₦airaland Forum

mikeapollo:
You are not aware many American soldiers and citizens have been killed in terror attacks sponsored and masterminded by Iran?
Just try do a little research?
''Death to America'', ''Death to Israel'' is an official slogan in the Ayatollah's parliament!

The US would have found a way to apply more sanctions and/or attack on Iran long ago, but the dynamics changed a bit with Obama and Biden (Democrats) coming to power.

Let's not get into a very long argument. What exactly did Iran do to the United States that led the U.S. to attack Iran this time, the current war we are discussing? Please list the actions Iran took and provide sources. I want to learn from you.

In fact, the reason the U.S. finds it difficult to put boots on the ground and accept those losses is that the United States was never directly threatened. The U.S. is thousands of kilometres away from the Middle East. This is all about Israel, and it would be difficult to explain heavy casualties to the American people.

To this day, I am still not sure what Iran did directly to the United States that would justify the U.S. attacking Iran in the first place.

Oasisblue:
I think all parties apart from Israel are war weary now. I am confident this agreement would hold this time around.

Israel not being war-weary is exactly my point. Why was the U.S. involved in this war in the first place, if not because of Israel? If Israel still wants to fight, then the war is not over.

In my view, as long as the underlying issues remain, it is too early to declare the conflict finished.

nosa2:
So you want to argue that they will fight forever?

LOL, forever? I don't know. I'm talking about right now, the current deal you're referring to.

nosa2:
The journey has just begun

You think this war is over? There is no agreement yet. Iran has its 14 points, which the United States has not agreed to. On the other hand, Trump keeps announcing a deal, lol.

Then there is Israel, which remains adamant and continues to attack Lebanon, one of Iran's key concerns. In my opinion, buy crude as it falls and be patient, because I believe it will rise again.

This war is not over yet. The U.S. may eventually try to put boots on the ground, which could result in significant casualties. Just listen to what Iran is saying, what the U.S. is saying, and what Israel is doing. That alone is enough to tell you that there is no end in sight.

GeneralDae:
I don’t think the refinery is overvalued at $39.1 Billion. Compared to bigger refineries in Asia which people compare it with, they have a much more steady access to crude supply in Nigeria. They received 13 cargoes in May 2026 out of the 20 cargoes needed at full capacity and 15 cargoes needed for local supply.
They are in a free trade zone, meaning they would likely have better margins
The petrochemical facility is imbedded in the IPO as well.
Work to increase capacity is in full swing
Debt is low at $3.65 Billion

This is not a comparison, my friend; it is simply your list of Dangote Refinery's advantages.

I don't like it when something is presented as one thing when it is actually something else. If you want to make a comparison, then lay both sides out side by side and compare them objectively.

We are experiencing the Hotel California effect in Berger Paints: you can check in, but you can't check out. Lol

toyeoye:
🚨 VFDGROUP's limit-up rally has completely unraveled.

The stock touched ₦11.55 (+10%) earlier today but has since plunged to ₦10.20 (-2.86%).

A brutal intraday reversal as sellers overwhelm buyers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JR50FQIQN2A?si=Af9e2nQH88_gve70

Look at the video above. Do you have access to complete market flow data similar to what brokers use? I’m not sure whether you can build something like this. It doesn’t need to be as complicated; even a simple heat map that highlights liquidity would be useful in real time.

Please take a look at the video and understand what is being explained.

Thanks.

Agbalowomeri:
So the 700,000 barrel per day company was constructed with about $20B. Where is the fund for the expansion to 1.4m barrel per day coming from if we all want the company to retain the valuation of $20B?

Lol, what he is doing now is an IPO, which means allowing others to acquire partial ownership of the current refinery. It is not the same thing as an expansion.

The refinery, as a separate entity, can source funds for expansion either internally from retained earnings or externally through debt. I don't think we should mix these two.

I think this is the same misconception people had when Dangote Sugar was in trouble. Many assumed that, because it majorly belonged to Dangote, he would simply inject funds from his other businesses to support it. Eventually, the DS had to raise capital through a Public Offer.

