EmekaA125:
Flawed analysis. Let's be truthful to ourselves biko. Soludo is winning the race.

Yes in a free and fair election devoid of ipob sit at home

garfield1:


Court cases will not affect uba,both cases are watery and is of no moment.it goes to no issue...

Again,you are contradicting yourself.you claim apga is divided yet you still feel they will win instead of ADC

The court cases may be watery but they're still damaging Uba's case as governor

They're divided but the people still mainly know about APGA and Soludo is a very popular candidate if ADC were to win it would be very slight win other APGA and not a clear one

I've seen many reports of ADC claiming to have absorbed PPA and also to be close to absorbing three factions of APGA but until those deals are solidified them winning in Anambra isn't definite

cc garfield1

Would you mind if I made a similar thread on a different date with my own opinions? They won't be as informed or even at an LGA basis but i'd still like to share my opinions in the format you did here

Abohboy:
cc garfield1

Would you mind if I made a similar thread on a different date with my own opinions? They won't be as informed or even at an LGA basis but i'd still like to share my opinions in the format you did here

By all means

Abohboy:


The court cases may be watery but they're still damaging Uba's case as governor

They're divided but the people still mainly know about APGA and Soludo is a very popular candidate if ADC were to win it would be very slight win other APGA and not a clear one

I've seen many reports of ADC claiming to have absorbed PPA and also to be close to absorbing three factions of APGA but until those deals are solidified them winning in Anambra isn't definite

They were court cases against obaseki yet he still won.they were more than 4 court cases against soludo

garfield1:


They were court cases against obaseki yet he still won.they were more than 4 court cases against soludo

Soludo already won those cases and he was popular before them and now after them but Andy Uba has been a lot less popular and the court cases could further damage his reputation

All I hope is that ADC win their plan for Umunna development makes me hopeful that things could change and that proper development could reach all nooks and crannies of Anambra but currently Ndi Anambra seem sure that they just want Soludo

And then there's also articles like this and others that i've made threads about which again make me question of whether or not Soludo will actually coast to victory easily but ultimately we'll see in the next 2 weeks

https://pmexpressng.com/umunna-revolution-over-1-6million-registered-voters-in-anambra-have-endorsed-akachukwu-nwankpo/

[s]

garfield1:
This is just tentative, it is not the final predictions.between 2-5 of Nov,I'll come out with a final analysis.normally,the election should be a walkover for apga but a lot of factors are working against their victory...
Apga is heavily fictionalized into three or four factions.obiano wife supported hon umeoji.obiano is not vying for a second term so he will not be desperate or overtly committed to delivering soludo.apga is divided and apc in anambra is united.a lot of heavyweights from the pdp and apga have decamped to apc...ipob will surely declare a sit-at- home on 7 Nov further weakening apga's slim chances.it took a personal plea by obiano to buhari in 2017 for buhari not to interfere.apc are resolved to take anambra by all means possible this time..


Let us do a lga by lga analysis..

Aguata lga: this is the home of the apc,apga and pdp candidate.senator Andy will easily rig for himself here except in the wards of ozigbo and soludo..

Nnewi north:the home lga of ypp candidate ifeanyi ubah.he will win here.

Nnewi south: a comfortable win for senator ubah based on spillover effect from nnewi north..

Ekwusigo: hon onyebuchi offor who just joined apc alongside his brother sir chief emeka offor dominate this lga.they will deliver here for apc except maybe in ozubulu.

Orumba north: narrow win for maduka

Orumba south:massive win for maduka.

Ihiala:a narrow win for a senator soludo


Anaocha: the obi factor should help saeal a win for ozigbo..

Njikoka:a narrow win for Andy uba..

Dunukofia: sir Arthur eze who is feuding with obiano will forcefully deliver for apc..

Idemili south:apc running mate who is from here with ngige will deliver the lga...

Idemili north: the ochiaga of idemili and the ayaka of abatete hon ifeanyi ibezi who joined apc and is now the deputy campaign director dominates idemili north.he crushed the selfish and elitist chidoka brothers in the 2019 polls before they manipulated the courts to rig him out..he will easily deliver here though Pdp will take obosi..

