garfield1:


Oga,they may hate tinubu but will vote him.se and ss dont like atiku in 2019 but still voted him because of love for PDP.Oyo dont want another fulani in power...

As for makinde,adelabu and folarin will share Ibadan with him.folarin might win in oke Ogun and ogbomosho.not many people care about Muslim Muslim ticket

Toor If you think Seyi will struggle to win Oyo...then you are political novice...folarin wey people hate for ibadan...are u from Ibadan...don't sit somewhere in Abj or Lag and be doing nonsense permutation.....folarin wey rig himself to the APC ticket...and with that all bigwigs of the party don leave the party for him...na hin go beat seyi....I repeat Hatred for tinubu is high here....OYO and Ondo might not be flip by tinubu...

majole:
You try but I advice you to wait till vice for PDP is known. Plateau is weary of fulani so they would vote Muslim/Muslim ticket or Peter Obi? Just watch out cos MUSLIM/MUSLIM Ticket might not get 25% on the Plateau/Taraba

The population of Muslims in Taraba is about 45% and about 35% in plateau. There is no way APC will not get 40% (at worst case scenario) at both states. In fact, Tinubu isn't a Fulani while Atiku is seen a Fulani, the odds in both states favour Tinubu.

majole:


Who is Middlebelt Forum? Keep doing the thinking for us in Plateau. Your narrative must be right_ you can't be wrong Mr. Know all.

It is all permutations.no state has suffered in the hands of fulanis like plateau,benue own is even small so they can't tolerate another fulani.it is better to tolerate a southernmuslim than a fulani christian or pagan.I meant the smblf led by Edwin clark

Olaoluwa122:
Not in Oyo.....tinubu is well hated here...if Seyi decide to work for Atiku...Atiku might flip the state...though it might be close..

Hmmm

Olaoluwa122:
Toor If you think Seyi will struggle to win Oyo...then you are political novice...folarin wey people hate for ibadan...are u from Ibadan...don't sit somewhere in Abj or Lag and be doing nonsense permutation.....folarin wey rig himself to the APC ticket...and with that all bigwigs of the party don leave the party for him...na hin go beat seyi....I repeat Hatred for tinubu is high here....OYO and Ondo might not be flip by tinubu...

Hatred for a fulani like atiku is high.whether you vote or not,all Yoruba votes will be recorded for tinubu.we can allow makinde win but not atiku.don't forget makinde supported wike

You are as foolish and daft as your projection I only see you as a comedian on nairaland honestly

garfield1:
I still ask,is atiku overrated? Why did he fail to win any state in 2007? Why did he lost his polling unit and ward? Why didnt he clear his state like buhari cleared katsina? Why did he lose northeast to buhari from north west? Why did he get 25% in all northwest states but failed to get 25% in gombe,bauchi,borno or yobe? Why did borno and yobe and gombe give him the lowest votes? His highest vote was from Kaduna which he lost.he won Adamawa and taraba by 40000 votes.why couldn't he win any northern state massively? His bloc votes came from anambra,Enugu and delta.obi won his region for him but atiku couldn't deliver his own region.is atiku overrated?

Forget about 2007 in any of your political calculations. You can't even find that result anywhere not even with INEC. That was the most useless RIGGING IN OUR HISTORY & becos of that AN IGBO person might never be INEC boss in the next 20 years

rockmite:


The population of Muslims in Taraba is about 45% and about 35% in plateau. There is no way APC will not get 40% (at worst case scenario) at both states. In fact, Tinubu isn't a Fulani while Atiku is seen a Fulani, the odds in both states favour Tinubu.

Or.with the recent imposition of another jukun in taraba by danjuma,other tribes are angry.Christians in the north even prefer voting for southerners than northern Muslims.

[quote author=garfield1 post=114024727]

Hatred for a fulani like atiku is high.whether you vote or not,all Yoruba votes will be recorded for tinubu.we can allow makinde win but not atiku.don't forget makinde supported wike [/quote I will say it again Tinubu might not win Ondo and Oyo...check 2015 and 2019 election result in both state...

Olatunji1929:
You are as foolish and daft as your projection I only see you as a comedian on nairaland honestly

Cc mynd44, lalasticlala, oamj rule 2 and 4 broken.he insulted and threatened someone

[quote author=Olaoluwa122 post=114024805][/quote]

Was tinubu on the ballot?

