kolafolabi:
You joined a bus in 2015, the driver took you to 1984. In 2019, you refused to come down from the bus and the driver took you to 1960. Now the driver is tired but want his conductor to continue driving? You still no wan come down abi? Where do you think the conductor is going?

I like your analysis..spot on
If only people will be wise.
A lot foolish citizens needs to drop foolishness for the benefit of the nation and all.

Starcrest1:
This analysis is on point. But let me add something, You could see how northerners voted Buhari always even though he changes party like water, parties without structure. This is for the structure people.

Secondly this time around, three people that will share the northern votes are Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso, so I wonder how they will be banking on the bulk votes there. Obi is winning this unless two people steps down from the three I mentioned above.

Thank you very much, I have been lazy to open a thread about this structure of a thing.

In 2011, Buhari formed his own party, CPC with no S talk more of structure, he got 12 million votes from the North, here they are talking about structure. Who structure help, when they talk about structure, they mean people that can sponsor vote buying.

casualobserver:


Peter Obi cannot win for 1 simple reason: he cannot get 25% in 24 states……impossible!!!!’

where do you get this From from?Last I checked you don't need to win a certain percentage in every states. But a certain percentage of the total Nigeria State..I think 2/3 of 36 , if I can still remember, which makes it 24. and currently you no party will be getting a full 24 states in next election because we having 4 major contenders...the winner with more states be it 15 or more will will be declared the winner.

@ the bolded, that will be difficult for Atiku to win NW and NE. Where did you keep Tinubu. Also, it's highly unlikely for Atiku to win even one of SS, SE, or SW. These regions are between Obi and Tinubu, and it seems Obi has the upper hand there already.

The election next year will be the most intriguing in Nigeria's history. That is only what I know.

APCnaPDP:


You are not correct. North Carries the bulk of votes in Nigeria and would need only one region in the south to win. If Atiku for instance, wins NE and NW, he will need only SS or SE to win.

Buddha3:


I read your comment with an open mind until I got to your last paragraph.

That the votes Atiku got from the entire South East were just about tantamount to what Kano state produced, hitherto making the SE region inconsequential, going by your submission.

I am from Cross River state but let me relay a certain advise an elder from Plateau state once gave to me: Should you travel to anywhere within the four cardinal points of Nigeria and don't find an Igbo man within a 100 yards of your residential abode owning a small kiosk or doing a roadside business, pack up your bags and leave that location immediately.

What some of you fail to understand is that the voting strength of the South East is widely spread across the lengths and breadth of the entire country. Igbos are sojourners. So what you consider to be the voting strength of the South West is quite honestly an influx of other tribes, mostly the Igbos. If the Igbos were to conglomerate in their region during elections as is the case during festive celebrations, I promise you, this nonsense you put up there about the South West being the voting strength of the entire Southern region would make you appear unintelligible.

It's largely nauseating the way some of you Nigerians always tend to undermine the relevance of another tribe just to sound politically correct.

Rightly said.

shariff84:
I swear I don't understand the hyped about north central. I was born in Jos and iam now in Niger state,but someone that never been to north/central will be busy typing rubbish. Even if the entire north central will vote along religion line, it's will be Muslim 70% and christian 30%. Anyone that dispute dis should check 2015 election result. In plateau that you are saying we should leave it for them Muslim has already dominated the capital city which Jos.

If nasarawa should vote along religion line, then it would be 55% for Christians and 45% for Muslims.. stop saying rubbish, Christians up note lack unity, because the southern Christians lack unity too, if we should vote along religious line, then no Muslim will ever rule Nigeria again, because is only in the north west that Muslims dominate..



Which part of the Jos are you talking about?
The Jos north that lalong gave them the chairmanship position? Oga in a free and fair election, no hausa man can become a chairman is Jos north

shariff84:
I swear I don't understand the hyped about north central. I was born in Jos and iam now in Niger state,but someone that never been to north/central will be busy typing rubbish. Even if the entire north central will vote along religion line, it's will be Muslim 70% and christian 30%. Anyone that dispute dis should check 2015 election result. In plateau that you are saying we should leave it for them Muslim has already dominated the capital city which Jos.

dey are allowed to dream nah.u wonder y kogi,Kwara,nasarawa and Niger hardly have christian governor's?Dem say na swing states,I wonder who dey swing am.hahahahahahaha.one even said north central will tilt towards the south,very funny.dey can say anything to make demsrlves happy,it's allowed.

shariff84:
I swear I don't understand the hyped about north central. I was born in Jos and iam now in Niger state,but someone that never been to north/central will be busy typing rubbish. Even if the entire north central will vote along religion line, it's will be Muslim 70% and christian 30%. Anyone that dispute dis should check 2015 election result. In plateau that you are saying we should leave it for them Muslim has already dominated the capital city which Jos.