Awka south: APga will win here.

Awka north: narrow win for apga

Onitsha north ;hon Lynda ikpeazu will narrowly deliver here for apc...

Onitsha south:narrow win for apga

Anambra east: obiano will deliver for soludo

Anambra west:another win for apga

Ogbaru: senator oduah controls here and will deliver for apc by any means possible

Oyi:apga should win here

Ayamelum: narrow win for apc

In summary,apc will win 9 lgas,apga 7,ypp 2,accord party two and pdp 1.


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Fergie001
Kyase
Kahal
Globe money
Juliusmalema
Udopasa
Omenka
Helinues

[/s]
Is this not the same Apc miscreant that came up with a similar prediction for Apc in edo state last year. Abi shame no dey catch you for this your fairytale analysis.

Abohboy:


I beg to differ both the ADC and ZLP candidates would be better then him

You must be joking.
But anyway politics is matter of choice.
Anybody can win in election.

I will say soludo is more fit as president of Nigeria.

juman:


You must be joking.
But anyway politics is matter of choice.
Anybody can win in election.

I will say soludo is more fit as president of Nigeria.

Moghalu and Peter Obi are a better fit for presidency

Soludo will most likely win the election but ADC might surprise him or APC with their thug

garfield1:
This is just tentative, it is not the final predictions.between 2-5 of Nov,I'll come out with a final analysis.normally,the election should be a walkover for apga but a lot of factors are working against their victory...
Apga is heavily fictionalized into three or four factions.obiano wife supported hon umeoji.obiano is not vying for a second term so he will not be desperate or overtly committed to delivering soludo.apga is divided and apc in anambra is united.a lot of heavyweights from the pdp and apga have decamped to apc...ipob will surely declare a sit-at- home on 7 Nov further weakening apga's slim chances.it took a personal plea by obiano to buhari in 2017 for buhari not to interfere.apc are resolved to take anambra by all means possible this time..


Let us do a lga by lga analysis..

Aguata lga: this is the home of the apc,apga and pdp candidate.senator Andy will easily rig for himself here except in the wards of ozigbo and soludo..

Nnewi north:the home lga of ypp candidate ifeanyi ubah.he will win here.

Nnewi south: a comfortable win for senator ubah based on spillover effect from nnewi north..

Ekwusigo: hon onyebuchi offor who just joined apc alongside his brother sir chief emeka offor dominate this lga.they will deliver here for apc except maybe in ozubulu.

Orumba north: narrow win for maduka

Orumba south:massive win for maduka.

Ihiala:a narrow win for a senator soludo


Anaocha: the obi factor should help saeal a win for ozigbo..

Njikoka:a narrow win for Andy uba..

Dunukofia: sir Arthur eze who is feuding with obiano will forcefully deliver for apc..

Idemili south:apc running mate who is from here with ngige will deliver the lga...

Idemili north: the ochiaga of idemili and the ayaka of abatete hon ifeanyi ibezi who joined apc and is now the deputy campaign director dominates idemili north.he crushed the selfish and elitist chidoka brothers in the 2019 polls before they manipulated the courts to rig him out..he will easily deliver here though Pdp will take obosi..

Awka south: APga will win here.

Awka north: narrow win for apga

Onitsha north ;hon Lynda ikpeazu will narrowly deliver here for apc...

Onitsha south:narrow win for apga

Anambra east: obiano will deliver for soludo

Anambra west:another win for apga

Ogbaru: senator oduah controls here and will deliver for apc by any means possible

Oyi:apga should win here

Ayamelum: narrow win for apc

In summary,apc will win 9 lgas,apga 7,ypp 2,accord party two and pdp 1.


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Fergie001
Kyase
Kahal
Globe money
Juliusmalema
Udopasa
Omenka
Helinues

Njikoka narrow win for Andy Ubah? You are not well! ����. You have no idea of Anambra politics.

bergs2:
Oga I doubt you are resident in Anambra because your assumptions are very petty and Childish.
Elections are not conducted neither are they won on Nairaland.
The assertions as here presented are also very myopic and lopsided.
Analysis my foot.

