₦airaland Forum

nosa2:
I have learnt one or two things about reading the chart. I don't rely on it for discovering opportunities but I use it as confirmation to enter.

Last last the only strategy that works is one that makes money

Did I say Transcorp wouldn't move? No. I said that, based on charts, the time to buy was at 40. The alternative entry is if we see 55 broken with force; this is the implicit risk mitigation built right into the chart itself. Anybody can claim they are making money.

nosa2:
All these chart people. I hail una oh!!!

Lol, not my doing. It’s what we see that we communicate.

Shalom428:
Transcorp setting up nicely. Smart money taking positions

Not a buy recommendation. Due diligence plz

From the charts, if Transcorp can break out above 55 naira with good volume, then your target of 100 and above is possible in the short term. But if not, we will buy it again at 40.

chimex38:
True.
But As a retail trader, you belong to the category of "the Market".

To get it within IPO price is usually a tall order.
After a certain price level, it's better to just hands off.

Zichis comes to mind.


But somehow I just feel DR might just be different.

I think they want to do it in such a way that everybody with a BVN who wants it can get at least some quantity.

emmanuelewumi:
It was listed by introduction just like Mecure. Pioneer shareholders and insiders were releasing it to the market gradually.

Management of NGX had to meet Dangote to ensure availability of the shares, majority of new shareholders got it at around N200

I get your point. You are saying the market will be flooded with it and that it may even sell below the IPO price on the market. In that case, the question would be whether it will be scarce or abundant after the IPO. I am talking as a trader ooo.

emmanuelewumi:
The discussion is about public offers.

You got Dangote Cement share at less than N120 at about 10 years after it was listed


It was listed at N135, most of us who tried to buy it when was listed bought at an average price of N200.

So, the Dangcem IPO was 135, but by the time it got to the market, it was already 200 naira. That is a 48% return. As a trader, that is even more reason why I should buy this IPO if I can get it, lol.

ojeysky:
COVID was a unique opportunity kai

Almost every good opportunity is unique. Chinko’s purchase of WAPCO was also unique; it does not happen every day.

emmanuelewumi:
Dangote Cement was listed by introduction at N135, the share was not available to retail investors until it got to N200. The current price is roughly N1180.

How did your N3 million become N30 million? Abi you did dividend reinvestment ni.

ojeysky:
Do you mean the 3 million you invested in wapco because that is what could be 30m today

I have had similar growth. In 2020, when I bought Dangcem, it got down to 116, and that was not the first time it had gone that low. So yes, a 10x actually happened.

Mfunkynation:
I have been trap with number 10 like this...

If you use TA, it would be harder for you to get trapped in an illiquid stock. First, don’t enter a stock if the average volume over 20 days is not at least 20 to 30 times the amount you are trading or investing. It is also good to track the moving average of the volume; when it starts dropping, you bale out.

I also traded NCR during that high-liquidity period, made over 100%, and left early. Though, if the size of my investment had been much larger, I would have exited even earlier.

Don’t put money into a stock when you are the one providing the liquidity.

Jihadists on the beat.

elpaso007:
As a part time retail investor, some of my deductions from the discussion over the couple of days includes:

***FA ✅
**TA ✅
**SA✅
**SpA✅
**StA✅
**Market Whispers ✅
**Trader✅
**Investor ✅
***Tradevestor✅✅


* Make sure you are making money;

* Know what works for you;

* Manage your risks;

* The bigger your portfolio, the lesser your exposure to risky stocks;

* Only play low quality stocks when your TA game is strong, if not stick with blue chips.

These kind of discussion, when it stays within the bound of good taste, can be quite nourishing.

Thank you, some people are open minded.

Streetinvestor2:
Is possible because you speak it from confused mind to people just to win in all your arguments here.Is not the first time I am saying it Go check all your arguments with people even today not with me alone
I wonder if you are higher than normal sometimes..lol When you start with people, you begin to jump from tree to tree as dey try to reason the matter even off point
You quoted what I never said like twice too

Oga, the argument is very clear, even to a baby. If you are into fundamentals, fine, respect others who use TA or other forms of analysis. It is very simple: do your own and let others do theirs.

