NASCON and DANGSUGAR are on a long-term trajectory as predicted; forget about a merger this year. Have you asked why the previous move was disqualified? Rice is yet to generate revenue; it's not even listed yet. There's no time left; maybe next year's second quarter. DANGSUGAR may produce another negative result. I suggest using the money to grow elsewhere, then come back later while you still can. Forget about the refinery; Dangote Refinery is a different entity from Dangote Sugar. The most the refinery will do is lend money with interest to Dangote Sugar. One will not automatically help the other; that's not how public companies operate. You can hate me or shut me down all you want, but like you, I am free to air my views.

Fidson finally entered my MC value zone (between 16 and 31)

ositadima1:
Based on current plans and progress, Ellah Lakes Plc is anticipated to commence revenue generation in 2025. Their 2,400 hectare oil palm plantation in Edo State is projected to commence oil production in 2024, and their cassava processing plant is also anticipated to be operational in 2024. Upon the operationalization of these facilities, Ellah Lakes will be able to begin selling their products and generating revenue.

Its total equity stands at 19.9 billion naira as at the end of July 2023, which has been increasing, primarily owing to land appreciation. The group has been incurring an average of 900 million naira annually to run the farm and business. I estimate that they will expend a total of approximately 2 billion naira before commencing revenue generation in 2025. This amount will be covered by land appreciation.

ELLAHLAKES possesses 5,000 hectares of land, with 2,100 hectares currently planted, while OKOMUOIL owns over 32,000 hectares of land, with 19,000 hectares planted.

Below is a simplified back-of-the-envelope calculation of what may be anticipated from ELLAHLAKES in 2025:

*Currently, OKOMUOIL generates 16.2 billion naira in profit after tax (PAT) from their 19,000 hectares.

*I project ELLAHLAKES to generate 1.8 billion naira in PAT from their 2,100 hectares proportionally.

*Assuming reduced efficiency due to ELLAHLAKES being relatively new, 0.8 x 1.8 billion naira = 1.44 billion naira in PAT.

*Earnings per share (EPS) of 1.44 billion naira / 2 = 0.72 naira.

*At the current price of 3.13 naira per share, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio should be 4.34 compared to 14 for OKOMUOIL.

*Estimated dividend yield of (0.72 naira / 3.13 naira) x .8 = 16%.

Conclusion: If all goes well, purchasing it now or at a lower price, if feasible, would be akin to purchasing UCAP in 2020, lol.

Additionally, I have observed increased interest in the stock in the last 3 months. A stock that previously traded below 10 million naira in a month is now trading 300 million and 190 million naira monthly.

Chai? eh don dey set!!!

Oga Redoil

lexy2lexy:
I’m yet to receive Zenith interim dividend. Is there any other person yet to receive

Panadee:


Same here. I sent an email today to customercare@veritasregistrars.com but it 'bounced back'.

I then sent an email to enquiry@veritasregistrars.com but there has been no acknowledgment of receipt.

Same thing happened to me with the 2023 dividend payment but the email I sent to their customer care was replied and the dividend paid within a week or so.

Received

Agbalowomeri:


Good job baby girl
However, you can hardly get any naija bank selling above PBV > 0.5
Dividend is important. I don't see ACCESS giving N3 so stock price would still hit resistance at that 30. However, I am almost sure that it can do a 30 by 3rd week of January (yes take it to the bank ) which is 50%. You notice how UBA has been hovering around 23/24. Na majority wey dey risk for 10% dividend. At all at all.... . Naija Banks will also hardly sell above P/E of 4 unless we see a RoE of 40%

Sorry to dampen your expectation. Na grey hair dey worry me Lol . Apart from FBNH sentiment, all banks will move together and the likelihood of better capital appreciation historically has been better with lower priced banks. It's just the way our psyche is conditioned in this market.

However, maybe we will get a new ololo trend this time.

My MC valuation, based on a 2.25 dividend, falls somewhere between 29.8 and 58.5, given the current outstanding shares.

It's as if Snowpiercer ended today. It was a very good show. I binge-watched seasons 1 to 3 and then followed season 4. Well done to the producers!!!

BullBearMkt:

It can, to form double bottom. The corrections will then change from simple to complex.

If the price breaks below the last swing low, we can conclude that selling pressure still exists. The possibility of a double bottom will depend on how far below that level it goes.

We can't definitively call this a correction until we actually see it correct. But, if it fails to break the low swing, we can be more confident in expecting a continuation of the upward trend. My opinion though.

