₦airaland Forum

nosa2:
Over the next 2-3 years I suspect Access will give outsized returns compared to the banking index or broader market.

P.S. As a proud Access bank shareholder I am now in full marketing mode

Based on chart analysis, I will enter Accesscorp around 20 for JiJo. It will get there once the “hot hands” finish blowing their money. This is all subject to the overall market regime, if it tumbles, it could even drop to 10. Lol.

Princkez:
Please when is DANGSUGAR right issue commencing..

People rushing in now, thinking they will partake in the RI, are misled, the qualification date has already passed.

222Martins:
Just look at the picture attached. If you try to place a buy or sell order based on the price you are seeing on this live trade, you will be arbitraged. How else do you define confusion?

Offers are lower than the bids, buyers want to pay more than sellers are offering, by force, lol.

222Martins:
I have had stocks bought, turned green and the money returned to me. At this point, i have cause to believe they are arbitraging their clients buy/sell transactions for their own profit. All this hiccups and delays point to this.

Do you mean something like this? What does “pending” mean?

Streetinvestor2:
ok thnks
Ositadimma come and see sugar q1 result.
We need your input because the difference is loud compared to q1 2025
We are heading for #100 next Month
@Agbalowomeri, you #300 is very possible in future ..lol.Next yr is the target. We will overtake salt when alhaji have accumulated the RI

They made profit of 19 billion, and gross margin jumped to 23%. If they keep this run rate, the full year profit could be around 107 billion after paying off the loans with the rights money. The rights issue will bring in almost 485 billion to clear the dangerous short-term debt. But the share count will rise by more than 60%, from 12 billion to 20 billion shares.

So on a full year, my estimated EPS using all the new shares is around 5.30 to 5.8 naira. If I give it a multiple of 12 to 14 times, fair value settles between 65 and 80 naira. At current price of 69.70, the stock is not cheap but still within that fair range.

Picking the rights at 60 naira is sensible because you are buying below the fair value and the company will finally have a clean balance sheet.

As for people who say it will catch NASCON at 210 naira, I just laugh. NASCON has much fewer shares outstanding, that is why its price is high. Dangote Sugar with 20 billion shares post-rights cannot get to 210 naira anytime soon, unless profit doubles in a very short time or merger .

This time, the rights issue makes real sense. So, you should take your rights.

Itzlinda:
Dangcem pumping? seems like it is dumping o.

The market thinks the result is not really good.

Wapco seems to be the new efficiency king now

We’ll compare notes in a few months’ time.

Hallelujah, Hallelujah!!!

Itzlinda:
The salary wey I received yesterday, I don use 60% bought access. I am hoping they deliver and we are back to 31-35 range

Okay, good. I’ve stopped adding money to my stock account. My trading loot are withdrawn sharply. The long-term investments will keep growing, hopefully, or be recycled into better-performing ones. Maybe we’ll see billions in the next 5 to 10 years. For now, it’s one-way traffic.

yMcy56:
WAPCO is just dulling today while BUACEM remains on full bid @418....
Maybe it's drinking water first...

Not quite, WAPCO has already done over ₦3 trillion in trades. I’m becoming more certain we’ll cross ₦400 before month-end. Profit-taking and positioning are ongoing; no fear, we’re still gidigba.

On another note, my long-term hold, Dangcem, is pumping.

Itzlinda:
Access better not disappoint oo. I'm fully loaded 😂

You are fully loaded. As in? Who load you?

HesInMe:
It was an aside comment to the main argument just to temper my bullishness on WAPCO by highlighting a possible downside risk. Why is it wrong?

[BTW, try not to question people's motives or perceived biases. It comes across as petty. Just engage with the argument. Feel free to destroy it all you want; I won't take it p.]

So what is wrong with presenting my take on WAPCO and cement stocks in general? Is there a rule that says an argument can’t veer in another direction? Okay, WAPCO is growing fast, but I pointed out the caveats based on facts, why is that a problem? In this case, I was responding to your comment, not going off point.

HesInMe:
I was wondering what was going on! 🤦🏽‍♂️

HesInMe:
The only distant worry is if industry competitive dynamics change, and Dangote, given its sheer scale, decides to trigger a price war. Logic and game theory suggest that's unlikely sha, as it'll hurt all three oligopolies.

You said this, that was the trigger, which it is erroneous to claim is the only way. But again, people like flip-flopping to score one, huh.

