₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
Is this your personal thought or what is on the table to be played by management since it looks you operate in the inside

in process

emmanuelewumi:
They will be doing it for the banks who technically own the company at its current state

Oando has paid most of its bank loans using the proceeds of the sale of their downstream filling stations to NNPC. It is contained In the 2022 and 2023 accounts. The major loan they have now is the USD800m from Afrexim bank.

emmanuelewumi:
How did you arrive at the N49 valuation.


The only valuable thing is the company's goodwill and brand name, every other thing na korofo or shell.

The company is working for the banks and can't even meet up

Oando's price got to N49 per share before it dropped on the same day to N40 on the NGX. The peak/highest price it ever got to within six months prior to the AGM is what will be paid to shareholders if they decide to delist within the next 6 months .
We have witnessed and overcome the worst days of Oando which is in the past already.

mikeapollo:
Oando's price got to N49 per share before it dropped on the same day to N40 on the NGX. The peak/highest price it ever got to within six months prior to the AGM is what will be paid to shareholders if they decide to delist within the next 6 months .
We have witnessed and overcome the worst days of Oando which is in the past already.

Don't they use closing price? N49 was intra day.

Raider76:
Don't they use closing price? N49 was intra day.

The rule does not specify whether intra day or closing price.
Even if they use closing price, it would be N44.65 per share.

Picky1:
The real owners will never go empty handed!
Unfortunately, the suckers may be ordinary shareholders/naija people who innocently invested with good intentions yet the regulators/government has always failed them - see nnpc spends billions every year but no benefits comes to naija people who actually owns the so called nnpcl and it's subsidiaries!!
It's better to be a trader in companies like this one....at least for now!!!

Reason why I said insiders and retail investors are playing different games

mikeapollo:
Oando's price got to N49 per share before it dropped on the same day to N40 on the NGX. The peak/highest price it ever got to within six months prior to the AGM is what will be paid to shareholders if they decide to delist within the next 6 months .
We have witnessed and overcome the worst days of Oando which is in the past already.

Yet shareholders fund deteriorated from negative N197 billion in 2022 to negative N236 billion in 2023.


Yet working capital deteriorated from negative N800 billion in 2022 to negative N1. 5 Trillion in 2023


Bank debt and lease increased from N600 billion in 2022 to N820 billion in 2023.


I hope you have the knowledge,skill and experience needed to read and interpret the table attached below

E Ku analysis ooo.
Chai!! Plenty pages on top OANDO matter....
We read more than these when it was selling at circa 8 or so, why the share price needs to go back to 5.50/6.…..but in MARKET REALITY, it eventually translates to more Capital appreciation....up to above N40. Una well done o. 😁

Similar scenario happened in TRANSCORP PLC....why Tony should be avoided, why Transcorp is not a good investment, but today, Tony's stocks are toast of investors.

* In the meantime, I was surprised that all thru this forth and back on OANDO, Oga Emma did not request for a copy of the 2023 Q4 UNAUDITED Financial Report but based his "judgements" on just a single screenshot page!

- What about other pages, AND especially the NOTES to the accounting reporting?
- Doesn't this also form a part of the Financial reporting any more?
- After the release of the Unaudited, what are the positive efforts and things that are being embarked upon so far, which are supposed to be a plus to the outlook of the Company? ---The AGIP 100% acquisition, successful 40% Gazelle participation, AFREXIM loan to expand biz, etc?
- Even if a Company is owing debt, why is it still in biz and making efforts to grow revenue and profit?
Isn't offsetting some of the debts going to be in one of its major To-do list?
- Why still referring to 2022 when updated 2023 was available?
* These and many more questions coming as I was reading those conditioned mindset and partial arguments.

Ok. Make una no vex, I'm not really good in all these accounting terms, na una be accounting gurus, but from the little I was able to scan thru, I strongly think OANDO should be given a benefit of doubt and time to prove many things to us.......either good or bad as we may be assuming.

