₦airaland Forum

Landowner101:
Agbado and cassava projection 😄😄😄

The American corn industry is worth $60bn annually, that’s just the corn not the whole agriculture industry. Just saying though. That’s more than many sectors in Nigerian GDP.

[quote author=Dapson73 post=120890070]BENUE STATE. A PDP state. Its gov has vowed not to work for Atiku. But APC has a strong presence with ex gov George Akume still a big factor. with APC having a Popular gov candidate, APC 40% 40% PDP 20%.

Am from Benue and will openly tell you that Benue will give Obi block votes. In 2019,we voted APC for president and gave our senators in PDP for the entire 3 seats.

We vote individuals in Benue now with zero mistakes, not party. I don't know for other States.

ashacot:
This Is My Projection for this month election.
This projection is based on current reality and dynamics of present political settings.
A lot has changed since 2019 election especially the Dynamics.
But i will be givibg my projection based on the following.
1. The candidates
2. The pulse or mood of the country. Voters turn out, Party structure
Please note that this is subjected to changes until the D election. So i will give my projection region by region and may break them down into states.

SOUTH WEST.


OGUN STATE: with an APC governor and the fact that the APC candidate is a son of the soil will deliver a possible 65-70% of the votes. PDP not strong in Ogun and labour party doesn't have any real presence here. APC 65% PDP 20% LP 15%
OYO STATE: is ruled by PDP but the governor is among the G5 governors of PDP that renegade against the PDP presidential candidate. Feelers already has it that the G5 governors are working for Tinubu's emergence. And the Oyo governor is already scheming to trade the presidential votes in his state for his reelection for second term. APC to get 65% here while PDP 20%, labour 15%.
OSUN STATE. Also a PDP state. The governor is firmly an Atiku fan but he will not be able to stop the APC from taken at least 70% of the votes here. While PDP will score %15, labour will get 15% here.
EKITI STATE. An APC state with key players in both parties working for APC. Ex gov, Fayemi who stepped down for Tinubu in the APC primaries is firmly working with the governor to deliver the state. While another ex gov Fayose who is a PDP leader in the state is also working to deliver votes to Tinubu.
There is little or no presence of labour party in the state. APC 70-75% PDP 15% LP 15.
ONDO STATE. An APC controlled state is the swing state of the south west. One can most times not predict the direction the state will vote as APC lost the presidential election here. Unless there is a significant change here, APC may not win here convincingly So in Ondo, APC %50, PDP 25, LP 20% others %5.
Lagos. The headquarters of APC south. The party has not really won the state convincingly. This is the state APC presidential candidate made his name and consolidated his achievements. Though there are many forces against his victory. Here APC %50. LP 35% PDP %10 others 5%.

SOUTH SOUTH.

DELTA STATE. A PDP stronghold. The VP is from the state. Though he has quite a lot of battle to fight to successfully deliver block vote to his party. He has fallen out with his godfather ibori too and APC look like ..has penetrated the state. The APC got over 25% in the region and won some assembly and senate seats too in 2019 election. With the increasing popularity of LP candidate in the state too, block votes here is looking almost impossible. APC 25%, PDP 40% LP 35%
BAYELSA STATE. A PDP state and ex president Jonathan state too. The PDP is still the strongest party here even though it lost the last gov election to APC but got it back through the court. Here PDP 40%, APC 18% LP42%
AKWA IBOM STATE. A PDP state. But will be largely threatened by LP. The governor here is a strong ATIKU ally with APC structure here shakky despite the presence of ex gov Akpabio. Here APC to get 20% PDP 45% LP 35%
CROSS RIVER STATE. An APC state. The governor has vowed to deliver the state to Tinubu. But even at that, the APC will still not win the state. It has been a traditional PDP state. Here APC will get 25-35%, PDP 30% LP 35-40.
RIVERS STATE: A tradition PDP state too. Its governor is the leader of the G5 govs against ATIKU. He has already showed sign that he is supporting the emergence of Tinubu. Here APC to get 30% PDP 30% Labour party 40%.
EDO STATE: PDP has a strong structure here with a governor. However, APC too has a deep structure here led by ex gov Oshomole. The state has always given the APC 30% AND IT will not change. The only changes here will be in introduction of LP which will harm the PDP. APC 30%, PDP 35%, LP 35%

SOUTH EAST .

IMO STATE. An APC state. But even at that, Labour Party still has an edge here. Obi will get the bulk of the votes here. APC 25% PDP 20% LP 55%
ABIA STATE. Another PDP state. Though its gov is among the G5 govs, it may likely work for PDP due to the death of his choice successor. Labour Party still have an edge here. APC 20-25, PDP 25% LP 55-60%
EBONYI STATE: a traditional PDP state. Though presently ruled by an APC gov. Labour party will still edge this state.
Here APC 25% PDP 10% LP ... 65%
ENUGU STATE: the headquarter of PDP states in south east. Its gov is among the G5 govs. His godfather chimaroke is working for Tinubu emergence but LP will dominate here. APC 15-25%, PDP 20%, LP %65.
ANAMBRA STATE: the home state of LP candidate. He is expected to sweep here even though PDP always sweep here in previous election. APC 9%, PDP 1O% LP 81%. APGA O%

NORTH CENTRAL.

