₦airaland Forum

awesomeJ:
The good thing about mentioning your mistakes to you is that you already know I'm right no matter how much you refuse to admit or do useless back and forths.


I advise you to use your time for something more productive.

You can bask on in the delusion of thinking you bought fuel for N900 last month, it wouldn't change the fact that you're only just hallucinating or being stubborn.

So, you have no proof that I am wrong. Okay, prove me wrong when you have the facts.

As things stand, we are both making estimates.

awesomeJ:
But in your response too, you explicitly stated that "profit calculation is something else, we would need cost of crude to determine that..."

So you knew it was revenue, yet you used maliciously wrong figures, now when he called you out, instead of admitting your mistakes, you're saying someone can make one million revenue and not make profit, is that the point The point is about revenue and about you retracting the very wrong estimates you made while trying to push unnecessary corrections to his figures.

I ask you which figure he was referring to: profit or revenue? As far as I’m concerned, presenting an estimate as fact is misleading. Can you provide evidence of the actual transactions?

So, how can you prove that my estimate is wrong? Provide verifiable evidence, and I will accept that my estimate is wrong. If you can’t, I advise you to rest.

GeneralDae:
Because mine is way closer to the fact than yours and based on actual numbers we can verify in September ie Dangote did not sell at 900 naira per litre in September but definitely between 1300 and 1350 per litre on average. Naira did not average 1500/$ in September but definitely around 1325 - 1350/$ making $0.98 sales more plausible.

No, it isn’t. Provide relevant evidence to support your figure, including the estimates for the other non-petroleum products you included. Until you do that, what you presented remains an estimate and should be treated as such, not as fact. I have nothing more to add.

GeneralDae:
So you admit you were wrong in your calculation right? That’s the first step. Everyone who can read would know from my first post on the sales in September based on my quotation of the NMPDRA report that I was writing about revenue. Nowhere did I mention profit in my write up but you would clearly see revenue in my prior post.
I can say MTN made 5 trillion naira as revenue. That doesn’t mean it’s Gross or Net profit and everyone with eyes who read my prior post to that would know that $3.1 Billion made by the firm was revenue.

How is this complicated for you?

You are asking for the calculation and I just gave you the calculation in this post you quoted where I debunked your calculation because you used 900 naira per litre and 1500/$ to arrive at your figure. So you are the one who’s clearly wrong. Rather than admit that, you ignored it to debate revenue and profit.

Your wrong calculation wasn’t it based on revenue? It means you knew I was writing about revenue from the beginning so why the gaslighting?

My friend, you can’t call my calculation wrong, just as I can’t call yours wrong, because they are both estimates. The difference between us is that I clearly stated mine was an estimate, while you presented yours as fact when you celebrated and said, “Business is good for Alhaji.”

Learn not to present estimates as facts, so you don’t end up misleading people.

GeneralDae:
You used 900 naira per litre and 1500/$ for September 2026, yet you are the one calling me a liar?

For Petrol my AI added 28.5 million to 15.47 million litres to get around 43 million litres. You then multiply that by 30 days to get approximately 1.32 Billion litres of petrol alone that was sold. Multiply that by an average cost price of $0.98 per litre or 1310 naira per litre (not 900 naira per litre) to get around $1.29 Billion realized as revenue from petrol sales alone in September.

You said, and I quote, "Dangote made $3.1 Billion from these products in September only." Now you are sneakily bringing in revenue, LOL, lying and passing it off as fact. Show us the full calculation; let's see it. By the way, do you know that I can make one million Naira in revenue and still end up with less than 100 thousand Naira in profit?

GeneralDae:
Based on this information, my AI estimates that Dangote made $3.1 Billion from these products in September only.

Business is good for Alhaji

Show the AI's worked-out calculation; let's see how $3.1 billion was made in September alone. Stop lying with your tongue.

Let's do the maths using reasonable assumptions.

September petrol revenue estimate (30 days):

• Domestic sales: 28.5m litres/day × 30 × ₦900/litre = ₦769.5bn.

• Exports: 15.47m litres/day × 30 × $0.70/litre = $324.87m.

Assuming an exchange rate of ₦1,500/$, domestic sales equal $513m.