Streetinvestor2:
Has your account been hacked. Did the banks do IPO recently or PO
What Dangote is doing is IPO which should capture present value and not future phantom valuation If it is allowed. Then we had not business condemning the likes of kpakus, Zichis and oando too

I think this is a model Dangote has mastered. He will likely recover his initial investment and still retain more than 70% ownership of the business. Lol.

Another factor most people are not considering is that more refineries will enter the market very soon. BUA and several others are already planning and executing projects. They will all compete within the same space, just as Dangote Cement, BUA Cement, and WAPCO are competing today.

mjblinks:
$100m

Could you share your sources?

Sunrisepebble:
But should one be paying for perfect execution ahead of time?

By the way I don’t agree with one of my mentions here that the refinery is overvalued. DR is the most modern and efficient refinery in the world, average age of European refineries are 70+. It’s also not just a local supplier, but a continental one which adds to the premium. I wish I could share financials but from going to the site myself I’ve heard that they’re making something like $1bn in EBITDA every month since the start of the Middle East crisis. Their margins are also far healthier than any refinery out there

I will be participating in the private placement.

What’s the minimum entry barrier they are setting for private investors to get an allocation?

Beeron:
NGX Lost ₦2.29 Trillion in Two Days — What Happened?

There is currently fear in the market but ....

If you understand this video, you will never FEAR any stock market dip or correction again.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0u__UfDLxoE?si=SOYSKlBaoptLU5sa

Let's say I bought Dangote Cement at ₦300 when fuel was also ₦300 per litre, before the Tinubu administration. Now, my investment has grown by about 3.7 times, almost 4 times my original capital. I decide to take profit, but the problem is that the ₦1,100 I can now sell the stock for cannot buy the same amount of fuel the ₦300 could back then.

My question is: did I really make a gain?

Another question: should I be worried that bears are coming to push these stocks down?

A man locked ₦194 million in PiggyVest to earn ₦100,000 daily. Is this clever or dumb?

By the way, I am ositadima1, the one and only.

awesomeJ:
@ositadima2 and everyone else interested, market has been slow for a while now, this means even if I grow my portfolio more, it doesn't entirely translate to more trading volumes.

So I decided to shed some cash and buy my car, maybe perhaps cos you mentioned it too last week when we won the league.

It's a 2019 Rx F-SPORT with CLEAN TITLE. Too many salvage cars in this country.

Financing by Autochek.
Since I make much more than any cost of funds.

Insurance premium on the car is more than ALL my entire portfolio just last year.

God is Awesome! 🎉🎉


Happy Sallah to our Muslim brothers and Sis.

Nice.

awesomeJ:
Thank you to all our well wishers here.

It finally happened 👑👑🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

You don buy the car?

Streetinvestor2:
After reading some yeye post because I don't pretend with my talk.All I wish for them is let table of hunger and poverty touch them maybe they will begin to know what people are facing. And make hands equal touch thr families for them to feel the pain and agony of Nigerian families as a result of failed government. How can a clown be talking rubbish after watching the video of a teacher that was beheaded in uyo because the government failed in its primary duty. And not like they care instead they are going up and down sharing money for next election
E go reach una and families soon

Some people don’t even understand the meaning of subsidy. Subsidy is simply the government reducing the cost of a product by paying the balance. How would this have affected Dangote Refinery’s profitability?

The worst that could have happened was the government owing Dangote money, which the refinery would have responded to by increasing exports.

People are just repeating misinformation from dirty politicians.

HesInMe:
Don't be so absolutist nah. We run a mixed economy where the government doesn't do everything. Subsidy elimination was a politically difficult policy choice this government made, and it enabled Dangote's success, and appears to be spurring additional private refinery investments. Regulation was another -- after initially (stupidly) trying to block Dangote, the regulators finally finally fell in line.

I don’t think subsidy removal enabled Dangote’s success, as the refinery had no obligation to sell its refined products only within Nigeria. Even with subsidy in place, the refinery would still have operated just fine.

Dangote’s biggest trump card was secured before this administration, under Section 317 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). There is a clear statutory clause stating that fuel import licenses should only be granted if there is a shortfall in domestic production.