ABUJA: APC lost this place to PDP last election. It may do badly here too but it might not significantly harm them bBecause of LP. here APC 30%, PDP 35% LP 35.
NASARAWA STATE: an APC state with both Christians and muslims. Religion may be a factor here. APC 40%, PDP 35% LP 20% NNPP %5
PLATUE STATE: an APC state and also the state of APC presidential DG. Just like nasarawa, religion and tribe will play a major factor here. APC 35%, PDP 25% LP 35 others 5%.
KOGI STATE: An APC state. And also the state of PDP campaign spome person Dinno Malaye. Here APC 50% PDP 30%, LP 15% Others 5%.
KWARA STATE: An APC state. Though PDP has a presence in the state with ex gov saraki still available, labour little or no presence. Here APC 65% PDP 30, LP 10% NNPP 5%.
BENUE STATE. A PDP state. Its gov has vowed not to work for Atiku. But APC has a strong presence with ex gov George Akume still a big factor. with APC having a Popular gov candidate, APC 40% 40% PDP 20%.

NORTH EAST

GOMBE STATE: an APC state, here APC 50%, PDP 35% NNPP 10% Others 5%
TARABA STATE: A PDP state. Religion and tribe has always defined vote ..here. PDP won the state at both fed and state level in 2019 election. Here, APC will score 30%, PDP 35%, LP 25% NNPP 10% OTHERS 5%
BORNO: An APC state and the home state of APC presidential candidate. Here APC 60%, PDP 28%, LP8, NNPP, 12%
ADAMAWA: The home state of PDP presidential candidate. He won the 2019 election here by the whiskers but president Buhari is not on the ballot here. APC to get 25%, PDP %60, LP 7% NNPP 7%.
YOBE STATE. An APC state. Here APC will slighly edge PDP. APC 45% PDP 40% LP 1% NNPP %10 others 4%
BAUCHI: PDP state. Here PDP will take this state. Though APC has a strong presence here. APC 30%, PDP 60% LP 10% NNPP, 10%

NORTH WEST

ZAMFARA STATE. Here all the ex governors are in APC. the state is predominantly APC. However, PDP has slight presence here. APC 50%, PDP 30% LP, 5% NNPP 15%
KADUNA STATE: A dynamic state. Presently ruled by an APC governor and a henchman of Tinubu campaign el rufai. The state is also the home state of Labour party candidate. No buhari on the ballot here means APC will get 35%, PDP 35% LP 15%, NNPP 15%
KEBBI STATE. Here the APC and PDP will slug it out even though it is an APC STATE. . APC 35% PDP 35% NNPP 15% Others 15%
JIGAWA: is also an APC state and both APC and PDP will slug it out, with Kwankwanso also in the mix with them.
KASTINA STATE. An APC state and also the home state of president Buhari. Buhari is not on ballot here and PDP has a strong presence here. APC 40% PDP40%, NNPP 10% Others 10%.
KANO state. APC state. But APC will not dominate here because president Buhari is not on ballot and presence of kwankwanso. APC30%, PDP 25% NNPP 30%, Others 15%.
SOKOTO STATE: A PDP State. However, APC also have a strong presence here with ex governor Wamako a strong pillar in the state.
APC 35% PDP 40% NNPP 15% Others 5%.

Based on present dynamics, voter's turn out, candidates on the ballot, pulse of the nation and party structure

APC 1st position
PDP Second position
LP 3rd position
NNPP 4Th position.

I have checked your posts you claimed to be an Igbo christian who is voting tinubu Muslim Muslim presidency.

Thank you Mr APC for analysis.

Stanleyucee:
Urchin go and sit down....go and check the post you made on 14 Jan in support of your drug Lord... Your projection is baseless

Zombidiot do your own projection now and stop foaming in the mouth.

Kingboy10:
lol, I laughed at your Edo projection. Pdp and apc will be lucky to get 20% here. It's not by pdp state. Come to Edo and ask the average edolite who have PVC who they will be voting in the next election.

APC will win the whole 6 Edo North’s LG.
And with such APC won’t score 20%?
LP in Edo state won’t win Ovia NE, Ovia SW, Orhiomwon… they might win Oredo, Ikpoba-Okha and Uhunwonde.
PDP may wins more LG in Edo Central
So it’s gonna be a shared votes in Edo State between the 3 Major Parties and I’m sure that whichever party wins Edo if not APC, APC will come 2nd.

If you are Edo based, you will agree with me that most of the people that would be voting LP were PDP voters and neutrals.
Most APC lovers and voters are still voting APC (I inclusive ), courtesy Oshiomhole bringing all APC members and Voters under one roof, unlike before when there were factions in Edo APC.

The biggest loser in Edo is surely gonna be PDP and not APC.

ashacot:
This Is My Projection for this month election.
This projection is based on current reality and dynamics of present political settings.
A lot has changed since 2019 election especially the Dynamics.
But i %
ADAMAWA: The home state of PDP presidential candidate. .

Fair Analysis but you left out Niger state in your projection.

Ondo will vote for APC just like Ekiti, there is no confusion in Ondo this time around. The local people I interacted with are praying for Tinubus victory. They believe BAT will make life easier for them.

The major decider of this election will be how PDP performs in South South and North West. Those are the tipping point regions. If Obi takes SS and Tinubu matches Atiku in NW then the election is over in favor of Tinubu.

maybet081:
I have checked your posts you claimed to be an Igbo christian who is voting tinubu Muslim Muslim presidency.