Estimated total petrol revenue: $838m for September.

This excludes diesel, aviation fuel and other products. It also assumes the stated volumes were sold at the assumed prices.

Profit is a different calculation. We would need crude oil/feedstock costs, refining and operating expenses, logistics, financing and other costs to estimate net profit.

Therefore, the $3.1bn claim cannot be established from the petrol figures alone.

BullBearMkt:
...well I love to provide data & no be dem say, dem say. If Morrocco, Egypt & SA, that are top market along with Nigeria, do not show "wonderful" performance in their stock market, but Kenya does, it might indicate money rotation. Monies might be rotating from the top 4 to the lesser performing markets which obviously Kenya is one of them.

Unfortunately, I struggle to find Kenya stock market index on the platform I'm using, I would have shown it.

Your application of the data is wrong. In percentage terms, relative to its own baseline, Nigeria performed very well. However, since we are comparing different countries, you need to express the data for all of them in the same unit to make a fair comparison.

BullBearMkt:
Chart of 3 other African countries with robust stock market

I hope you understand what is wrong here. Simply presenting a chart without making the proper adjustments can lead you astray. Did you account for devaluation?

The growth you're seeing is expressed in naira, which has been devalued significantly. To make a fair comparison, you need to put all the countries on a common basis before plotting the data. That means converting each data point into its dollar equivalent at the time (the dollar has also lost value, but it is still a relatively useful benchmark) and then plotting the results.

Let's see if we still get that parabolic upward curve after making these adjustments.

Wotowotoman:
Who told you he doesn’t need the money? He needs that money like mad. You think say e easy to be building that kind of facility in Nigeria? Do you know how much debt he is in because of that project? I can bet you that if he had to do it over again, he would never have got himself involved in a refinery project of that scale.

Clearly, the retail offer was never oversubscribed as they wanted people to believe. Have you ever seen any billionaire businessman begging ordinary retail investors to come and invest in a business that is churning out cash? Think am well.

Why would he want more retail vs institutional investors? Retail investors are not as powerful as institutionals can be and the fact that retail investors are dispersed means he will maintain control.

By the way, no billionaire has his billions in cash. Haba. They keep some F U money probably like 100 million in liquid investments and the rest are in all kinds of assets.

LOL, we are saying the same thing. The real reason the PO was extended is that he did not reach his target.

Leave all the emotional banter here; I don't even bother reading some posts anymore. Someone was saying here that he didn't need money from retail investors. That was what made me explain that the guy needs money. Some of the projects he wants to start in other African countries will require plenty of cash, and going the loan route would put him at a major disadvantage. Hence, the sale of assets. More assets will be sold.

Billionaire na for assets, no be for bank. So, anybody who says he doesn't need money is still a learner.

Streetinvestor2:
You dey believe all that stories about oversubscription before extension of the offer.
All the people who I know before the offer
None participated again. including church members and civil servants

Dangote extending the PO is more likely, given the undersubscription. I read somewhere here that he doesn't need the money as much as he needs shareholders.

I don't think people understand how Dangote operates. They assume he has billions sitting around to spend, but that's not the case. Most of Dangote's wealth is tied up in assets. I would bet that over 90% of his Forbes net worth is in assets rather than cash.

From what I've observed, he builds a company, sells part of his stake to raise funds for his next company or investment, and repeats the process. The funding for all the projects he's planning across Africa will have to come from somewhere.

I believe more shares in Dangote Refinery will be sold, either through a PO or other means. Take note.

emmanuelewumi:
I think Nigerian traders are beginning to reap the fruit of the seed they have been sowing.

I don't believe China woke up one morning and said, “Let's go and start selling directly to Nigerians.”

Think about it o.

You travel from Nigeria to China. You spend money on flights, accommodation, logistics, agents and importation. You go there to buy goods from Chinese manufacturers.

Then you bring those goods back to Nigeria and sell them to Nigerians.

Now the same manufacturers are beginning to establish stronger footprints in Nigeria and sell closer to the final consumer.

Why should they bother or spend so much money to enter your country if the reason for their coming is same as why you come to them in their own country in the first place?


I still feel Nigerian importers are eating what they sowed.

