leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

This guy is from the so called North,ad you think his analysis is one sided. You people fail to understand the North.

The North Muslims don't have the numbers they claim, atleast we saw it 2011, where they all voted Buhari and he lost by 12 million votes, if the South and Northern Christians are united, the Northern Muslims will not smell presidency again.

The North noticed this, then they reached out to Tinubu and Ameachi to break the South votes.

Oghene1st:
I always tell people that if the South is United, the core North will be a slave to the South forever. If you check the voting pattern, Plateau and Taraba always lean towards Southern Candidates. Also likely is Benue, Kogi and Kwara because these ones don't consider themselves Northerners.

Once the South is United for a candidate, the above mentioned northern states will tilt towards Southern Candidate come 2023.

But since the South is divided, the South East and South South (Christian dominated parts in the South) have upper hand in wooing Christian dominated Northern state of Taraba, Plateau and Benue for Obi by religious campaign while Kogi and Kwara will definitely go for Tinubu. Then, Obi, Tinubu and Atiku can share the votes in core North. Obi should use Christian base campaign in the core North so that Christian voters in Adamawa, Nasarawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Yobe, Kaduna, etc can vote Obi while Tinubu uses Muslim/Muslim ticket to steal those Muslims in Muslim dominated states in North like Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Niger, etc.

The truth is, I am one of those southerners that don't see the north as threat to us. History is there. We are talking about civilian admin, not military. Buhari couldn't have won without South West in 2015 and 2019.

South should start seeing themselves as kingmakers in this country, because we are.

As it stands, Atiku is the 3rd force.

how south wan take unite like this.if u r talking about regional unity give it to the north.
Jus looknat the way they stepped down for each oda in the jus concluded primaries.can u say the same abt the south.even south east alone had like 3/4 candidates under APC in the last primaries

In Essence Obi and Jangabandit are losing and Atiku is going to win.
Atiku is going to win
South-South including Edo the Obidients are happy about.
Win in Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi and Abia. We will leave Anambra for them and our man Obi. we will just get our percentage and move.
Win in Oyo, Osun and Ondo.
Clear the North Central convincingly.
Win in Kaduna , Kano (not by a wide margin), Katsina, Sokoto(convincingly) and either of Kebbi or Jigawa.
* North East will be an easy ride.
Wake-up, there's no Buhari again. It's Atiku against a Lagos champion and a good man who will be our Economic minister(Obi).
You're in Lagos, you're shouting Obi will clear SE. Don't go and vote in your states oo. North will move sharpaly

Buddha3:


I read your comment with an open mind until I got to your last paragraph.

That the votes Atiku got from the entire South East were just about tantamount to what Kano state produced, hitherto making the SE region inconsequential, going by your submission.

I am from Cross River state but let me relay a certain advise an elder from Plateau state once gave to me: Should you travel to anywhere within the four cardinal points of Nigeria and don't find an Igbo man within a 100 yards of your residential abode owning a small kiosk or doing a roadside business, pack up your bags and leave that location immediately.

What some of you fail to understand is that the voting strength of the South East is widely spread across the lengths and breadth of the entire country. Igbos are sojourners. So what you consider to be the voting strength of the South West is quite honestly an influx of other tribes, mostly the Igbos. If the Igbos were to conglomerate in their region during elections as is the case during festive celebrations, I promise you, this nonsense you put up there about the South West being the voting strength of the entire Southern region would make you appear unintelligible.

It's largely nauseating the way some of you Nigerians always tend to undermine the relevance of another tribe just to sound politically correct.

Lagos State is the highest voting state in the south for obvious reasons.

And account for Atleast 50% of the total votes of the South West.

But some people are mistaking it for Tinubu votes.

Osinbajo of the apc lost his polling unit to pdp in lekki in 2019.

That says it all.

barbstee:
No one region can make the presidency by themselves and this is what the Easterners seems not to understand you can't keep hating people and expect them to turn around and support you during election.
It doesn't work that way.