Thank you Mr APC for analysis.

I don't involve in your kind of tribal and religious bigotry.

Tvegas:
Fair Analysis from but you left out Niger state in your projection.

Ondo will vote for APC just like Ekiti, there is no confusion in Ondo this time around. The local people I interacted with are praying for Tinubus victory. They believe BAT will make life easier for them.

The major decider of this election will be how PDP performs in South South and North West. Those are the tipping points region. If Obi takes SS and Tinubu matches Atiku in NW then the election is over in favor of Tinubu.

So sorry for that. I will include it now

If APC wins the forthcoming election in Nigeria, then it is safe to say Nigeria is really a basket of fools.

ashacot:
This Is My Projection for this month election.
This projection is based on current reality and dynamics of present political settings.
A lot has changed since 2019 election especially the Dynamics.
But i will be givibg my projection based on the following.
1. The candidates
2. The pulse or mood of the country. Voters turn out, Party structure
Please note that this is subjected to changes until the D election. So i will give my projection region by region and may break them down into states.

SOUTH WEST.


OGUN STATE: with an APC governor and the fact that the APC candidate is a son of the soil will deliver a possible 65-70% of the votes. PDP not strong in Ogun and labour party doesn't have any real presence here. APC 65% PDP 20% LP 15%
OYO STATE: is ruled by PDP but the governor is among the G5 governors of PDP that renegade against the PDP presidential candidate. Feelers already has it that the G5 governors are working for Tinubu's emergence. And the Oyo governor is already scheming to trade the presidential votes in his state for his reelection for second term. APC to get 65% here while PDP 20%, labour 15%.
OSUN STATE. Also a PDP state. The governor is firmly an Atiku fan but he will not be able to stop the APC from taken at least 70% of the votes here. While PDP will score %15, labour will get 15% here.
EKITI STATE. An APC state with key players in both parties working for APC. Ex gov, Fayemi who stepped down for Tinubu in the APC primaries is firmly working with the governor to deliver the state. While another ex gov Fayose who is a PDP leader in the state is also working to deliver votes to Tinubu.
There is little or no presence of labour party in the state. APC 70-75% PDP 15% LP 15.
ONDO STATE. An APC controlled state is the swing state of the south west. One can most times not predict the direction the state will vote as APC lost the presidential election here. Unless there is a significant change here, APC may not win here convincingly So in Ondo, APC %50, PDP 25, LP 20% others %5.
Lagos. The headquarters of APC south. The party has not really won the state convincingly. This is the state APC presidential candidate made his name and consolidated his achievements. Though there are many forces against his victory. Here APC %50. LP 35% PDP %10 others 5%.

SOUTH SOUTH.

DELTA STATE. A PDP stronghold. The VP is from the state. Though he has quite a lot of battle to fight to successfully deliver block vote to his party. He has fallen out with his godfather ibori too and APC look like ..has penetrated the state. The APC got over 25% in the region and won some assembly and senate seats too in 2019 election. With the increasing popularity of LP candidate in the state too, block votes here is looking almost impossible. APC 25%, PDP 40% LP 35%
BAYELSA STATE. A PDP state and ex president Jonathan state too. The PDP is still the strongest party here even though it lost the last gov election to APC but got it back through the court. Here PDP 40%, APC 18% LP42%
AKWA IBOM STATE. A PDP state. But will be largely threatened by LP. The governor here is a strong ATIKU ally with APC structure here shakky despite the presence of ex gov Akpabio. Here APC to get 20% PDP 45% LP 35%
CROSS RIVER STATE. An APC state. The governor has vowed to deliver the state to Tinubu. But even at that, the APC will still not win the state. It has been a traditional PDP state. Here APC will get 25-35%, PDP 30% LP 35-40.
RIVERS STATE: A tradition PDP state too. Its governor is the leader of the G5 govs against ATIKU. He has already showed sign that he is supporting the emergence of Tinubu. Here APC to get 30% PDP 30% Labour party 40%.
EDO STATE: PDP has a strong structure here with a governor. However, APC too has a deep structure here led by ex gov Oshomole. The state has always given the APC 30% AND IT will not change. The only changes here will be in introduction of LP which will harm the PDP. APC 30%, PDP 35%, LP 35%

SOUTH EAST .

IMO STATE. An APC state. But even at that, Labour Party still has an edge here. Obi will get the bulk of the votes here. APC 25% PDP 20% LP 55%
ABIA STATE. Another PDP state. Though its gov is among the G5 govs, it may likely work for PDP due to the death of his choice successor. Labour Party still have an edge here. APC 20-25, PDP 25% LP 55-60%
EBONYI STATE: a traditional PDP state. Though presently ruled by an APC gov. Labour party will still edge this state.
Here APC 25% PDP 10% LP ... 65%
ENUGU STATE: the headquarter of PDP states in south east. Its gov is among the G5 govs. His godfather chimaroke is working for Tinubu emergence but LP will dominate here. APC 15-25%, PDP 20%, LP %65.
ANAMBRA STATE: the home state of LP candidate. He is expected to sweep here even though PDP always sweep here in previous election. APC 9%, PDP 1O% LP 81%. APGA O%

NORTH CENTRAL.