Q1 and Q2 2024, after AUDITED 2023 is released will shed more light into all these for us.

* My humble and amateur opinion*

Attached is part of the Notes to the 2023 accounts.....

* Referring to page 23 and 24 of the FY reporting....,
... ..and also, to the general notes...

Here's the 2023 FYE Unaudited..
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/41391_OANDO_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MAY_2024.pdf

yMcy56:
Attached is part of the Notes to the 2023 accounts.....

* Referring to page 23 and 24 of the FY reporting....,
... ..and also, to the general notes...

Here's the 2023 FYE Unaudited..
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/41391_OANDO_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MAY_2024.pdf

The statement of the financial position attached above which was also sent by Babs was the most recent one from the company.


Did working capital deteriorate?


Did shareholders fund deteriorate?


Even after paying debt from the disposal of assets did bank debts increase


These were the questions asked.

If this is the case over the years, don't you think that the company will need to be recapitalized?

When it is recapitalized what is going to be the fate of the current holders going forward?

emmanuelewumi:
The statement of the financial position attached above which was also sent by Babs was the most recent one from the company.

Did working capital deteriorate?

Did shareholders fund deteriorate?

Even after paying debt from the disposal of assets did bank debts increase

These were the questions asked.
If this is the case over the years, don't you think that the company will need to be recapitalized?
When it is recapitalized what is going to be the fate of the current holders going forward?

Ok. So now, recapitalization is your concern sir?
Aren't there alternatives to recapitalization?
What about the loan and strategic investments being made?
This is a Company coming out of the wood, can it transform overnight?
Well, I don't think we should constantly be nailing her without considering near future prospects as well...
When the Coy gets to certain bridge, I Blvd they cross it.......No sane entrepreneur wants or will watch his/her investments of years to sink just like that.
* Investments doesn't translate to immediate profits.

Some of the Ogas engaged in this OANDO discussions had raised vital and valid points.
Going forward, I think we should allow the Company prove itself.......then the direction will be visible to every eyes......then we revisit and review the performance (s).
* My take*

emmanuelewumi:
The statement of the financial position attached above which was also sent by Babs was the most recent one from the company.


Did working capital deteriorate?


Did shareholders fund deteriorate?


Even after paying debt from the disposal of assets did bank debts increase


These were the questions asked.

If this is the case over the years, don't you think that the company will need to be recapitalized?

When it is recapitalized what is going to be the fate of the current holders going forward?

You are wasting your time asking Mcy56 these questions; she is not an investor, but rather more of a trader. Her knowledge of financial papers stops at PAT and EPS. Her major indicators are the order book, depth of bid/ask orders, and any news that confirms her position. You people approach the market differently.

Any opposing evidence is emotionally fought and discredited without due consideration, and labeled as a conspiracy to undermine her chosen stock.

Please let time decide; there's no need to go back and forth on all these points. You've made your argument, and those in favor of Oando have also made theirs. Let the market do its thing; when the time comes, either you or they will be vindicated.

The way I am seeing it, this discussion will likely degenerate very soon into an exchange of insults, now that more emotional people are involved.

It came out of the wood in 2023 yet financial position deteriorated the more in 2023 compared to 2022.

Warren Buffett said you can't get out a hole by digging deeper.

A business can't get out of a financial crisis by getting deeper into debt.


That is why businesses are recapitalized.

There are opportunities in the sector but can't be effectively harnessed in the current precarious financial condition of the business or else they will be working for the banks

Add the PAT of the business to provisions for depreciation and amortization, subtract capital expenses and the decrease in working capital from about negative N800 billion to negative N1. 5 Trillion. You will realize that owners earning is negative

ositadima1:
Please let time decide; there's no need to go back and forth on all these points. You've made your argument, and those in favor of Oando have also made theirs. Let the market do its thing; when the time comes, either you or they will be vindicated.

The way I am seeing it, this discussion will likely degenerate very soon into an exchange of insults, now that more emotional people are involved.

Who are the emotional people?


