lexy2lexy:

I have tried new URL several times, in fact I just tried again and still not able to connect. I will call them tomorrow.

Thanks a lot

If you are using Chrome browser you can try Firefox. You can also clear Morgan from your browser history then go the normal Morgan Capital Group website and look for Itrade at the bottom of the homepage and log in through there

DrAwo:


Thanks for pointing me to this publication from MTN in which the FCF you stated was quoted from...

There are diverse ways of calculating FCF... Some are more representative of reality than others... MTN has told us which formula they used to calculate the stated FCF (EBITDA - CapEx)... I will not comment on if this formula is factual or not but realise that they will choose whichever formula best suits their narrative...

I recommend we all read about FCF and how to calculate it rather than taking numbers hook line and sinker...

Thanks for your above comment.

I agree with you that there are diverse ways of calculating FCF.......

However, whether a company chose to report FCF (gross or net) does not imply that one is more factual or more representative than the other. We should rather focus on the purpose , its usage and drawbacks.

Data and formulae are explicitly stated in the earning release to aid any users (investment bankers...., stakeholders..... investors and interested parties) to make their independent opinion. This is an acceptable level of disclosure.

We should understand that corporate entities like (MTN, Airtel etc) are multinationals, have a global audience and are guided by industry norms acceptable to the exchange...... they dont just choose formulae to suit their narratives.

Lastly, any users that is aggrieved with the industry norms can take the pains to make its own calculation as deem fit.

yMcy56:


There's now a new URL for iTrade Morgan Capital

https://itrade.morgancapitalgroup.com/customers/

It has started working this morning.

Thanks a lot, just spoke to them. They are working on it

freeman67:


If you are using Chrome browser you can try Firefox. You can also clear Morgan from your browser history then go the normal Morgan Capital Group website and look for Itrade at the bottom of the homepage and log in through there

talk2me2:
It has started working this morning.

Still not working from my end.

Willie2015:


Thanks for your above comment.

I agree with you that there are diverse ways of calculating FCF.......

However, whether a company chose to report FCF (gross or net) does not imply that one is more factual or more representative than the other. We should rather focus on the purpose , its usage and drawbacks.

Data and formulae are explicitly stated in the earning release to aid any users (investment bankers...., stakeholders..... investors and interested parties) to make their independent opinion. This is an acceptable level of disclosure.

We should understand that corporate entities like (MTN, Airtel etc) are multinationals, have a global audience and are guided by industry norms acceptable to the exchange...... they dont just choose formulae to suit their narratives.

Lastly, any users that is aggrieved with the industry norms can take the pains to make its own calculation as deem fit.

Are you sure of the bolded .


I know MTN is working for the banks and financiers.


Are you aware of the debt to equity ratio of MTN Nigeria.


Debt is almost 3 times of their equity.


From Nairametrics as published in September 2021.


Investors need to give themselves huge margin of safety. Highly indebted companies prefer using EBITDA when calculating their FCF

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emmanuelewumi:



Are you sure of the bolded .


I know MTN is working for the banks and financiers.


Are you aware of the debt to equity ratio of MTN Nigeria.


Debt is almost 3 times of their equity.


From Nairametrics as published in September 2021.


Investors need to give themselves huge margin of safety. Highly indebted companies prefer using EBITDA when calculating their FCF

I have read the article.

There is no crime globally in using cheaper debts to fund operations and boost your bottom line.

It a well known strategy in as much there is a compelling business model to support the strategy.

Same strategy is used by Nestle, Flourmill, Guinness, International Breweries. Transcorp , UACN and other coy in downstream oil and gas as stated in the article..

Lafarge, BUA, Dangote Cement has adopted the strategy at one point in time and later scaled down their obligations. Dangote Cement debt stood at N493.9 billion before its reduction in June 2021 by 30 per cent, that's closed to MTN figure.

Its simply not fair to use that statement.

We should rather leave users to look at each methods and its drawbacks to arrive at their conclusion.

Willie2015:


I have read the article.

There is no crime globally in using cheaper debts to fund operations and boost your bottom line.

It a well known strategy in as much there is a compelling business model to support the strategy.

Same strategy is used by Nestle, Flourmill, Guinness, International Breweries. Transcorp , UACN and other coy in downstream oil and gas as stated in the article..

Lafarge, BUA, Dangote Cement has adopted the strategy at one point in time and later scaled down their obligations. Dangote Cement debt stood at N493.9 billion before its reduction in June 2021 by 30 per cent, that's closed to MTN figure.

Its simply not fair to use that statement.