ABUJA: APC lost this place to PDP last election. It may do badly here too but it might not significantly harm them bBecause of LP. here APC 30%, PDP 35% LP 35.
NASARAWA STATE: an APC state with both Christians and muslims. Religion may be a factor here. APC 40%, PDP 35% LP 20% NNPP %5
PLATUE STATE: an APC state and also the state of APC presidential DG. Just like nasarawa, religion and tribe will play a major factor here. APC 35%, PDP 25% LP 35 others 5%.
KOGI STATE: An APC state. And also the state of PDP campaign spome person Dinno Malaye. Here APC 50% PDP 30%, LP 15% Others 5%.
KWARA STATE: An APC state. Though PDP has a presence in the state with ex gov saraki still available, labour little or no presence. Here APC 65% PDP 30, LP 10% NNPP 5%.
BENUE STATE. A PDP state. Its gov has vowed not to work for Atiku. But APC has a strong presence with ex gov George Akume still a big factor. with APC having a Popular gov candidate, APC 40% 40% PDP 20%.
NIGER STATE: A state with an APC governor and senators. But president Buhari will not be on the ballot here. PDP are fairly strong here too. and NNPP may get a chunk here. APC 40%, PDP 40% NNPP 15% LP 10%

NORTH EAST

GOMBE STATE: an APC state, here APC 50%, PDP 35% NNPP 10% Others 5%
TARABA STATE: A PDP state. Religion and tribe has always defined vote ..here. PDP won the state at both fed and state level in 2019 election. Here, APC will score 30%, PDP 35%, LP 25% NNPP 10% OTHERS 5%
BORNO: An APC state and the home state of APC presidential candidate. Here APC 60%, PDP 28%, LP8, NNPP, 12%
ADAMAWA: The home state of PDP presidential candidate. He won the 2019 election here by the whiskers but president Buhari is not on the ballot here. APC to get 25%, PDP %60, LP 7% NNPP 7%.
YOBE STATE. An APC state. Here APC will slighly edge PDP. APC 45% PDP 40% LP 1% NNPP %10 others 4%
BAUCHI: PDP state. Here PDP will take this state. Though APC has a strong presence here. APC 30%, PDP 60% LP 10% NNPP, 10%

NORTH WEST

ZAMFARA STATE. Here all the ex governors are in APC. the state is predominantly APC. However, PDP has slight presence here. APC 50%, PDP 30% LP, 5% NNPP 15%
KADUNA STATE: A dynamic state. Presently ruled by an APC governor and a henchman of Tinubu campaign el rufai. The state is also the home state of Labour party candidate. No buhari on the ballot here means APC will get 35%, PDP 35% LP 15%, NNPP 15%
KEBBI STATE. Here the APC and PDP will slug it out even though it is an APC STATE. . APC 35% PDP 35% NNPP 15% Others 15%
JIGAWA: is also an APC state and both APC and PDP will slug it out, with Kwankwanso also in the mix with them.
KASTINA STATE. An APC state and also the home state of president Buhari. Buhari is not on ballot here and PDP has a strong presence here. APC 40% PDP40%, NNPP 10% Others 10%.
KANO state. APC state. But APC will not dominate here because president Buhari is not on ballot and presence of kwankwanso. APC30%, PDP 25% NNPP 30%, Others 15%.
SOKOTO STATE: A PDP State. However, APC also have a strong presence here with ex governor Wamako a strong pillar in the state.
APC 35% PDP 40% NNPP 15% Others 5%.

Based on present dynamics, voter's turn out, candidates on the ballot, pulse of the nation and party structure

APC 1st position
PDP Second position
LP 3rd position
NNPP 4Th position.

ALL THESE PRO_TINUBU ANALYSIS NO GO HELP ANYBODY. WE ARE 11 DAYS FROM REALITY

Lol

ashacot:
This Is My Projection for this month election.
This projection is based on current reality and dynamics of present political settings.
A lot has changed since 2019 election especially the Dynamics.
But i will be givibg my projection based on the following.
1. The candidates
2. The pulse or mood of the country. Voters turn out, Party structure
Please note that this is subjected to changes until the D election. So i will give my projection region by region and may break them down into states.

SOUTH WEST.


OGUN STATE: with an APC governor and the fact that the APC candidate is a son of the soil will deliver a possible 65-70% of the votes. PDP not strong in Ogun and labour party doesn't have any real presence here. APC 65% PDP 20% LP 15%
OYO STATE: is ruled by PDP but the governor is among the G5 governors of PDP that renegade against the PDP presidential candidate. Feelers already has it that the G5 governors are working for Tinubu's emergence. And the Oyo governor is already scheming to trade the presidential votes in his state for his reelection for second term. APC to get 65% here while PDP 20%, labour 15%.
OSUN STATE. Also a PDP state. The governor is firmly an Atiku fan but he will not be able to stop the APC from taken at least 70% of the votes here. While PDP will score %15, labour will get 15% here.
EKITI STATE. An APC state with key players in both parties working for APC. Ex gov, Fayemi who stepped down for Tinubu in the APC primaries is firmly working with the governor to deliver the state. While another ex gov Fayose who is a PDP leader in the state is also working to deliver votes to Tinubu.
There is little or no presence of labour party in the state. APC 70-75% PDP 15% LP 15.
ONDO STATE. An APC controlled state is the swing state of the south west. One can most times not predict the direction the state will vote as APC lost the presidential election here. Unless there is a significant change here, APC may not win here convincingly So in Ondo, APC %50, PDP 25, LP 20% others %5.
Lagos. The headquarters of APC south. The party has not really won the state convincingly. This is the state APC presidential candidate made his name and consolidated his achievements. Though there are many forces against his victory. Here APC %50. LP 35% PDP %10 others 5%.

