behind this might be Adebayo Babatunde Adejikpo. 😄

Agbalowomeri:
30% in three days will make many to offload especially when we are not in a general bull

Ok, that is possible, but it is a big speculation. Why didn't they rush in to offload today? As I mentioned, today's traded value was lower than yesterday's, and most of the trades were executed at the day's highest price. You can see that the evidence we have at the moment does not support your case.

That said, it could still happen, as you suggested, if the people buying these billions of naira worth of shares at the highest prices run out of money.

KarlTom:
Let's see what FIRSTHOLDCO will do tomorrow.

My preliminary analysis is the FB will be very thin or flat...

Every mallam to his kettle

No vex, I don't understand your message. Were there many sell offers that didn't get filled today? I was busy, so I wasn't following the bid-ask table.

Yesterday, it closed at the day's high, with about ₦6 billion worth of shares absorbed by buyers. Then today, it again closed at the day's high, with another ₦3 billion absorbed by buyers.

Or do you think the buyers have exhausted their gunpowder, or were there simply too many unfilled sell offers today?

Mpeace:
I hope this first bank carry us go 500.
Make e no be say our mentor just dey raise money for dang refinery ipo

hopeful95:
Can I still buy now?

It seems all the holders are playing the game of "Let's not sell because everyone else is holding," hence the full bid. That will continue until one or more Judas decide to start dumping. Then others follow and start selling too (perhaps at ₦100 or above). But if the buy side is strong enough to absorb the selling pressure, then maybe we could see prices reach Zenith's current level, or who knows GTCO.

mikeapollo:
I agree with you; Those selling are making good profits, of course.
My comment is to highlight the pros and cons for those who may be buying now to keep for the long term.

My target is above ₦100. I think FIRSTHOLDCO may be chasing after ZENITHBANK and GTCO. If it moves above Zenith, the real question will be: Can it sustain strong dividend payments, or is the buy side simply deep enough to keep pushing the price higher?

Disclosure: I bought a few months ago and still hold a position.

Mankind2024:
@Omo Osi, I do not blame you. Nairaland.com denied me the right to reply, deleted my post, and banned me.
You are one of the Toxicus Delusionalis breed of Mr. Gringory.
Your partner in envy and hatred for the Nigerian nation had the temerity to threaten me. He missed road.
Both of you combined cannot withstand my intellectual assault. It has nothing to do with age, you are the blind Omo Osi who needs to grow up.
You haters of Nigeria who see no good in our indefatigable president, we left you and your crazy, rabid Toxicus Delusionalis fellows for too long.

You have even turned an investment platform into a political one, where you daily rain insults on our president.
Never in your miserable life should you ever comment on my posts again.

Take it easy. Don't let the bots ban you again. Lol.

All this jibber-jabber over someone you've never met and probably never will. I was once guilty of the same, but I eventually realized how pointless it was.

Namaster:
You are RIGHT.
That is what the figures say.

But that does NOT invalidate my previous post.

The previous post says the figures say that largely because of the difference in POPULATION sizes.

When Total GDP is converted to Total GDP PPP, Nigeria comes out at about $1 TRILLION higher than Argentina.

But that difference VANISHES immediately you compute GDP PPP per capita.
Why?
POPULATION.

The calculation is TOP-DOWN not BOTTOM-UP.

For instance, the figures say the Average SoL is higher in Argentina than in Nigeria.
But NOBODY is actually looking at each individual's SoL.
They look at the total figures and extrapolate.

And population plays a KEY role in that extrapolation.

That is all.

In fact, the difference in Total GDP and Total GDP PPP means that things are CHEAPER in Nigeria than in Argentina.
And the Cost of Living in Argentina is HIGHER than in Nigeria.

But the VAST difference in population ERODES that.

In fact the difference in population is so INSANE that when you remove the number of people living in poverty in both countries, there is still a CHANCE that there are MORE people in Nigeria who enjoy a healthy SoL than people who enjoy a similar SoL in Argentina.