NSEstudent:
I guess you did... You were deliberately deviating. You always do

No, I am not deviating. I am making clear, informative points that are contestable if you have better ones. The person who responded is not the person I quoted in my post. Check the post, who I responded to, what that person said, and why I made my reply. There is no need for emotional judgment, read and follow the argument.

Sunrisepebble:
The argument from day one has been about fastest growth.

Oh, I didn’t know that, lol.

Sunrisepebble:
My last post on this. Before you say I’m biased. How is this not the fastest growing in the sector ? Operations, scale and efficiency wise. I don’t think anyone is arguing that Dangote is not the king

Did you read my post at all? Where did I say WAPCO is not growing? You never countered any of my points, just reasserting the same thing you already said before.

As a long-term investor (assuming you are), you should try to look beyond the present and assess how the future will play out.

So, you can simply point out the places in my post where I am wrong, or we can agree to disagree amicably.

Sunrisepebble:
Do we really have in surplus though? Industry capacity utilization is about 50-60% at best.

Currently, yes, based on available data. In the long term, all three are building more capacity organically.

As a Nigerian, before being a stock investor, I would prefer the status quo.

Sunrisepebble:
With the way the present admin has been reform driven. I won’t be surprised too if in the distant future, there are some easing on the import restrictions/ tariffs on cement

Very unlikely. There is no shortage of cement. Plus, Dangote will fight that out the same way he is doing in the downstream oil sector.

Also, it is counterproductive to Nigeria to import what we have in surplus when the economy needs all the boosts it can get.

HesInMe:
Thanks for the analysis. True, all are firing well, but there's no question based on your numbers that Lafarge is growing the fastest. Impressively, all that growth is accruing to the benefit of equity holders: Unlike its peers, Lafarge has no net debt.

Even more, WAPCO's valuation is still well below BUACEM's.

The only distant worry is if industry competitive dynamics change, and Dangote, given its sheer scale, decides to trigger a price war. Logic and game theory suggest that's unlikely sha, as it'll hurt all three oligopolies.

No, this is not correct. I don’t know, maybe it’s because you are a heavy investor in WAPCO and that is clouding your analysis.

Now, a few points. Historically, WAPCO was operating at 60% capacity, and I guess that is what they are reclaiming. Given the industry they are in, there is a limit to how efficient you can be, as you cannot go above installed capacity. Cement has a specific chemistry, so there is no advantage there unless WAPCO is bringing an entirely new segment.

Dangote’s group P&L was dragged down by a net foreign exchange loss of ₦13.2 billion and a whopping ₦70.5 billion translation loss in OCI, purely from naira devaluation against subsidiaries’ functional currencies. The company’s standalone entity also suffered a ₦73.1 billion FX loss on inter-company loans. If we strip out these macro-driven losses and look only at the Nigeria-only segment, Dangote’s margins become much more impressive:

· Nigeria revenue: ₦861.8 billion
· Nigeria profit for the period: ₦278.3 billion (a 27.4% growth YoY)
· Nigeria net margin: ~32.3%, roughly 200 bps higher than Lafarge’s group net margin of 29.3%

In other words, Dangote’s core Nigerian operations are already more efficient and more profitable than Lafarge’s entire group.

BUA is set to bring in 11 to 12 mtpa from a new factory. Something similar in WAPCO, though lesser capacity.

In the short term (a few quarters), yes, WAPCO may continue showing growth over these two, but it will normalize.

My call, based on unbiased facts, is WAPCO for the short term but Dangote Cement for the long run.

Sunrisepebble:
Yeah, the profit growth is the slowest na

I think they all did well. The attached table is a direct extraction from the financials without any adjustments. Also, note that Dangote Cement faced significant exchange losses, which negatively impacted their Pan-African segment. I think, in the short term, the momentum we are seeing in cement stocks will continue (it's a buy ).



No bias or anything just raw data.

Streetinvestor2:
Bros how many bottles you dey cancel a day
Make I begin know when to take some of your post as play..lol

2

mikeapollo:
Then some bottles of beer follow steady

I love my beer, though I want to reduce it.

In the past few months, I’ve made more than my salary every month from flipping stocks, from NASCON to Custodian to Fidson to PZ, and the most recent one was ETI. I exited yesterday to enter WAPCO. It feels like I should quit my day job, but then we are in a period of easy money on the NGX, and it will pass, unfortunately.