SOUTH SOUTH.

DELTA STATE. A PDP stronghold. The VP is from the state. Though he has quite a lot of battle to fight to successfully deliver block vote to his party. He has fallen out with his godfather ibori too and APC look like ..has penetrated the state. The APC got over 25% in the region and won some assembly and senate seats too in 2019 election. With the increasing popularity of LP candidate in the state too, block votes here is looking almost impossible. APC 25%, PDP 40% LP 35%
BAYELSA STATE. A PDP state and ex president Jonathan state too. The PDP is still the strongest party here even though it lost the last gov election to APC but got it back through the court. Here PDP 40%, APC 18% LP42%
AKWA IBOM STATE. A PDP state. But will be largely threatened by LP. The governor here is a strong ATIKU ally with APC structure here shakky despite the presence of ex gov Akpabio. Here APC to get 20% PDP 45% LP 35%
CROSS RIVER STATE. An APC state. The governor has vowed to deliver the state to Tinubu. But even at that, the APC will still not win the state. It has been a traditional PDP state. Here APC will get 25-35%, PDP 30% LP 35-40.
RIVERS STATE: A tradition PDP state too. Its governor is the leader of the G5 govs against ATIKU. He has already showed sign that he is supporting the emergence of Tinubu. Here APC to get 30% PDP 30% Labour party 40%.
EDO STATE: PDP has a strong structure here with a governor. However, APC too has a deep structure here led by ex gov Oshomole. The state has always given the APC 30% AND IT will not change. The only changes here will be in introduction of LP which will harm the PDP. APC 30%, PDP 35%, LP 35%

SOUTH EAST .

IMO STATE. An APC state. But even at that, Labour Party still has an edge here. Obi will get the bulk of the votes here. APC 25% PDP 20% LP 55%
ABIA STATE. Another PDP state. Though its gov is among the G5 govs, it may likely work for PDP due to the death of his choice successor. Labour Party still have an edge here. APC 20-25, PDP 25% LP 55-60%
EBONYI STATE: a traditional PDP state. Though presently ruled by an APC gov. Labour party will still edge this state.
Here APC 25% PDP 10% LP ... 65%
ENUGU STATE: the headquarter of PDP states in south east. Its gov is among the G5 govs. His godfather chimaroke is working for Tinubu emergence but LP will dominate here. APC 15-25%, PDP 20%, LP %65.
ANAMBRA STATE: the home state of LP candidate. He is expected to sweep here even though PDP always sweep here in previous election. APC 9%, PDP 1O% LP 81%. APGA O%

NORTH CENTRAL.

ABUJA: APC lost this place to PDP last election. It may do badly here too but it might not significantly harm them bBecause of LP. here APC 30%, PDP 35% LP 35.
NASARAWA STATE: an APC state with both Christians and muslims. Religion may be a factor here. APC 40%, PDP 35% LP 20% NNPP %5
PLATUE STATE: an APC state and also the state of APC presidential DG. Just like nasarawa, religion and tribe will play a major factor here. APC 35%, PDP 25% LP 35 others 5%.
KOGI STATE: An APC state. And also the state of PDP campaign spome person Dinno Malaye. Here APC 50% PDP 30%, LP 15% Others 5%.
KWARA STATE: An APC state. Though PDP has a presence in the state with ex gov saraki still available, labour little or no presence. Here APC 65% PDP 30, LP 10% NNPP 5%.
BENUE STATE. A PDP state. Its gov has vowed not to work for Atiku. But APC has a strong presence with ex gov George Akume still a big factor. with APC having a Popular gov candidate, APC 40% 40% PDP 20%.
NIGER STATE: A state with an APC governor and senators. But president Buhari will not be on the ballot here. PDP are fairly strong here too. and NNPP may get a chunk here. APC 40%, PDP 40% NNPP 15% LP 10%

NORTH EAST

GOMBE STATE: an APC state, here APC 50%, PDP 35% NNPP 10% Others 5%
TARABA STATE: A PDP state. Religion and tribe has always defined vote ..here. PDP won the state at both fed and state level in 2019 election. Here, APC will score 30%, PDP 35%, LP 25% NNPP 10% OTHERS 5%
BORNO: An APC state and the home state of APC presidential candidate. Here APC 60%, PDP 28%, LP8, NNPP, 12%
ADAMAWA: The home state of PDP presidential candidate. He won the 2019 election here by the whiskers but president Buhari is not on the ballot here. APC to get 25%, PDP %60, LP 7% NNPP 7%.
YOBE STATE. An APC state. Here APC will slighly edge PDP. APC 45% PDP 40% LP 1% NNPP %10 others 4%
BAUCHI: PDP state. Here PDP will take this state. Though APC has a strong presence here. APC 30%, PDP 60% LP 10% NNPP, 10%