At some point, you have to ask yourself: what exactly did we think would happen?

There is an Igbo saying:
“Onye kpatara nkụ ahụhụ, ọ ga-ata ya.”

It means - "When you bring home a bundle of firewood filled with ants, you shouldn't be surprised when the ants eventually bite you."

Nigerian importers and businessmen are not being honest to themselves.

For years, many traders went to China and specifically requested cheaper, lower-quality versions of products because they believed Nigerians would rather buy something cheap than something original.

“Make it cheaper.”
“Remove this.”
“Use this material instead.”
“Give me the one for the Nigerian market.”

The Chinese manufacturer is a businessmen too. If you ask for a cheaper product, they will produce a cheaper product.

Then the product gets to Nigeria and suddenly everything becomes “China fake.”

Even down to the medicines that have led to increase of health risks and problems in the country.



A product that costs ₦20,000 lands in Nigeria at, say, ₦35,000 after logistics and other costs per product, then somebody puts ₦100,000 on it.

₦100,000 yet it's substandard.

Not that the product suddenly became three times better, but somewhere along the chain, somebody decided that the Nigerian consumer must carry the entire burden of the margin.

For you to get the original stuff, you'd pay exorbitant prices.


This is not me saying every Nigerian trader is guilty of this. Far from it.

There are hardworking Nigerian importers who are providing genuine value, taking enormous risks and operating on very thin margins.

But there is also a culture of overpricing, counterfeiting, poor quality and excessive middlemen margins that cannot simply be blamed on China.

And now the market is responding.

China is already Nigeria's biggest import source. In the first half of 2026 alone, Nigeria imported ₦11.01 trillion worth of goods from China, representing 39.27% of total imports.

So when Chinese businesses increasingly move closer to the Nigerian consumer, manufacture locally, establish distribution networks or sell more directly, we shouldn't look at the development only through emotion.


We should ask:

What made this market attractive enough for them to come here in the first place?

Because businesses follow money.

They follow demand.

They follow gaps.

They follow inefficiencies.

And sometimes, they eventually enter the space occupied by the middlemen who created those inefficiencies.

That is the part of this conversation many people don't want to discuss.


Yes, there are serious disadvantages.

If foreign companies increasingly control manufacturing, distribution and retail in Nigeria, local businesses can face intense competition. It can affect jobs, local enterprise and domestic industrial development if Nigeria doesn't have the right policies and safeguards.

And that is where government has a major responsibility.

A country cannot simply watch its market transform without asking what happens to local manufacturers, traders, workers and consumers.


But Nigerian businesses owners also have responsibilities.

You cannot spend years exploiting a gap in the market and then become angry when somebody eventually comes to close that gap.

If your customer can buy the same product directly from the manufacturer for significantly less, eventually the middleman has to justify his existence.

That's capitalism.

The solution isn't to shout “China is taking over Nigeria.”

The bigger question is:

Why are we making it so easy for somebody else to take over the market?

Why aren't we building stronger Nigerian brands?

Why aren't we manufacturing?

Why aren't we competing on quality?

Why do we still have businesses whose entire advantage is simply “I know somebody in China”?


The big question is:
Why should a Nigerian consumer pay premium prices for an inferior product simply because it passed through five Nigerian middlemen?

We need to have this conversation without sentiment.

China isn't the only problem.

Government isn't the only problem.

Traders aren't the only problem.

Consumers aren't completely innocent either.

We have created an ecosystem where cheap products are demanded, cheap products are supplied, products are marked up heavily, counterfeits circulate freely, and everybody points fingers when the consequences arrive.

Bethel Onyema.

I see at least four distinct arguments:

1. Nigeria should manufacture rather than import.

2. Some Nigerian importers deliberately source cheap/substandard goods and sell them at large markups.

3. Nigeria's policy environment allows/encourages Chinese firms to enter and operate closer to the consumer.

4. Therefore, Nigerian traders/importers have somehow caused or deserve the Chinese displacement.

The conclusion does not automatically follow from the first three.

