₦airaland Forum

Days like this are the kind where you buy at the lowest point of the day and sell at the highest, pocketing 20%. Look at what is happening with most bank stocks.

HesInMe:
This is a bit unfair na. Understanding broader industry dynamics makes one a better investor -- even if you don't own a particular stock in the sector. Allows you benchmark performance, understand the story behind the numbers, and make better read-through from one stock to another. I don't own BUACEM, but see me wow-ing at their performance.

There was an earlier post that assumed that because cost was relatively constant, it meant volume was also constant. Such a conclusion is hasty and misleading.

In an equation like X + Y + Z = 5, Y can take many values and still maintain the result of 5 if Z varies accordingly, even when X remains constant.

What I’m saying is that volume can actually increase even when total cost appears unchanged. Did he consider that energy costs dropped from ₦74 billion in the previous year to ₦67 billion?

The narrative in his post implied that WAPCO’s volume was increasing while these two stagnated, which is misleading.

Sunrisepebble:
In their presentations and analyst calls for FY25. Bua is the only that didn’t disclose their volumes.
2025 vs 2024
Dangote 17.68mt vs 17.68mt
Lafarge 6.3mt vs 5.8mt

So because they did not disclose volumes, you assumed volume was stagnant? Higher prices (inflation or pricing power) and higher volume are both legitimate sources of growth. Why do I feel you’re looking for justification to promote Lafarge above these two giants?

BUA’s bulk cement revenue increased from less than a billion to ₦14 billion, while revenue from bagged cement also increased, though not by as much.

KarlTom:
UACN & PZ

I’ve been fully invested in PZ, gidigba; let’s see how far it goes.

.

jckgroup1:
N1000

Hmmm, na now una wake up. When I tell una when price dey 400-something, una bone me. When I sell total I even tell una say na DangCem I dey buy ooo make I top up. No wahala. When dem start export to Caribbean countries, una go see how far.

Na joke ooo.

Payunsin:
But as investor too can you also sustain life by holding stockfor 2 years.

The benchmark should be initial capital should be more than inflation rate whether trading or otherwise.

I think it’s much harder, especially over a two-year period. Why? Because a stock may gain 100% or more, but the dividend, which is what sustains you, rarely grows at the same rate. Some people may hold stocks worth 100 million naira, yet the dividend may not even reach 6 million naira.

So, to some investors, it’s just about celebrating large portfolio values that don’t generate much income, more like something for bragging rights. The funny thing is that the size of the portfolio seems more important to them than the returns it produces(wating dey enter pocket while hustling). Just my opinion, though.

yMcy56:
Someone mentioned a target here, you can use that as yardstick..
Me I'm a trader, can't predict my own target or movement.
Any price above 1k, I fit port.

Haaa, You don chop well-well for this market ooo, since 2010. I salute ooo.

yMcy56:
Just ask me my opinion on DANGCEM, issa simple stuff. 😊
My DANGCEM is 805 and some kobo, less than 806 in cost sha.
Don't ask me the quantity anyway. 😁
If you want to buy, pick some and be very patient with it.
I've mentioned it recently here too.

I mentioned that in an earlier post, maybe you didn’t see it, so I assumed you didn’t want to share your target price. It’s okay.

yMcy56:
Very well said 😁
Shey you wan give the fund ni?
Your percentage gain will be very good 😊

What about DangCem, abi you dey fear?

yMcy56:
Let me be a good Nigerian first by asking you if you planned to give me the capital needed to rely solely on trading......😊

Meanwhile, I hope you know some Ogas don't do dividends at all and they're trading with multi-millions?

It depends on what my own gains would be, lol.

I think if you have about 70 to 80 million, you can live better than some top administrators in the civil service, if you target a minimum of 20–25% annually (Based on your experience and level of skill). What do you think?

yMcy56:
* ACCESS wey I don sell today and renter small back @.... 😊

I have a few questions, feel free not to answer if they’re too personal. Can you sustain your lifestyle on trading alone? If not, would that be possible with more capital? Roughly how much capital would you need to rely solely on trading?

yMcy56:
Note the word "Some" and "Investing" as mentioned in the post.

I'm a trader, so I based mine on daily price movements.....
But also note that traders don't wait for huge percentage gain before exiting....
* Traders can exit and enter as many times as possible too......
* A serious Trader should therefore register with live trade brokers and be able to monitor price movements closely.....

But you’re also an investor, since some of your points focus on value stocks that can appreciate in the long run, like DangCem you mentioned yesterday. What is your target for DangCem?

yMcy56:
Don't mind them...
I knowingly didn't post updates on it because it seems some people just based their investing on daily price movements....