Fahdiga:
I bet the OP doesn't know what is coming. Wait until Obi tsunami hit you before you will learn

u people has lost touch with reality just like d Biafra madness of then

So u are saying obi will win all states 100%

majole:


Forget about 2007 in any of your political calculations. You can't even find that result anywhere not even with INEC. That was the most useless RIGGING IN OUR HISTORY & becos of that AN IGBO person might never be INEC boss in the next 20 years

Okowa might struggle to give bloc votes to atiku

garfield1:


Was tinubu on the ballot?

Alaye forget...Osun state would be a yardstick to see how tinubu will perform in oyo..

rockmite:


The population of Muslims in Taraba is about 45% and about 35% in plateau. There is no way APC will not get 40% (at worst case scenario) at both states. In fact, Tinubu isn't a Fulani while Atiku is seen a Fulani, the odds in both states favour Tinubu.

YOU DON'T KNOW ANYTHING. SO IF TARABA IS 45% THEN ALL OF THEM WOULD VOTE FOR TINUBU? SO KANO THAT IS 96% MUSLIM MEANING TINUBU WOULD GET 90% THERE? YOUR THINKING IS DISTURBING

garfield1:




Okowa might struggle to give bloc votes to atiku

Geez...so delta people will leave their son and vote for Tinubu ba??sometimes you just write nonsense with confidence

garfield1:


It is all permutations.no state has suffered in the hands of fulanis like plateau,benue own is even small so they can't tolerate another fulani.it is better to tolerate a southernmuslim than a fulani christian or pagan.I meant the smblf led by Edwin clark

Don't try to think for everybody. Atiku is a well known person to Nigerians. MUSLIM/MUSLIM TICKET SCARES THE HELL OF APC CANDIDATES ON THE PLATEAU. GO FIND OUT

garfield1:


Tinubu will win convincingly in borno,yobe,zamfara and katsina and then then the north central and south west.all he needs is a narrow win in the north.infact,if he loses the north narrowly and wins the sw convincingly while atiku struggles in ss,its all over.

Pending the outcome of his VP candidate, you can't be sure Tinubu will win North Central. If he goes Muslim/Muslim, he loses NC, no story. His performance in Southern states will reduce too.

See, let's be factual. The best Tinubu can do in SW is 70% (that's an overestimation sev). In South South, he loses outrightly to PDP. In SE, he loses outrightly to PDP too. Remember that Tinubu is not Buhari, he can never do Buhari's number in NW and Kwankwanso will pinch votes off him so I believe he will win but it will be narrow especially if he goes Muslim/Christian.

Tinubu needs to win the North. Infact he must win the North.

Like I have always been saying, SE and SS will be won by PDP. Take it to the bank. Atiku will have a very impressive outing in NE and NC. Infact, he can possibly win one of the 2 zones.

Tinubu's major problem is this : He is a Southern candidate that will outrightly lose 2 zones in the South. . .how does he survive that against a Northern candidate when he is not Buhari?? you tell me

Olaoluwa122:
The same Oyo state am residing in Seyi will win Oyo state before 5pm on election day...that's how much he is loved...adelabu with the help of former Ajimobi...what did he achieve...shey na now wey he dey mushroom party he wan challenge Seyi...Seyi is the biggest political Actor in OYO state...and his endorsement goes a long way....forget wetin Umahi dey yearn...ebonyi has always vote for P.DP...it will not be different in 2023...Though P.O might get a good showing there...and I see P.DP winning plateau also...if tinubu goes with his Muslim Muslim ticket...and finally...what is with are you okay...??

pdp will never win oyo in presidential election,the reason adelabu an unknown politician was presented in d last election was because teslim folarin had issues with ajimobi n they shenk folarin

Now that folarin is here seyi has no chance,don’t forget folarin has been around since n he gave akala a run for his money as governor so seyi makinde leg self dey shake for oyo n don’t forget his deputy just left him for apc

As regards ebonyi don’t forget umahi is there n he will put up a fight

garfield1:


Hatred for a fulani like atiku is high.whether you vote or not,all Yoruba votes will be recorded for tinubu.we can allow makinde win but not atiku.don't forget makinde supported wike

YORUBALAND IS FOR ASIWAJU 78%

Muslim Muslim ticket...tinubu will struggle to win Ekiti and ondo...That is how islamization agenda of Nigeria is spreading here...

garfield1:
Swing states are states that can be won by any party or candidate,they are battleground states and do not give bloc votes.they give marginal votes.in the USA,Florida,Nevada,Colorado etc are examples of swing states while in nigeria most states in the north central are swing states...