NORTH WEST

ZAMFARA STATE. Here all the ex governors are in APC. the state is predominantly APC. However, PDP has slight presence here. APC 50%, PDP 30% LP, 5% NNPP 15%
KADUNA STATE: A dynamic state. Presently ruled by an APC governor and a henchman of Tinubu campaign el rufai. The state is also the home state of Labour party candidate. No buhari on the ballot here means APC will get 35%, PDP 35% LP 15%, NNPP 15%
KEBBI STATE. Here the APC and PDP will slug it out even though it is an APC STATE. . APC 35% PDP 35% NNPP 15% Others 15%
JIGAWA: is also an APC state and both APC and PDP will slug it out, with Kwankwanso also in the mix with them.
KASTINA STATE. An APC state and also the home state of president Buhari. Buhari is not on ballot here and PDP has a strong presence here. APC 40% PDP40%, NNPP 10% Others 10%.
KANO state. APC state. But APC will not dominate here because president Buhari is not on ballot and presence of kwankwanso. APC30%, PDP 25% NNPP 30%, Others 15%.
SOKOTO STATE: A PDP State. However, APC also have a strong presence here with ex governor Wamako a strong pillar in the state.
APC 35% PDP 40% NNPP 15% Others 5%.

Based on present dynamics, voter's turn out, candidates on the ballot, pulse of the nation and party structure

APC 1st position
PDP Second position
LP 3rd position
NNPP 4Th position.

Your prediction is almost exactly, what I have written down, with some exceptions

ashacot:
I still feel LP will do well in south east. Can't tell about south south

Forget this analysis,

I can assure u that no party will ever get up to 10 votes in the south east. U stay in one house and tell us what is on ground. U that is an APC follower is telling us what to expect.

I laugh in Nigerian tone.

I just came from Abia and I can tell u with confidence no party except LP will win the south east generally.

Good analysis but you overrated Obi in many states. He won't get 20% in Ondo State. Again, in this 2023 election, Ondo is not a swing state. Ondo State went for Buhari in 2015 despite having a PDP governor but lost to PDP when it had APC governor in 2019. The 2019 scenario came up because of people's hatred for Buhari, feud between the Adams Oshiomole leadership of the APC and the state governor when Oshiomole did not allow the governor to impose his preferred candidates on the party. All the loyalists of the governor contested under AA and that led to splitting of APC votes, PDP became the real beneficiary. But this time, APC is united for Asiwaju in Ondo State, Asiwaju is Yoruba, There are places in Ondo North where you can't mention Atiku because of the merciless ways the fulani herdsmen have dealth with them, 70% of PDP big guns in Ondo State are with the former governor Mimiko who is an arrowhead of Wike's G5. For instance Agboola Ajayi who is contesting for senate in Ondo South is a loyalist of the former governor. So Asiwaju will get nothing less than 55-60% in Ondo State, PDP 30%, LP 10%.
LP can't defeat PDP in Bayelsa State, APC will get up to 40% in Rivers State.

Kyase:
Your prediction is almost exactly, what I have written down, with some exceptions

I will be looking forward to your own projection Kyase

wwwkaycom:
Good analysis but you overrated Obi in many states. He won't get 20% in Ondo State. Again, in this 2023 election, Ondo is not a swing state. Ondo State went for Buhari in 2015 despite having a PDP governor but lost to PDP when it had APC governor in 2019. The 2019 scenario came up because of people's hatred for Buhari, feud between the Adams Oshiomole leadership of the APC and the state governor when Oshiomole did not allow the governor to impose his preferred candidates on the party. All the loyalists of the governor contested under AA and that led to splitting of APC votes, PDP became the real beneficiary. But this time, APC is united for Asiwaju in Ondo State, Asiwaju is Yoruba, There are places in Ondo North where you can't mention Atiku because of the merciless ways the fulani herdsmen have dealth with them, 70% of PDP big guns in Ondo State are with the former governor Mimiko who is an arrowhead of Wike's G5. For instance Agboola Ajayi who is contesting for senate in Ondo South is a loyalist of the former governor. So Asiwaju will get nothing less than 55-60% in Ondo State, PDP 30%, LP 10%.
LP can't defeat PDP in Bayelsa State, APC will get up to 40% in Rivers State.

Thanks for the update

[quote author=blazesam post=120891487][/quote]Oga PDP won the presidential elections in Benue state in 2019

ashacot:
This Is My Projection for this month election.
This projection is based on current reality and dynamics of present political settings.
A lot has changed since 2019 election especially the Dynamics.
But i will be givibg my projection based on the following.
1. The candidates
2. The pulse or mood of the country. Voters turn out, Party structure
Please note that this is subjected to changes until the D election. So i will give my projection region by region and may break them down into states.

SOUTH WEST.


OGUN STATE: with an APC governor and the fact that the APC candidate is a son of the soil will deliver a possible 65-70% of the votes. PDP not strong in Ogun and labour party doesn't have any real presence here. APC 65% PDP 20% LP 15%
OYO STATE: is ruled by PDP but the governor is among the G5 governors of PDP that renegade against the PDP presidential candidate. Feelers already has it that the G5 governors are working for Tinubu's emergence. And the Oyo governor is already scheming to trade the presidential votes in his state for his reelection for second term. APC to get 65% here while PDP 20%, labour 15%.
OSUN STATE. Also a PDP state. The governor is firmly an Atiku fan but he will not be able to stop the APC from taken at least 70% of the votes here. While PDP will score %15, labour will get 15% here.
EKITI STATE. An APC state with key players in both parties working for APC. Ex gov, Fayemi who stepped down for Tinubu in the APC primaries is firmly working with the governor to deliver the state. While another ex gov Fayose who is a PDP leader in the state is also working to deliver votes to Tinubu.
There is little or no presence of labour party in the state. APC 70-75% PDP 15% LP 15.
ONDO STATE. An APC controlled state is the swing state of the south west. One can most times not predict the direction the state will vote as APC lost the presidential election here. Unless there is a significant change here, APC may not win here convincingly So in Ondo, APC %50, PDP 25, LP 20% others %5.
Lagos. The headquarters of APC south. The party has not really won the state convincingly. This is the state APC presidential candidate made his name and consolidated his achievements. Though there are many forces against his victory. Here APC %50. LP 35% PDP %10 others 5%.

