politicoNG:


https://www.thecable.ng/bloomberg-predicts-naira-will-record-worst-performance-in-25years-in-2024/amp

this is a very incorrect speculation. sounds like what many nigerians want to hear to discredit the government.

this is a very incorrect speculation. sounds like what many nigerians want to hear to discredit the government.

APC. They claimed they have experience and that the young ones will wreck the country. Majority agreed with them hence they won the election or is it selection.

At the end, we are all suffering from the majority's naivety. Buhari is turning out to be a better President than Tinubu. That is some ISH no one would have said before May 2023. The proof of the pudding is in the eating and this government tastes very bitter.

Ok Mr Bloomberg we understand your pain thanks for your busy body as per Nigeria affairs but one thing we are assuring you is anyone under the sun who all he want is Nigeri must burn, Nigeria must fall, Nigeria must suffer, Nigeria must destroy because of losing election going everywhere with his agents throwing hopelessness missiles on Nigerians that person will never die well, the person will not die where his clothes are as Jah live.

Listen and listen good Mr Prophet Bloomberg bitch, Nigeria will rise belief it or not it will rise and those 2 bitchs sour losers will never rule Nigeria in their lifetime let them use Bloomberg, IMF, Wod Bank, Blueberg, Wereyberg, Ndialaberg etc to be predicting doom upon this country the gospel truth is those 2 losers won't rule Migeria till they die.

Tinubuu will send 8 years and nothing anyone can do about it, whoever want to die because Tinubu is the president can do just that right away there are coffins and casket shops everywhere looking for customer so better die now to provide Christmas money for coffin and casket sellers.

I remember how this motherfucker Bloomberg or Bloombad were from nowhere supporting Gringory then during the election.

SmartyPants:
I hope we will also accept positive reports from Bloomberg too?

In any case, I have scrutinised the article and reject its conclusions. The projection of a weak naira is based on a projected inability to attract fresh foreign investment due to inflation.

This will mean a lower or stable inflow of fx.

However, this does not take into account the projected boost in oil exports and elimination of oil imports with the revival of local refining.
I will align myself with JP Morgan's, Moody's, and Bismark Rewane's projection of a strengthened naira in 2024.

Interestingly, Bloomberg has not gotten a single prediction on Nigeria correct - at least, not in the past 12 months.

We pray the naira gets stronger. However I advise you to hedge your bets. As long as you have insecurity and other factors which affect the logistics of food and free movement of Nigerians, nothing go shele. Only the will of GOD can make things happen without the right foundation.

We know already.

How will their stacked dollars appreciate?

Please allow them have their turn on some of the 200 million mumus who'll still support them in next election circle for peanuts.

Jayhome24:
Ok Mr Bloomberg we understand your pain thanks for your busy body as per Nigeria affairs but one thing we are assuring you is anyone under the sun who all he want is Nigeri must burn, Nigeria must fall, Nigeria must suffer, Nigeria must destroy because of losing election going everywhere with his agents throwing hopelessness missiles on Nigerians that person will never die well, the person will not die where his clothes are as Jah live.

Listen and listen good Mr Prophet Bloomberg bitch, Nigeria will rise belief it or not it will rise and those 2 bitchs sour losers will never rule Nigeria in their lifetime let them use Bloomberg, IMF, Wod Bank, Blueberg, Wereyberg, Ndialaberg etc o be prdicting doom uponthi country the gosel truth is those 2 losers won't rule Migeria till they die.

Babablu bulabu ranting..

jmoore:

Babablu bulabu ranting..

8 years more to go then you wil know who is bulaba or buluba, your head go bracket.

By 2031 be preparing for Ribadu and by 2038 Wike is your president. Take that to bank. Gringory go die, roten and go to hell fire as presidential dreamer.

Your sorrow just started.

So, there's a reason most international organisations tend to avoid stating or overstating the impact of Dangote refinery coming onstream in 2024.

Bear with me and let me try to explain a little.

FIRST OF ALL:
I'm not a pessimist in any way. I'm just looking at the facts.

TRUE FACT:
Dangote refinery will almost certainly eliminate petrol scarcity. That's about it's confirmed and massive benefit.


BOOSTING FOREX?

However, when it comes to boosting Forex or the naira, it's unlikely to contribute any much.

SEE THE REASON:
Remember that as OPEC member, Nigeria has a fixed production quota (we can't exceed that)

Let's just say it's currently 2 million barrels per day.