Nasarawa: apc/ buhari won here in 2019 for the first time by 8000 votes.even when buhari lost here,he still got 40%.2023 will be no different although apc might still win here narrowly due to the infighting in pdp and tje state exco is loyal to wike.The incumbent gov engr sule will be reelected..labour should get up to 20% here

Kogi: the okun yorubas will join forces with the ebiras to deliver for tinubu while the igalas will vote atiku narrowly..a narrow win for apc will suffice.labour party will get at least 10%

Benue: in 2015 apc won Benue for the first time winning 9 out of 23 LGAs due to bloc votes from zone b..buhari lost in 2019 by 7000 votes inspite of the hatred and outcry against with...with the middle belt looking favourably at the south and not wanting another fulani ruler and with the rev alia tsunami,tinubu should win here narrowly.labour party should get 25% here

Fct: the three major parties will get at least 30% here but it might swing narrowly to labour party.

Bayelsa; this state usually gives buhari his lowest votes.he got less than 5000 in 2015 but surprisingly and miraculously got 117,000 while PDP got 180,000.with the unpopularity of diri and the rise of apc here,apc might just win it or get at lest 45%.obi should get 20%.

Cross river:apc got 30% in 2019 despite not having any elected official.with the governor now in apc and almost all elected officials at the grassroot and the guber cabdidate being very popular and with the back to south movement gaining momentum, it might swing to APC although PDP still has a slight advantage.labour should get 25% here.the party was very popular here between 2011 and 2015.APC will win the guber here

Edo: Edo will swing badly.apc lost the state by 8000 votes in 2019 despite winning more LGAs.with the governor losing the party structure to wike and thinking of defecting and the Dan orbih faction not keen to work for atiku and with the historical affinity of the state to the west,apc should win here narrowly with labour taking second place.PDP will take third. .

Ondo,ekiti,Oyo: these states swung in the past but with tinubu a son of the soil,an omoluabi on the ballot,they might just deliver bloc votes to apc...

Sokoto: buhari lost here in 2007 and struggled to win here in 2019.with tambuwal contesting for senate,atiku might narrowly win here.obi will not see 10% here but the apc guber candidate Ahmed aliyu will win this state..


Kebbi; this would have been a safe state but with sen adamu aliero and sen yahaya joining PDP with many bigwigs,it might swung narrowly to atiku.atiku has a lot of strong loyallists here led by the turakin gwandu kabiru tanimu.obi won't see 5% here even from the Christians in zuru...nasiru idris is the next governor

Kaduna: this state can go either way but apc should have a narrow win here based on the dexterity of el rufai and sani.sani is the next governor

Gombe: it should be safe for tinubu but PDP is growing stronger here and the political grandmaster sen goje is an associate of atiku though in apc.a narrow win for tinubu or atiku will suffice.

Plateau:it is a PDP state normally but the people are tired and weary of the fulani hegemony and attacks.they might just decide to switch to tinubu but PDP still has the advantage while obi should get 10%

Ebonyi:this state will swing heavily but obi should win it with tinubu and atiku tagging along respectively.


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Kyase
Kahal
Frowland
Warriaproko
Oghenaogie
Noethnicity
Cajal
Quotasystem
Ogidigboigbo
Tutudesz
Moferere

Hmm

Olatunji1929:
You are as foolish and daft as your projection I only see you as a comedian on nairaland honestly

Garfield1 you hear what they are calling you? Change your ways

Reality3080:
pdp will never win oyo in presidential election,the reason adelabu an unknown politician was presented in d last election was because teslim folarin had issues with ajimobi n they shenk folarin

Now that folarin is here seyi has no chance,don’t forget folarin has been around since n he gave akala a run for his money as governor so seyi makinde leg self dey shake for oyo n don’t forget his deputy just left him for apc

As regards ebonyi don’t forget umahi is there n he will put up a fight

My brr should we place a bet...Seyi will OYO before 6pm on election day...Folarin rig his way to that ticket...bigwigs of Progressive party don abadon him people like Chief Niyi Akintola...Penkelemesi...even Dr Adedutan and so many more.....Folarin don't even have a chance...

