₦airaland Forum

JagabanBorgu:
U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

If the election was free and fair APC wouldn't score 10,000 votes in IMO STATE

JagabanBorgu:
U are somewhere believing INEC didn't do the right thing, because the càndidàte u sûppórted lost, if he won, u will clap for INEC for doing the "rîght thing".
Bear ur loss.

U have reading problem.... u are claiming i am somewhere believing inec ddnt do the right thing....i am.not somewhere believing anything....i am commenting based on this thread......
Why are u afraid of review..i have not seen a sore winner before.......its because u know ur win is a pandoras box tgat must must not be checked

...like i said ...i have no candidate... i am all about power coming to the south..so weda tinubu or obi...all good for me.........but we nigerians are used to doing things crookedly as along as we are on the enjoying end of it.... na una way

JoshTim:
Bro, i am telling you what you did is a lie. It's quite sad to realise you lie as pertaining to selecting the samples randomly using Microsoft excel...such pettiness, i don't tolerate.

Them never born you since I started working with datas...

Why not just go and do yours and bring it here instead of using all your energy to castigate the guy. You even went extra miles to tell him he wasn't born when you'd started using data. Please do you know the guy or you're the one that gave birth to him? Nothing one no go see in this faceless forum.

Quote me anywhere, APC can never win Rivers State not to talk of Oyigbo LGA. Rivers State is even more of a PDP State. Tinubu can never ever get up to 10,000 votes in Rivers State. If it was so easy, why didn't APC win the just concluded 2023 Governorship election in the same Rivers State? It was a daylight rigging, it was so obvious & wasn't hidden.

Let him be; he should continue making noise or man up and show us his own analysis. Although the IREV results may not be accurate, I still think that Obinoscopy has shown some level of objectivity in his analysis thus far. Some folks are just fuming now because the outcome of his analysis of River State results is contrary to the first report that indicated that the APC scored the highest total vote cast in the Presidential election.

Slynation:
If you have been working with data like you just claimed, perhaps you would have realized there is no such word like "datas"

Give it up bro... nobody is into any competition with you

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

I will commend u for what u have done , however in voting using statistical analysis can be misleading

JoshTim:
Bursted!!!!
Samples have already been determined apriori, so claims that you used a random sample is a lie, you know that.

If you understand statistics so well as you claimed, you will understand that what you just generated is an estimate not the accurate figure.

It's also important to get a representative sample rather than get a sample that is skewed so that your analysis can follow a normal distribution. Else, what you just generated will have standard deviation greater than zero, skewness greater than zero, and kurtosis less than 3 or greater than 3.

I will like to ask the confidence interval for this your result?

What is the standard error?

It is an estimate and we cannot say for sure how accurate your estimate is. I believe your data is skewed to places where peter obi got majority of his votes.

allow him like statistics is ever reliable

JagabanBorgu:
U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

Most of u think like illiterates ... who in his right senses will vote APC in SE ?? You really don't understand the igbos .... I am even surprised that APC got a few votes... go check out what happened to Andy Uba in the last gubernatorial elections in Anambra... the supreme court governor finished 4th in the last gubernatorial elections in imo ... if APC gets 15% on any SE state, then APC rigged to get the best they cud hv rigged ... SE are people that make their own decisions, they don't support evil , u can't convince them to do the wrong thing like what's happening in SW .... SW were just voting based on tribe disregarding voting the bad one , as long as he's SW ... if Osibanjo contested under LP and okorocha was APCs presidential flag bearer , the result will still not change... igbos are the only ones that don't vote based on tribe , they vote based on credibility...

Felabrity:
and you don't have any proof, as usual

u don't have any proof on Obi votes suppression so equation balance let's move on

IfnobeGod20:
Why not just go and do yours and bring it here instead of using all your energy to castigate the guy. You even went extra miles to tell him he wasn't born when you'd started using data. Please do you know the guy or you're the one that gave birth to him? Nothing one no go see in this faceless forum.

Am sorry sir....i will go and remove where i said he wasn't born when i started using data.