Sunrisepebble:
If we get to N375 tomorrow I have my first 1bn stock.
It might be tempting to trim some there

I bet on 400 by the end of next month, not because of valuation but because of the TA structure, looking at two major things: the low float of 16.17% (Huaxin holds 83.81%), on an even smaller share quantity than BUA, and the current momentum in the cement space.

If Dangote Cement delivers an equally good result, that 400 is sure. You make your billions, I make a few millions, and everybody goes home happy.

Streetinvestor2:
The guy lives on ngx shadows..lol.He dey hear whispers

Codedly ooo.

.

KarlTom:
There’s nothing wrong with liking being right but always bear in mind that even smart people are sometimes wrong...

Okay, I’m not smart; in fact, my IQ score is below 70. I use AI that is available to everyone for free.

.

Sunrisepebble:
Might be ambitious within that time frame. But I have no doubt N400 is certain within the next 12 months. At this point I won’t add or sell unless there’s a significant pull back.
I now understand Warren buffet when he said he loves it when the stocks he buys goes down

deathwing:
Ah, 400 by month end. That one go mad gaan. I hope it doesn't happen sha. I was happy with 220 TP when i was buying it at ATH of 160 two months ago or so. 400 too much for one year.

So you’re on the opposite side of my bet, that’s good. Let’s see how it plays out.

I didn’t buy based on fundamentals, but on the stock’s technical structure. Also, I meant May month-end; this month has already ended.

Sunrisepebble:
It seems our market no longer works with a 10x PE so maybe not. I buy at intervals because I can never know when it’ll pull back. Yet to buy above 300 sha😅

I bought today at 345, with a target of 400 before May month-end, just for JIJO. I’ll also exit at any time if my thesis for entering goes south.

He gets why.

yMcy56:
Meanwhile, UBA turned green 💚 📈
Closed yesterday @44.55
Now @45.....45.50...

Hahaha, we told them.

Note that I don’t have a single unit in UBA, but I like being right, lol.

NSEstudent:
That's an interesting perspective. So they measure the total you have in January with the total you have by December? And by having, I suppose it should be what you have sold or reinvested elsewhere and not paper profits?

Say,
1. I have N17m in share as at January 2026.
2. Through selling and reinvesting in the capital market, I have increased this to N37m by December 2026.
3. If I sold everything and then reinvest to make a small loss or a less-than-N10m gain, I will probably still be taxed since my portfolio shall be compared with its value at the start of the financial year.

Is this what you mean?

My understanding is that if taxation is based on the tax year, and you sell a stock making ₦100 million, then reinvest and sell again within the same year making another ₦100 million, your tax would be on the total ₦200 million profit,thereby voiding the reinvestment exemption (That’s where the confusion lies. Note that if taxation is not based on the tax year, then you would only be taxed on the most recent ₦100 million gain).

NSEstudent:
You can't pay tax based on what you haven't sold. Where will the tax be paid from since they are paper profits? You have to sell first and it matters if you reinvest it and then where you reinvest it.

That guy on X explained what was written and apparently a loophole.

As for this, I explained it very well last year. The screenshot by Oga Ema said essentially the same thing, although there are slight differences. He didn’t mention the tax year or whether the waiver applies within the same tax year. Selling, reinvesting, and then selling again within the same tax year may void the reinvestment advantage.

yMcy56:
Una weldone ooo
UBA dumpers....😁

On top the 200m offers, we now have 76m bids against 20m offers today....

We no tell you say they're coming to defend it?

LOL, what surprises me is that people who claim to have been in this market for 20 years still follow all these wild talk.

Like I said, retail traders have done their worst; institutions will come in and take those shares from them, and a lot of that 200 million units will disappear.

They think all the offers in the queue are real, but many of them are just intent that will vanish when the buy side steps in.

emmanuelewumi:
Outstanding shares will affect the market capitalization of the stock.

The current market capitalization of BUA cement is twice that of Lafarge. Besed on their capacities, revenue, profit after tax, shareholders fund do you think that is sustainable on the long run

HesInMe:
You're right that it matters in the extreme case because of trading liquidity. But not in the cement manufacturers examples Madam gave.

No, I think WAPCO should have a higher share price based on its performance and equity, but free float is also a major factor. As explained earlier, most of BUA Cement’s shares are not tradable since they are held by the owners and institutions, so the scarcity factor is real. Under normal conditions, BUA Cement is actually overpriced, unless the market is pricing in future growth.