He is a kid with no clue whatsoever!

garfield1:
This is just tentative, it is not the final predictions.between 2-5 of Nov,I'll come out with a final analysis.normally,the election should be a walkover for apga but a lot of factors are working against their victory...
Apga is heavily fictionalized into three or four factions.obiano wife supported hon umeoji.obiano is not vying for a second term so he will not be desperate or overtly committed to delivering soludo.apga is divided and apc in anambra is united.a lot of heavyweights from the pdp and apga have decamped to apc...ipob will surely declare a sit-at- home on 7 Nov further weakening apga's slim chances.it took a personal plea by obiano to buhari in 2017 for buhari not to interfere.apc are resolved to take anambra by all means possible this time..


Let us do a lga by lga analysis..

Aguata lga: this is the home of the apc,apga and pdp candidate.senator Andy will easily rig for himself here except in the wards of ozigbo and soludo..

Nnewi north:the home lga of ypp candidate ifeanyi ubah.he will win here.

Nnewi south: a comfortable win for senator ubah based on spillover effect from nnewi north..

Ekwusigo: hon onyebuchi offor who just joined apc alongside his brother sir chief emeka offor dominate this lga.they will deliver here for apc except maybe in ozubulu.

Orumba north: narrow win for maduka

Orumba south:massive win for maduka.

Ihiala:a narrow win for a senator soludo


Anaocha: the obi factor should help saeal a win for ozigbo..

Njikoka:a narrow win for Andy uba..

Dunukofia: sir Arthur eze who is feuding with obiano will forcefully deliver for apc..

Idemili south:apc running mate who is from here with ngige will deliver the lga...

Idemili north: the ochiaga of idemili and the ayaka of abatete hon ifeanyi ibezi who joined apc and is now the deputy campaign director dominates idemili north.he crushed the selfish and elitist chidoka brothers in the 2019 polls before they manipulated the courts to rig him out..he will easily deliver here though Pdp will take obosi..

Awka south: APga will win here.

Awka north: narrow win for apga

Onitsha north ;hon Lynda ikpeazu will narrowly deliver here for apc...

Onitsha south:narrow win for apga

Anambra east: obiano will deliver for soludo

Anambra west:another win for apga

Ogbaru: senator oduah controls here and will deliver for apc by any means possible

Oyi:apga should win here

Ayamelum: narrow win for apc

In summary,apc will win 9 lgas,apga 7,ypp 2,accord party two and pdp 1.


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Fergie001
Kyase
Kahal
Globe money
Juliusmalema
Udopasa
Omenka
Helinues

Anambra that i know will rather vote Lucifer than vote Andy UBA.

This idiot isn't from Anambra neither does he reside there or anywhere close to South east.

I don't know what your business with Igbos issue is. Get a life dummy!!!

There's no way APC can win this election. Honestly, an average Igbo man will rather vote for anything but APC.

The battle is for APGA, PDP & Maduka

Yorubasareslave:
[s][/s]
Is this not the same Apc miscreant that came up with a similar prediction for Apc in edo state last year. Abi shame no dey catch you for this your fairytale analysis.

Lol... Leave the guy nah. That's how he will be jumping up and down writing rubbish on every election matter. Imagine him claiming APC will win Anambra?? Kai!! Nawa oooo. Some people are just stupid without knowing it.

garfield1:


Yes in a free and fair election devoid of ipob sit at home

IPOB didn't order any Sit-At-Home.

EmekaA125:

IPOB didn't order any Sit-At-Home.

Not yet but they will

vicdom:

Lol... Leave the guy nah. That's how he will be jumping up and down writing rubbish on every election matter. Imagine him claiming APC will win Anambra?? Kai!! Nawa oooo. Some people are just stupid without knowing it.

So apc winning imo and bayelsa was also rubbish?

garfield1:


Court cases will not affect uba,both cases are watery and is of no moment.it goes to no issue...

Again,you are contradicting yourself.you claim apga is divided yet you still feel they will win instead of ADC

You will be disappointed.

garfield1:


So apc winning imo and bayelsa was also rubbish?