But the figures still say what you say they say.
And my previous post still remains VALID.

Let me address your points one by one:

1. GDP per capita = GDP ÷ Population

As I pointed out, and as your own write-up acknowledges, population is a major factor. But that is exactly what GDP per capita is designed to measure. It is simple: five people sharing ₦500 are better off than twenty people sharing the same ₦500. That is the whole point of measuring per capita.

2. "Nobody looks at each individual's standard of living; they extrapolate from totals."

Nobody said that every Argentine is richer than every Nigerian. The point is that, on average, an Argentine is richer than a Nigerian. That is what GDP per capita measures.

3. "There is a chance that there are more people in Nigeria enjoying a healthy standard of living than people enjoying a similar standard of living in Argentina."

Based purely on population, that is possible since Nigeria has about 220 million people while Argentina has about 46 million. For example, 5% of 220 million is more than 20% of 46 million. However, you still need to prove that 5% of Nigerians actually live above that standard. So, this point says nothing about the average Nigerian, which is what GDP per capita is intended to measure.

4. "Things are cheaper in Nigeria than Argentina."

That is one of the reasons economists use GDP per capita (PPP) rather than nominal GDP per capita. PPP adjusts for differences in local prices. Even after that adjustment, Argentina has historically had a substantially higher GDP per capita than Nigeria.

Also, note that both countries depend heavily on imports. Imported goods are generally priced according to international markets, so people with higher incomes or higher GDP per capita can afford better imported products. It is simple logic.

I hope I have clarified my position.

Krisuba:
Why is firsthand on solo bull??

Lol, that is why you need to follow the money. I checked StockBubbles, and it now shows both intraday and daily traded volume and value. If you had been monitoring the traded value, you would have seen that last Thursday it recorded over ₦80 billion in traded value. Then yesterday, it recorded another ₦20 billion. That is over ₦100 billion in traded value within two weeks.

Either people are selling off, or they are accumulating. It looks more like accumulation because all these trades have been executed at higher prices. FIRSTHOLDCO has closed below ₦57 in the last two to three weeks.

@Mankind2024 was trying to quote your post, but it was taken down, probably by the Nairaland bot.

My question is: why resort to name-calling and insults if you're sure of what you're saying? Why not simply make your point clearly and back it up with facts?

If you fill your argument with insults and degrading remarks, how are you any better than the people you're arguing against?

I think you still need to grow as a person. Maybe another 10 years will help you reach maturity.

Agbalowomeri:
You don't believe stock valuations can outrun a good economy? And again, am I mostly pessimistic about NGX? Is there a difference between being pessimistic and being cautious?

About 90% of your posts are bearish. None of them has been a cautionary note. Go back and check all your posts from early 2023 to today.

So, has the NGX been outperforming the economy since 2023?

I think the only positive posts you made during that period were about a few insurance stocks, and that was after you had been called out many, many times for your failed bearish calls.

Abi na joke? Because I can hardly tell when you're being serious or joking.

Anyway, you're free to say whatever you want. It's your right.

Agbalowomeri:
I hope you have seen the explosion in job vacancies in the manufacturing and construction industries? And it's just starting.

Please post references or links supporting your claim of a job explosion.

On another note, why are you mostly pessimistic about the NGX if you believe the economy is exploding? Isn't that contradictory?

Itzlinda:
And today Argentina's Peso is officially worthless.

Yet Argentina has a better standard of living than Nigeria despite its weak peso, because, in the end, it is not only the value of your currency that determines how well a country is doing.

By the way, Argentina's minimum wage is about US$250 per month, while Nigeria's is about US$46 per month. Both countries are highly dependent on imports. So, who do you think can afford more? Who is more likely to wear better jeans, shirts, and shoes? Who can more easily buy better imported phones and laptops? Who is more likely to drive better used "tokunbo" cars?

Namaster:
When talking about GDP per capita, one thing to consider is POPULATION.

Argentina has a population of 46 Million.
Nigeria has a population of 245 Million.