OGHENAOGIE:
u don't have any proof on Obi votes suppression so equation balance let's move on

lol, it's everywhere

This OP is crazy. So you collate result finish, you con say APC win. Later you con do some statistical gibberish call am random sampling 🤣🤣🤣. Well Mr. Obi won't rely on this gibberish in court. The copy of the result from the PU will be used for his case.

Felabrity:
lol, it's everywhere

make ina Continue una go wail till 2027 still lose again... PDP is even d main opposition not noisemakers LP

07kjb:
If the election was free and fair APC wouldn't score 10,000 votes in IMO STATE

If the election was free and fair, Obi wón't get 100k votes outside SE.

JoshTim:
Am sorry sir....i will go and remove where i said he wasn't born when i started using data.

It's better my brother. Good of you, that's is a sign of maturity.

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

Instead of asking a rhetorical question, why not pick 2 states each from the geopolitical region and do the same analysis like you did on the Rivers election?

OGHENAOGIE:
make ina Continue una go wail till 2027 still lose again... PDP is even d main opposition not noisemakers LP

main opposition my axx

A Party that was resurrected in 9 months had 6 million votes with a main opposition party

Dey play

IfnobeGod20:
It's better my brother. Good of you, that's is a sign of maturity.

One love boss

I don't think many people doubt that PO won Rivers State. I for one believe so. It is glaring and I believe the courts will overturn what INEC announced. The issue is that LP needs to overcome a 2.6mln votes deficit with respect to APC's votes and a spread of 25% in about 6 more states. All the states that LP is disputing are states that he already has at least 25% of votes. Focusing on them can add a few votes here and there to the tally but can't give the required spread. That is the real issue.

Mjshexy:
Have you tried Lagos, Nasarawa and maybe plateau state?

I'm sure LP had taken care of that. It was mentioned in their petition.

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

. Appeal Court in Abuja n 2023 ruled that IREV data are secondary so they hold no water in proving cases of election.Oyetola vrs Adeleke 2023. It may interest all of us that IREV data are the premises on which many electoral petitions are based now. Can we see why AC has while trying to solve one problems created another thousands.? Will the judgement pass the litmus test at the SC? Time will tell. Each time I read elections and see IREV I quickly remember AC judgement saga on it.

Beverlyjean:
Most of u think like illiterates ... who in his right senses will vote APC in SE ?? You really don't understand the igbos .... I am even surprised that APC got a few votes... go check out what happened to Andy Uba in the last gubernatorial elections in Anambra... the supreme court governor finished 4th in the last gubernatorial elections in imo ... if APC gets 15% on any SE state, then APC rigged to get the best they cud hv rigged ... SE are people that make their own decisions, they don't support evil , u can't convince them to do the wrong thing like what's happening in SW .... SW were just voting based on tribe disregarding voting the bad one , as long as he's SW ... if Osibanjo contested under LP and okorocha was APCs presidential flag bearer , the result will still not change... igbos are the only ones that don't vote based on tribe , they vote based on credibility...

This is political naivety. SE on its own can't win the Presidency even with 100% of SE votes. The region needs to play the sort of politics that reaches out to other regions particularly in the North. This is what Tinubu and the SW realised more than 8 yrs ago and are now reaping from a change in strategy. Hitherto, the regional politics played by Awo in the 60s and 70s and that played from 1999 to 2015 did not help the SW. In politics, there is nothing like 'i am a saint'. No one is by the way. Learn to play the game.