BullBearMkt:

You are absolutely correct Agba!
As soon as the All-Share-Index completes its correction and closes above 100,528; then...

Not only should the upswing break 100,528, but if a downswing occurs, it should not fall below 96,000 (the last low swing). Therefore, it's not yet a certainty until the setup activates. It remains a high-probability scenario.

crownprince2017:
Up till now, pa Emma, aj8, ogg, mcy et.al did not tell me their clear view of fidson based on their recent reports.


Sell or hold

ositadima1:


Let me try my hand at analyzing Fidson. Fidson is a tough one, and there may be hidden notes in the 2023 financial report, but I haven't checked thoroughly.

Fidson's cash flow from operations is about 1.54 billion naira, as reported in the financials, which it almost entirely paid out as dividends of 60 kobo per share. However, capital expenditure was several times the cash flow, at about 4.53 billion naira, which I guess was funded by a 6.7 billion naira increase in borrowings for the year.

Most of this capex comes from capital work in progress (WIP), about 3.3 billion naira. A similar magnitude was also invested in the previous year, 2022. I don't know what they're planning, but maybe they acquired some of GlaxoSmithKline's assets. Since it's WIP, it's not yet operational and has yet to generate revenue.

As I mentioned before, debt increased significantly, but the debt-to-equity ratio was still acceptable at 0.96. I anticipate Fidson generating much more revenue and, consequently, profits when the WIP investments become operational.

I hope a FCFE per share of 1.2 naira will not be too far off. Running the MC simulation with 1.2 would put Fidson's value between 16 and 31 naira. Fidson appears to be undervalued.

Note: The key to Fidson's future performance will likely be how well they can translate their capital investments (the huge capital WIP) into revenue and profit growth.

aj8:



Over priced based on eps. Common sense about N3.30 and still falling . Not the type I like to touch even with my health care background. Time to book whatever profits and let your principle run if you are in love with the stock.

Will Fidson enter my calculated value zone, or will common sense prevail, bringing it down to N3.30? Well, let's allow Mr. Time to tell. By the way, MC stands for Monte Carlo, referring to my small simulation engine.

creategist:
This is highly unnecessary

Like my highly esteemed friends, Streetinvestor and Streetinvestor2 say, you have no right to dictate to me what I write. If there are any rules that I have broken, do the needful; if not, get out of my way. ASAP...

Megapower:


This is becoming an obsession, just out of the blues
What's the connection?

Wait for part 2. Coming soon...

Once upon a time, in Universe 13, there lived a gentle but fearless warrior called Kakarot. He had Vegeta as his childhood friend and was married to Chi-Chi. Together, they had a son named Goku. Kakarot, of the Dragon Balls enterprise, was a passive investor, unlike Madame Mercy56, who was active every day. To be continued...

godlyguy:
You can all see that Oando and their marketers don't seem to have the sincere interest of their shareholders at heart.

They don't mind circulating old news just to market it. The politics around it and media hypes is what people are buying for the moment so they have to keep dishing out recycled news to keep the price within a particular range until it gets to their target so they can raise funds from the same people that have not benefited anything since they started this wayo years back. I pity the unsuspecting. You are dealing with manipulative heavy money bags

New entrants should be very careful of this government, Oando and their many marketers here and on many other fronts. See what the government is doing to Alhaji ref. And you want to believe them on this Oando packaging? Someone said E go cast and everyone wants to swallow him.

Safeguard your capital/money newbies until they do the needful and not just selling hopes in hopeviles by whatever means possible

Be wise

You sound like a grandpa who would warn you against drinking soft drinks without explaining the nuances of diabetes. I doubt he fully understands the complexities of the disease, just seeing it in black and white.

Have you heard of the concept of risk parity? This investment strategy rebalances and diversifies a portfolio based on overall risk, not just proportions. Allows investors to include riskier assets if it doesn't increase the portfolio's overall risk, potentially reaping higher returns.

For example, I did my "double your money" challenge with Oando when it was trading at 15 something. While 500k is a significant sum (maybe not ), even a 50% loss wouldn't have significantly impacted my entire portfolio.

My point is that no stock is inherently bad. What matters is your investment approach. There's nothing stopping a beginner from investing in riskier assets, as long as they fully understand the risks involved.

Feygbe:
Hello. May I kindly ask what the bond here is called? And do banks offer these?

Go to https://www.dmo.gov.ng/

Under 'Bonds,' navigate to 'Bond Issuance Calendar.' The latest one available is for Q3. You may have to wait for the release of the Q4 calendar.

