₦airaland Forum

garfield1:
I still ask,is atiku overrated? Why did he fail to win any state in 2007? Why did he lost his polling unit and ward? Why didnt he clear his state like buhari cleared katsina? Why did he lose northeast to buhari from north west? Why did he get 25% in all northwest states but failed to get 25% in gombe,bauchi,borno or yobe? Why did borno and yobe and gombe give him the lowest votes? His highest vote was from Kaduna which he lost.he won Adamawa and taraba by 40000 votes.why couldn't he win any northern state massively? His bloc votes came from anambra,Enugu and delta.obi won his region for him but atiku couldn't deliver his own region.is atiku overrated?

In 2007, Atiku ran under ACN, a SW party. So, how do you really expect him to perform up North though I agree that he should have won his state at the minimum.

In 2019, he ran against PMB - a once in a lifetime politician with cult like followership. What exactly do you expect? This time around it is against a Southerner banking on Northern governors support. At the very least, Atiku should win one zone in the North. Add to the 2 zones he will win in the South and things look promising for him.

To me personally, This is Atiku's last chance at Presidency and coincidentally his best chance. If only Peter Obi will not spoil things for him.

Olaoluwa122:
Muslim Muslim ticket...tinubu will struggle to win Ekiti and ondo...That is how islamization agenda of Nigeria is spreading here...

DON'T TELL ME?

DontBullshitMe:
Pending the outcome of his VP candidate, you can't be sure Tinubu will win North Central. If he goes Muslim/Muslim, he loses NC, no story. His performance in Southern states will reduce too.

See, let's be factual. The best Tinubu can do in SW is 70% (that's an overestimation sev). In South South, he loses outrightly to PDP. In SE, he loses outrightly to PDP too. Remember that Tinubu is not Buhari, he can never do Buhari's number in NW and Kwankwanso will pinch votes off him so I believe he will win but it will be narrow especially if he goes Muslim/Christian.

Tinubu needs to win the North. Infact he must win the North.

Like I have always been saying, SE and SS will be won by PDP. Take it to the bank. Atiku will have a very impressive outing in NE and NC. Infact, he can possibly win one of the 2 zones.

Tinubu's major problem is this : He is a Southern candidate that will outrightly lose 2 zones in the South. . .how does he survive that against a Northern candidate when he is not Buhari?? you tell me

Love this...Muslim Muslim ticket...Will reduce his vote even in the south west.....I think Atiku chance are brighter than him if he goes on with his Muslim Muslim Bellshill...

Olaoluwa122:
Boss....tinubu might flip Oyo...But 75% is much...something in the range of 55% APC to 45 %PDP

NOTED BRO & I BELIEVE YOUR OPINION ONLY THAT I WANT TO BELIEVE TINUBU LEAST SCORE IN OYO WOULD BE 63% WHILE MAKINDE WOULD WIN RE-ELECTION. FOLARIN IS NOT FROM IBADAN AXIS

Olaoluwa122:
Geez...so delta people will leave their son and vote for Tinubu ba??sometimes you just write nonsense with confidence

I didnt say win,I said bloc votes.he will win delta but not heavily.they don't like him in deltq

majole:
NOTED BRO & I BELIEVE YOUR OPINION ONLY THAT I WANT TO BELIEVE TINUBU LEAST SCORE IN OYO WOULD BE 63% WHILE MAKINDE WOULD WIN RE-ELECTION. FOLARIN IS NOT FROM IBADAN AXIS

Makinde will win easily..BTW folarin is also from Ibadan

I waited to read your prediction about Edo. You say APC will win Edo (lol). That's when I concluded that U are wrong in other states. I am in Edo right now. The Peter Obi and Atiku will battle for the state. Trust me, Peter Obi will even beat Atiku here. Tinubu has no place in Edo. He will not get up to 10% total vote.

DontBullshitMe:
In 2007, Atiku ran under ACN, a SW party. So, how do you really expect him to perform up North though I agree that he should have won his state at the minimum.

In 2019, he ran against PMB - a once in a lifetime politician with cult like followership. What exactly do you expect? This time around it is against a Southerner banking on Northern governors support. At the very least, Atiku should win one zone in the North. Add to the 2 zones he will win in the South and things look promising for him.u

To me personally, This is Atiku's last chance at Presidency and coincidentally his best chance. If only Peter Obi will not spoil things for him.

Don't use 2007 for any political analysis. Is that not the same election where they say YARADUA DEFEATED BUHARI IN KATSINA STATE? EVEN YARADUA KNEW THAT WAS A BIG JOKE

garfield1:
I didnt say win,I said bloc votes.he will win delta but not heavily.they don't like him in deltq

kk sir...If you believe tinubu will win outrightly in Southwest..So Okowo win not deliver block vote in delta..that is some high level of hypocrisy

garfield1:
I didnt say win,I said bloc votes.he will win delta but not heavily.they don't like him in deltq

Poster please, Tinubu will fail all the SS states. He will get 15% from each SS state. Don't argue.

garfield1:
I didnt say win,I said bloc votes.he will win delta but not heavily.they don't like him in deltq

Someone that has never lost an election in Delta state and all of a sudden they don't like him. DO YOU LISTEN TO YOURSELF AFTER YOU TYPE?