We should rather leave users to look at each methods and its drawbacks to arrive at their conclusion.

Referring to debt equity ratio. I can't have a debt that is 3 times my Networth. If that should happen, I should be reducing the debt every year and not to increase the debt.

Ideally debt equity ratio should be 1:1 and in extreme cases 1.5:1


High debt will give a semblance of a high return on equity, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Reason why we use various matrixes.


The most important thing for intelligent investors is to set a realistic margin of safety for themselves

emmanuelewumi:



Referring to debt equity ratio. I can't have a debt that is 3 times my Networth. If that should happen, I should be reducing the debt every year and not to increase the debt.

Ideally debt equity ratio should be 1:1 and in extreme cases 1.5:1


High debt will give a semblance of a high return on equity, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Reason why we use various matrixes.


The most important thing for intelligent investors is to set a realistic margin of safety for themselves

Personally, I dont see any reason why I cant take debt at cheaper prices that is worth 3 times my net worth ....

Why should I limit my capacity to expand in the name of ideal debt equity ratio ?......

When I can realize my true profit and value potentials via borrowing and expanding my scale of operations ...

And I have a compelling business model to pay down my debts..

Intelligent Investors definitely have different perspective to analysing business and risk.

Willie2015:


Personally, I dont see any reason why I cant take debt at cheaper prices that is worth 3 times my net worth ....

Why should I limit my capacity to expand in the name of ideal debt equity ratio ?......

When I can realize my true profit and value potentials via borrowing and expanding my scale of operations ...

And I have a compelling business model to pay down my debts..

Intelligent Investors definitely have different perspective to analysing business and risk.

It is very prudent to have the notion that the good times won't last for long or forever.


Having a Networth of N50 million and having a total debt of about N150 million is a recipe for disaster when things go wrong and it can go wrong at any time, it is even more risky when that debt is growing by at a rate higher or almost equivalent to our inflation rate.

We can see what debt did to Oando, the promoter of the collapsed sky scraper in Lagos was said to be highly indebted, we can also see how banks eg Access and Zenith are embarrassing the chairman of Seplat. I hope he has the resources to liquidate his almost $80 million debt to Zenith, hopefully this won't have a multiplier effect on Seplat.

We can also see what debts did to Otudeko.

ekuuu mkt o

dipoolowoo:
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Ftncocoa is something else: "....with 533,264 units worth N234,091 transacted during the session by investors."

interesting to read the discussion on MTN, I only checked Mtn report d year it was listed.... wasn't happy the way the company cheated future shareholder with 2kobo nominal value jacking up 407m share to 20,350B share for the benefit of the existing holders

going through Q3 report. i see the concern about the debt....too much but this shouldn't pose much problem because the company is making good operating profit that can take care of it

The company make a return to the equity capital of 118% as at Q3, d last time I saw this was from Nestle and during good days of CAPL

I have FCF less than 100b from my end against 300 plus reported

based on my bedsheet ^_opinion MTN fp stand at 230

emmanuelewumi:



Referring to debt equity ratio. I can't have a debt that is 3 times my Networth. If that should happen, I should be reducing the debt every year and not to increase the debt.

Ideally debt equity ratio should be 1:1 and in extreme cases 1.5:1


High debt will give a semblance of a high return on equity, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Reason why we use various matrixes.


The most important thing for intelligent investors is to set a realistic margin of safety for themselves

Debt to equity ratio does not tell the complete story. And there is no ideal ratio because each industry/sector have its own peculiarities.

What is important for me is the weighted average cost of capital. If debt is far cheaper than equity why not go for debt? What Nairametrics should have done is to calculate the cost of capital and show that equity is cheaper than debt.

Next is to look at the ratio of current assets/current liabilities? That gives an indication on their ability to meet their obligations.

Lastly foreign investors are careful about bringing additional equities in to the country. So they are better going for debt to mitigate the risk.

Nigerialabalaba:
Oga mi, beta oil dey your head. Abeg helep me remind dem say EBITDA means Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization o so dem no go dey plan for Christmas on top the audio N373.4 billion FCF wey shalake go still cut interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization from it before dem go share d rest. Na for d deductions be d place wey those SA guys go do magomago.

No be MTN again? Not until those SA people waka before MTN go become a clean transparent company. As e be for MTN now, if you buy MTN, ji ma sun o! Igi pawpaw o ni wo pawa o.

The latest report (expiring July 2022) ........
issued by Augusto and Co, a credit agency gives an Aa rating to MTN and clearly states....