SOUTH SOUTH.

DELTA STATE. A PDP stronghold. The VP is from the state. Though he has quite a lot of battle to fight to successfully deliver block vote to his party. He has fallen out with his godfather ibori too and APC look like ..has penetrated the state. The APC got over 25% in the region and won some assembly and senate seats too in 2019 election. With the increasing popularity of LP candidate in the state too, block votes here is looking almost impossible. APC 25%, PDP 40% LP 35%
BAYELSA STATE. A PDP state and ex president Jonathan state too. The PDP is still the strongest party here even though it lost the last gov election to APC but got it back through the court. Here PDP 40%, APC 18% LP42%
AKWA IBOM STATE. A PDP state. But will be largely threatened by LP. The governor here is a strong ATIKU ally with APC structure here shakky despite the presence of ex gov Akpabio. Here APC to get 20% PDP 45% LP 35%
CROSS RIVER STATE. An APC state. The governor has vowed to deliver the state to Tinubu. But even at that, the APC will still not win the state. It has been a traditional PDP state. Here APC will get 25-35%, PDP 30% LP 35-40.
RIVERS STATE: A tradition PDP state too. Its governor is the leader of the G5 govs against ATIKU. He has already showed sign that he is supporting the emergence of Tinubu. Here APC to get 30% PDP 30% Labour party 40%.
EDO STATE: PDP has a strong structure here with a governor. However, APC too has a deep structure here led by ex gov Oshomole. The state has always given the APC 30% AND IT will not change. The only changes here will be in introduction of LP which will harm the PDP. APC 30%, PDP 35%, LP 35%

SOUTH EAST .

IMO STATE. An APC state. But even at that, Labour Party still has an edge here. Obi will get the bulk of the votes here. APC 25% PDP 20% LP 55%
ABIA STATE. Another PDP state. Though its gov is among the G5 govs, it may likely work for PDP due to the death of his choice successor. Labour Party still have an edge here. APC 20-25, PDP 25% LP 55-60%
EBONYI STATE: a traditional PDP state. Though presently ruled by an APC gov. Labour party will still edge this state.
Here APC 25% PDP 10% LP ... 65%
ENUGU STATE: the headquarter of PDP states in south east. Its gov is among the G5 govs. His godfather chimaroke is working for Tinubu emergence but LP will dominate here. APC 15-25%, PDP 20%, LP %65.
ANAMBRA STATE: the home state of LP candidate. He is expected to sweep here even though PDP always sweep here in previous election. APC 9%, PDP 1O% LP 81%. APGA O%

NORTH CENTRAL.

ABUJA: APC lost this place to PDP last election. It may do badly here too but it might not significantly harm them bBecause of LP. here APC 30%, PDP 35% LP 35.
NASARAWA STATE: an APC state with both Christians and muslims. Religion may be a factor here. APC 40%, PDP 35% LP 20% NNPP %5
PLATUE STATE: an APC state and also the state of APC presidential DG. Just like nasarawa, religion and tribe will play a major factor here. APC 35%, PDP 25% LP 35 others 5%.
KOGI STATE: An APC state. And also the state of PDP campaign spome person Dinno Malaye. Here APC 50% PDP 30%, LP 15% Others 5%.
KWARA STATE: An APC state. Though PDP has a presence in the state with ex gov saraki still available, labour little or no presence. Here APC 65% PDP 30, LP 10% NNPP 5%.
BENUE STATE. A PDP state. Its gov has vowed not to work for Atiku. But APC has a strong presence with ex gov George Akume still a big factor. with APC having a Popular gov candidate, APC 40% 40% PDP 20%.
NIGER STATE: A state with an APC governor and senators. But president Buhari will not be on the ballot here. PDP are fairly strong here too. and NNPP may get a chunk here. APC 40%, PDP 40% NNPP 15% LP 10%

NORTH EAST

GOMBE STATE: an APC state, here APC 50%, PDP 35% NNPP 10% Others 5%
TARABA STATE: A PDP state. Religion and tribe has always defined vote ..here. PDP won the state at both fed and state level in 2019 election. Here, APC will score 30%, PDP 35%, LP 25% NNPP 10% OTHERS 5%
BORNO: An APC state and the home state of APC presidential candidate. Here APC 60%, PDP 28%, LP8, NNPP, 12%
ADAMAWA: The home state of PDP presidential candidate. He won the 2019 election here by the whiskers but president Buhari is not on the ballot here. APC to get 25%, PDP %60, LP 7% NNPP 7%.
YOBE STATE. An APC state. Here APC will slighly edge PDP. APC 45% PDP 40% LP 1% NNPP %10 others 4%
BAUCHI: PDP state. Here PDP will take this state. Though APC has a strong presence here. APC 30%, PDP 60% LP 10% NNPP, 10%