We have NEARLY 200 Million MORE people than Argentina.
In fact, you can remove 5 Argentinas from Nigeria in terms of population and still have enough people left to populate SMALL country.

A HUGE disparity in population like that will inevitably skew per capita computations.

That said, there TOTAL GDP is still HIGHER than Nigeria.....and that of ALL other countries in Africa.

But when you compute TOTAL GDP in terms of Purchasing Power Parity, Nigeria's is HIGHER.

One of ONLY 2 countries in Africa to manage that.

Finally, Argentina's GDP also comes with a FAT debt of $549 BILLION resulting in over 80.3% Debt-to-GDP ratio.

Compared to Nigeria's GDP which comes with a debt of $103 Billion and a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 35.5%.

Fun fact:
Argentina also has a HIGHER GDP per capita and GDP per capita PPP than China.

Let that SINK in.

It is quite simple to understand. Based on these numbers, the average Argentinian enjoys a better standard of living than the average Nigerian or Chinese. That is what this long epistle is saying.

A family of four earning ₦500,000 per month has a higher standard of living than a family of fifteen earning ₦1 million per month. Nigeria's GDP is sometimes higher than that of some European countries, including Norway, but its GDP per capita is much lower by comparison.

So, it is not just about how much a country earns, but how much of that income each person effectively enjoys.

Agbalowomeri:
This your declaration is humble. Wetin happen to billion shares

At least I have a conscience. I know I'm trying to take what was never mine in the first place. Besides, it's easier to take a small share. Trump wants the whole Strait of Hormuz, lol.

presiade:
But Nairaland belongs to Seun Osewa and family? If Seun wants to control traffic on Nairaland, you will say no, correct? And if he disagrees, you’ll send bombs to neutralize him, and his entire village, right?

I can block Nairaland if he refuses to pay me 20% of all ad revenue using Denial-of-Service, Distributed Denial-of-Service, and DNS-based attacks. So, Nairaland is mine. 😂

presiade:
Schrödinger’s Strait of Hormuz.

Lol, I hereby declare myself the owner of Nairaland. I also declare myself the owner of one hundred million units of Zenith Bank shares, effective today. 😂

Tragicomedy

Nigerians and suffering have become inseparable. We politicize and celebrate everything.

When power is restored after an outage, people start jubilating, even though it may not last more than four hours. When children and their teachers are kidnapped and later released, we celebrate, even though it will likely happen again.

We keep celebrating things that should never have happened in the first place. Incompetence is accepted and defended. What a shame.

Meanwhile, the few who lead are living their best lives, while the poor and the brutalized are trapped in hellish conditions, arguing and fighting over meaningless pittance.

Such is life.

Jaakay:
Dont loud it, some people will be upset.🙃
Back to stocks🚶‍♂️

Some people are childish. Look at what this human being typed here. You want to weaponize other people's misfortune to paint critics of the government as bitter. I am very sure you feel nothing for those kids or what they went through. Continue.

Follow-up: If you have, say, ₦100 million in life savings (by working hard and saving aggressively in your early years), and trade responsibly, targeting 20–25% per year, which is very achievable, that works out to more than ₦1.5 million per month on average.

You can live in a cheap but decent town. No daily commuting stress, no boss controlling your time, and no restrictions on your movement. Office workers can relate, some have only 21 days of annual leave for the entire year, meaning that if you have an urgent personal matter, you're in trouble.

The best part is that most workers in Nigeria, probably more than 90%, don't earn more than ₦1 million per month.

Oga Street, what do you say?

Streetinvestor2:
Money for politics is not Money for house rent, feeding money, school fees, selling of palm oil..lol
Go and verify from imo state governor na him talk so to avoid BP
Ngx na savings account money since 2000 oh.Shoe get sizes.i hate criminals and don't associate with them

But you always criticize people who trade the NGX as their only or main business. Is there anything wrong with that? I am sure you trade too, and even if you don't, many people do.

If you buy 500 bags of cement from Dangote and sell them in your shop at a profit, how is that different from trading on the NGX? Why is one considered bad? Why do you mock people who depend on the NGX to make a living?