[b]This is a company that possesses very strong financial condition and very strong
capacity to meet obligations as and when they fall due........[/b]

Also try and read the latest credit rating issued by Global Credit Rating Agency (African arm of the New York Stock Exchange)

These are companies with global audience ..... not our local champions for NSE that do as they wish....

wanaj0:


Debt to equity ratio does not tell the complete story. And there is no ideal ratio because each industry/sector have its own peculiarities.

What is important for me is the weighted average cost of capital. If debt is far cheaper than equity why not go for debt? What Nairametrics should have done is to calculate the cost of capital and show that equity is cheaper than debt.

Next is to look at the ratio of current assets/current liabilities? That gives an indication on their ability to meet their obligations.

Lastly foreign investors are careful about bringing additional equities in to the country. So they are better going for debt to mitigate the risk.

According to Proshare, this is the current ratio at the end of 2020.


N1 current liability for every 70k asset

I like the focus on MTN, I was sold with their report after they became public. Debt is not really a major issue as long as it is well structured. Some of these foreign corporate debts are long term debts. 5-20 years at very cheap rates in the region of 4 - 7% per year. I'd be interested in knowing how MTN debts are structured. MTN is currently 10% of my portfolio, I do not plan to buy more and will milk the fast growing dividends forever

Someone even said the reason they don't trust MTN is because it is being run by foreigners lol.... Are companies run by Nigerians any better?

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emmanuelewumi:



It is very prudent to have the notion that the good times won't last for long or forever.


Having a Networth of N50 million and having a total debt of about N150 million is a recipe for disaster when things go wrong and it can go wrong at any time, it is even more risky when that debt is growing by at a rate higher or almost equivalent to our inflation rate.

We can see what debt did to Oando, the promoter of the collapsed sky scraper in Lagos was said to be highly indebted, we can also see how banks eg Access and Zenith are embarrassing the chairman of Seplat. I hope he has the resources to liquidate his almost $80 million debt to Zenith, hopefully this won't have a multiplier effect on Seplat.

We can also see what debts did to Otudeko.

I understand your concerns and I agree with your facts to a certain extent.

These guys you listed are corporate raiders and not business owners like MTN.

MTN came into the Telecommunication industry and disrupt the whole system in Nigeria.

We know the whole story how they emerge as an industry leader today.

MTN showed class, elegance and deep level business analysis that a multinational should exhibit.

The next industry(cash cow) in Nigeria to capture is the financial service. We have almost N60m unbanked across the Nation.

Our traditional banks are not interested in the unbanked becos of the huge infrastructure deficit.
CBN also is incapacitated to move forward in its financial inclusion agenda.

MTN is interested... Airtel followed the same footsteps...

We are currently useless and need them to bail us out to reach N60m unbanked citizens.

I rest my case here and leave everyone to digest the disruption in financial service space when MTN and Airtel captured the N60m unbanked across the Nation.

wanaj0:


Debt to equity ratio does not tell the complete story. And there is no ideal ratio because each industry/sector have its own peculiarities.

What is important for me is the weighted average cost of capital. If debt is far cheaper than equity why not go for debt? What Nairametrics should have done is to calculate the cost of capital and show that equity is cheaper than debt.

Next is to look at the ratio of current assets/current liabilities? That gives an indication on their ability to meet their obligations.

Lastly foreign investors are careful about bringing additional equities in to the country. So they are better going for debt to mitigate the risk.

Foreign investors are careful about bringing additional equities into the country, meaning they are not bullish about our economy.

I won't be surprised if some of the debts are converted to equities in the next 5 to 7 years

Willie2015:


I understand your concerns and I agree with your facts to a certain extent.

These guys you listed are corporate raiders and not business owners like MTN.

MTN came into the Telecommunication industry and disrupt the whole system in Nigeria.

We know the whole story how they emerge as an industry leader today.

MTN showed class, elegance and deep level business analysis that a multinational should exhibit.

The next industry(cash cow) in Nigeria to capture is the financial service. We have almost N60m unbanked across the Nation.

Our traditional banks are not interested in the unbanked becos of the huge infrastructure deficit.
CBN also is incapacitated to move forward in its financial inclusion agenda.

MTN is interested... Airtel followed the same footsteps...

We are currently useless and need them to bail us out to reach N60m unbanked citizens.

I rest my case here and leave everyone to digest the disruption in financial service space when MTN and Airtel captured the N60m unbanked across the Nation.

With the endless opportunities in the country, why should they sell about 575 million shares in order to cash out about N100 billion? Why are they not ploughing back their profits into the business but they are repatraiting profits to South Africa?