NORTH WEST

ZAMFARA STATE. Here all the ex governors are in APC. the state is predominantly APC. However, PDP has slight presence here. APC 50%, PDP 30% LP, 5% NNPP 15%
KADUNA STATE: A dynamic state. Presently ruled by an APC governor and a henchman of Tinubu campaign el rufai. The state is also the home state of Labour party candidate. No buhari on the ballot here means APC will get 35%, PDP 35% LP 15%, NNPP 15%
KEBBI STATE. Here the APC and PDP will slug it out even though it is an APC STATE. . APC 35% PDP 35% NNPP 15% Others 15%
JIGAWA: is also an APC state and both APC and PDP will slug it out, with Kwankwanso also in the mix with them.
KASTINA STATE. An APC state and also the home state of president Buhari. Buhari is not on ballot here and PDP has a strong presence here. APC 40% PDP40%, NNPP 10% Others 10%.
KANO state. APC state. But APC will not dominate here because president Buhari is not on ballot and presence of kwankwanso. APC30%, PDP 25% NNPP 30%, Others 15%.
SOKOTO STATE: A PDP State. However, APC also have a strong presence here with ex governor Wamako a strong pillar in the state.
APC 35% PDP 40% NNPP 15% Others 5%.

Based on present dynamics, voter's turn out, candidates on the ballot, pulse of the nation and party structure

APC 1st position
PDP Second position
LP 3rd position
NNPP 4Th position.

I agree with most but you overrated NNPP currently I'm in NW .

ashacot:
I will be looking forward to your own projection Kya.se

Thank you sir

Why won't Tinubu get those figures in Osun and Oyo? So Yoruba in opposition will leave their son and vote Atiku

garfield1:
I agree with your projections largely but for sw,apc will get at least 80% in ekiti.apc won't get more than 55% in osun and 60% in Oyo.ondo should be 60%...
For ss,apc will beat pdp in crs and rivers,will beat lp in bayelsa and get 25% in aks.
I am ok with se but for nc,labour will win plateau and Benue followed by apc.atiku will win bauchi but margin won't pass 10%.tinubu winning margin in yobe will be like borno own.tinubu will win kebbi narrowly and zamfara massively

kcnwaigbo:
Oga PDP won the presidential elections in Benue state in 2019

You are a joker

It is only on Nairaland that Tinubu is considered a leading presidential candidate.

Tinubu will not win any state in the south outside of the SW.

He will not win more 7 states in the North West.

Tinubu presidency is a creation of the media and propaganda.

kcnwaigbo:
Oga PDP won the presidential elections in Benue state in 2019

and even if they did, 2023 is a whole big game changer. Watch and see

Flathead8:
Why won't Tinubu get those figures in Osun and Oyo? So Yoruba in opposition will leave their son and vote Atiku

Asiwaju may not get more than 55% in Osun State, the present governor is doing all he could to undo him in Osun State meanwhile the likes of Omisore will save the day for Asiwaju especially in Ile-Ife/Ijesha axis. Those Oshogbo/Ede areas are angrily Atikulated but Asiwaju will carry the day

Flathead8:
Why won't Tinubu get those figures in Osun and Oyo? So Yoruba in opposition will leave their son and vote Atiku

Some of them are funny

Alright, I'm a northerner, so I don't know much about how SW will play out. But the SW shouldn't give Tinubu anything less than 65% or else, it will be catastrophic

wwwkaycom:
Asiwaju may not get more than 55% in Osun State, the present governor is doing all he could to undo him in Osun State meanwhile the likes of Omisore will save the day for Asiwaju especially in Ile-Ife/Ijesha axis. Those Oshogbo/Ede areas are angrily Atikulated but Asiwaju will carry the day

criminalmindz:
@op.

Don't expect someone to contest 4 times and loose again
We saw it with Buhari.
Even Izayamu will rule edo one day.

Atiku is not Buhari and ize iyamu will never rule Edo State. E go hard

wwwkaycom:
Asiwaju may not get more than 55% in Osun State, the present governor is doing all he could to undo him in Osun State meanwhile the likes of Omisore will save the day for Asiwaju especially in Ile-Ife/Ijesha axis. Those Oshogbo/Ede areas are angrily Atikulated but Asiwaju will carry the day

Ede will go atiku slightly but osogbo will go back apc.what of ejigbo,ila

Digitron:
It is only on Nairaland that Tinubu is considered a leading presidential candidate.

Tinubu will not win any state in the south outside of the SW.

He will not win more 7 states in the North West.

Tinubu presidency is a creation of the media and propaganda.

Tinubu will win at least 8 northern states.atiku won't win any nc state.the ss is a battleground

sunboy:
The American corn industry is worth $60bn annually, that’s just the corn not the whole agriculture industry. Just saying though. That’s more than many sectors in Nigerian GDP.

Where's your own $60bn? 😄😄😄

I will not call this projection, but rather prayer.

Projection is based on factual data.

To project APC to win more Northern states than Atiku is far from being factual.

But it is okay to dream. In 2 weeks time, we will know.

dochenaj:
I will not call this projection, but rather prayer.

Projection is based on factual data.

To project APC to win more Northern states than Atiku is far from being factual.

But it is okay to dream. In 2 weeks time, we will know.

The pulse of the country doesn't favor an Atiku victory. That being said, anything could still happen. But I still see Tinubu winning the election.