Reality3080:
pdp will never win oyo in presidential election,the reason adelabu an unknown politician was presented in d last election was because teslim folarin had issues with ajimobi n they shenk folarin

Now that folarin is here seyi has no chance,don’t forget folarin has been around since n he gave akala a run for his money as governor so seyi makinde leg self dey shake for oyo n don’t forget his deputy just left him for apc

As regards ebonyi don’t forget umahi is there n he will put up a fight

The day for gubernatorial and Presidential elections are different.

Seyi Makinde will win Oyo. No doubt. Don't bet against it.

It is Tinubu that should be worried. if he's not careful, he will encounter some very big problems in Oyo. Though he will win.

Olaoluwa122:
Not in Oyo.....tinubu is well hated here...if Seyi decide to work for Atiku...Atiku might flip the state...though it might be close..

who hate tinubu for oyo state

Teslim is for him
Ladoja openly admit he will work for him
Lekan balogun is for him
Them sarafadeen ali,all other big wigs are for him n don’t forget seyi is d only pdp governor in d south west n he just had issues with fayose n co meaning he’s a political orphan right now

If all the south west governors with the big wigs n tinubu enter oyo n gang up against him,let’s see how he will survive it

Don’t forget teslim folarin is a real don n son of d soil n he’s been around since n seyi is just a one time governor

Seyi will b fighting fir his head right now n I can assure u he’s busy trying to scale d hurdles before him n he doesn’t have time for any atiku not even when them shenk wike his closest pal

garfield1:




Okowa might struggle to give bloc votes to atiku

Do you think Peter Obi added any reasonable vote to Atiku in 2019? Nope. Okowa is a save candidate. Do no harm. I believe he is a good candidate would have preferred Ihedioha but trying to get Maximum vote in Delta is also a wise option and he checks a lot of boxes including Finance

Reality3080:
who hate tinubu for oyo state

Teslim is for him
Ladoja openly admit he will work for him
Lekan balogun is for him
Them sarafadeen ali,all other big wigs are for him n don’t forget seyi is d only pdp governor in d south west n he just had issues with fayose n co meaning he’s a political orphan right now

If all the south west governors with the big wigs n tinubu enter oyo n gang up against him,let’s see how he will survive it

Don’t forget teslim folarin is a real don n son of d soil n he’s been around since n seyi is just a one time governor

Seyi will b fighting fir his head right now n I can assure u he’s busy trying to scale d hurdles before him n he doesn’t have time for any atiku not even when them shenk wike his closest pal

We thank for the new electoral act...Rigging will minized to the barest minimum....All those politician you mention what's their electoral value??..apart from Chief Ladoja...Seyi will win...people in Oyo love him genuinely

Olaoluwa122:
Alaye forget...Osun state would be a yardstick to see how tinubu will perform in oyo..

Exactly. If APC doesn't win Osun by 55% then there might be trouble for TINUBU. If APC doesn't get 55% then Tinubu won't get 75% there

Olaoluwa122:
Geez...so delta people will leave their son and vote for Tinubu ba??sometimes you just write nonsense with confidence

Tell him. I Taya for his PRO _ TINUBU ANALYSIS

majole:



Exactly. If APC doesn't win Osun by 55% then there might be trouble for TINUBU. If APC doesn't get 55% then Tinubu won't get 75% there

Boss....tinubu might flip Oyo...But 75% is much...something in the range of 55% APC to 45 %PDP

DontBullshitMe:

Pending the outcome of his VP candidate, you can't be sure Tinubu will win North Central. If he goes Muslim/Muslim, he loses NC, no story. His performance in Southern states will reduce too.

See, let's be factual. The best Tinubu can do in SW is 70% (that's an overestimation sev). In South South, he loses outrightly to PDP. In SE, he loses outrightly to PDP too. Remember that Tinubu is not Buhari, he can never do Buhari's number in NW and Kwankwanso will pinch votes off him so I believe he will win but it will be narrow especially if he goes Muslim/Christian.

Tinubu needs to win the North. Infact he must win the North.

Like I have always been saying, SE and SS will be won by PDP. Take it to the bank. Atiku will have a very impressive outing in NE and NC. Infact, he can possibly win one of the 2 zones.

Tinubu's major problem is this : He is a Southern candidate that will outrightly lose 2 zones in the South. . .how does he survive that against a Northern candidate when he is not Buhari?? you tell me

CAN YOU PUT THAT IN AUDIO FOR GARFIELD1?