Looking at the attached document, the last auction date listed is for today. Also, note that these are reopening bonds, meaning they were issued before, but the government has chosen to offer more of them.

Yes, banks and brokerage houses offer Nigerian bonds. To invest in bonds through a bank, you may need to register for a separate investment account or complete additional paperwork.

Ades1:



😂😂😂 right, person wey bills wan finish for the abroad.

Osita, there would have been no arguments if not for misleading posts about SMALL $50k 😂😂😂😂. Only a Nigerian in Nigeria will call $50k small money 😂😂😂😂

Ok, Bro.

Agbalowomeri:


So person go work for 3-5 years of his life only to plan for...."responsibilities at home"? Shuuo

if you like use am they give your girlfriends, if you like use am dey buy land, the point is the strategy not d specifics. At least 14 mill on autopilot annually for 10 to 15 years can do something in this Nija.


Maybe not.

Sorry for derailing o.

Ades1:



Bros you’re shifting goalpost na. What you said was send $50k to Nigeria and have it invested in bonds and who cares even if your SMALL $50k losses value. Which nurse get small $50k to throw around? Building a portfolio over a few years and sending $50k at once are not the same thing.

Yes, a doctor may have $50k to invest here but it is not small to them by any means. Again, don’t be deceived by the internet. I do not know a doctor, but I know at least 3 nurses and I can tell you with confidence that none of them has small $50k to send this Nigeria lol.

I don't like arguing further; I've been very clear in what I said. The people who got help through my small post have already done so. If you work abroad with a plan for 3 to 5 years, you should have much more than $50k saved up (if you want me to explain why and how, just ask politely).

I understand how most guys get pressure from people back home - for burials, health issues, small business capital, school fees. Now, instead of sending money every now and then, you can simply take that $50k (must not be $50k, before you start again, please read like an intelligent person that you are) and invest it in Nigeria at 17 to 18% interest(Now, the chance is going as rates are coming down) . This way, you'll have no more worries; the proceeds can take care of all those expenses.

You can even use the returns to build up small investments without adding extra money, while you continue saving. I can tell you what nurses earn after tax, not from internet sources, but from the workers themselves. Again, if you're interested, just ask politely.

chimex38:


I see sense in the nonsense
Is ETAP the popular industrial standard for Engineering industry in Nigeria?
I ve heard of AutoCAD used by many.
Would like to know and advise a to-be Engineer to learn a relevant software tool after school.
Dunno what tool is current nowadays.

Sorry for digressing.

For elect eng.

Excel and word: Documents, deliverables and calculations.

Dialux or Relux: lighting design and calc.

Etap or Skm: Electrical design (power systems)

Autocad: Drawings, deliverables, measurements

Hysys: process eng

PDMS and others: 3d modeling.

Major ones for elect elect sha, others dey but they dey more specific to job.

Building a 100 million naira portfolio in few years (3 to 5 years) is very achievable for a diasporan if they have the proper knowledge or follow FA guys and some TA guys on this thread.

An average Nija worker can top up 2 to 10 million naira to stocks annually, but a diasporan can invest much more due to favorable exchange rates.

Ades1:




Lmfao, forget what you see on the internet, how many diasporians have $50k sitting somewhere to repatriate to Nigeria? Sending $50k here means you must have earned $80k, then you account for taxes and other deductions.

Life na jeje whether in Nigeria or abroad

If you work in healthcare as a nurse, doctor, or related professional and you couldn't save $80,000 in 3 to 4 years, you should recognize that you've either chosen to live extravagantly or you're residing in a very expensive city.

A registered nurse can save $20k a year easy. Why do you think they are leaving Nigeria by the hundreds? I am stating a fact here; take your time and do your research. Then there are those who go abroad without a plan, but I'm not referring to those diasporans. Lol

ositadima1:
Sweden dey give immigrants 38k usd plus flight, make dey use them hand deport. Na 60 mil o, person fit collect carry enter gtco or zenith sheby sombody say na 200 naira eh dey go.

Or better still, carry am do those 10 or 15 year bonds, way be like 18 or 17 percent now, that na automatic 860k per month. How many people dey collect reach like that sef. Na only Mcy56 I dey sure say her salary pass am for here.

On a serious note, for people in the diaspora, wouldn't it be better to invest in these 17-18% bonds that last for years? You could simply repatriate $40,000 to $50,000, put it in one of those bonds, and use the returns to handle all those requests (wahala...) from your Nigerian family and relatives back home.