Several different economic questions are blended together and then a causal conclusion is smuggled in. Very Bad.

lawani:
How much is coca cola in the US?
How much is it in Nigeria?
How much is beer in the US?
How much is it in Nigeria?
How much is PMS in the US?
Use the same formula to calculate what PMS cost should normally be in Nigeria?
And everything can even up at any time

I presented what I think is an objective calculation. It is not a post for or against buying the shares.

What I can tell you is that refinery returns don’t grow over time like those of most other businesses. Once you reach full capacity, revenue gets stuck, much like utility companies. However, the payout is consistent and relatively predictable.

The way I think revenue could grow is if the naira continues to devalue.

Now, the question is: can the expansion be done without major dilution? Without the expansion, at an 80% payout ratio, I would expect about a 6% yield.

Another thing is that because the earnings are in dollars partly, we may see increased dividends in naira terms due to further depreciation of the naira. Yes, I think the naira will continue to depreciate over time; it probably doesn’t matter who wins the election, whether APC or another party.

Are there stocks with better yields?

Streetinvestor2:
I just laugh at the maths this man applied. God will keep us alive. He said your 5k investment will give you 300k in 2 or 3 yrs..How can he make such bogus statement from that H2 2026 results
When the market woman goes to buy 10 units and hoping to see such in 3 yrs and it never happens. They will see stocks as all those scam like MMM etc

Here is a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation projecting the long-term Yield on Cost for holders who stay invested until the refinery reaches its full expansion capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd).

1. Core Inputs & Assumptions:
* H1 2026 Net Profit: ₦2.5 Trillion
* Phase 1 Annualized Profit (~700k bpd): ₦2.5T × 2 = ₦5.0 Trillion
* Phase 2 Capacity Scaling (1.4m bpd): ₦5.0T × 2 = ₦10.0 Trillion annual net profit
* IPO Price: ₦525 per share
* IPO Shares Offered: 4.1 Billion shares (~3.3% equity float)
* Assumed Payout Ratio: 80%

2. Step-by-Step Math:
A. Total Shares Outstanding

Total Shares = 4.1B / 0.033 = ~124.24 Billion shares

B. Projected Earnings Per Share (EPS at 1.4m bpd)

EPS = ₦10.0 Trillion / 124.24 Billion shares = ₦80.49 per share

C. Projected Dividend Per Share (DPS at 80% Payout)

DPS = ₦80.49 × 0.80 = ₦64.39 per share

D. Long-Term Yield on Original Cost (at ₦525)

Yield on Cost = ₦64.39 / ₦525 = 12.26%

3. Summary Formula:

Yield = [((2.5×10^12) × 2 × 2 × 3.3%) / (4.1×10^9)] × 80% / 525 = 12.26%

Note: This model assumes linear profit scaling as throughput doubles, no additional equity dilution during Phase 2 financing, and stable global refining margins.

awesomeJ:
Have you had good practice with it though? Like real consistent experience?

These theories aren't the issue.

The core issue is that you can be right 10 times making modest 10-30% upsides, but one wrong bet costs you 100%, if you size modestly, all it means is that you still have some funds left, if you redploy and miss again then sooner or later you're bound to get completely wiped, except of course you're able to build strong safeguards and workarounds


The risk/reward imbalance is the core issue.

Anyways like I said, some people are probably better at it, cos it would be foolish and prideful of me to assume that just cos I couldn't do it then no one else can.

That was my grouse with some people here about trading. Them who felt cos they couldn't do trade successfully, then I couldn't. Funny people 😁.

It is not theory but the koko; it all boils down to probability.

Assuming you stake ₦100 to make ₦50 (that is, if you win, they pay you your original ₦100 plus an additional ₦50) the decimal odds are calculated like this:

1 + 50/100 = 1.5

To convert that to implied probability:

1/1.5 = 66.67%

So your estimated probability has to be higher than this to have positive expectancy.

Let's assume that, based on your expert knowledge, you estimate an 80% probability that the event will happen. Then you have positive expectancy.

If we translate it into practical terms, 80% of the time you will win ₦50, while 20% of the time you will lose ₦100. So your expected value is:

0.8*50 - 0.2*100 = ₦20

You would therefore expect to make ₦20 on average every time you place this bet over a large number of bets.