And let's also assume the current price of a barrel of oil is $100.

SCENARIO 1:
That means at full quota production capacity, Nigeria would earn 2 000 000 x $100 (not all will accrue to FG, but let's ignore that part a bit)

This equates to some $200 million daily.

SCENARIO 2:

Know that local refineries are to purchase crude in NAIRA.

Therefore, if Dangote takes 600,000 barrels daily from nigerias 2,000,000 barely daily production, NG is left with just 1,400,000 barrels to export and earn USD.

Therefore, it's 1,400,000 x $100

Which is about $140,000,000 daily.

From this, you realize that NG has lost $60,000,000 daily FOREX it would have earned if it didn't sell to Dangote refinery.

BUT IT'S NOT AN ISSUE:

So, because of the $60 million forex NG lost to Dangote, Dangote is going to help NG recoup that by NOT spending any extra FOREX to import petrol and other oil, since we now have "full local sufficiency"

Of course, locally Nigeria don't use up to $60 million worth of petroleum products.

So, Dangote will earn extra few million USD from their own export to try and balance everything.

In the end, Nigeria will not be gaining any much extra FOREX.

This is simply because, in helping Dangote to help us reduce demand on FOREX for petroleum products imports, we have to loose some FX that normally accrued from sales of our crude oil in the international market (instead of a mix of international and heavy local market crude sales)

Even if Dangote should buy the crude in USD instead of NAIRA, it will be ultimately the same thing and balances itself out.

IN SUMMARY:

I'm not saying there won't be any FOREX gain.

In fact, there's likely going to be a NET Forex gain.

However, this will be too small to move the niddle any much.

There's a reason most sound economists and foreign financial bodies do not celebrate Dangote refinery as a huge win in Nigeria's perennial FOREX war.

It can only gave a marginal effect.

And to turn around Nigeria's FOREX issues, you don't need just marginal effect. You need to open up a new foreign revenue opportunities that can comfortably give NG at least extra $10 to $20 billion annually.

I hope I've been able to explain this things clearly to you.

SmartyPants:
I hope we will also accept positive reports from Bloomberg too?

However, this does not take into account the projected boost in oil exports and elimination of oil imports with the revival of local refining.

I will align myself with JP Morgan's, Moody's, and Bismark Rewane's projection of a strengthened naira in 2024.

ogawisdom:
Can only happen if Dangote refinery fails to come on before March 2024.

People holding USD will be shocked next year once this refinery comes on.

USD is heavily over priced and should be going down to between 800 & 900.

Hope you are aware crude oil sellers insists they will only sell in USD to Dangote refinery? This increases the pressure on Naira unless Dangote refinery produces excess for export. Nigeria still has backlog of oil futures to fulfill plus, the backlog of USD belonging to foreign companies like Emirate airways and the rest which Nigeria is yet to clear because Nigeria have borrowed heavily against the external reserve and the reserve can't cover the backlog.

***Not an advise but I read somewhere here that AFRI-EXIM bank is gonna lend Nigeria some FX to clear those backlogs. (They will lend us more FX which in turn increases our FX denominated debt (pressure to the naira) and also our overall debt. This is like taking Panadol to suppress a headache that is destined that we MUST suffer) If that happen, it means Naira will gain. Just wait for naira to hit resistance and start loading up Naira sell. Naira will hit NGN2500 before then end of 2024.

Quintessence44:


I GO WITH REWANE AND CARDOSO ON THIS ONE.

BLOOMBERG CAN GO TO HELL.

It doesn't matter who you choose to go with, what will be will be.

Jayhome24:


8 years more to go then you wil know who is bulaba or buluba, your head go bracket.

By 2031 be preparing for Ribadu and by 2038 Wike is your president. Take that to bank. Gringory go die, roten and go to hell fire as presidential dreamer.

Your sorrow just started.

Wike as President? That's a very smart idea
How old will he be by then

Bobloco:
Tinubu is on track to become the worst President in the history of Nigeria.

Lol

KayyDee:
So, there's a reason most international organisations tend to avoid stating or overstating the impact of Dangote refinery coming onstream in 2024.

Bear with me and let me try to explain a little.

FIRST OF ALL:
I'm not a pessimist in any way. I'm just looking at the facts.