We have been having a wonderful conversation in the past.

ositadima1:
You are wasting your time asking Mcy56 these questions; she is not an investor, but rather more of a trader. Her knowledge of financial papers stops at PAT and EPS. Her major indicators are the order book, depth of bid/ask orders, and any news that confirms her position. You people approach the market differently.

Any opposing evidence is emotionally fought and discredited without due consideration, and labeled as a conspiracy to undermine her chosen stock.

Noted.

Hmmm! Over ₦20m wiped out of my Oando paper profit in 3 days. If I am to lose sleep over not selling, what should those who bought at ₦49 do.
But to be candid when I was gambling Oando at ₦5 if not for greed, ₦44 no do lol.

Morgan Capital Monday stock recommendation of Oando @ target price of ₦75 partly influenced my decision not to sell anyways.
Hope to see a reversal today ooo, especially for those who bought during the rally.

ositadima1:
You are wasting your time asking Mcy56 these questions; she is not an investor, but rather more of a trader. Her knowledge of financial papers stops at PAT and EPS. Her major indicators are the order book, depth of bid/ask orders, and any news that confirms her position. You people approach the market differently.

Any opposing evidence is emotionally fought and discredited without due consideration, and labeled as a conspiracy to undermine her chosen stock.

I'll ignore this.
You're entitled to your opinion.
You can at least see me referred to some pages of the FS.
If what you said is my approach to the market and stocks, my inability to follow herds mentality and trying to interprete in my own little way without depending on any Ogas interpretation for me; has worked in the past AND it's working perfectly well for me, I think I'll rather stick to it.
Thanks.
You guys can't just stand healthy oppossion and debates.

emmanuelewumi:
Who are the emotional people?


We have been having a wonderful conversation in the past.

Good morning all. I want to second Oga Emma on the fact that the conversation is wonderful. I am personally leaning a lot. We should encourage healthy debate which if properly done should not lead to insults. If one properly argued one's case they should be understood from the direction they are coming from.

What I have gathered from all sides is that:

i) From financial reports so far released by OANDO, technically, a normal path is recapitalization by the injection of more capital and not more debt.

ii) The company has added more potential sources of revenue that with time should turn the finances around, and this may start to show in still to be released financial reports. However, these additional sources of revenue were acquired with more debt that may rather compound the problems.

iii) There is scepticism, fear and distrust of the majority ownership, throwing doubt in their future actions. This is based on prior experiences of their past actions.

iv) However, some also have confidence that things will come out ok in the long run.

I personally do not find any of the arguments totally unacceptable.

Raider76:
Good morning all. I want to second Oga Emma on the fact that the conversation is wonderful. I am personally leaning a lot. We should encourage healthy debate which if properly done should not lead to insults. If one properly argued one's case they should be understood from the direction they are coming from.

What I have gathered from all sides is that:

i) From financial reports so far released by OANDO, technically, a normal path is recapitalization by the injection of more capital and not more debt.

ii) The company has added more potential sources of revenue that with time should turn the finances around, and this may start to show in still to be released financial reports. However, these additional sources of revenue were acquired with more debt that may rather compound the problems.

iii) There is scepticism, fear and distrust of the majority ownership, throwing doubt in their future actions. This is based on prior experiences of their past actions.

iv) However, some also have confidence that things will come out ok in the long run.

I personally do not find any of the arguments totally unacceptable.

A fair summary of the deliberations. Well done.

Someone in the thread who appears to have some insider insight also said they are considering raising bonds.

Payunsin:
Hmmm! Over ₦20m wiped out of my Oando paper profit in 3 days. If I am to lose sleep over not selling, what should those who bought at ₦49 do.
But to be candid when I was gambling Oando at ₦5 if not for greed, ₦44 no do lol.

Morgan Capital Monday stock recommendation of Oando @ target price of ₦75 partly influenced my decision not to sell anyways.
Hope to see a reversal today ooo, especially for those who bought during the rally.