LMFAO...Langtang, because Langtang bois calm down,that is just what made you saying all this...In 2015 , we had no choice other than Buhari...Bomb blast and many other atrocities made us voted in APC.

CSTRR:

Lagos State is the highest voting state in the south for obvious reasons.

And account for Atleast 50% of the total votes of the South West.

But some people are mistaking it for Tinubu votes.

Osinbajo of the apc lost his polling unit to pdp in lekki in 2019.

That says it all.

Majority of you guys don't even know that lagosians don't vote. Yobe state had more voters than Lagos in the e last election talk less of kano, katsina or kaduna or borno. Lagos only have population but not voters. The total number of voters in lagos in 2019 is not up to 1m and thats for all the parties put together.

Omicron007:


It is crystal clear.

The middle belt christians and educated muslims will mostly vote Peter Obi. Obi has SS,SE,Christian and educated votes of SW and middle belt in the bag.Tinubu should have some states in the SW and north.Atiku only has NW/NE.As it stands atiku cant win.He doesnt have the necessary spread(25% of 24 states and fct).If there would be a run off atiku wont be included.

Jerrydox:
This post was initially written by Itodo Pope on his Facebook page.

You posted it here without acknowledging the writer.

plagiarism

I couldn't agree more.

Saintinoo:


This guy is from the so called North,ad you think his analysis is one sided. You people fail to understand the North.

The North Muslims don't have the numbers they claim, atleast we saw it 2011, where they all voted Buhari and he lost by 12 million votes, if the South and Northern Christians are united, the Northern Muslims will not smell presidency again.

The North noticed this, then they reached out to Tinubu and Ameachi to break the South votes.

Tinubu alignment with the north Made Buhari President. And he did that because of 2023.
Anyone who comfortably wins the NC, SS/SE and some votes from the SW will win the election. Obi should focus more on the NC and SW. the NE/NW is no go area. The SS/SE is already in the bag for him.

2loadedguy:

Majority of you guys don't even know that lagosians don't vote. Yobe state had more voters than Lagos in the e last election talk less of kano, katsina or kaduna or borno. Lagos only have population but not voters. The total number of voters in lagos in 2019 is not up to 1m and thats for all the parties put together.

Even if it is 1 person that voted in Lagos state ,it is counted as a State and equate the 2million from kano...Any party that wins there have a plus. Population just speaks,about the number of people present and the willingness of the people to exercise there civil rights.

egunna:
dey are allowed to dream nah.u wonder y kogi,Kwara,nasarawa and Niger hardly have christian governor's?Dem say na swing states,I wonder who dey swing am.hahahahahahaha.one even said north central will tilt towards the south,very funny.dey can say anything to make demsrlves happy,it's allowed.

Niger has a significant number of Christians, same with kwara and kogi, nasarawa is dominated by Christians, in North East, adamawa and taraba are dominated by Christians, Bauchi 30% gombe 40% and borno 30% Christians, so just stop saying rubbish..

2loadedguy:

Majority of you guys don't even know that lagosians don't vote. Yobe state had more voters than Lagos in the e last election talk less of kano, katsina or kaduna or borno. Lagos only have population but not voters. The total number of voters in lagos in 2019 is not up to 1m and thats for all the parties put together.

Lagos will vote this time.

E get why.

CSTRR:

yes, that is true.

And that is the same for the South too.

If the entire south vote for a single candidate, he would only need to win a single northern region to win.

Buhari always won the NW with a landslide and yet he never became president.

Winning the NW and NE does not guarantee presidency.

And also, the reason why the north is United is because the South is not United.

The south is the economic powerhouse.
A United south will quickly get the middle belt falling in line.

Everybody likes to join the progressive team.

say we for north central no know wetin we dey do abi?"we will quickly fall in line".na dat arrogance go be una greatest undoing las las,u assume too much.na assumption dey make una type all these bullshit.when d day come,e go do una like film trick

jumper524:
oga the op is using elections conducted during obasanjo as yardstick.
That one na election dem dey do then?
Look at the clear picture from inec server. You'll see states with the highest number of registered voters. The op even had the guts to call northerners riffraffs.
Ba wahala.

sama ta Yi wa yaro nisa

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

...save your south east estimate until after 2023 then let us know if Kano and Kaduna can produce more vote than the south east ..because we are ready to vote and we all are obedient including the yeye apc governor's promising the agbado man votes are obedient..

samsononyilo:



Niger has a significant number of Christians, same with kwara and kogi, nasarawa is dominated by Christians, in North East, adamawa and taraba are dominated by Christians, Bauchi 30% gombe 40% and borno 30% Christians, so just stop saying rubbish..