TRUE FACT:
Dangote refinery will almost certainly eliminate petrol scarcity. That's about it's confirmed and massive benefit.


BOOSTING FOREX?

However, when it comes to boosting Forex or the naira, it's unlikely to contribute any much.

SEE THE REASON:
Remember that

Where is the reason?

[quote author=Faiththatworks post=127690317]I believe there's a coordinated attempt to instill fear in the minds of Nigeria concerning 2024.
I read Dr Sobowale column in the Vanguard online edition today and I was really bemused and flabbergasted,his doom day prophecy concerning 2024 is worse than what Isreal faced in the bible during the famine and drought of Prophet Elijah.
He predicted food scarcity, currency scarcity,fuel scarcity,forex scarcity and concluded 2024 will be very difficult year for Nigerians.
Bloomberg has decided to follow the same pattern as the Dr of Doom by predicting the Nigerian currency will perform terribly in 2024 meaning expect more devaluation of the currency next year.
I beg to disagree with all these Messages of Doom being released by these so called experts,even when Baba Buhari with his Buharinomics was using 98% of our earnings to pay off foreign debt,the Naira didn't collapse. Dey play if u like no japa when d time is ripe

ogawisdom:
Can only happen if Dangote refinery fails to come on before March 2024.

People holding USD will be shocked next year once this refinery comes on.

USD is heavily over priced and should be going down to between 800 & 900.

Amen o! Let the dollar get cheaper so I can buy more of it.

Kukutenla:

Wike as President? That's a very smart idea
How old will he be by then

Oga I had said mine it's Wike or Imomulen from Edo take it to bank. E go shock you.

[quote author=Jayhome24 post=127692217]Ok Mr Bloomberg we understand your pain thanks for your busy body as per Nigeria affairs but one thing we are assuring you is anyone under the sun who all he want is Nigeri must burn, Nigeria must fall, Nigeria must suffer, Nigeria must destroy because of losing election going everywhere with his agents throwing hopelessness missiles on Nigerians that person will never die well, the person will not die where his clothes are as Jah live.

Listen and listen good Mr Prophet Bloomberg bitch, Nigeria will rise belief it or not it will rise and those 2 bitchs sour losers will never rule Nigeria in their lifetime let them use Bloomberg, IMF, Wod Bank, Blueberg, Wereyberg, Ndialaberg etc to be predicting doom upon this country the gospel truth is those 2 losers won't rule Migeria till they die.
Dey play what have achived since he is in power as more nigerians are japaring nonsense prophecy with no clue

You are correct about everything You have said except mentioning the PH refinery. Dangote refinery will definitely be productive and contribute to our economic recovery.But You see all those government refineries, they will eventually be sold as scrap.When will Nigerians eventually understand that government cannot manage refineries etc? Hell,even their core responsibility of providing security and infrastructure, they are failing greatly at it.

Faiththatworks:
I believe there's a coordinated attempt to instill fear in the minds of Nigeria concerning 2024.
I read Dr Sobowale column in the Vanguard online edition today and I was really bemused and flabbergasted,his doom day prophecy concerning 2024 is worse than what Isreal faced in the bible during the famine and drought of Prophet Elijah.
He predicted food scarcity, currency scarcity,fuel scarcity,forex scarcity and concluded 2024 will be very difficult year for Nigerians.
Bloomberg has decided to follow the same pattern as the Dr of Doom by predicting the Nigerian currency will perform terribly in 2024 meaning expect more devaluation of the currency next year.
I beg to disagree with all these Messages of Doom being released by these so called experts,even when Baba Buhari with his Buharinomics was using 98% of our earnings to pay off foreign debt,the Naira didn't collapse.
These experts all have something in common,they always try to downplay the significant impact the Dangote Refinery and the port Harcourt refinery will have on the economy of Nigeria.
In the report by Bloomberg,they alluded that things will get better if Nigeria is able to produce more crude oil,I daresay Nigeria is already producing more,with local refining expected to Increase significantly in 2024, Nigeria will definitely produce more.
2024 is the year my country will turn a corner for good,like Dr Rewane said, revenues have increased by 200%,the states and local government have more money to work with.
I can testify to this because my mother's pension in Lagos state was increased by 105% in the month of December.
Naysayers should keep their message of Doom cos things are about to get better in Nigeria.
God bless Nigeria.

oluztx:
This is what happens when you allow afonjaas close to leadership. They think it's a tribal thing, my own and my friends. Same afonjaas elected Buhaari and now Tinnubu. In less than 6 months, this guy took Buhaari failure to max level. Dollar to naira went from 470 to 1300. I know an investor that invested million of dollars in Abuja development. He's been taking blood pressure drug and tramadol because his investment has lost 300% in value. Afonjaas are just suffering people for their foolishness of not voting competence. In fact, Afonjaas should be banned from getting visa and leaving this country. They must enjoy what they voted for out of tribal sentiments.

