DontBullshitMe:

Pending the outcome of his VP candidate, you can't be sure Tinubu will win North Central. If he goes Muslim/Muslim, he loses NC, no story. His performance in Southern states will reduce too.

See, let's be factual. The best Tinubu can do in SW is 70% (that's an overestimation sev). In South South, he loses outrightly to PDP. In SE, he loses outrightly to PDP too. Remember that Tinubu is not Buhari, he can never do Buhari's number in NW and Kwankwanso will pinch votes off him so I believe he will win but it will be narrow especially if he goes Muslim/Christian.

Tinubu needs to win the North. Infact he must win the North.

Like I have always been saying, SE and SS will be won by PDP. Take it to the bank. Atiku will have a very impressive outing in NE and NC. Infact, he can possibly win one of the 2 zones.

Tinubu's major problem is this : He is a Southern candidate that will outrightly lose 2 zones in the South. . .how does he survive that against a Northern candidate when he is not Buhari?? you tell me

garfield1:


The worst thing plateau fear is fulani or a core north candidate.everybody knows that tinubu is not a radical Muslim.they will prefer him to atiku.the middle belt forum has already rejected atiku and endorsed apc/labour

garfield1:


Pdp was united in delta at then but now ibori is fighting okowa.even in delta north,he is facing a hurdles from nwaoboshi.delta central is a no go area.

Olaoluwa122:
Tinubu Can never flip Edo state...shey u dey mind him ni??...Atiku and P.O will shared the vote there

DontBullshitMe:
Going by your analysis.

I struggle to see the path for Tinubu's victory.

If Tinubu cannot convincingly win Kebbi, Kaduna and Kano. How on earth will he win?

raumdeuter:


Atiku and PO sharing votes in Edo is bad news for both side

Assuming it should normally be APC 40% PDP 60%, Now it might end up being APC 40% PDP 30% LP 30%

Miracle2020:
According to tinubu crumbs eater abi?
Mr man,you should know that tinubu will not win even one state in the north. Buhari have a cult followers and buhari followers will not vote for tinubu because of his outburst against buhari in ogun state. Mind you,I am a northerner and iam speaking the mind of northern voters.

walefresh3:

Tinubu just only need 30% votes from those state u mentioned... Automatically
Tinubu will win .. 9 states without serious challenge...
Lagos
Ogun
Oyo
Ondo
Edo
Osun
Ekiti
Kwara
Kogi annd some part of benue

Olaoluwa122:
Lol...Is either Atiku or P.O win the state...tinubu na distant third...

walefresh3:

Tinubu just only need 30% votes from those state u mentioned... Automatically
Tinubu will win .. 9 states without serious challenge...
Lagos
Ogun
Oyo
Ondo
Edo
Osun
Ekiti
Kwara
Kogi annd some part of benue

Reality3080:
u people has lost touch with reality just like d Biafra madness of then

So u are saying obi will win all states 100%

Miracle2020:
you will not see those crumbs again after the election. Atiku is the next president, it will be very hard for apc to get 3rd position.

walefresh3:

Tinubu just only need 30% votes from those state u mentioned... Automatically
Tinubu will win .. 9 states without serious challenge...
Lagos
Ogun
Oyo
Ondo
Edo
Osun
Ekiti
Kwara...then Atiku should also win this state easily...delta Cross River..River...Taraba...Enugu..Adamawa...Akwaibom...Nasarawa....Ebonyi
Kogi annd some part of benue

raumdeuter:


Who are these North Central? Kogi Kwara Niger Nasarawa Plateau and Benue

Regardless of Moslem-Moslem Kogi Kwara Nasarawa and Niger are predominantly Moslems and they wont have a problem with Moslem-Moslem

The only 2 NC states that are majority Christians are Benue and Plateau. So the choice for them is between Tinubu Moslem-Moslem ticket, Atiku -Fulani Moslem, or Obi - Rlatively unknown with no structure

majole:


I wonder how people think. So any state that is majority Muslim means Tinubu would win? Is Atiku going to contest in those states too? Why did Tinubu announce his VICE? HE IS a goner the moment he announces his vice weather a Muslim or a Christian

garfield1:


The apc structure is too strong in the north,PDP is weak.no matter what,tinubu will win the north.atiku can only win some northern states,that's all...infact,worse case scenario is a narrow win for tinubu...atiku is not a popular candidate to galvanise people to vote him like buhari.tinubu personally has enormous structures and goodwill up north.atiku will has already lost the south east. He will only win narrowly in the ss that's if he doesnt lose.if atiku isn't careful,he might win nil region tinubu has at least one region on lockdown,atiku has none

DontBullshitMe:

Yes, Tinubu can/will narrowly win the North but it might not be enough. He needs to do better to be extremely safe considering that there will be higher voters' turn out down South where he is weak.