You could give out 1 million naira at random to any lucky family or friend every month, and they would love you for it without any further expenses on your part. Your initial $50,000 investment would still be there, though it might fall in value over time. But what do you care? It's just $50,000, right? And you can keep giving for years.

Agbalowomeri:


Wahala for the frequentists

Be like say you do stats or ecoms for uni?

I here say Bayesian stats easy pass trad stats.

Na joke o.

Sweden dey give immigrants 38k usd plus flight, make dey use them hand deport. Na 60 mil o, person fit collect carry enter gtco or zenith sheby sombody say na 200 naira eh dey go.

Or better still, carry am do those 10 or 15 year bonds, way be like 18 or 17 percent now, that na automatic 860k per month. How many people dey collect reach like that sef. Na only Mcy56 I dey sure say her salary pass am for here.

Sorry to bother you all with my nonsense. I'm heading back to work now, where I'll be calculating load flow, short circuit currents, motor starting parameters, and relay settings using ETAP software for my supervisors. It is burring, I swear.

People have been talking about flour stocks lately, so I thought we might as well look at the past and see what could happen if historical trends were projected onto the future. I know the idea of probability is a hard one for some of us to grasp, but we have no choice—it is what it is.

Looking over the closing prices and daily returns from 2012 to yesterday, the charts below show the likelihood of getting returns for 1 month (25 days), 2 months (50 days), and 3 months (75 days) projections of the three flour stocks.

Let's take the 1-month projection as an example: NNFM has a 16.23% chance of returning 20% or above in the next 25 days. NNFM is more likely to achieve 20% or above, followed by Honeyflour. However, NNFM also has a 10% chance of losing 20% or more.

For those familiar with sports betting, we can also state the probability as decimal odds: NNFM has 6.16 odds (1 divided by probability) of achieving a 20% or greater return in the next 25 days.

Now that you have the prior probabilities, it's up to you to perform your Bayesian updates and bet accordingly.

Tpharell:

I understand your pain and regret about losing out on the Oando once in a lifetime opportunity, you should know you’re not alone. At the start of this year I held about 1.8 million (yes you heard me right) units of Oando which I sold in February around N12 at a small profit margin. I regretted exiting when Oando rose above N30 naira, but instead of lamenting I was able to join again at just under N60, which is a small consolation for me now. Everyone can see that you are pained and frustrated about the missed opportunity, but you have to dust yourself up and make the most of other available opportunities, and stop whining too much about the spilled milk.

Another point is that we often fail to see that there are different avenues to make money in the stock market. Some people are in it for the short term, getting in, hitting their target, and getting out like a co-op operation. Others, are in it for the long run and hold what they consider valuable for years.

Japaulgold, NB, and UBA can all make you money, but you have to know why you're investing in them. Are you investing for the long term, or are you aiming for quick gains before exiting? In my opinion, no stock is inherently good or bad; it all depends on what you want from it.

If you're giving out a recommendation, it would be helpful to also add your purpose: Is it for value investing or to gain from a trend before exiting? Though you don't have to do this, if you do, you'll likely face fewer counterarguments.

MARKETJJC:


You understand what you are doing sir! What has Aso saving got to do with pictures?


I am not talking about Aso saving senior! I just checked and saw that you attacked almost all the stocks picks of recent which had even eventually made money for guys here starting from OANDO, JAPAULGOLD, UACN, CHams etc

Yet you have not dropped any recommendation cryptic or clear except the graveyard IB

Your strategy to silence people will not work. Stop quoting out of context. It is nobody's duty to recommend stocks, and it is very much okay to criticize stocks that someone sees as risky. He always gives concrete reasons for his points. There is no need for underhanded intimidation. If you feel your selected stock was wrongly criticized, bring a counter-argument.

I am not schooling you, just stating the obvious.

KarlTom:
UBA seem to be delaying their DIV announcement until Zenith concludes their RI/PO.

I wonder what they'll do now that Zenith has extended their offer for 2weeks...

Zenith had over 6.4 billion naira exchanged yesterday, actually the highest by value since 2020 (when I started tracking) . Are the current buyers eligible for the rights issue; I'm too lazy to check it now. But, if they are eligible, then two weeks is more than enough time to clear the outstanding issues (over subscription fit dey sef). Though, I didn't take mine as I believe I can do better elsewhere for now.

NSEstudent:


Well, I am not particularly a novice. When I entered UAC on BBM's call, I had to review his charts too.

I learnt to interpret candlesticks from Steve Nison's "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques".

But it never hurts to pick one's superiors' brains and thought processes on some of these things. Oga CP is good and yea, I would like to learn from him.

Ok, good.