You are an idiot. Nigeria is a cancer that only gets worse. Tribalism makes you lok stupid and uneducated. Everybody cursed all the democratic presidents. The only Yaradua escaped it is because he died. The root cause of the Nigerian problem should not be placed on one president alone. You sound as if Nigeria was ever a utopia

[quote author=KayyDee post=127692399]So, there's a reason most international organisations tend to avoid stating or overstating the impact of Dangote refinery coming onstream in 2024.

Bear with me and let me try to explain a little.

FIRST OF ALL:
I'm not a pessimist in any way. I'm just looking at the facts.

TRUE FACT:
Dangote refinery will almost certainly eliminate petrol scarcity. That's about it's confirmed and massive benefit.


BOOSTING FOREX?

However, when it comes to boosting Forex or the naira, it's unlikely to contribute any much.

SEE THE REASON:
Remember that as OPEC member, Nigeria has a fixed production quota (we can't exceed that)

Let's just say it's currently 2 million barrels per day.

And let's also assume the current price of a barrel of oil is $100. Na statistics we go chop baseless prediction did china, uk,india,togo etc build their economy on crude oil. U go explain taya

Jayhome24:


8 years more to go then you wil know who is bulaba or buluba, your head go bracket.

By 2031 be preparing for Ribadu and by 2038 Wike is your president. Take that to bank. Gringory go die, roten and go to hell fire as presidential dreamer.

Your sorrow just started.

A bulabu buying petrol at 650 naira. I thought you are buying at a cheaper price.
Who is in sorrow if not the agb@do that voted for calamity?

The suffering of your Tinubulation has obviously made you insane..

Your enemies wouldn't like to hear or see any good things happening to you. Same is what this nation is facing because some people hate hearing any good news about the country. All they want to hear is bad things so because they hate the govt of the day. May God disgrace anyone that don't want any good things to happen to this nation.

Faiththatworks:
I believe there's a coordinated attempt to instill fear in the minds of Nigeria concerning 2024.
I read Dr Sobowale column in the Vanguard online edition today and I was really bemused and flabbergasted,his doom day prophecy concerning 2024 is worse than what Isreal faced in the bible during the famine and drought of Prophet Elijah.
He predicted food scarcity, currency scarcity,fuel scarcity,forex scarcity and concluded 2024 will be very difficult year for Nigerians.
Bloomberg has decided to follow the same pattern as the Dr of Doom by predicting the Nigerian currency will perform terribly in 2024 meaning expect more devaluation of the currency next year.
I beg to disagree with all these Messages of Doom being released by these so called experts,even when Baba Buhari with his Buharinomics was using 98% of our earnings to pay off foreign debt,the Naira didn't collapse.
These experts all have something in common,they always try to downplay the significant impact the Dangote Refinery and the port Harcourt refinery will have on the economy of Nigeria.
In the report by Bloomberg,they alluded that things will get better if Nigeria is able to produce more crude oil,I daresay Nigeria is already producing more,with local refining expected to Increase significantly in 2024, Nigeria will definitely produce more.
2024 is the year my country will turn a corner for good,like Dr Rewane said, revenues have increased by 200%,the states and local government have more money to work with.
I can testify to this because my mother's pension in Lagos state was increased by 105% in the month of December.
Naysayers should keep their message of Doom cos things are about to get better in Nigeria.
God bless Nigeria.

Being hopeful, optimistic and patriotic does not mean we close our eyes to facts. Circa N200 to the dollar in 2015 to circa N1,200 to the dollar today speaks all that needs to be spoken. Anyone who can deny the problem here is simply determined to close his eyes. As a saying goes - it is extremely difficult to wake a man who is pretending to be asleep.

Yes you are right.

I think most people don't understand how this Dangote refinery will work.