I also believe ACCESS will get to 40......
Although this will be seriously premised on good dividend for this financial year end......if looking at short term....
Long term with bullish market, Access should reach 40

And you don’t do that? Seriously?

Also note that the PZ Cussons result is a mixed bag. They generated a large portion of this EPS from the sale of part of the business resources, which is a non-recurring windfall, although their earnings from the core business also improved.

eziokwunwoko:
Ostitadima1: Good evening, pls your earlier fair value of PZ at N115. Based on Q3 results released of EPS of 9.40. Does this fair value still stand.
Appreciate your response

Yes, based on my Monte Carlo dividend valuation with Q3 in view, the worst case is ₦95, the best case is ₦185, and the average case is ₦134. So ₦115 is still quite reasonable.

Note that the dividend valuation model generates a distribution of values, from worst to best and everything in between, based on the dividend input. In this case, I assumed 50% of annualized EPS.

Let’s see how it goes, it may take weeks or months, and the position could change when the audited results come out.

emmanuelewumi:
Time and compounding will do the rest if you start early.


Na our so called smartness and not keeping things simple that does not allow majority of us to build wealth in the market.

What exactly does “keeping things simple” mean? Why do you think people in Technical Analysis aren’t making money? Do you have any data or poll to support the claim that TA has never produced outsized returns in the market?

You keep repeating that making billions is possible, did anyone even argue that it isn’t? You describe yourself as a “simple investor,” whatever that means, and it works for you. So why are you constantly attacking people who approach things differently?

We’ve had this argument before, about simple math versus more sophisticated methods. Do you have any real evidence that TA doesn’t work? Don’t bring quotes from Meta AI, that’s one of the least reliable AI. Bring actual proof. If you can’t, stick to what you know and let others operate their own way.

And regarding the person you’re defending, the attention-seeking behavior is obvious.

Streetinvestor2:
So we should believe this your own motivational claim..lol
You just joined ngx in 2021 if I am not wrong by your previous post.
And you have achieved this motivational success as you call it.
And people who have done 15 yr and above motivational success is now fake.

Na only one audio billionaire I sabi for this thread..lol.This is because he claims everything and every stock here from inception of ngx.Then he warehouse junks and comes to do MH for them here

Read my posts again, there is nowhere I said his post was fake. What I said is that he is always seeking attention. I believe you can tell the difference; if not, there’s no need to continue this conversation.

Streetinvestor2:
Whr u belong in this 3 class is a concern . It could be the reason why envy dey your body. This should be the third time I have noticed it from u on this thread on different people..lol

You have posted achievements here based on what you claimed as sophisticated TA tools and nobody wan commit suicide.

Lol, I have never posted any extraordinary achievements here, can you point to the post? Instead, I have given real picks countless times, which is what this thread should be about, not unnecessarily telling us that my father was a wealthy farmer.

I have posted picks and analyses, both TA- and FA-based, that have made people some money. I have never claimed to have turned 1 million into 100 million either.

Streetinvestor2:
Whr u belong in this 3 class is a concern. It could be the reason why envy dey your body. This should be the third times I have noticed it from u on this thread

I am proudly in the middle; I have enough to live comfortably.

presiade:
Pure normal distribution without any skewness .

Skewness fit dey ooo, when things are not allowed to go naturally. For example, most people in politics have criminal tendencies. Why? Because bad politicians do not allow the normal voting process to take place.

Agbalowomeri:
You carry Gaussian curve enter here

But it is true, you don’t need to know what something is to feel its effects. From height to longevity, everything follows a distribution. Why would someone insinuate that I am in denial when I know this very well and see it practically every day?

It goes to show how small-minded some people are. Maybe I hurt his feelings in one of my posts, lol.

Streetinvestor2:
Your type fit give your neighbour rat medicine if you notice he don begin chop better food pass u..This you have shown at different times

When I know that success, or whatever you’re implying, is like a bell distribution, with people at the low and high extremes and most in the middle, why would that be a problem for me? In all human endeavors, even in school, there is a distribution of ability.

So how does this nonsense you typed translate into pointing out devious behaviors like attention-seeking? Attention-seeking disguised as motivational encouragement.

Agbalowomeri:
People will be scammed anyway regardless

I don’t think this particular person is a scammer; I see him more as an attention-seeking, ego-boosting fellow, lol. I remember one of his many posts where he was praising U.S. stocks, what he called the “Magnificent 7” or something, and the Trading 212 brokerage.

Right after that, someone asked how they could start using Trading 212, and his response was that they had stopped registering Nigerians for years. So what was the bloody point of writing a long epistle praising Trading 212 when it’s almost useless to anyone who might want to go down that path?