This regime gave Dangote nothing but problems. By the way, he is still fighting the government, last time I checked, over the continued issuance of licenses to independent marketers.

Let’s not deviate from the main point: Dangote is why we no longer have fuel scarcity, not the government, not Tinubu.

HesInMe:
I was here criticizing them for not wholeheartedly embracing Dangote and clearing road for his refinery nah. But the government finally ended up in the right place. Sometimes even stupid people get lucky.

All these responses failed to prove to me that it was the government that eliminated fuel scarcity as we know it today, and not Dangote. You all always try to avoid the main point when it is not convenient for your argument.

If Dangote had not started his refinery and fought for it until it stood as it is today, fuel scarcity would have continued. I still haven’t seen what the government has done differently in that regard.

It was Dangote who conceived and built the refinery, not the government, not Tinubu. Simply take the obvious correction and move on.

HesInMe:
Stop exaggerating jor. They haven't failed in "everything." They've taken difficult but necessary policy decisions that have set us on path to relative macroeconomic and foreign exchange realism and stability. These measures have clearly boosted investor confidence in Nigeria, as shown from the rebound in money inflows and the surge in the stock market -- driven by domestic money, which is more stable. Fuel supply is also now stable.

No serious person debates this. Or denies the political courage it took. Or the pain it has unleashed. The only serious debate now is what the path forward is. And who is the best person to spur our creativity and drive to greater things.

But are you counting Dangote’s achievement as this government’s achievement? Fuel stability is because we now have a refinery, which the government tried to squash and failed. It’s the same way some people attribute GSM to Obasanjo, when GSM was new and already making its way into almost every country at the time.

Were you not here when several government agencies were tackling the Dangote refinery? The fight with NNPC, the fake claims that government refineries had reopened, the fake claims about low-quality petrol, and then you come here attributing fuel availability to this government.

I think you all deserve whatever you get, good or bad.

My fair value for Berger Paints, based purely on its growth rate and fundamentals, is at least ₦250.

emmaodet:
In your renko, what moving averages did you use?

200 MA, 50 MA, and 20 MA

yMcy56:
Same OANDO that was badmouthed endlessly here.
We go all dey alright las las. 😊

Let it cross 80, and they will come back to badmouth it. Maybe I fit join them, lol.

nosa2:
I have learnt one or two things about reading the chart. I don't rely on it for discovering opportunities but I use it as confirmation to enter.

Last last the only strategy that works is one that makes money

Did I say Transcorp wouldn't move? No. I said that, based on charts, the time to buy was at 40. The alternative entry is if we see 55 broken with force; this is the implicit risk mitigation built right into the chart itself. Anybody can claim they are making money.

nosa2:
All these chart people. I hail una oh!!!

Lol, not my doing. It’s what we see that we communicate.

Shalom428:
Transcorp setting up nicely. Smart money taking positions

Not a buy recommendation. Due diligence plz

From the charts, if Transcorp can break out above 55 naira with good volume, then your target of 100 and above is possible in the short term. But if not, we will buy it again at 40.

chimex38:
True.
But As a retail trader, you belong to the category of "the Market".

To get it within IPO price is usually a tall order.
After a certain price level, it's better to just hands off.

Zichis comes to mind.


But somehow I just feel DR might just be different.

I think they want to do it in such a way that everybody with a BVN who wants it can get at least some quantity.

emmanuelewumi:
It was listed by introduction just like Mecure. Pioneer shareholders and insiders were releasing it to the market gradually.

Management of NGX had to meet Dangote to ensure availability of the shares, majority of new shareholders got it at around N200

I get your point. You are saying the market will be flooded with it and that it may even sell below the IPO price on the market. In that case, the question would be whether it will be scarce or abundant after the IPO. I am talking as a trader ooo.

emmanuelewumi:
The discussion is about public offers.

You got Dangote Cement share at less than N120 at about 10 years after it was listed


It was listed at N135, most of us who tried to buy it when was listed bought at an average price of N200.

So, the Dangcem IPO was 135, but by the time it got to the market, it was already 200 naira. That is a 48% return. As a trader, that is even more reason why I should buy this IPO if I can get it, lol.