In 2019.

North Total (NW+NE+NC)
APC - 11,700,033 (68.34%)
PDP - 5,421,107 (31.66%)
Total - 17,121,140 (APC & PDP only)

You see Buhari took 68% in total North. Almost 70%. Meaning he maxed out the North winning the 3 zones. If Tinubu does anything below 60% in total North, he will have problems.


South Total (SW+SE+SS) ;
APC - 3,491,814 (37.97%)
PDP - 5,703,387 (62.03%)
Total - 9,195,201 (APC & PDP only)


Though, going by 2019 Southern region results. Things look a bit promising for APC, no doubt especially If they can maintain this % or even slightly increase on it since a Southerner is their flag bearer.

A 40%+ for APC down South will wreck Atiku once Tinubu wins the North but he needs 60% to be extremely safe.

Also, do you think Northern voters will maintain their high voters turn out (almost doubled the South) like they did in 2019??

Olaoluwa122:
Remove Edo Edo Ondo plss

majole:


BRO I HOPE YOU ARE NOT THE OPPOSITE OF GARFIELD1? GARFIELD1 IS PRO_ TINUBU & IT SEEMS YOU ARE ANTI_TINUBU? I BELIEVE EDO IS REALLY GOING TO BE TOSS UP. ANY OF THE 3 MIGHT WIN THOUGH I SEE ATIKU 1ST, TINUBU 2ND IN EDO

Prince111111:
This guy makes me laugh with his beer parlor analysis

Olaoluwa122:
Lol...Is either Atiku or P.O win the state...tinubu na distant third...

majole:


BRO I HOPE YOU ARE NOT THE OPPOSITE OF GARFIELD1? GARFIELD1 IS PRO_ TINUBU & IT SEEMS YOU ARE ANTI_TINUBU? I BELIEVE EDO IS REALLY GOING TO BE TOSS UP. ANY OF THE 3 MIGHT WIN THOUGH I SEE ATIKU 1ST, TINUBU 2ND IN EDO

raumdeuter:


From the news today, It seems Obaseki is pro-Obi and any ground Obi gains is bad news for Atiku

Olaoluwa122:
Yes boss am proudly anti tinubu...I think atiku will win edo...and P.O will take 40 to 45%

garfield1:


Guy,what exactly is your problem? What do you gain from a northern presidency? Are you not tired of fulani supremacy

raumdeuter:


Who are these North Central? Kogi Kwara Niger Nasarawa Plateau and Benue

Regardless of Moslem-Moslem Kogi Kwara Nasarawa and Niger are predominantly Moslems and they wont have a problem with Moslem-Moslem

The only 2 NC states that are majority Christians are Benue and Plateau. So the choice for them is between Tinubu Moslem-Moslem ticket, Atiku -Fulani Moslem, or Obi - Rlatively unknown with no structure

raumdeuter:


So lets test your Maths. Obi takes 40 to 45% accoding to you. Now what percentage will Atiku take to win and what percentage will Tinubu take

Show the numbers

majole:
Which state is Tinubu winning in the NW apart from Zamfara & Maybe Katsina?
In the NE he is winning YOBE/BORNO

IN THE NC He is winning Kwara & maybe Kogi.
Tinubu might not get 25% in Taraba/plateau & maybe Kano

DontBullshitMe:

The thing about Muslim-Muslim ticket is that only Muslim extremists will see nothing wrong with it. Moderate Muslims might not support it out of sympathy. Like after Buhari's 8 years, Nigeria moves to a Muslim-Muslim ticket? The ticket will do well in NE and NW but that's where it ends. Also, consider that the Media will be harsh on the arrangement so much that some moderate Muslims will rather go for a Muslim-Christian ticket with a Muslim President as well.

So, In as much as majority of the NC states are Muslims, it does not mean they will necessarily be receptive of a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Though I believe that Atiku's Fulani ethnicity will cause him problems too.

Truth is : The race is too close to call especially with the emergence of LP and NNPP. Voting patterns can change.

DontBullshitMe:

The thing about Muslim-Muslim ticket is that only Muslim extremists will see nothing wrong with it. Moderate Muslims might not support it out of sympathy. Like after Buhari's 8 years, Nigeria moves to a Muslim-Muslim ticket? The ticket will do well in NE and NW but that's where it ends. Also, consider that the Media will be harsh on the arrangement so much that some moderate Muslims will rather go for a Muslim-Christian ticket with a Muslim President as well.

So, In as much as majority of the NC states are Muslims, it does not mean they will necessarily be receptive of a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Though I believe that Atiku's Fulani ethnicity will cause him problems too.

Truth is : The race is too close to call especially with the emergence of LP and NNPP. Voting patterns can change.