Agbalowomeri:
Yes na but that one is indirect effect and it's allowed as long as it doesn't become tangential. I think that is where the problem lies

The problem lies in definition, your definition of topic relevance is different from mine. Either you allow any discussion that can be linked to NGX stocks, or you limit it to the original intent of the thread. If you no gree na war be that.

Agbalowomeri:
I don't think I agree with you on this. We differ in our approach to things. Posting such achievements is also a motivation to what is achievable to confirm or refute some strategies on the long game. I won't do such but that doesn't mean I disapprove. It is still stock pick related if I say I bought X for Y naira and for Z reasons and after 10 years, look at the exponential growth.

Then me posting about the war in Iran is also appropriate, because its effects are felt on the NGX as well. Anybody can post anything as long as they can link it back to Nigerian stocks, directly or indirectly.

nosa2:
I have noticed that none of these super profitable moves are posted the day they are made. Why tell us you bought something and it did 10x when you didn't tell us the day you bought it and for the price you bought it.

For me the philosophy behind all this audio trades is fraud. They are looking for people to come and meet them to manage money for them.

I believe myself to be an above average analyst when it comes to picking out investments, I post my trades the day I make them. I don't do it so I can manage money for anybody (If you give me your money I will use it to eat suya). I post my trades here because I intend to show what is possible with good analysis, then I intend to stop posting here and post exclusively on www.ngxforum.com . If you want to keep having the discussions like that you are free to come and meet me there.

To all the people who know how to post historical super trades congrats. But if you want people to believe that you know what you are doing, post what you do the day you do it. If you cant do that then you are no different from Bernie


P.S I know two people on this thread who are billionaires, one has a portfolio of about N7b the other about N2b. none of them will come and be announcing themselves for security reasons

This makes a lot of sense because people can choose to follow it and benefit from it. The funny thing is, that is the essence of the thread called "Nigeria Stock Exchange market picks". That’s why when people say I’m derailing, I just laugh and move on, well over 95% of what is posted here has nothing to do with the clear purpose of the thread.

Coming here to post Easter goats or talk about how ₦100k invested ten years ago is now ₦100 million is totally outside the real essence of the thread. We need to get back on track: post a stock and explain why you think it’s worth buying. Anything else is technically off-topic.

Just as I was asked to open a new thread, others can do the same for those kinds of posts.

Mankind2024:
My brother, I’m actually surprised by your comment.
"You and your so-called proud gang cannot prevent me from sharing my real-life investment experiences on this forum. True consistency will always outperform your sophisticated technical analysis formulas.
This is a faceless forum. No one knows me, and I don’t know anyone here personally. I didn’t post my milestone to seek attention or impress strangers I will never meet. I shared it deliberately to motivate and encourage aspiring investors who are still struggling on this journey — the same way others’ testimonies once encouraged me.
If celebrating a hard-earned milestone after years of discipline, patience, and learning from legends like Buffett and Munger makes me an “attention seeker,” then so be it.
Some people come to this forum to learn and grow. Others come to mock and tear down. It’s clear which category you belong to.
I wish you well. When you eventually cross your own milestone, I hope no one mocks you the way you just mocked others.

Yours is too much. Wasn’t it you who posted your Easter goat, or Sallah goat, and many other unnecessary things?

Looking for attention is fine if it’s kept in check. This is my opinion, and I’m entitled to share it.

olaremint:
Is it your attention? At least it’s thought provoking than the political jargons being peddled here

A friend of a friend who is into all this forex stuff turned ₦500k into ₦18 million on the NGX and documented it (each block represents the percentage return for the month). See the monthly return chart he showed me below. Is this possible?

Mankind2024:
I have never recommended any specific stock to anyone.
What I personally prioritise are companies that truly care about their minority shareholders and have clear, long-term plans for value creation. In other words, I look for management teams that carry shareholders along and consistently reward them with good dividends.

Lol, attention seeker. What’s the next milestone? It won’t be long before you come back with another attention-seeking epistle. Always craving attention, it’s alright.

Another thing before I go to sleep: the NGX is quite slow to react to news and fundamentals, both negative and positive. That is one big secret.

If a stock is going to make a strong move, the kind that “enters the bus and locks the doors”, it would have given signals long before. In my six years in the NGX, I have never seen a stock just zoom like that. It will first “shake its body” and call for passengers before moving. The problem is that when it is calling, most of us do nothing because of fear and uncertainty. By the time it starts moving, it’s already too late, or it has gone too far.

I bought Zenith between 17 and 20 on average, and I saw it hit its milestones one after another, each with clear warnings. I saw it get to 30, then 40, 60, 80, 100, etc. None of those moves were sudden, each level gave ample time for entry. That is the beauty of the NGX.