The other part is sizing your bets so that you can survive multiple losses in a row. An 80% probability of winning also means that you can still lose 4 or 5 times in a row, or even more. So you size your stake appropriately so that when those sequences of losses occur, you won't be wiped out.

I'm not going to dive deep into how to do that; Google is your friend.

The hard part is being able to estimate a probability that is close enough to reality or better than the implied probability in the bet. Most of the rest is just math.

awesomeJ:
No, I merely tried my hands in prediction markets since the promoters claim it's a subset of the financial markets 😁

In a way, it is.

Actually, it is both hard and yet relies on two principles: expected value and bet sizing.

Expected value is important because you have to think probabilistically, not in terms of certainty. You should gauge the probability of an event happening against the implied probability, which is based on the returns they are offering. If your estimated probability is higher than the implied probability, then you have positive expectancy.

The other principle is sizing your bets. This depends on the size of the bankroll you have designated for betting and the expected value of the bet. There are many ways to calculate this; the Kelly criterion is one of them.

Finally, it is hard because accurately gauging the actual probability of an event happening is not easy, unless you are an expert in that particular field.

I see this argument over and over. Simply using the exchange rate is the wrong approach because it does not account for the cost of living and the economic conditions of each country. A better approach is to use the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) conversion factor because it provides a better estimate of equivalent income based on the relative prices and spending patterns in each country. Note that I use “average” because the actual purchasing power still depends on how individuals spend their money.

Based on World Bank data, Nigeria’s 2025 PPP conversion factor is about ₦318 per international dollar.

This means: ₦20,000,000 / 318 = $62,893

So, ₦20 million spent (or earned) in Nigeria has approximately the purchasing power of $62,900 spent (or earned) in the US, on average.

Conversely: $15,000 x 318 = ₦4,770,000

Therefore, $15,000 spent in the US has approximately the same purchasing power as ₦4.77 million spent in Nigeria, based on the PPP conversion factor.

Reloadedisraelp:
u think the world will allow that ?🙄

Looks like the world has accepted that. If you have been following the war, you would know that America appealed to other affected countries to join the effort to escort ships through and secure the Strait of Hormuz, but no country joined. Unless that changes in the future, as of today Iran controls the Strait, and America, despite all its might, has not been able to change that.

With the Strait of Hormuz in Iran's hands and the tolls they are going to collect from every tanker and ship for years to come, the destruction will be rebuilt in no time with the help of the Chinese and the Russians.

Udara m daa! (Da-daa!)

Daa n’onye nwe nna, daa n’onye nwe nne.

Udara m daa! (Da-daa!)

Ọ bụrụ n’ọtụm̀k̀pọ̀ na-acha, daa!

Ọ bụrụ n’ọtụm̀k̀pọ̀ na-agba, maa!

Udara m daa! (Da-daa!)

Enu uwa bụ olili,

Onye lịchaa, ọ laba.

Udara m daa! (Da-daa!)

Udara m mịarụ m mkpụrụ mma,

Ka m rie, ka m too, ka m puru uwa m.

Udara m daa! (Da-daa!)

Daa n’onye nwe nna, daa n’onye nwe nne,

Nne nwụrụ, nna nwụrụ, Chi m amaghibị na m nọ n’ụwa!

Udara m daa! (Da-daa!)

My target for Transcorp is ₦55. Let's go!

mikeapollo:
"Elo lo ma je ti n ba se si Naira...
How much is it (amount) when I exchange it to Naira

''Owo lo n soro o!"
It's money speaking

''Owo n be lapo mi o, dide ko ba mi jo''
Money in my pocket, stand and dance with me

''Dollar n be, Naira n be, paper n be l'apo wa..''.
There's dollar, there's naira, paper in our (my) pocket


Naija men and money flexing!
No wonder the ladies too like to chop their money!

Awon kan, awon kan, awon kan...
Awon kan waye wa sise
Awon kan waye wa jaye
Awon kan waye wa gbowo
Awon kan waye wa saye
Awon kan waye wa sayo oh
Awon kan waye wa sayo oh...

Which one are you? 😄

wanaj0:
Market is bubbling

Millionaires being made on PAPER

Many becoming billionaires also.