That said there is no doubt in the fact that the North has the number and the needed unity for elections unlike the south


BAT 2023

the op even called northerners riffraffs.

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]

I don't trust this writer, he is a wolf in sheep skin.

Obidient4life2:
In 2011 Jonathan won Buhari with 11 million votes while Buhari won Jonathan with just 2 million votes.
In election every region has a say.

That's because north central and south west voted for him massively and he lost those regions in 2015 Jonathan made a huge mistake when he abandoned those 2 regions and was trying to woe north west who never voted for him in the first elections, he should have maintained his winning team(SS,SE, SW AND NC) but...

CSTRR:

Go and check the votes Jonathan got in the South in 2011.

That is the true test of the south.

Apathy is the problem. People don't care to use their PVC in the south.

And recently, the PVC rush is in the south more, according to INEC.

So the south will vote a lot this time.

Prepare to be surprised.

in Nigeria election, 4 regions are mostly dormant. SS SE, NW, NE.
There are two regions deviod of nepotism. SW and NC.
Now go back and check.
Jonathan won all these regions.
Also note 2011 cases of rigging was overly possible cos of no card readers hence the reason states like anambra were all having million votes.

babayinka77:

Nice analysis..but you forgot some few points.
1. Middle belt is going to favour Asiwaju..Kwara and Kogi are already in the kitty...Nasarawa and Niger are also most likely I can only give Benue and Plateau state to both Atiku and Obi. Benue most likely will go to PDP because of Ortom's influence.
2. Even if Buhari has not performed well in security; his core followers will still preffer him to an Atiku. Infact A dead Buhari has a political value in the North.
3. Atiku is a fulani..core Hausa's might opt for Asiwaju since he is a Muslim.
4. Like it or not, the south West will ensure a massive vote for their own (Regardless of what happened in Osun) people will vote for candidates majorly and not party.
5. Tinubu's V.P candidate is a strong man in the north and will attract many votes for Asiwaju in that space (Especially North east).
6. Truth be told, a Muslim Norther will surely find it difficult to vote for an Ibo christian because of tolerance issues. They prefer a Yoruba Christian..Yorubas are liberal and far more accommodating.

Having said all that; Obi's movement is strong and ravaging. A lot of damages could be done to both APC and PDP if they play the right politics and move away from using the Churches as a political tool. Using the churches will further reinforce the fact that Obi is playing religious card and that his government may not favour muslims. We still have some few liberals in the north tho who do not care about religion. A good political strategy could win the election for Peter Obi; But I think Asiwaju is in the lead right now.

I like the last few lines that assert the fact that without restructuring nothing good can emerge from this tired process of elections.

For those who believe Peter Obi as being the best candidate (and perhaps rightly so) the fact that 'the system/structure' has to push him to 'play the religious card' just to gain traction/traffic shows that successful leadership is just a mirage.

For if he gets there by this fact/strategy he will have to rule/govern by this strategy and poof goes all the lofty ideals/ideas. They will all have to be sacrificed on the altar of religious expediency. For you cannot train with cats and then act with dogs, it won't work.

Nigeria can only progress if we collectively and simultaneously agree to surrender our armoury of sentiment to kill with finality all mutual suspicion that has led to mutual destruction the past 60 years.

We need to start true ISSUE based politicking indeed.

On point analysis, i have said said it over time,the south and south east have the strongest voting strengths and their voting patterns have remained same over the years, i see nothing changing in this election.

If obi can get up to 80% vote from south south and south east, with 40% vote from the north central, he might likely win the election, don't allow anybody to deceive you ,northern votes are for Atiku and kwankwaso,go to BBC hausa Facebook page and confirm for yourself.

jumper524:
in Nigeria election, 4 regions are mostly dormant. SS SE, NW, NE.
There are two regions deviod of nepotism. SW and NC.
Now go back and check.
Jonathan won all these regions.
Also note 2011 cases of rigging was overly possible cos of no card readers hence the reason states like anambra were all having million votes.