DontBullshitMe:
Pending the outcome of his VP candidate, you can't be sure Tinubu will win North Central. If he goes Muslim/Muslim, he loses NC, no story. His performance in Southern states will reduce too.

See, let's be factual. The best Tinubu can do in SW is 70% (that's an overestimation sev). In South South, he loses outrightly to PDP. In SE, he loses outrightly to PDP too. Remember that Tinubu is not Buhari, he can never do Buhari's number in NW and Kwankwanso will pinch votes off him so I believe he will win but it will be narrow especially if he goes Muslim/Christian.

Tinubu needs to win the North. Infact he must win the North.

Like I have always been saying, SE and SS will be won by PDP. Take it to the bank. Atiku will have a very impressive outing in NE and NC. Infact, he can possibly win one of the 2 zones.

Tinubu's major problem is this : He is a Southern candidate that will outrightly lose 2 zones in the South. . .how does he survive that against a Northern candidate when he is not Buhari?? you tell me

The apc structure is too strong in the north,PDP is weak.no matter what,tinubu will win the north.atiku can only win some northern states,that's all...infact,worse case scenario is a narrow win for tinubu...atiku is not a popular candidate to galvanise people to vote him like buhari.tinubu personally has enormous structures and goodwill up north.atiku will has already lost the south east. He will only win narrowly in the ss that's if he doesnt lose.if atiku isn't careful,he might win nil region tinubu has at least one region on lockdown,atiku has none

misano:
I waited to read your prediction about Edo. You say APC will win Edo (lol). That's when I concluded that U are wrong in other states. I am in Edo right now. The Peter Obi and Atiku will battle for the state. Trust me, Peter Obi will even beat Atiku here. Tinubu has no place in Edo. He will not get up to 10% total vote.

Tinubu Can never flip Edo state...shey u dey mind him ni??...Atiku and P.O will shared the vote there

majole:
Someone that has never lost an election in Delta state and all of a sudden they don't like him. DO YOU LISTEN TO YOURSELF AFTER YOU TYPE?

Did I say he will lose delta?

Olaoluwa122:
Tinubu Can never flip Edo state...shey u dey mind him ni??...Atiku and P.O will shared the vote there

If buhari almost flipped it,tinubu will

garfield1:
The apc structure is too strong in the north,PDP is weak.no matter what,tinubu will win the north.atiku can only win some northern states,that's all...infact,worse case scenario is a narrow win for tinubu...atiku is not a popular candidate to galvanise people to vote him like buhari.tinubu personally has enormous structures and goodwill up north.atiku will has already lost the south east. He will only win narrowly in the ss that's if he doesnt lose.if atiku isn't careful,he might win nil region tinubu has at least one region on lockdown,atiku has none

garfield1:
If buhari almost flipped it,tinubu will

You still remember the mantra Edo no be Lagos??

Olaoluwa122:
kk sir...If you believe tinubu will win outrightly in Southwest..So Okowo win not deliver block vote in delta..that is some high level of hypocrisy

Tinubu is in the ruling party with enormous structures.the apc election machine is awesome,atiku stands no chance.tinubu will outfox atiku

Olaoluwa122:
Makinde will win easily..BTW folarin is also from Ibadan

NOPE Folarin is from OYO AXIS & NOT IBADAN. CHECK AGAIN. REMEMBER AJIMOBI IS FROM IBADAN AXIS HENCE FOLARIN CAN'T BE

Olaoluwa122:
You still remember the mantra Edo no be Lagos??

It was a narrow loss for apc plus obaseki since then has failed.PDP is divided and obaseki is about to decamp but apc is one

majole:
NOPE Folarin is from OYO AXIS & NOT IBADAN. CHECK AGAIN. REMEMBER AJIMOBI IS FROM IBADAN AXIS HENCE FOLARIN CAN'T BE

Folarin is from ibadan

garfield1:
Swing states are states that can be won by any party or candidate,they are battleground states and do not give bloc votes.they give marginal votes.in the USA,Florida,Nevada,Colorado etc are examples of swing states while in nigeria most states in the north central are swing states...

Nasarawa: apc/ buhari won here in 2019 for the first time by 8000 votes.even when buhari lost here,he still got 40%.2023 will be no different although apc might still win here narrowly due to the infighting in pdp and tje state exco is loyal to wike.The incumbent gov engr sule will be reelected..labour should get up to 20% here

Kogi: the okun yorubas will join forces with the ebiras to deliver for tinubu while the igalas will vote atiku narrowly..a narrow win for apc will suffice.labour party will get at least 10%

Benue: in 2015 apc won Benue for the first time winning 9 out of 23 LGAs due to bloc votes from zone b..buhari lost in 2019 by 7000 votes inspite of the hatred and outcry against with...with the middle belt looking favourably at the south and not wanting another fulani ruler and with the rev alia tsunami,tinubu should win here narrowly.labour party should get 25% here

Fct: the three major parties will get at least 30% here but it might swing narrowly to labour party.