Beverlyjean:
Most of u think like illiterates ... who in his right senses will vote APC in SE ?? You really don't understand the igbos .... I am even surprised that APC got a few votes... go check out what happened to Andy Uba in the last gubernatorial elections in Anambra... the supreme court governor finished 4th in the last gubernatorial elections in imo ... if APC gets 15% on any SE state, then APC rigged to get the best they cud hv rigged ... SE are people that make their own decisions, they don't support evil , u can't convince them to do the wrong thing like what's happening in SW .... SW were just voting based on tribe disregarding voting the bad one , as long as he's SW ... if Osibanjo contested under LP and okorocha was APCs presidential flag bearer , the result will still not change... igbos are the only ones that don't vote based on tribe , they vote based on credibility...

lgb0s doñ't vote based on tribe yet they gave Lienus Obi over 90% votes.
lgb0s don't support evil yet they are supporting and forcing the evil called Peter Obi down our throats just to get a tribal càndidàte into Aso Rock.
U lgb0s all h8 APC, if we put d score card of all SE govèrñórs together, APC did better in SE as governors, u all h8 APC because of ur h8red for people.
In 2019, I remember on this same NL when lgb0s were praising Yorubas because Yorûbas splitted their votes among the càndidàtes despite having their son running as VP in APC, lgb0s hailed them and called them detribalized people because they felt their enemy was the north because Buhari is a Northerner, now that a Yoruba man is running on the ballot, Yorûbas have 60% of their votes to Tinubu and APC, u have all retracted ur praises in 2019 and turn them to abûse.
U guys are the most tribalistic bigots in Nigèria, no single zone voted along tribal and ethñic lines, only lgb0s did and voted for a proven disaster in Obi only to claim u dón't support eviI.
U are d iIIitràtè here.

JagabanBorgu:
Of course that's the reality
Eluu P supporters don't want to agree that Obi rîggèd.

So what do think should happen to an election in which all parties are accusing each other of rigging? Rigging is against electoral laws, you know.

SlayQueenSlayer:
So what do think should happen to an election in which all parties are accusing each other of rigging? Rigging is against electoral laws, you know.

Donald Trump lost an election and he accused Biden of riggîng, what happened to their elections?

JagabanBorgu:
lgb0s doñ't vote based on tribe yet they gave Lienus Obi over 90% votes.
lgb0s don't support evil yet they are supporting and forcing the evil called Peter Obi down our throats just to get a tribal càndidàte into Aso Rock.
U lgb0s all h8 APC, if we put d score card of all SE govèrñórs together, APC did better in SE as governors, u all h8 APC because of ur h8red for people.
In 2019, I remember on this same NL when lgb0s were praising Yorubas because Yorûbas splitted their votes among the càndidàtes despite having their son running as VP in APC, lgb0s hailed them and called them detribalized people because they felt their enemy was the north because Buhari is a Northerner, now that a Yoruba man is running on the ballot, Yorûbas have 60% of their votes to Tinubu and APC, u have all retracted ur praises in 2019 and turn them to abûse.
U guys are the most tribalistic bigots in Nigèria, no single zone voted along tribal and ethñic lines, only lgb0s did and voted for a proven disaster in Obi only to claim u dón't support eviI.
U are d iIIitràtè here.

No need arguing with u cos u can never get it... u don't have the capability

JagabanBorgu:
U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

If you can prove it why not!

JagabanBorgu:
U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

Kindly show us places in the east, south and north where APC Supporters were beaten up by thugs just like in Lagos where Labour party supporters were harassed and beaten.

Neverslumber:
There is no how, not any possibility of APC winning in Rivers state. My Rivers people are more enlightened to have resorted to voting grandpa

Labour Party were on course to amass close to a million votes in Rivers state until Wike... the most Wicked man on earth swung into action.

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

Very good analysis. Can you do same for Akwaibom state and Benue and plateau states?

Massiveglory:
PODATTI is not an ffk, keyamo or bayo that talks anyhow and anyway.
When they said we won the election and we will prove it. They were not joking

States like rivers, akwaibom, bauchi, jos , imo, ekiti, benue, nasarawa, lagos and more are states where LP votes were either suppressed or outrightly stolen and added to the yakubu select.

We are not so bothered because we know the authentic winner of the election will get his mandate back.

There are many ways to catch a thief. That is why PODATTI took them in ways they could not believe.

It is not a mistake that the riggers forgot to rig abuja. Somethings are divine. You just can't explain why.

The case is at the Court, go and prove your point there and stop disturbing the peace here