raumdeuter:


If according to you Tinubu wins Zamfara and Katsina, Are you saying he wont get 1 more state in the remaining 5 of Kebbi Sokoto Kaduna Jigawa and Kano?

If he wins Yobe and Borno, he will only need 1 state more from Bauchi Gombe. He might not even need it if he is able to get 4-5 states in NW

Olaoluwa122:
No sir...PDP his where my interest lies for now...And we in the southwest say no Muslim Muslim ticket...

garfield1:


Ok.please kindly leave my thread

Olaoluwa122:
Remove Edo Edo Ondo plss

Olaoluwa122:
Why should I??

garfield1:


Guy,what exactly is your problem? What do you gain from a northern presidency? Are you not tired of fulani supremacy

raumdeuter:


If according to you Tinubu wins Zamfara and Katsina, Are you saying he wont get 1 more state in the remaining 5 of Kebbi Sokoto Kaduna Jigawa and Kano?

If he wins Yobe and Borno, he will only need 1 state more from Bauchi Gombe. He might not even need it if he is able to get 4-5 states in NW

Olaoluwa122:
Atiku should win Sokoto Jigawa and kebbi...easily

raumdeuter:


If Tinubu announce a Moslem as vice, he is a goner from where?

majole:


He is a goner with the Non_yoruba Christian votes. He would be left with the Muslim vote which he would share with Atiku & Kwankwaso. And believe me you don't think he would beat Atiku among the Muslim northerners

raumdeuter:


I like your numbers analysis. Tinubu will never get Buharis number in the north.
Atiku will never get his 2019 numbers in the South as long as Obi continues to remain in the race
You are forgetting the Obi and Kwankwanso factor which are mainly traditional anti-APC votes

Obi candidacy is terrible news for Atiku

In the entire North I see Tinubu 40% Atiku 45% Kwankwanso 10% Obi 5%
In the entire South I see Tinubu 40%, Obi 30% Atiku 30% Kwankwanso 0%

Entire country rough average Tinubu 40%, Atiku 37%, Obi 18% Kwankwanso 5%

raumdeuter:


I like your numbers analysis. Tinubu will never get Buharis number in the north.
Atiku will never get his 2019 numbers in the South as long as Obi continues to remain in the race
You are forgetting the Obi and Kwankwanso factor which are mainly traditional anti-APC votes

Obi candidacy is terrible news for Atiku

In the entire North I see Tinubu 40% Atiku 45% Kwankwanso 10% Obi 5%
In the entire South I see Tinubu 40%, Obi 30% Atiku 30% Kwankwanso 0%

Entire country rough average Tinubu 40%, Atiku 37%, Obi 18% Kwankwanso 5%

DontBullshitMe:

The thing about Muslim-Muslim ticket is that only Muslim extremists will see nothing wrong with it. Moderate Muslims might not support it out of sympathy. Like after Buhari's 8 years, Nigeria moves to a Muslim-Muslim ticket? The ticket will do well in NE and NW but that's where it ends. Also, consider that the Media will be harsh on the arrangement so much that some moderate Muslims will rather go for a Muslim-Christian ticket with a Muslim President as well.

So, In as much as majority of the NC states are Muslims, it does not mean they will necessarily be receptive of a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Though I believe that Atiku's Fulani ethnicity will cause him problems too.

Truth is : The race is too close to call especially with the emergence of LP and NNPP. Voting patterns can change.

garfield1:


Oga,go you are not wanted.na by force to dey person house?

CoachBush:
In all these permutations, where is the place of students who are at home now because of the the refusal of the government to honour the agreement it voluntarily entered into with ASUU?

Where is the place of many people who were gainfully employed, but have now been laid off because of the bad policies of this government?

Where is the place of the kidnap victims who are still in captivity? Do you think that many of them who have been released or their families would not like to have something different from the status quo?

Do we know how many families whose standards of living have nosedived because of policy somersaults of this government

We have to factor in all these factual realities in our permutations, hoping that the elections will be free, fair and credible.

Olaoluwa122:
Atiku should win Sokoto Jigawa and kebbi...easily

majole:


Is not about sentiment or what we want. It's about the reality on ground on how people would vote. Who would believe that Amosun would support Tinubu? So when voting time comes, RELIGION/TRIBAL/REGIONAL & POLITICAL PARTY TAKES TURN. That's why I say I expect Tinubu to get 75% of Yoruba Votes. Muslim/Muslim ticket is a no brainer for Non_Yoruba Christians and if they see that Peter Obi is not feasible, they would vote Atiku. You don't expect Tinubu a Yoruba Muslim to defeat an Atiku a Northern Muslim among Northern Muslims.

Rigging would be reduced as each polling unit would have to send results directly to INEC & any delay would put those polling units under suspicion. You saw how all PU results for Ekiti was with INEC before 11pm. I learnt Tinubu has sent boys even in the USA to see how they can CRACK INEC to rig

raumdeuter:


Then Tinubu wins Kaduna

You never talk of Edo finish you say Obi will get 40 to 45% so how much will Atiku get to win and how much for Tinubu

majole:


SOKOTO & KEBBI for now.
Not sure of Jigawa yet cos of Kwankwaso factor but surely Atiku would get more votes than Tinubu in Jigawa

raumdeuter:


In which states do we have these moderate Moslems as the majority?