Only God knows tomorrow bro..
I had a long term approach to Oando shares which was why i didnt sell. My stockbroker actually called me to notify me that bids were thinning out when it reached the peak (was N49 i think) and advised i sell but i didn't listen. I bought at N18.50 so I'm still in the green... Wale can release positive news to help price action but i don't think the guy considers shoring up price a priority for now.. Oando still has prospects long term.. i think

Wonderful discussion. Thank you to everyone.

How una take de get this level of relationship with una broker? Na only people when their account large? Because for me it is mostly email to their info and anyone on the other end responds and this is also when there is an issue to resolve.

SonofElElyonRet:
Only God knows tomorrow bro..
I had a long term approach to Oando shares which was why i didnt sell. My stockbroker actually called me to notify me that bids were thinning out when it reached the peak (was N49 i think) and advised i sell but i didn't listen. I bought at N18.50 so I'm still in the green... Wale can release positive news to help price action but i don't think the guy considers shoring up price a priority for now.. Oando still has prospects long term.. i think

ojesymsym:
How una take de get this level of relationship with una broker? Na only people when their account large? Because for me it is mostly email to their info and anyone on the other end responds and this is also when there is an issue to resolve.

Same here o!
@sonofElElyonRet abeg who's your broker?

GracefulLau:
Same here o!
@sonofElElyonRet abeg who's your broker?

Personal relationship. Worked with her brother and I've known her for like 20 years

SonofElElyonRet:
Personal relationship. Worked with her brother and I've known her for like 20 years

Ohk

Nice one, it is always good to have someone to bounce ideas with.

SonofElElyonRet:
Personal relationship. Worked with her brother and I've known her for like 20 years

SonofElElyonRet:
Only God knows tomorrow bro..
I had a long term approach to Oando shares which was why i didnt sell. My stockbroker actually called me to notify me that bids were thinning out when it reached the peak (was N49 i think) and advised i sell but i didn't listen. I bought at N18.50 so I'm still in the green... Wale can release positive news to help price action but i don't think the guy considers shoring up price a priority for now.. Oando still has prospects long term.. i think

You entered at such high, will be safe to lock in your capital at 100% and allow the rest do the journey. I get it long term, but caution. I have locked a 100 and another 200% increase since running from 9. Whether Oando takes me to 400 or whatever, I am satisfied. Locked Capital already chasing 3 years bonds.

No ifs, no hope with my capital. That can be done with bonuses. Selah!

Bagwa:
in process

Thanks

yMcy56:
I'll ignore this.
You're entitled to your opinion.
You can at least see me referred to some pages of the FS.
If what you said is my approach to the market and stocks, my inability to follow herds mentality and trying to interprete in my own little way without depending on any Ogas interpretation for me; has worked in the past AND it's working perfectly well for me, I think I'll rather stick to it.
Thanks.
You guys can't just stand healthy oppossion and debates.

You are adding lots of value here. Best to ignore such low opinion from the ITK's. Peter Lynch with his simple approaches beat many who claim to know so much with his record of 5 baggers, 10 baggers etc.

Investment has both quantitative and qualitative aspects. You are definitely far above average in the quantitative approaches of FA and TA. And excellent in the qualitative approaches (which also support FA & TA decision making) with your narrations which makes this thread lively and valuable.

emmanuelewumi:
Yet shareholders fund deteriorated from negative N197 billion in 2022 to negative N236 billion in 2023.
Yet working capital deteriorated from negative N800 billion in 2022 to negative N1. 5 Trillion in 2023
Bank debt and lease increased from N600 billion in 2022 to N820 billion in 2023.
I hope you have the knowledge, skill and experience needed to read and interpret the table attached below

Thank you for the analysis and the last question.

May I ask you if you know and understand the limitations of financial ratio analysis based on historic data?
Also, ask yourself if you are aware of the impact of the oil reserves and other resources that Oando just recently acquired after the release of the 2023 accounts that you reference?
Do you appreciate the impact or relevance of post-balance sheet events when doing your analysis?