If you do not have the capacity to understand something, it does not mean it does not work or serve people. Every other thing is just blah blah.

emmanuelewumi:
You get time for argument sha. If the argument is not making money it is not making sense.

You are making money, and I am also making money with my TA, so we are all happy.

Streetinvestor2:
Tell me whr this happened in that conversation when I was ready to buy my thing at #35 and still bought because your yeye TA no dey work for my side.Instead you whr telling me stories how I could have bought at #20.Did I need you TA to buy self..lol

I’ve told you everything already; there’s nothing else to add, Oga. Make we no begin throw insults around like children.

Streetinvestor2:
You always argue dumb in most cases moving from different pillers
And you know it doesn't work with me.
Simply question for yor brain to process. Did you recommend I buy wapco at that point in time at #20 based on your yeye TA

Simple yes or no will do

Sorry to say this, but sometimes it feels like you don’t understand English. I don’t have anything else to say on this matter that won’t end in insults, and I don’t do that anymore.

pluto09:
All my oga for TA on this forum have all run away
You can be the new TA champion

Yes, because most stocks have moved up. Don’t worry, when I have something to say, you’ll hear it here.

Streetinvestor2:
How will I agree on something that didn't happen for all to see here.The whole matter started that you said,you asked me to buy wapco at #30 which didn't happen. Instead I wanted to buy my wapco at 35 base on FA as it was trading around 37.I should agree so it will look u win in an argument. It doesn't happen with me...you sabi that one.The post is thr for all to read. Was wapco trading at #20 at that time...simple

Yes, it is there for everyone to read.

Streetinvestor2:
Your #20 was of no value because it didn't happen. So my FA was right picking up at that price then simple. It is never late with FA if the stock is not over valued to me at that point

What did not happen? Lol.

You keep talking ignorantly. I told you, if you don’t understand something, don’t argue about it confidently. I even attached the chart and showed you where the price was struggling before it broke out, then started consolidating again between ₦20 and ₦30 for about a year before another breakout.

Do you think those daily price movements on the chart are my imagination?

pluto09:
Let us leave this one.
Which stock are you recommending now using your TA tools.

I thought you were a TA guy? Why the aggression?

Streetinvestor2:
@osita you sabi maths you did trade Wapco at #30 or below .severally I believe
Based on those trades who made more money with person who bought it at #30 then and kept it till now and you who traded the stock. Just Wapco not any other stock

Please don’t keep changing the argument. Agree on one point first, then we can move on to another.

Streetinvestor2:
Oga I be I no dey see again. I said I wanted to see if Wapco could come down to #35 that it has been dancing around #37 and went further to say my target was before September based on expected q3 results. That I won't wait because it happened to me in 2 different stocks
And you said if I had used TA I would have likely be around #20 which would have definitely been the previous yr before. Abi my eyes dey pain me. How was it you recommending Wapco to me at that point

That was not all I said. I said you could have entered at ₦20, and that even ₦30 made your ₦37 argument late compared to TA. Abi, you didn’t see that part?

Streetinvestor2:
Haba bro,dey quote me right. I don't remember don turn we never had such .we still dey same page of this discussion. And #30 didn't happen during that time.From my check #30 happened 2021 mostly

How can you be the one telling me when I’m the one quoting your post, lol? The post you made was directed at Pa Ema, who was trying to argue that you don’t need TA to spot a good stock. Then I quoted you and told you that you were late, with TA, you would have entered long ago. In fact, I was already arguing about WAPCO using TA with Oga Ema when you quoted him.

Nawa for you ooo.

