₦airaland Forum

Agbalowomeri:
Una sure say people never see ACCESS dividend? The way this 26 has been holding for a while is suspect

Is 26 not -9% plus? Do you expect it to hit -15%? Lol.

HesInMe:
I've never really understood why people care so much about share count when comparing valuation across firms. It's utterly meaningless on its own.

Value is value whether you syndicate it with 1,000 shares or 1 billion shares. Surely investors can do the simple arithmetic.

Because share quantity counts a lot, the fewer the shares, the easier(faster) it is for a stock to move, simply due to the law of demand and supply (or scarcity, or whatever term you choose to give it). I guess, as an investor, you might find it hard to understand.

Look at Airtel Africa as an extreme case: the fair value of Airtel Africa is far above its current share price, but because the free-floating shares are so few, there isn’t enough available to move the price. The same applies if you have too many shares in circulation with too many people holding them, movement will be slower as well.

yMcy56:
Hope say you never dirty your eyes this Nigerian morning? 😁
Did you read my post you quoted well?

I said looking at the OS alone.....and you mentioned % ownership, of which I said it's true and that of BUACEM could be a subject of manipulations.... possibly, so what's the ommision here now? 🙄

Don't be a sour woman.

Itzlinda:
It is likely to drop another 10% tomorrow.

I really wished I have fund to scoop tomorrow

Yes, I agree with you, it has started seeing buyers gradually. Almost one billion naira has been traded so far. I project 1.5 billion to 2 billion by the end of today.

unite4real:
its even around 95% if you add the direct and indirect.

That’s it. That OS is not traded at all. The remaining 5% is what you see moving prices. If WAPCO starts acting anyhow, BUA will respond in kind, lol.

yMcy56:
Well, yes, that the advantage BUA has over them......Price can be manipulated.

Lol, instead of admitting you overlooked something in your comparison, you chose to put it this way.

So BUA can manipulate prices but WAPCO cannot? Funny how reasoning gets weird when you choose sides.

yMcy56:
BUACEMENT has 34bn OS
WAPCO has 16bn OS

Just considering the OS alone, WAPCO should catch up with BUACEMENT.......na my ghetto analysis be this 😁

How much of that OS is in the hands of retail traders for both companies? I heard BUA Chairman controls more than 75% of BUA, that’s OS that never trades.

welzyj2:
Wapco is really going after Buacement o

That is why you should buy some BUA, 400 to 500 is likely.

KarlTom:
17.40

Don't be a sour man.

Payunsin:
Wan has to be careful about information here oo. U almost get high BP yesterday concerning ucap result about annualised or not annualised EPS.
Thank God the market us reacting positively as at now ooo

Please don’t downplay my winning stance. I told those sour men that UCAP was going up.

KarlTom:
ARADEL officially ₦1840 (+ ₦160)

UCAP is officially at 17.85, lol.

KarlTom:
Ding!

Did you see that? Within minutes of opening, half a billion Naira has already been traded in UBA. Today will be a long day, lol.

Itzlinda:
What you saw is Other Comprehensive Income (OCI). I think it is not the same thing as operational loss. The bank made $142.5 million profit after tax this quarter, up 16% from last year. Profit is profit.
What dragged the comprehensive income down is forex translation loss — meaning when they converted their operations across 39 African countries back to USD, the naira and other currencies weakened against dollar, so the numbers looked bad on paper. E no mean money lost.

Thank you, Madam Linda, for this. Some people want this bear market by fire by force, lol.

Agbalowomeri:
Abi I never wake up

Abi no be comprehensive loss I dey see so?

When FVOCI is negative, it becomes a significant part of the company’s books, but when it is positive, you want to wave it away as paper profit, lol.

ETI actually did well across the board, remember, FVOCI is not yet realized.

Capitas7:
My thinking is that this revaluation does not yield cash flow until these instruments are disposed of. If my thinking is correct, then it means the EPS is cushioned by an items that aren't really income. The statement of cash flow also shows that the results are flat at best.

That is what I think, but I'd like to understand why you consider this a good result.

UCAP seems to be in the phase that can be likened to "diminishing returns". This does not mean that the company is not profitable, but that earnings growth has slowed very significantly if there is growth at all.

These gains are indeed unrealized, but you’re missing something important. There are two types of fair value gains here: FVTPL (₦3.5 billion) and FVTOCI (₦19.9 billion). Only the FVTPL is included in EPS because it represents trading (income statement) gains, while the FVTOCI is not and relates relates to long-term investments.

For Q1, I think it’s still early to meaningfully assess cash flow trends, but, most important, there is clear growth in operating revenue and an expansion in fee income.

Then, the ₦19.9 billion FVTOCI gain comes from equity appreciation in Q1. Isn’t that significant, given that this is part of their core business as an asset management firm?

Me and you (if you hold long-term investments) have enjoyed capital appreciation in the stock market. Some guy celebrated his one-billion-naira milestone in the market few days ago, is that not value, even though it’s not realized? Why is it now mere paper profit for UCAP but a source of pride for you and me when we see those huge gains?

pluto09:
Has anyone said UCAP cannot do 30 to 50% in no distant future?
Based on annualized 2.2 that is very possible but it would be out of place for someone to be making calculations based on annualized EPS of N8.