Lol... So APC won Imo? Didn't you write same thing in Edo election?? Don't worry, I will quote you again after Nov 3.

vicdom:

Lol... So APC won Imo? Didn't you write same thing in Edo election?? Don't worry, I will quote you again after Nov 3.

Nov 7.apc won imo based on the results presented by gov hope.when the appeal court minority judgment was out,I was the only one shouting that the apex court will uiphold that brilliant judgment written by erudite justice Fred oho..still at the supreme court on the d day,I still foresaw his victory inspite of the vituperation and opprobrium poured on me...alas...

Dont forget I said same thing in bayelsa and kogi and even about okorocha return certificate saga....for anambra if the election is free,soludo has it but if not,uba will strike... Edo own was a normal hiccup.one cannot always be right afterall.moreover, I do not have supernatural or metaphysical powers to always get it spot on

garfield1:


Nov 7.apc won imo based on the results presented by gov hope.when the appeal court minority judgment was out,I was the only one shouting that the apex court will uiphold that brilliant judgment written by erudite justice Fred oho..still at the supreme court on the d day,I still foresaw his victory inspite of the vituperation and opprobrium poured on me...alas...

Dont forget I said same thing in bayelsa and kogi and even about okorocha return certificate saga....for anambra if the election is free,soludo has it but if not,uba will strike... Edo own was a normal hiccup.one cannot always be right afterall.moreover, I do not have supernatural or metaphysical powers to always get it spot on

So you are even relying on rigging to win Anambra?? Why didn't you include the rigging aspect in your write-up?? Your analysis was based on reality on ground, at least, you should have equally added that only rigging would make Uba win the election. Don't worry, I will quote you again on this after the election.

vicdom:

So you are even relying on rigging to win Anambra?? Why didn't you include the rigging aspect in your write-up?? Your analysis was based on reality on ground, at least, you should have equally added that only rigging would make Uba win the election. Don't worry, I will quote you again on this after the election.

I added rigging indirectly

My final prediction is coming out tomorrow barring any postponement

The truth is without rigging, Andy Uba cannot win. But overtime, he has proven to be a master strategist in rigging. With the hate Anambra people had for him, who would believe he could win(rig) his senatorial seat, but he did it. He also rigged himself through his party's primary. The man is a crook, otherwise it's for Soludo and Mmaduka or maybe Ozigbo.

Dagah2:
The truth is without rigging, Andy Uba cannot win. But overtime, he has proven to be a master strategist in rigging. With the hate Anambra people had for him, who would believe he could win(rig) his senatorial seat, but he did it. He also rigged himself through his party's primary. The man is a crook, otherwise it's for Soludo and Mmaduka or maybe Ozigbo.

Nice summation

garfield1:
This is just tentative, it is not the final predictions.between 2-5 of Nov,I'll come out with a final analysis.normally,the election should be a walkover for apga but a lot of factors are working against their victory...
Apga is heavily fictionalized into three or four factions.obiano wife supported hon umeoji.obiano is not vying for a second term so he will not be desperate or overtly committed to delivering soludo.apga is divided and apc in anambra is united.a lot of heavyweights from the pdp and apga have decamped to apc...ipob will surely declare a sit-at- home on 7 Nov further weakening apga's slim chances.it took a personal plea by obiano to buhari in 2017 for buhari not to interfere.apc are resolved to take anambra by all means possible this time..


Let us do a lga by lga analysis..

Aguata lga: this is the home of the apc,apga and pdp candidate.senator Andy will easily rig for himself here except in the wards of ozigbo and soludo..

Nnewi north:the home lga of ypp candidate ifeanyi ubah.he will win here.

Nnewi south: a comfortable win for senator ubah based on spillover effect from nnewi north..

Ekwusigo: hon onyebuchi offor who just joined apc alongside his brother sir chief emeka offor dominate this lga.they will deliver here for apc except maybe in ozubulu.

Orumba north: narrow win for maduka

Orumba south:massive win for maduka.

Ihiala:a narrow win for a senator soludo


Anaocha: the obi factor should help saeal a win for ozigbo..

Njikoka:a narrow win for Andy uba..

Dunukofia: sir Arthur eze who is feuding with obiano will forcefully deliver for apc..

Idemili south:apc running mate who is from here with ngige will deliver the lga...