I agree this race is very close and IMO the more Obi gains the better for Tinubu. If I am Tinubu I will start funding Obi indirectly especially in SE and SS. If Obi can clear all SE That makes it 60% possibility of Tinubu presidency if Obi adds 1-2 SS states it becomes 70% Tinubu presidency and 3-4 SS states bros Tinubu has won

Unless Obi can align with Kwankwanso on the same ticket

All of these Obi gains na Atiku go dey cry pass

majole:


You got it but even as the Muslim/Muslim ticket might sell in the NW/NE, There is no way they would prefer a Yoruba Muslim over a Northern Muslim

garfield1:


You guys said so in 2019 but buhari almost won Edo and bayelsa

DontBullshitMe:

Whaaaat?? lol

First of all, I agree that majority of Peter Obi's votes will be traditionally anti-APC or perhaps newly registered voters. I don't think same can be said for Kwankwanso though. In Kano's Presidential election in 2019, Buhari won convincingly for Presidential election but governorship election was 50-50 courtesy of Kwankwanso influence in PDP. So, those votes he flipped against APC in Kano governorship election will be his now since he is on ballot running for Presidency against people who are not named Buhari.

Then, your Atiku 45% against Tinubu 40% prediction in the North will be hard/unachievable/unlikely. I still believe Tinubu will win the North because he has several sitting APC governors behind him carefully positioning themselves for 2027 or 2031 as a succesor unlike Atiku that's running on being a Fulani man alone. So maybe the 45% should be for Tinubu and 40% for Atiku.

On Peter Obi's case, don't be surprised if he is convincingly beaten by Atiku in SE, his stronghold. I believe Igbos are smart politically and will not gamble the stake they have in PDP for an Obi's Presidency pipedream. This also applies to SS. You better don't be surprised if Labour Party has a better outing in SW than in SE.

So, no way Tinubu is winning the entire South. SS/SE will not risk voting LP. Trust me.


Ẹgbọn Dayo. You are wrong on this ooh.

DontBullshitMe:

Even an Obi-Kwanwanso merger will still come a distant and remote third - nowhere close to the 2 major parties.

See, there are some voters that don't actually care who the flag bearer of a political party is, they are voting that party. How do you combat that?

This third force pipedream is the same thing Andrew Yang is pushing in the US. Sadly, It will never happen.

garfield1:


Ok.please kindly leave my thread

walefresh3:


Atiku can't win dis coming election ...
Ne and nw we be shared within kwawanso and atiku and tinubu will surely get 25% from each states in the Northeast and northwest....
Tinubu will get majority votes in North Central and 40 % in South South while sw will be a win-win for him

DontBullshitMe:

Whaaaat?? lol

First of all, I agree that majority of Peter Obi's votes will be traditionally anti-APC or perhaps newly registered voters. I don't think same can be said for Kwankwanso though. In Kano's Presidential election in 2019, Buhari won convincingly for Presidential election but governorship election was 50-50 courtesy of Kwankwanso influence in PDP. So, those votes he flipped against APC in Kano governorship election will be his now since he is on ballot running for Presidency against people who are not named Buhari.

Then, your Atiku 45% against Tinubu 40% prediction in the North will be hard/unachievable/unlikely. I still believe Tinubu will win the North because he has several sitting APC governors behind him carefully positioning themselves for 2027 or 2031 as a succesor unlike Atiku that's running on being a Fulani man alone. So maybe the 45% should be for Tinubu and 40% for Atiku.

On Peter Obi's case, don't be surprised if he is convincingly beaten by Atiku in SE, his stronghold. I believe Igbos are smart politically and will not gamble the stake they have in PDP for an Obi's Presidency pipedream. This also applies to SS. You better don't be surprised if Labour Party has a better outing in SW than in SE.

So, no way Tinubu is winning the entire South. SS/SE will not risk voting LP. Trust me.


Ẹgbọn Dayo. You are wrong on this ooh.

DontBullshitMe:

The thing about Muslim-Muslim ticket is that only Muslim extremists will see nothing wrong with it. Moderate Muslims might not support it out of sympathy. Like after Buhari's 8 years, Nigeria moves to a Muslim-Muslim ticket? The ticket will do well in NE and NW but that's where it ends. Also, consider that the Media will be harsh on the arrangement so much that some moderate Muslims will rather go for a Muslim-Christian ticket with a Muslim President as well.

So, In as much as majority of the NC states are Muslims, it does not mean they will necessarily be receptive of a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Though I believe that Atiku's Fulani ethnicity will cause him problems too.

Truth is : The race is too close to call especially with the emergence of LP and NNPP. Voting patterns can change.

DontBullshitMe:

I don't disagree but APC party structure will help him. Don't forget that majority of core Northern states have an APC governor who have several of their political allies running for HOR and senate seats (election is same day). They themselves will prefer a Tinubu's presidency because it means it will soon return to one of them as Tinubu's successor.

If Atiku wins, no Northern APC politician will become President again till after 16 years. Imagine that.

misano:


I didnt say so in 2019. I knew Buhari will win. A lot of people around me kept on telling me that Atiku will win. I was not convinced & so I was right. In 2023, Tinubu will not get more than 15% in each SS state.

Understand that.

majole:



Ask yourself who were those APC governors/senators before 2015 and in which party? They are where they are cos of Buhari influence. When doing analysis don't concentrate on the elites. Ask yourself who would the masses in the North vote for? In the North the vote candidates