₦airaland Forum

MrEverest:
The same Kano Kwankwaso is expected to win with Atiku coming second? FYI, both Lagos and Rivers are more important than Kano in this election. For the first time, Lagos is likely to produce same voter turn out with Kano or even more. Lagos has just two major contestants while Kano has 3. Rivers State has large number of voters too and is likely to experience high voter turnout with most of them going to one candidate, Obi.

If over 52% are still undecided, who do you think they will eventually vote for? The ruling party with a sick, old and corrupt candidate and worse still with insecurity and economic crises currently bedeviling Nigeria? Or Peter Obi who is promising to bring an end to it and many believing him?

I'm in the SE and I can tell you I'm yet to see anyone who intends to vote for PDP or APC. If you like ask people collecting PVC, or commercial vehicle or even the streets. Even many PDP and APC card carrying members will end up voting for Obi. Don't be carried away with what SE politicians are doing because they can't influence beyond their immediate families.

it is a toxic behaviour allocating all 52% of undecided voters in a poll to your candidate because other candidates are sick, old and corrupt. These sort of behaviour is also prevalent on social media, such that there are many resolved voters not mentioning their preferred candidates and waiting till election day. With a very aggressive and lynch mindset" i doubt anyone in SE who will not be voting Obi will voice out to you.

chinchum:
it is a toxic behaviour allocating all 52% of undecided voters in a poll to your candidate because other candidates are sick, old and corrupt. These sort of behaviour is also prevalent on social media, such that there are many resolved voters not mentioning their preferred candidates and waiting till election day. With a very aggressive and lynch mindset" i doubt anyone in SE who will not be voting Obi will voice out to you.

Now, tell me one single reason why someone from SE, a region that is 99% Christians will decide to vote for a Muslim-muslim jihad ticket? Worse still when the candidate is sick, old and corrupt against Peter Obi who ticks all the decent boxes?

Aside the SE politicians with vested interests, what will make anyone in the SE to vote PDAPC when Peter Obi who is not just a Christian like everyone else but also the best candidate by miles?!

MrEverest:
Now, tell me one single reason why someone from SE, a region that is 99% Christians will decide to vote for a Muslim-muslim jihad ticket? Worse still when the candidate is sick, old and corrupt against Peter Obi who ticks all the decent boxes?

Aside the SE politicians with vested interests, what will make anyone in the SE to vote PDAPC when Peter Obi who is not just a Christian like everyone else but also the best candidate by miles?!

Therevis no point debating with you since you have arrived at 52% of undecided voters in a poll are all SE voters, you are already closed minded to see the fallacy you are displaying.

chinchum:
if you dont see the "strong weakness" of the ANAP poll then your analytical skills is quite questionable. Over 52% of respondents are undecided !!!. It is worthless as P in Psychology. Giving all states equal weight is also a serious flaw in the worthless ANAP polls. Kano state will produce votes of at least 3 states in the South east.

Past elections and most importantly the immediate past presidential election are good indicators. Voter participation will not be significantly different in most regions compared to 2019. Your labour party win in SE and Ss states will not be as convincing due to the fact it is not a major party and it wont even present house of rep and senatorial candidates in some places. Party structure can NEVER be underrated in Nigeria.

I rarely miss. My 2019 projections for presidential election was +- 2%. I will update less than a week to the election as i will be close to accurate.

The numbers are not hard to get, based on expected voters turnout in each regions compared to voters card issued in relation to percentage of votes expected for each candidate.

You are just attacking ANAP polls because the result isn’t palatable to you. Meanwhile, I didn’t mention ANAP Poll because I believe 100% in its result but to tell you how polling agencies function; that they always function with percentages and not figures. This is the same methodology used by the agencies who poll American, French, Uk, elections.

So, I ask again, are you more intelligent, or claim to have developed a better methodology than these guys? If yes, has it been subjected to test and certified portent?

Again, that you think there’s no increased voter willingness to vote in 2023, and you are expecting voter turnout not quite different from 2019, is one of the biggest jokes of 2023 already.

So, to you, all this people you saw rushing to register for PVC and labouring to collect those PVCs are just internet frenzy, right?