What makes them any different from someone who imports tokunbo cars and resells them for a profit? I genuinely want to understand your point of view.

megawealth01:
US President Donald Trump said American forces struck Kharg Island overnight but were ordered to spare its oil infrastructure because the US may "take over" the island.

"I said, 'Don't hit the pipes, just hit everything else,'" Trump said, adding "there's not a thing they can do about it."

Trump also said Iran had asked for a pause in strikes to hold Ali Khamenei's funeral and sought assurances its officials would not be killed during the ceremonies - assurances he said were given, before he accused Iran of firing missiles despite the truce it requested.

This is coming from your so called BABY TRUMP

Wrong again. Let me tell you why they are not hitting those facilities or the Iranian desalination plants. Iran has made it very clear that if the U.S. destroys any of them, the entire Middle East will lose its desalination plants as well, including those in the GCC countries that support the U.S. petrodollar system.

It is not out of pity; it is because they have backed down. The problem the U.S. is facing is Iran's missile capability. They tried to destroy it but failed. That is what is causing all this restraint from the U.S.

The U.S. was clearly warned that if it destroyed Iran's critical facilities, Middle Eastern oil infrastructure would also go. It is that simple. The U.S. does not want such a crisis on its hands.

lawani:
US, China, Russia, India, Pakistan, France, UK, North Korea, Israel can destroy any country their missiles can reach unless you have an answer to nuclear weapons. Iran too possibly has joined the rank

However the common verdict is that no industrialized country can in this age be invaded and taken over in the conventional manner by another country. I however believe the UN as a body may be able to do it but at enormous cost. It is the UN as a body that should have taken up Iran if not for China and Russia. Even if not militarily, the UN should be able to cripple any country

Britain was really never a superpower but a colonial power. They didn't have any power in Nigeria until the 1890s for instance. Superpowerdom started with the USA and it could have been predicted since they had the population and the industrial capacity early enough. Brazil too could have done it as well as the USSR because they had the potential and enough capacity also early enough but providence chose the USA. Britain never had the required population. They got the lead in capacity but their neighbors soon copied them and closed the gap then the USA replicated everything in the new world and surpassed all their rivals in population and industrial capacity

The USA will remain the USA and they will continue the work they are doing but in a proper world the chief financiers of US operations across the world will be China and India followed by the US itself and then other countries. No prosperity can be possible without security and you have to pay for your own security.

Not correct. The world had superpowers long before Britain. Rome was once a superpower. Egypt was once a superpower. Superpowers are countries or empires with vast global influence. The U.S. was not the first.

I don't understand what you are saying. Nigeria was a colony of Britain. Do you understand what a colony is? It means Nigeria was forced to surrender part of its wealth and resources to Britain, not through trade, but by force.

There is no greater security threat than countries trying to seize other nations' resources by force or through manipulation, something the U.S. has also done in various parts of the world. The U.S. has benefited from exploiting other countries for its own growth.

Check out all the wars the U.S. has fought. Almost all of them have been remote wars, where it attacks another country from afar. I would like to see the U.S. fight a country that has the capability to strike the U.S. mainland. Let the U.S. experience a little of the destruction it has been imposing on others.

That is why it would be very difficult for the U.S. to attack countries with comparable capabilities. As it bombs them, they would also be bombing and destroying parts of the U.S.

It is weaker countries that the U.S. fights. Just look through history.

Streetinvestor2:
It will lose the super power status to which country in your imagination. Is it to Russia or China make I laugh small

I don't know. China is already a superpower. The U.S. cannot defeat China in a one-on-one confrontation, do your findings.

When Britain was the world's superpower, could anyone have predicted that the U.S. would be next?

Besides, the world can exist without a single superpower. Or is that not possible in your imagination?

Streetinvestor2:
I this agree they attacked Iran because they don't like the faces.
Iran as a country was housing different terrorist groups and supporting others in other countries. I will always believe what ever Israel says as the truth

Alright.