Bayelsa; this state usually gives buhari his lowest votes.he got less than 5000 in 2015 but surprisingly and miraculously got 117,000 while PDP got 180,000.with the unpopularity of diri and the rise of apc here,apc might just win it or get at lest 45%.obi should get 20%.

Cross river:apc got 30% in 2019 despite not having any elected official.with the governor now in apc and almost all elected officials at the grassroot and the guber cabdidate being very popular and with the back to south movement gaining momentum, it might swing to APC although PDP still has a slight advantage.labour should get 25% here.the party was very popular here between 2011 and 2015.APC will win the guber here

Edo: Edo will swing badly.apc lost the state by 8000 votes in 2019 despite winning more LGAs.with the governor losing the party structure to wike and thinking of defecting and the Dan orbih faction not keen to work for atiku and with the historical affinity of the state to the west,apc should win here narrowly with labour taking second place.PDP will take third. .

Ondo,ekiti,Oyo: these states swung in the past but with tinubu a son of the soil,an omoluabi on the ballot,they might just deliver bloc votes to apc...

Sokoto: buhari lost here in 2007 and struggled to win here in 2019.with tambuwal contesting for senate,atiku might narrowly win here.obi will not see 10% here but the apc guber candidate Ahmed aliyu will win this state..


Kebbi; this would have been a safe state but with sen adamu aliero and sen yahaya joining PDP with many bigwigs,it might swung narrowly to atiku.atiku has a lot of strong loyallists here led by the turakin gwandu kabiru tanimu.obi won't see 5% here even from the Christians in zuru...nasiru idris is the next governor

Kaduna: this state can go either way but apc should have a narrow win here based on the dexterity of el rufai and sani.sani is the next governor

Gombe: it should be safe for tinubu but PDP is growing stronger here and the political grandmaster sen goje is an associate of atiku though in apc.a narrow win for tinubu or atiku will suffice.

Plateau:it is a PDP state normally but the people are tired and weary of the fulani hegemony and attacks.they might just decide to switch to tinubu but PDP still has the advantage while obi should get 10%

Ebonyi:this state will swing heavily but obi should win it with tinubu and atiku tagging along respectively.


Mynd44
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Kyase
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Noethnicity
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According to tinubu crumbs eater abi?
Mr man,you should know that tinubu will not win even one state in the north. Buhari have a cult followers and buhari followers will not vote for tinubu because of his outburst against buhari in ogun state. Mind you,I am a northerner and iam speaking the mind of northern voters.

Olaoluwa122:
Tinubu Can never flip Edo state...shey u dey mind him ni??...Atiku and P.O will shared the vote there

Nor mind am.

garfield1:
Did I say he will lose delta?

Check this two result and tell me how delta will not deliver blog vote for their son

garfield1:
The apc structure is too strong in the north,PDP is weak.no matter what,tinubu will win the north.atiku can only win some northern states,that's all...infact,worse case scenario is a narrow win for tinubu...atiku is not a popular candidate to galvanise people to vote him like buhari.tinubu personally has enormous structures and goodwill up north.atiku will has already lost the south east. He will only win narrowly in the ss that's if he doesnt lose.if atiku isn't careful,he might win nil region tinubu has at least one region on lockdown,atiku has none

For real? God allow us to see election day. No crying

Olaoluwa122:

Leave emotions.you might hate tinubu but the guy is the best politician in nigeria.look at the way he won apc primaries while atiku struggles to win that of PDP.can atiku win apc primaries against buhari candidate?

Olaoluwa122:
Check this two result and tell me how delta will not deliver blog vote for their son

Pdp was united in delta at then but now ibori is fighting okowa.even in delta north,he is facing a hurdles from nwaoboshi.delta central is a no go area.

Olaoluwa122:
Check this two result and tell me how delta will not deliver blog vote for their son

Believe me DELTA WON'T COST GARFIELD1 says so

garfield1:
Pdp was united in delta at then but now ibori is fighting okowa.even in delta north,he is facing a hurdles from nwaoboshi.delta central is a no go area.

Kk God will spare us till 2023

misano:
Poster please, Tinubu will fail all the SS states. He will get 15% from each SS state. Don't argue.

You guys said so in 2019 but buhari almost won Edo and bayelsa

garfield1:
Leave emotions.you might hate tinubu but the guy is the best politician in nigeria.look at the way he won apc primaries while atiku struggles to win that of PDP.can atiku win apc primaries against buhari candidate?

Did Tinubu win APC Primaries against a Buhari candidate? You just type anyhow