Not true.Niger has about 20% Christians,30% in kwara.out of 20 lgas in bauchi,Christians dominate just two so how can this be 30%?that should be 10% or less.in gombe,Christians only dominate 3 lgas,that's about 30% and borno Christians dominate only two lgas out of 27.this is less than 5% and they always vote apc.please be guided

egunna:
say we for north central no know wetin we dey do abi?"we will quickly fall in line".na dat arrogance go be una greatest undoing las las,u assume too much.na assumption dey make una type all these bullshit.when d day come,e go do una like film trick

It is not like that.

I meant that the NC will weigh their options and realise that their bread is buttered with the south as a whole.

X

4ward4:


where do you get this From from?Last I checked you don't need to win a certain percentage in every states. But a certain percentage of the total Nigeria State..I think 2/3 of 36 , if I can still remember, which makes it 24. and currently you no party will be getting a full 24 states in next election because we having 4 major contenders...the winner with more states be it 15 or more will will be declared the winner.

I suggest you go and read sections 133 and 134 of the constitution. If you don’t have 25% of 24 states, you can’t be president irrespective of the number of candidates. Obi cannot get 25% of 24 states full stop!!!!

In the event that nobody has the required 25% in 24 states AND the FCT, it goes into a run off between the top 2 candidates and Obi can NEVER win a 2 horse race against Atiku or Tinubu! He cannot get 25% of core northern votes in a 2 horse or 4 horse race. There is a reason he couldn’t get any high profile Northerner to be his VP, I know what I know!

Buddha3:


I read your comment with an open mind until I got to your last paragraph.

That the votes Atiku got from the entire South East were just about tantamount to what Kano state produced, hitherto making the SE region inconsequential, going by your submission.

I am from Cross River state but let me relay a certain advise an elder from Plateau state once gave to me: Should you travel to anywhere within the four cardinal points of Nigeria and don't find an Igbo man within a 100 yards of your residential abode owning a small kiosk or doing a roadside business, pack up your bags and leave that location immediately.

What some of you fail to understand is that the voting strength of the South East is widely spread across the lengths and breadth of the entire country. Igbos are sojourners. So what you consider to be the voting strength of the South West is quite honestly an influx of other tribes, mostly the Igbos. If the Igbos were to conglomerate in their region during elections as is the case during festive celebrations, I promise you, this nonsense you put up there about the South West being the voting strength of the entire Southern region would make you appear unintelligible.

It's largely nauseating the way some of you Nigerians always tend to undermine the relevance of another tribe just to sound politically correct.

guess what,igbos are scattered all around,agreed.but no matter where an average Igbo man finds himself,he will vote against a Muslim dere.so it makes no difference where dey are.dey are always flowing against the tide.

AbuUmmu:
Omicron, the whole north need one region of the south to win election while the south need two region with block vote to win. Put ur analysis straight and stop confusing people

Dem no go gree

jumper524:
electoral results during obasanjo no be election.
Check the stats of newly registered voters, the North ain't playing.

Stats of newly registered voters? Are you sure you looked at it before asking him to check? Because the stats would invalidate what you are trying to posit

casualobserver:


I suggest you go and read sections 133 and 134 of the constitution. If you don’t have 25% of 24 states, you can’t be president irrespective of the number of candidates. Obi cannot get 25% of 24 states full stop!!!!

In the event that nobody has the required 25% in 24 states AND the FCT, it goes into a run off between the top 2 candidates and Obi can NEVER win a 2 horse race against Atiku or Tinubu!

Section 134 subsection 3b, is most likely to apply in this election...which will be a rerun and take us back to subsection 2

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]ok your eye go clear by 2023

4ward4:


Section 134 subsection 3b, is most likely to apply in this election...which will be a rerun and take us back to subsection 2

No it will take us to section 134 (5). Which is a 2 horse rerun and like I said, Obi cannot win a 2 horse race….full stop.

Loldorable:
I'm into agro-bussiness and I need an urgent loan of 100k to support my business and I will pay 50% interest after 4month, we will do oath of agreement and I will give you a postdated cheque.
Please email me @
agro-bussiness2022@outlook.com

50% interest in 4 months?
You intend to gamble with the 100k, or you have no intentions of paying back at all.

samsononyilo:



Niger has a significant number of Christians, same with kwara and kogi, nasarawa is dominated by Christians, in North East, adamawa and taraba are dominated by Christians, Bauchi 30% gombe 40% and borno 30% Christians, so just stop saying rubbish..

kikikikikikikikikiki,ok sir.all correct sir

4ward4:


Section 134 subsection 3b, is most likely to apply in this election...which will be a rerun and take us back to subsection 2

No it will take us to section 134 (5). Which is a 2 horse rerun and like I said, Obi cannot win a 2 horse race….full stop.

If you know the inside story of why Obi had to settle for Datti, you will understand why Obi cannot be president. It will be an achievement to even come 2nd.