Streetinvestor2:
ok nice you brought this out.pls read the conversation. I was the one making the call at 30 plus based on FA. and not you at #30 as I didn't see the stock at #30 then
You whr still trying to defend this your TA thing thr..lol

From “we never had any conversation” to now you’re the one telling me, lol. It’s okay, bro.

Agbalowomeri:
And did you sell at N300

Lol, I sold earlier sha to enter Dangsugar, which I later sold again to enter Presco when Sugar was going down. I use both TA and fundamentals.

Streetinvestor2:
I don't remember such discussions because such price must have happened before 2023 oh

I have been consistent with this TA argument for a very long time. We were having these same arguments 3 or 4 years ago, lol. No be today something ooo.

Streetinvestor2:
I don't remember such discussions because such price must have happened before 2023 oh

Here is the post. You can search for it too.

ositadima1:
You are the one who is late to the party, not TA. After 2022, TA would have advised you to wait for it at 20, as there was support there from 2021. The other significant point would have been around 30, which is clear in the chart because that was the resistance throughout 2022. In 2023, that resistance was broken, and if you had WAPCO in your sights, you should have entered then.

As of today, support is at about 35 or below. If you can acquire it there, you should be fine. Set your target for 45 and above. But why do people try to dismiss what they don't understand? I respect all strategies, whether FA or TA; they all have their strengths and weaknesses. And, just as we have Buffett, we also have Simons, who made billions using technicals.

Streetinvestor2:
@30 ke.which yr.E don Tey I buy my wapco oh.

Here is the post based on my TA, even before it became popular here. Let me take a screenshot before you start saying I used photoshop.

Streetinvestor2:
@30 ke.which yr.E don Tey I buy my wapco oh.

Read my post again. I did not say you bought at ₦30. I said that, based on my technical analysis, WAPCO was a buy at ₦30. There is a difference.

Just say I never told you that, so I can go and search for the post. I no dey waste time lol.

Streetinvestor2:
So the FA na big boys club
And TA na people way no get shishi club
I like to follow the big boys club oh.
Na you do the separation oh so make every one understand na agba
No wonder Sunrisepebble has a single stock way don do 1 billion mark or about to do dat here
How I wan leave road come dey enter Bush after this kind revelations

But people entered WAPCO at ₦30 based on charts and technical analysis, or do you think TA traders only buy stocks like Zichis? TA traders enter stocks not because the financial statements say so; they often don’t even look at them. They look at charts and price action.

I remember telling you, based on the charts, that WAPCO was a buy at ₦30. I can even bring up that post if you want to argue about it.

pluto09:
You can also do same by telling people to use TA when they want to buy stocks.

That is the point, I respect alternative approaches; I don’t mock them.

HesInMe:
Just stepping back... The discussion we're having is about how retail investors in Naija can manage downside risk when they invest in a stock that lacks fundamental support. Doing so would allow safe TA-driven investing.

ositadima1 suggested a few approaches, like position sizing -- that is, limiting your exposure to said stock. If the stock collapses, your downside is this capped by your investment amount.

I agreed but thought it was not as effective as other approaches available in other markets. Hedging -- buying puts for insurance -- would allow the investor to increase his exposure to the stock while capping his downside. You can buy as many puts as your investment requires. But that is not an option in Naija.

That's obvious, but ositadima1 is in a pugilistic mood today in his defense of technical analysis and he no wan gree.

ositadima1:
But that is the idea. Wherever you find yourself, whether in Nigeria or the U.S. stock market, position sizing is a fundamental part of risk management.

There are always uncertainties, and position sizing is one way to manage them. Why does that seem “blunt” to you? Do you go all in on your fundamentally sound stocks? Why do you guys maintain portfolios of multiple stocks?

You avoided this because…?

Streetinvestor2:
OK.Let be truthful. If a newbie ask me now to recommend a stock to buy or let me say my wife who started investing this yr.Do you expect me to tell them to buy a stock like kpakus

Is trading or investing for everybody? In your own business, where you know all the routes and connections, would you send a complete beginner to run it without proper training?