raumdeuter:


Who are these North Central? Kogi Kwara Niger Nasarawa Plateau and Benue

Regardless of Moslem-Moslem Kogi Kwara Nasarawa and Niger are predominantly Moslems and they wont have a problem with Moslem-Moslem

The only 2 NC states that are majority Christians are Benue and Plateau. So the choice for them is between Tinubu Moslem-Moslem ticket, Atiku -Fulani Moslem, or Obi - Rlatively unknown with no structure

Peter Obi is on every body lips here

garfield1:


Most of those pdp officials in 2015 worked for buhari secretly.can you say the same in this case

Maybe after the elections we can answer this kweshion

I am sure Buhari,Malami and Abdullahi Adamu are very "committed" to prospects of a Tinubu presidency

raumdeuter:


So you think all these Obi thing is for nothing and he wont win any SE or SS state?

Yes. That's exactly my sentiment. I don't see Peter Obi Labour Party winning a single state. It's political suicide for such state and whatever region it happens.

Everyone knows he won't win so why bet on him when you can join forces with someone with a far better and realistic chance and further brighten the person's prospects??

Also, remember that a Tinubu presidency means SS/SE will wait 16 years. With Atiku, they will wait 8.

BTW Gov Obaseki is making fun of your projections

walefresh3:


Atiku can't win dis coming election ...
Ne and nw we be shared within kwawanso and atiku and tinubu will surely get 25% from each states in the Northeast and northwest....
Tinubu will get majority votes in North Central and 40 % in South South while sw will be a win-win for him

Tinubu won't get 10 percent in SS, stop dreaming

DontBullshitMe:

Yes. That's exactly my sentiment. I don't see Peter Obi Labour Party winning a single state. It's political suicide for such state and whatever region it happens.

Everyone knows he won't win so why bet on him when you can join forces with someone with a far better and realistic chance and further brighten the person's prospects??

Also, remember that a Tinubu presidency means SS/SE will wait 16 years. With Atiku, they will wait 8.

. Do you just type or you pause, think before you type?

majole:



I dey laugh. E go shock you come February.

What will shock me?

raumdeuter:


I like your numbers analysis. Tinubu will never get Buharis number in the north.
Atiku will never get his 2019 numbers in the South as long as Obi continues to remain in the race
You are forgetting the Obi and Kwankwanso factor which are mainly traditional anti-APC votes

Obi candidacy is terrible news for Atiku

In the entire North I see Tinubu 40% Atiku 45% Kwankwanso 10% Obi 5%
In the entire South I see Tinubu 40%, Obi 30% Atiku 30% Kwankwanso 0%

Entire country rough average Tinubu 40%, Atiku 37%, Obi 18% Kwankwanso 5%

You are deceiving yourself, where will tinubu get votes from in the South apart from Sw.Kwankwanso would win kano and you are given him 5%. All these tinubu urchins sef

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Tinubu won't get 10 percent in SS, stop dreaming

More ridiculous is them claiming Tinubu would win the north

garfield1:


Peter might beat atiku to second place.peter might clear ss/se,get 30% in west and north central.atiku might end up not winning any region.it is very possible

who will take the first?

misano:


I didnt say so in 2019. I knew Buhari will win. A lot of people around me kept on telling me that Atiku will win. I was not convinced & so I was right. In 2023, Tinubu will not get more than 15% in each SS state.

Understand that.

What made you think he can win then and why can't you be convinced now?

raumdeuter:


In which states do we have these moderate Moslems as the majority?

I agree this race is very close and IMO the more Obi gains the better for Tinubu. If I am Tinubu I will start funding Obi indirectly especially in SE and SS. If Obi can clear all SE That makes it 60% possibility of Tinubu presidency if Obi adds 1-2 SS states it becomes 70% Tinubu presidency and 3-4 SS states bros Tinubu has won

Unless Obi can align with Kwankwanso on the same ticket

All of these Obi gains na Atiku go dey cry pass

Kwankwanso on the ballot will clear Apc stronghold in Nw a big gain for Atiku and loss for tinubu

PaChukwudi44:


. Do you just type or you pause, think before you type?

Okay.

You think Ndigbo will bet on Obi over PDP that has a better chance?

Sentimentally, Obi is the good choice but for the sake of self-preservation, you do things that protect your interests and that means aligning with a party that you are a stakeholder and has the capability of winning.

majole:


SOKOTO & KEBBI for now.
Not sure of Jigawa yet cos of Kwankwaso factor but surely Atiku would get more votes than Tinubu in Jigawa

How will that be when badaru is in control and has even endorsed tinubu? Lamido has divided pdp my fielding family members as candidates..

DontBullshitMe:

Okay.

You think Ndigbo will bet on Obi over PDP that has a better chance?

Sentimentally, Obi is the good choice but for the sake of self-preservation, you do things that protect your interests and that means aligning with a party that you are a stakeholder and has the capability of winning.