Idemili north: the ochiaga of idemili and the ayaka of abatete hon ifeanyi ibezi who joined apc and is now the deputy campaign director dominates idemili north.he crushed the selfish and elitist chidoka brothers in the 2019 polls before they manipulated the courts to rig him out..he will easily deliver here though Pdp will take obosi..

Awka south: APga will win here.

Awka north: narrow win for apga

Onitsha north ;hon Lynda ikpeazu will narrowly deliver here for apc...

Onitsha south:narrow win for apga

Anambra east: obiano will deliver for soludo

Anambra west:another win for apga

Ogbaru: senator oduah controls here and will deliver for apc by any means possible

Oyi:apga should win here

Ayamelum: narrow win for apc

In summary,apc will win 9 lgas,apga 7,ypp 2,accord party two and pdp 1.


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Fergie001
Kyase
Kahal
Globe money
Juliusmalema
Udopasa
Omenka
Helinues

Since you admitted to be ignorant, lemme help you.
The election is tough.
APC, APGA, PDP, ZLP, YPP, Accord Party, are all gunning for the seat but only three are contending. Now because ZLP, YPP and Accord Party are strong in the LGs of their candidates, the equation really changed.
APC has serious problems.
Moghalu in Nnewi is in court over qualification of Uba.
Ngige from Idemili, the largest voting senatorial zone is fighting him and finally but most significant, he's an Anglican.
Being an Anglican wouldn't have been an issue, but the Anglican in state showed their fingers too early and Catholics, who are more in population and very entrenched in Anambra politics, are mobilizing seriously.
Andy Uba is from OAU. So is Ozigbo, Soludo and Maduka.
In this block are Orumba north and South, then Aguata.
Maduka is Orumba proper and is very popular there. If he becomes adamant, then it's a loss for the APC, PDP and APGA. Especially, APGA who use to strong in the area because of Peter Obi performance when he was governor. But if he decides to play ball, he will surely go with PDP because he is Peter Obi personal friend and was in the party before he left.
In Aguata, PDP is very very strong there.
Even on Monday, all the APC LG excos decamped to PDP. Not ruling out APGA because of their time in government and APC because Andy Uba is from there. So the strength there is balanced, just that Maduka could be the spoiler. APC 23%, PDP 27%, APGA 20% while other parties share 30%
In Anambra central, UCHE Ekwunife, Peter Obi and Chidoka could give PDP an edge. But don't rule out APGA grassroot strength and Victor Umeh. Andy Uba poached one APGA henchmen, Ifeanyi Ibezim. But if he didn't win Obinna Chidoka in the area in 2019, maybe he will do that now. But ZLP, who is very popular in the area could be a spoiler for PDP, especially in Idemili. So in this zone, Peter Obi and Ekwunife and Chidoka factor could help PDP. 25% PDP, 18% APC, 22% APGA while other parties share 35%
In the Nnewi north and South, Ekwusigo and Ihiala, apart from Nnewi north where Ifeanyi Ubah hold a sway, Andy Uba will win in these areas. Except Catholics decide to be Catholic. In fact, in these areas, there are many Anglicans and they're not smiling at all. So if you add this to Uba performance in his OAU, then he may edge others in Anambra South senatorial zone. Now it could be APC 29%, PDP 18%, APGA 26% while other parties share 27%.
In the north senatorial zone, they're predominantly Catholics and they vote PDP in general election while APGA in gov election. But APC poached very popular Stella Odua.
Though the sentiments on ground hasn't changed but anything is possible. Obama is from there to.
APGA 35%, PDP 25% APC 15% while other parties share 25%
Yes, it is not looking good for APGA but if take other factors into account, like the quality of candidates, the grassroots and money, then it between APGA and APC. PDP is the underdog.

garfield1:
Senator Andy uba is coming to agu awka

Only a blind & deaf person doesn’t know that, ipob messed Apga & Willie Obiano up.

I go with @JaroMan. Analysis balanced. It should be apga. But any slip gives it to apc. Especially knowing that many Anambarians don't vote. Party structure mostly wins.

I posted this a year ago.

Prepaid political analysis