That was an error in someone else’s calculation; I don’t see how it’s connected to me.

Streetinvestor2:
My bad I didn't know it was #2 plus.I thought it was annualised of #8 plus

They are paying ₦1==> ₦0.70 that was paid on Saturday, plus an additional ₦0.30.

KarlTom:
Dear StreetInvestor,
Don't be too sure...

Lol, because you sold. Did you see Ellah Lakes? It has no revenue yet, lost a bid for a major upgrade, and still wasn’t decimated. How do you think UBA, a bank with a solid, profitable business, will be decimated?

Lol, once it reaches a good junction, institutions will come for it. Like I said, it’s retail investors that are dumping.

Leave Agba, who has refused to update the lens through which he views the NGX, this is a totally different market regime from what existed 10 to 15 years ago.

Streetinvestor2:
He knows it is annualised. He only did multiple of different yrs like someone does in his common sense strategy
If they can deliver such annualised eps.That will be wonderful. That means dividend of 3 -4 is possible for 2026

Lol, that UCAP own, I’ll come back here to announce it when it hits 30–50%. As usual, they’ll all go silent or claim they called it long ago. Lol

pluto09:
Na night school some of us attend
It is good we have people like you on the forum who sabi English well well

The English no carry now, but if my clear statement is hard for you to understand, then imagine how upside down your understanding of the financials must be.


Na joke ooo.

pluto09:
We are saying the same thing nau .
Na you they speak English

Okay, one-liner comments can have multiple meanings, so I had to clarify.

Agbalowomeri:
Lol dem don dey incorporate fair value gained

pluto09:
You see am too

Look well, their equity and debt instruments have been revalued upward, this has nothing to do with today’s rush by retail traders to sell UBA.

KarlTom:
UCAP Q1 '26
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46775_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2026.pdf

Good result. Fair value lies between 17 and 34 naira, with an average around 25 naira. It is a buy at the current price. It may not double your money, but you could achieve a 30–50% return even if you invest 500 million.

ositadima1:
Not really. If you consider that it traded over 43 million units on Friday, about 37 million the day before, and over 55 million the day before that, you’ll see that 200 million is not really a big number. Last week, it traded more than 250 million units.

The problem is that no buyers want it at the current price, combined with panic selling from retail investors. Let the price drop percents, and either most of those offers will disappear or buyers will come back to absorb them.

Learn something from this: not all offers (or even bids) are real. When the stock starts trading normally, most of them will disappear.

Remember Ellah Lakes, after the failed cash raise, people swooped in the next day and offers were everywhere. A learner would have thought it would be trading at below ₦5 by now. Leave all this drama; I’ve seen enough of the market to know this is just volatility from retail investors.

Note that I don’t have a single unit of UBA; I’ve been more of a Zenith guy since 2020.

Sunrisepebble:
I think this is what he should do tbh. Tomorrow he should buy like 100-200mn units and put out a disclosure. Only thing that can save the share price. Just like Adaora did with Zenith last year.
200mn+ offers is crazy

Not really. If you consider that it traded over 43 million units on Friday, about 37 million the day before, and over 55 million the day before that, you’ll see that 200 million is not really a big number. Last week, it traded more than 250 million units.

The problem is that no buyers want it at the current price, combined with panic selling from retail investors. Let the price drop percents, and either most of those offers will disappear or buyers will come back to absorb them.

Learn something from this: not all offers (or even bids) are real. When the stock starts trading normally, most of them will disappear.

godlyguy:
Nobody wants to buy UBA

The truth is that many people want to buy UBA, but not at its current price. Let it drop a bit, and you’ll see massive bids come in. They’re on the sidelines waiting for a good bargain, it will surge once the price is right.

Days like this are the kind where you buy at the lowest point of the day and sell at the highest, pocketing 20%. Look at what is happening with most bank stocks.

HesInMe:
This is a bit unfair na. Understanding broader industry dynamics makes one a better investor -- even if you don't own a particular stock in the sector. Allows you benchmark performance, understand the story behind the numbers, and make better read-through from one stock to another. I don't own BUACEM, but see me wow-ing at their performance.

There was an earlier post that assumed that because cost was relatively constant, it meant volume was also constant. Such a conclusion is hasty and misleading.

In an equation like X + Y + Z = 5, Y can take many values and still maintain the result of 5 if Z varies accordingly, even when X remains constant.

What I’m saying is that volume can actually increase even when total cost appears unchanged. Did he consider that energy costs dropped from ₦74 billion in the previous year to ₦67 billion?

The narrative in his post implied that WAPCO’s volume was increasing while these two stagnated, which is misleading.

Sunrisepebble:
In their presentations and analyst calls for FY25. Bua is the only that didn’t disclose their volumes.
2025 vs 2024
Dangote 17.68mt vs 17.68mt
Lafarge 6.3mt vs 5.8mt

So because they did not disclose volumes, you assumed volume was stagnant? Higher prices (inflation or pricing power) and higher volume are both legitimate sources of growth. Why do I feel you’re looking for justification to promote Lafarge above these two giants?

BUA’s bulk cement revenue increased from less than a billion to ₦14 billion, while revenue from bagged cement also increased, though not by as much.

KarlTom:
UACN & PZ

I’ve been fully invested in PZ, gidigba; let’s see how far it goes.

.