Gurus and Gugurus all over

OandO people should BUY Ocean abd Oil. That's where the honey is.

Anyway, E ku market ooo

People who bought FIRSTHOLDCO at ₦25 or below are currently singing:

"Elo lo ma je ti n ba se si Naira...
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, boys dey hustle...
Champagne, Hennessy, Moët for everybody...
It's all about the Benjamins, baby...
Owo lo n soro o!"

Meanwhile, me that entered ZENITHBANK just last week is over here singing:

"If I hammer...
Owo n be lapo mi o, dide ko ba mi jo...
Dollar n be, Naira n be, paper n be l'apo wa...
Everything is there..."

emmanuelewumi:
This is too ambitious. I think N500 is possible by December 2026

You don show, any better?

searchng4love:
FIRSTHOLDCO is in a world of it's own. The upcoming share issues must be at the right price to attain the 1 trillion naira capital base..... So that share is still coming down.... Whether Otedola likes it or not!

Wale Oando needs this kind of pump..

Of course, it will come down. Look at the retail traders, they all want it to go down. All of this is because of the moneybags with their 10 million-unit buy orders. Look at Friday: when they stepped back and allowed the normal market to do its thing for a while, the stock dropped 10%, but it recovered once they returned to mop up the sell offers.

I see this bull run continuing until they have accumulated as much as they want. After that, I think we could see a sharp correction, possibly losing up to 30%.

NB: This is just my own analysis, and it may turn out to be wrong. Remember, many futures are possible, but some are much more likely than others.

yMcy56:
FBNH Q2 2026
.https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/47491_FIRST_HOLDCO_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2026.pdf

** One of the good things Otedola will bring to this table is prompt reporting!
Think this is a plus for FBNH
Kudos Otebaba 👏🏆

This is a good sign for ZENITHBANK and GTCO. We may see a 10% to 20% move in those stocks as well, although it may not be as explosive as FIRSTHOLDCO's.

Streetinvestor2:
What price did u enter. I bought many of mine at #6 some moon ago
I don't plan to sell anytime soon
I want to start collecting back dividend like in the past.I have been with FBNH since the day of PO yrs back and have never sold a unit instead accumulated at #6

I need to clarify something here. I have two accounts. One is my investment account, which holds stocks like ZENITHBANK (bought at ₦12), DANGCEM (bought at ₦116), UCAP (bought at ₦2.50), and others. The second account is strictly for trading.

I am not embarrassed to say that I trade the NGX the same way car dealers buy tokunbo cars, buy, hold for a while, and resell for a profit. It is a source of income for me (you nah Oga nah, you no dey trade, you no need money nah ).

In this case, I bought FIRSTHOLDCO at ₦69, before the recent correction, as a trading position. I made about 50% on my money, and I'm satisfied with that. I'll soon move into another stock and withdraw my profit.

I have hit my target of above ₦100 in Firstholdco, so I'm out, guys. Good luck to those still holding. It may still go to ₦120 or even higher.

yMcy56:
First Bank, all offers cleared !
Closed @95.95

When OANDO is ready, that one even easy...
You know why? Higher % of the OS is domiciled with Ocean and Oil and some other institutional investors/Companies....
Only around 32% owned by minority shareholders...
So, moving it shouldn't be that difficult.....compared to FBNH with humongous OS...
If FBNH can do it, OANDO should be able to do it much better . 😁

I said it here, lol.

This one was easy. Look at the billions being traded, yet the stock still didn't close in the red. Like I said, ₦100+ is coming for FIRSTHOLDCO.

Some people have now changed their tune, from calling for -20% to now talking about +20%. Others are congratulating people who sold, when another 15% to 20% upside is still very likely. Lol

Agbalowomeri:
They probably don't need to panic. They can become investors till next year. If Q1 is sustained, can we see EPS of N25 by year end?

As I see the ₦9 billion traded so far today, I have no fear. ₦100 is not far away. Based on Morgan Capital's order book, all the current sell offers are worth less than ₦2 billion, meaning they can easily be cleared if the heavyweight buyers are still in the market. I'm not really interested in what the retail traders are doing with their small buy orders. Left to them, FIRSTHOLDCO would be down 10%.