Jonathan made huge mistake when, he should have tried all his best to keep NC and SW but he was busy trying to woe NW...

Jagaban must see this

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]


More wisdom and God's grace to you.

I am happy this is coming to light. I keep telling people that we give too much credit to the core North. Those guys cannot decide who will be the president of Nigeria all by themselves. Anybody that can win SE, SW, SS, and NC can become president of Nigeria without NW n NE. I am still surprised why the middle belt align with the core North without benefiting anything politically.

The simple issue is that the South does not votes due to voter's apathy. Not the South, even Christains. If everyone votes according to their faith, Peter Obi will win this election before 12:00 o clock on election day. There are about 10 states in the SS n SE that are nearly 100 per cent Christains. In fact, there are more christain majority states in Nigeria than Muslim majority states. There is no single state in Nigeria without indigenous christain population. I hope this Muslim Muslim ticket will galvanize Christains to come n vote in 2023. This Muslim Muslim ticket is a slap on the face of christains in Nigeria. APC took the christain community for granted because christains don't vote. They will never try fielding a christain christain ticket because of that is a sure guarantee for losing an election.

jumper524:
the op even called northerners riffraffs.

Don't mind them.
They fail to learn year in year out

Imagine

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]

Peter Obi cannot win for 1 simple reason: he cannot get 25% in 24 states……impossible!!!!’

Oghene1st:
I always tell people that if the South is United, the core North will be a slave to the South forever. If you check the voting pattern, Plateau and Taraba always lean towards Southern Candidates. Also likely is Benue, Kogi and Kwara because these ones don't consider themselves Northerners.

Once the South is United for a candidate, the above mentioned northern states will tilt towards Southern Candidate come 2023.

But since the South is divided, the South East and South South (Christian dominated parts in the South) have upper hand in wooing Christian dominated Northern state of Taraba, Plateau and Benue for Obi by religious campaign while Kogi and Kwara will definitely go for Tinubu. Then, Obi, Tinubu and Atiku can share the votes in core North. Obi should use Christian base campaign in the core North so that Christian voters in Adamawa, Nasarawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Yobe, Kaduna, etc can vote Obi while Tinubu uses Muslim/Muslim ticket to steal those Muslims in Muslim dominated states in North like Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Niger, etc.

The truth is, I am one of those southerners that don't see the north as threat to us. History is there. We are talking about civilian admin, not military. Buhari couldn't have won without South West in 2015 and 2019.

South should start seeing themselves as kingmakers in this country, because we are.

As it stands, Atiku is the 3rd force.

I laugh at South low self esteem, the North don't have the numbers when you remove Christians vote from the North. We saw it in 2011. The North Muslims won't smell presidency if the South and North Christians vote in one voice.

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote] ur analysis about north is nothing but a big lie.
1stly who made Obasanjo president?. Northerners!.since 1999 PDP has a good political party structure in the north or in Nigeria atlarge.When Buhari was contesting it's only masses that liked Buhari but almost all the northern governors are in PDP and they are always working for their party victory at elections,thats the major reason why Buhari is contesting and failing till 2015 when some PDP governors work out and formed merger with APC. All of you internet analyst your eyes will clear after the election because by then you will all understand what's called party structure because Peter Obi is going no where!!!

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]

Your analysis is cut out of reality and it is flawed. Maybe because you want to cede it to Obi. But listen man. In 2011, the election that Buhari lost to Jonathan, Buhari lost Abuja, Kogi and Kwara as swing states that we could still count as part of the North by virtue of demographic designs. Gej had about 58.9% in Abuja, 71.17% in Kogi and 68.7% approx in Kwara. Gej even went ahead to win Nasarawa in a landslide form and plateau about 72% then Taraba about 61%. He also won Borno about 77%. Whereas the rest of the votes were shared by Buhari CPC, Nuhu Ribadu ACN and Sekarau of NNPP. Whereas Jonathan went ahead to clear all the Southern votes. Among all the aforementioned states, the only places Buhari had tangible votes were Kwara 20%, Kogi about 23.5%, plateau and Taraba 25.2% and 34.9% respectfully. Don’t let me forget that Buhari had 40.0% in Nasarawa. All the southern states(south south, south east and south west) he lost woefully. The highest he had in those states was Lagos maybe 9.2% or so.