Oga Peter Obi is now a national movement.He is far beyond ndigbo at the moment

garfield1:
Swing states are states that can be won by any party or candidate,they are battleground states and do not give bloc votes.they give marginal votes.in the USA,Florida,Nevada,Colorado etc are examples of swing states while in nigeria most states in the north central are swing states...

Nasarawa: apc/ buhari won here in 2019 for the first time by 8000 votes.even when buhari lost here,he still got 40%.2023 will be no different although apc might still win here narrowly due to the infighting in pdp and tje state exco is loyal to wike.The incumbent gov engr sule will be reelected..labour should get up to 20% here

Kogi: the okun yorubas will join forces with the ebiras to deliver for tinubu while the igalas will vote atiku narrowly..a narrow win for apc will suffice.labour party will get at least 10%

Benue: in 2015 apc won Benue for the first time winning 9 out of 23 LGAs due to bloc votes from zone b..buhari lost in 2019 by 7000 votes inspite of the hatred and outcry against with...with the middle belt looking favourably at the south and not wanting another fulani ruler and with the rev alia tsunami,tinubu should win here narrowly.labour party should get 25% here

Fct: the three major parties will get at least 30% here but it might swing narrowly to labour party.

Bayelsa; this state usually gives buhari his lowest votes.he got less than 5000 in 2015 but surprisingly and miraculously got 117,000 while PDP got 180,000.with the unpopularity of diri and the rise of apc here,apc might just win it or get at lest 45%.obi should get 20%.

Cross river:apc got 30% in 2019 despite not having any elected official.with the governor now in apc and almost all elected officials at the grassroot and the guber cabdidate being very popular and with the back to south movement gaining momentum, it might swing to APC although PDP still has a slight advantage.labour should get 25% here.the party was very popular here between 2011 and 2015.APC will win the guber here

Edo: Edo will swing badly.apc lost the state by 8000 votes in 2019 despite winning more LGAs.with the governor losing the party structure to wike and thinking of defecting and the Dan orbih faction not keen to work for atiku and with the historical affinity of the state to the west,apc should win here narrowly with labour taking second place.PDP will take third. .

Ondo,ekiti,Oyo: these states swung in the past but with tinubu a son of the soil,an omoluabi on the ballot,they might just deliver bloc votes to apc...

Sokoto: buhari lost here in 2007 and struggled to win here in 2019.with tambuwal contesting for senate,atiku might narrowly win here.obi will not see 10% here but the apc guber candidate Ahmed aliyu will win this state..


Kebbi; this would have been a safe state but with sen adamu aliero and sen yahaya joining PDP with many bigwigs,it might swung narrowly to atiku.atiku has a lot of strong loyallists here led by the turakin gwandu kabiru tanimu.obi won't see 5% here even from the Christians in zuru...nasiru idris is the next governor

Kaduna: this state can go either way but apc should have a narrow win here based on the dexterity of el rufai and sani.sani is the next governor

Gombe: it should be safe for tinubu but PDP is growing stronger here and the political grandmaster sen goje is an associate of atiku though in apc.a narrow win for tinubu or atiku will suffice.

Plateau:it is a PDP state normally but the people are tired and weary of the fulani hegemony and attacks.they might just decide to switch to tinubu but PDP still has the advantage while obi should get 10%

Ebonyi:this state will swing heavily but obi should win it with tinubu and atiku tagging along respectively.


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Kyase
Kahal
Frowland
Warriaproko
Oghenaogie
Noethnicity
Cajal
Quotasystem
Ogidigboigbo
Tutudesz
Moferere

. Can a party without structure win a presidential election? It has never happened in the world and it won't start in Nigeria. LP can't win in 2023 presidential election. The votes cast for the part will even be less than the percentage allocated in this analysis.

garfield1:


How will that be when badaru is in control and has even endorsed tinubu? Lamido has divided pdp my fielding family members as candidates..

Lol Badaru and Lamido both has just one vote.

PDP had Governors in Kaduna, Katsina,Niger , Gombe etc during the 2015 elections.It didn't stop them from losing

raumdeuter:


Which is the worse one. After Buhari
A Tinubu Moslem-Moslem or an Atiku Fulani Moslem

Do you think the NC you are concerned about will be okay with another 8yrs of a Fulani Moslem

A Muslim Muslim is worse,at least Atiku has a Christain vp.You don't want a Fulani Atiku but you want a Fulani vp for tinubu, stop decieving yourself

ejimatic:
. Can a party without structure win a presidential election? It has never happened in the world and it won't start in Nigeria. LP can't win in 2023 presidential election. The votes cast for the part will even be less than the percentage allocated in this analysis.

Lol how did Emmanuel Macron emerge?

DontBullshitMe:

Yes. That's exactly my sentiment. I don't see Peter Obi Labour Party winning a single state. It's political suicide for such state and whatever region it happens.

Everyone knows he won't win so why bet on him when you can join forces with someone with a far better and realistic chance and further brighten the person's prospects??

Also, remember that a Tinubu presidency means SS/SE will wait 16 years. With Atiku, they will wait 8.