They tend to think of it as a silver bullet that will cure Nigeria's FOREX malady (or something like that)


But it's like digging a massive pit somewhere to borrow sand to fill up another pit somewhere.

Ultimately there's a pit still lying open somewhere.

It's just like people forget that they can't eat their cakes and still have it.

For example, if OIL PRODUCERS agree to sell to Dangote in NAIRA, they and FG will loose the FX that would have accrued to NG if that volume of crude where to be sold internationally in USD.

So, Dangote will in turn hope to reciprocate by saving NG the corresponding pressure of finding USD for Nigeria's petroleum products imports.

And maybe a few million USD monthly from Dangote refinery exports.

So, for Dangote to save us pressure on USD, they too will first of all have to deny Nigeria some massive FOREX gains, due to buying the crude in Nigerian Naira.


Ultimately, the NET forex gain will be very small.

NOT big enough to move the niddle up.

AGAIN,
If OIL PRODUCERS insists on selling to Dangote is USD, then your guess is as good as mine.

pipnator00:


Hope you are aware crude oil sellers insists they will only sell in USD to Dangote refinery? This increases the pressure on Naira unless Dangote refinery produces excess for export. Nigeria still has backlog of oil futures to fulfill plus, the backlog of USD belonging to foreign companies like Emirate airways and the rest which Nigeria is yet to clear because Nigeria have borrowed heavily against the external reserve and the reserve can't cover the backlog.

***Not an advise but I read somewhere here that AFRI-EXIM bank is gonna lend Nigeria some FX to clear those backlogs. (They will lend us more FX which in turn increases our FX denominated debt (pressure to the naira) and also our overall debt. This is like taking Panadol to suppress a headache that is destined that we MUST suffer) If that happen, it means Naira will gain. Just wait for naira to hit resistance and start loading up Naira sell. Naira will hit NGN2500 before then end of 2024.

Jayhome24:


Oga I had said mine it's Wike or Imomulen from Edo take it to bank. E go shock you.

I'm glad you said yours
Your evil wish for Nigeria will not come to pass

The loan from Afrexim bank will certainly help.However,increased crude oil production is very important. Security is also very important so that farmers can safely work in their farms as this will reduce food importation.Even if Dangote buys crude oil in USD,there will still be a net reduction in fx demand due to associated freight charges and when his refinery achieves steady state and is producing at close to full capacity, he will start exportation which will still improve the fx situation. The naira will be strong and stable if Nigeria can be self sufficient in food and fuel but that requires good governance. [author=pipnator00 post=127692484]

Hope you are aware crude oil sellers insists they will only sell in USD to Dangote refinery? This increases the pressure on Naira unless Dangote refinery produces excess for export. Nigeria still has backlog of oil futures to fulfill plus, the backlog of USD belonging to foreign companies like Emirate airways and the rest which Nigeria is yet to clear because Nigeria have borrowed heavily against the external reserve and the reserve can't cover the backlog.

***Not an advise but I read somewhere here that AFRI-EXIM bank is gonna lend Nigeria some FX to clear those backlogs. (They will lend us more FX which in turn increases our FX denominated debt (pressure to the naira) and also our overall debt. This is like taking Panadol to suppress a headache that is destined that we MUST suffer) If that happen, it means Naira will gain. Just wait for naira to hit resistance and start loading up Naira sell. Naira will hit NGN2500 before then end of 2024.[/quote]

Jayhome24:
Listen and listen good Mr Prophet Bloomberg bitch, Nigeria will rise belief it or not it will rise and those 2 bitchs sour losers will never rule Nigeria in their lifetime let them use Bloomberg, IMF, Wod Bank, Blueberg, Wereyberg, Ndialaberg etc to be predicting doom upon this country the gospel truth is those 2 losers won't rule Migeria till they die.

Tinubuu will send 8 years and nothing anyone can do about it, whoever want to die because Tinubu is the president can do just that right away there are coffins and casket shops everywhere looking for customer so better die now to provide Christmas money for coffin and casket sellers.

I remember how this motherfucker Bloomberg or Bloombad were from nowhere supporting Gringory then during the election.

^^^

We didn't expect ₦ to perform better in 2024 cos it's been going from bad to worst yearly

Doomberg.

I go with local forecast on this.

Prophets of doom

DeepSight:
As a saying goes - it is extremely difficult to wake a man who is pretending to be asleep.

^^^


This is a new one. I'm borrowing this.