Yet Buhari had about 12 M Votes from the core north excluding Borno. And he had just about 360k of the south. Remove 360k of the south from the votes and make a calculation.

Voting strength is indeed, without equivocal doubt is in the core north of Kastina, Kano and Borno and others. We can’t shy away from that fact.

Politicians make their calculations very well before elections by and large it can favorite them or mar them.

It will take a 7th wonder of the world miracle for Obi to win the election.

Oghene1st:
I always tell people that if the South is United, the core North will be a slave to the South forever. If you check the voting pattern, Plateau and Taraba always lean towards Southern Candidates. Also likely is Benue, Kogi and Kwara because these ones don't consider themselves Northerners.

Once the South is United for a candidate, the above mentioned northern states will tilt towards Southern Candidate come 2023.

But since the South is divided, the South East and South South (Christian dominated parts in the South) have upper hand in wooing Christian dominated Northern state of Taraba, Plateau and Benue for Obi by religious campaign while Kogi and Kwara will definitely go for Tinubu. Then, Obi, Tinubu and Atiku can share the votes in core North. Obi should use Christian base campaign in the core North so that Christian voters in Adamawa, Nasarawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Yobe, Kaduna, etc can vote Obi while Tinubu uses Muslim/Muslim ticket to steal those Muslims in Muslim dominated states in North like Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Niger, etc.

The truth is, I am one of those southerners that don't see the north as threat to us. History is there. We are talking about civilian admin, not military. Buhari couldn't have won without South West in 2015 and 2019.

South should start seeing themselves as kingmakers in this country, because we are.

As it stands, Atiku is the 3rd force.

I just wish u can hear the sound of my laughter as I went tru ur analysis aswear.get a note pad and write today's date down and write this against it "SAY OBI TRY TRY,AS IN HIM CATCH FIRE WELL WELL,HE WILL COME THIRD.U SEE THAT FIRST AND SECOND,HIM NO GO SMELL AM.THE CONTEST IS BETWEEN ATIKU AND TINUBU.NO WASTE UR TIME.U NO GO BELEIVE ME NOW,ITS TYPICAL OF U GUYS,BUT BY 2PM THAT DAY,UNA GO DON DEY SHOUT RIGGING UP AND DOWN.MAKE GOD SPARE OUR LIVES REACH DEN

You no get point

3ple9iner:
calculate the number of voters in the North and that in the South, you would get your answer.

A candidate can get 1m+ in the north and his closest rival could get 800k+ or 1m too.

In the south only few states can vote of this.


Also in the North, there is usually no voter apathy like in the south, though I believe it would change in this election.

You will also find that in the South.

Kano, Kaduna and maybe Katsina are the only States you have that number, while in the South, Rivers, Cross River, Lagos, Anambra also have that number.

Don't be deceived by North propaganda, we saw what happened in 2011, Rivers had more votes than the so called Kano.

3ple9iner:
calculate the number of voters in the North and that in the South, you would get your answer.

A candidate can get 1m+ in the north and his closest rival could get 800k+ or 1m too.

In the south only few states can vote of this.


Also in the North, there is usually no voter apathy like in the south, though I believe it would change in this election.

how many states in the south east or south south can give u 1m votes?how many?ask dem.as dey are even making it religious ba,e go worst.

Abdu81:
this election is going to change alot of things, especially views, when you remove the north central states how many core north states remains.

in the north central,pls remove kogi,Niger,nasarawa and Kwara in what ever calculation u are doing.u can have benue and plateau.

kolafolabi:
You joined a bus in 2015, the driver took you to 1984. In 2019, you refused to come down from the bus and the driver took you to 1960. Now the driver is tired but want his conductor to continue driving? You still no wan come down abi? Where do you think the conductor is going?