Why can't they have a Dividend Reinvestment Program like Nigeria Brewery and Stanbic IBTC which will enable them to increase their shareholdings and reduce the debts


How many insiders are actually increasing their holdings?

emmanuelewumi:




With the endless opportunities in the country, why should they sell about 575 million shares in order to cash out about N100 billion? Why are they not ploughing back their profits into the business but they are repatraiting profits to South Africa?

Why can't they have a Dividend Reinvestment Program like Nigeria Brewery and Stanbic IBTC which will enable them to increase their shareholdings and reduce the debts


How many insiders are actually increasing their holdings?

NB I have MTN shares oooo but it is about 1% of my portfolio.



At times, we need to look at the " what ifs" and whys

CAPITAL PUNISHMENT FOR ILLEGAL GOLD MINERS
These people should pls remember to empower Japaul Gold for legal mining of gold nah......

https://www.nairaland.com/6842729/uche-ogah-no-going-back

emmanuelewumi:
NB I have MTN shares oooo but it is about 1% of my portfolio.
At times, we need to look at the " what ifs" and whys

Love this confession......
I was about to make a post on this MTN discussions too.........and to say that you will have the stock despite those concerns raised.

As for me ehnnn, I no too know book o, nothing much to contribute to the discussion....BUT MTN go still do well from the look of things......

The time I'm looking at that side, abeg nah positive things I want to dey read o.

The type of cross deals done in today's trading @209.80/209.90 were huge and massive........
Over 1B staked on it.........these ones sure knows why they're staking huge amount here..

yMcy56:

Love this confession......
I was about to make a post on this MTN discussions too.........and to say that you will have the stock despite those concerns raised.

As for me ehnnn, I no too know book o, nothing much to contribute to the discussion....BUT MTN go still do well from the look of things......

The time I'm looking at that side, abeg nah positive things I want to dey read o.

The type of cross deals done in today's trading @209.80/209.90 were huge and massive........
Over 1B staked on it.........these ones sure knows why they're staking huge amount here..

It is very negligible in my portfolio sha

emmanuelewumi:

It is very negligible in my portfolio sha

Alright boss.
I just blvd there's no way you won't have that calibre of stock.
You're doing so well sir.
Hope to be like you and my Oga Wanaj0 when I grow up....

currentprice:
interesting to read the discussion on MTN....
going through Q3 report. i see the concern about the debt....too much but this shouldn't pose much problem because the company is making good operating profit that can take care of it

based on my bedsheet ^_opinion MTN fp stand at 230

_{^{note; price can go above the fp to their target price......}}

Noted sir.

.

currentprice:
interesting to read the discussion on MTN, I only checked Mtn report d year it was listed.... wasn't happy the way the company cheated future shareholder with 2kobo nominal value jacking up 407m share to 20,350B share for the benefit of the existing holders

going through Q3 report. i see the concern about the debt....too much but this shouldn't pose much problem because the company is making good operating profit that can take care of it

The company make a return to the equity capital of 118% as at Q3, d last time I saw this was from Nestle and during good days of CAPL

I have FCF less than 100b from my end against 300 plus reported

based on my bedsheet ^_opinion MTN fp stand at 230

_{^{note; price can go above the fp to their target price but for me and my household we cant buy Mtn at cp except more improvement Q4 reported}}

Please, what is the (Your) formula for FCF ( Free Cash Flow). I think I am confused now?

I asked because from my own calculation on MTN, I got minus 20Billion .

emmanuelewumi:



It is very prudent to have the notion that the good times won't last for long or forever.


Having a Networth of N50 million and having a total debt of about N150 million is a recipe for disaster when things go wrong and it can go wrong at any time, it is even more risky when that debt is growing by at a rate higher or almost equivalent to our inflation rate.

We can see what debt did to Oando, the promoter of the collapsed sky scraper in Lagos was said to be highly indebted, we can also see how banks eg Access and Zenith are embarrassing the chairman of Seplat. I hope he has the resources to liquidate his almost $80 million debt to Zenith, hopefully this won't have a multiplier effect on Seplat.

We can also see what debts did to Otudeko.

Evergrande comes to mind ...

Teeonly:



Please, what is the (Your) formula for FCF ( Free Cash Flow). I think I am confused now?

I asked because from my own calculation on MTN, I got minus 20Billion .

PAT + Depreciation/Amortisation +/- working capital changes

then deduct Capital expenditure from the the number to arrive at ur FCF

Reference Dr. abraham from SMN