I think he will win anambra convincely

Olatunji1929:
You are as foolish and daft as your projection I only see you as a comedian on nairaland honestly

Garfield is a comedian....

apart from some south west states, tinubu will not win any state in any other region

garfield1:


Ok.please kindly leave my thread

You will die of heart attack on election day! You are comparing Buhari and Tinubu. Thats insane!! Even if Buhari decided to contest for third term with all the wahala and poverty in the North he will with a landslide. Tinubu is not Buhari get that into your thick skull! Imagine Tinibu winning katsina and Zamfara hahahha and even Gombe and Bauchi! I laugh in Yoruba. Tinubu's outburst in Abeokuta cost him alot of voters! You have never been to the North you can only make your useless assumptions. Besides why do you think that all the Muslims in the North will vote for Tinubu? Is Atiku not a Muslim?

Hausawa sukace Kyawun abu shi ke saida shi a kasuwa, da Biki Gidan mkwabta gwara gidanku.

Fulbe vii, Hakkilo on sodata yide..
Vodugo Hunde bo sorrata horemun ha lumo.

You will die of heart attack on Election day, Fulani Hater!!! You are no different from that US police that killed a man just for being black. You forgot Buhari was a Fulani when you elected him in 2019 despite all the hardships he inflicted on Nigerians. E go shock you! Arewa zasu baku mamaki ai.

raumdeuter:


Which is the worse one. After Buhari
A Tinubu Moslem-Moslem or an Atiku Fulani Moslem

Do you think the NC you are concerned about will be okay with another 8yrs of a Fulani Moslem

I personally prefer Muslim Christian to Muslim Muslim...any day any time

PaChukwudi44:

Lol how did Emmanuel Macron emerge?

Tell us here!

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Peter Obi is on every body lips here

Where is that?

DontBullshitMe:

Yes. That's exactly my sentiment. I don't see Peter Obi Labour Party winning a single state. It's political suicide for such state and whatever region it happens.

Everyone knows he won't win so why bet on him when you can join forces with someone with a far better and realistic chance and further brighten the person's prospects??

Also, remember that a Tinubu presidency means SS/SE will wait 16 years. With Atiku, they will wait 8.

I think you are underrating Obi massively and I think he will win at least 2-3 states

aumeehn:
You will die of heart attack on election day! You are comparing Buhari and Tinubu. Thats insane!! Even if Buhari decided to contest for third term with all the wahala and poverty in the North he will with a landslide. Tinubu is not Buhari get that into your thick skull! Imagine Tinibu winning katsina and Zamfara hahahha and even Gombe and Bauchi! I laugh in Yoruba. Tinubu's outburst in Abeokuta cost him alot of voters! You have never been to the North you can only make your useless assumptions. Besides why do you think that all the Muslims in the North will vote for Tinubu? Is Atiku not a Muslim?

Hausawa sukace Kyawun abu shi ke saida shi a kasuwa, da Biki Gidan mkwabta gwara gidanku.

Fulbe vii, Hakkilo on sodata yide..
Vodugo Hunde bo sorrata horemun ha lumo.

You will die of heart attack on Election day, Fulani Hater!!! You are no different from that US police that killed a man just for being black. You forgot Buhari was a Fulani when you elected him in 2019 despite all the hardships he inflicted on Nigerians. E go shock you! Arewa zasu baku mamaki ai.

Madam calm down...everyone knows that O.P is a mischievous analyst

HIGHESTPOPORI:
A Muslim Muslim is worse,at least Atiku has a Christain vp.You don't want a Fulani Atiku but you want a Fulani vp for tinubu, stop decieving yourself

lol i thought i was the only person that smell the hypocrisy from his post. The dude is being emotional. He hate Fulani President but want Fulani VP.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You are deceiving yourself, where will tinubu get votes from in the South apart from Sw.Kwankwanso would win kano and you are given him 5%. All these tinubu urchins sef

There are 19 Northern states, Kano is just 1 of them.
Of total South States Tinubu will get 40% mainly from his SW base

raumdeuter:


This Obi movement is different than the previous 3rd force thing we have seen in the past. A lot of SE people felt betrayed by the PDP and they are ready to follow their man even if they lose.

If Obi's rising profile gets to a stage where it can upset things for Atiku, don't be shocked if he withdraws from the race. He can cite different reasons and back out to tilt it towards Atiku. Alot can still happen.

For now, Obi will struggle to get 1.5 million votes, win 0 states so he's not a threat for now.

The SE people who felt betrayed by PDP will rather not come out to vote at all than come out to queue and vote Labour Party that CANNOT WIN. Obi will put up a fair fight no doubt but he can't do much.

Did you watch Ekwenremadu's recent interview? Why are PDP SE politicians not decamping to Labour Party in solidarity with Peter Obi?

raumdeuter:


There are 19 Northern states, Kano is just 1 of them.
Of total South States Tinubu will get 40% mainly from his SW base

If tinubu get 40% in just SW, he is finished

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Kwankwanso on the ballot will clear Apc stronghold in Nw a big gain for Atiku and loss for tinubu

Last election in 2019, Kwankwaso was already out of APC. Max is for Kwankwanso to win Kano state