Very apt

egunna:
in the north central,pls remove kogi,Niger,nasarawa and Kwara in what ever calculation u are doing.u can have benue and plateau.

I swear I don't understand the hyped about north central. I was born in Jos and iam now in Niger state,but someone that never been to north/central will be busy typing rubbish. Even if the entire north central will vote along religion line, it's will be Muslim 70% and christian 30%. Anyone that dispute dis should check 2015 election result. In plateau that you are saying we should leave it for them Muslim has already dominated the capital city which Jos.

Abdu81:
this election is going to change alot of things, especially views, when you remove the north central states how many core north states remains.

What are you saying, come to the Northeast, 40 percent of voters will not vote PDP and APC, I am not saying this out of sentiments but that's the fact on ground.

The writer is absolutely right!

North does not have the four aces as they've been trying to portray. The middle belt that used to vote along with them have increasingly detached itself in recent times.

Looking critically at the voting pattern map, one can easily deduce that the areas that hitherto voted for Atiku are now firmly behind Obi. In other words, Atiku no longer has any base except he moves to secure new base(s). This situation has now directly pitched him against Tinubu and maybe Kwankwaso i.e. if he eventually contests without dropping for others.

Here is the demography of the likely voting pattern next year.

SS, SE, Abuja, and Christians in Middle Belt and SW are overwhelmingly going to vote for Obi. Nigerian workers too regardless of ethnic or religious considerations will also want to vote for Labour Party.

SW, particularly the Muslims, parts of NW & NE will vote for Tinubu. Aside Yoruba Muslims, no other demography will vote Tinubu overwhelmingly because he would definitely share votes with Atiku & Kwankwaso (if he doesn't withdraw from the race) in the core Muslim parts of NW and NE.

What these statistics mean in essence is that while Obi has his support base firmly in his hands, Tinubu and Atiku on the other hand will have to fight with each other and should there be a stalemate i.e. the two of them checkmating each other in NW and NE, then Obi automatically has the advantage.

With the momentum Obi's movement is gathering, there is no doubt he would eventually hold the entire SS and SE on lockdown and same will happen with Christians of the North, especially as Bachir Lawal and Yakubu Dogara continues to create awareness in the region.

If elections are held today, Obi will likely win. To worsen the predicament of his two main rivals, he continues to gain in popularity while the others continue to lose grounds.

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]

Thank you for this.
It is a true write up....this is the absolute truth.
Some mischievous people have been trying to change the narrative use fake cooked up propaganda but the truth will always prevail.

The south has upper hands.
Just imagine how the game will change if the SE&SS overturn voter aparthy and their hug e communities out their zone votes in mass.
The truth will show.

They know this that is why they start the discouragement of southern voters during registration and using propaganda of imaginery northern voters strength.

In all every region needs each other to win so no region should be feeling more important.

Forget them, they don't know what is about to hit the Northern and Religious Bigot Contestant ..

thinkmoney:

You are intelligent. please let's become friends in real life. Please.
It's a myth that the north are significantly more than us. Even that term north is mischievous. There are actually many diverse tribes in those region, probably more than we have in the south here. What have been making the difference and making it look like they decide who becomes president is that they take electioneering activities like a religious duty. They stand up and show up at elections. I hypothesise that more than 90% of people that can vote show up, while just about 40% show up here in the south.
From some indices now, I am having strong grounds to think that Christians might even be in the majority in this country.
Further more, the 20+ million number of voters in the northwest also comprises significant people of igbo ethnicity. Igbos that live outside of southeast are more really than igbos that live in the southeast
Southerners, people of central Nigeria and Christian's generally should become really aware politically and get responsible politically. We should start taking elections as what it is really, a matter of prestige and survival.
It still pains me really, when I at this age, speak with some fellow southerners and I hear them say they are not so much interested in politics that what matters to them is their business. I say to them though that politics is more importantly than business, power more important than money. It's when u have peace and security that u can engage in business.

You are right. I said this same Thing to one guy few days back.