₦airaland Forum

bastardson:
Most likely would have some pullback

According to Pa Emma's analysis on ARADEL, it's still a good stock...
Only try to watch out for likely bottom if interested....
What is presently happening in market may be connected to some negative info/news, OR some Ogas trying to depress the price to be able to enter cheaply OR, NGX is trying to find fair value for the share price, Or maybe taking profit to enter another cheaper one or too renter cheaply......
Many likely ifs and reasons actually....

yMcy56:
ARADEL as at now......
Attached.....
Plenty profit takers..,..
Seems many bought it on NASD...

I think they are moving to oando. Oando now 83

Xidget:
What is the fair value for Aradel

Might be going all the way down to N500

dapix:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42337_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

Not a bad one at all

Mpeace:
I think they are moving to oando. Oando now 83

What is pushing Oando? Seems it took a full tank of Dangote PMS this morning and is going vroooom....

GeeKudi:
Might be going all the way down to N500

I was asking for fair value price.

Mpeace:
I think they are moving to oando. Oando now 83

Wow. Oando movement has been crazy ..

I did my own valuation and got around 9-10k without consideration of the SPDC deal. This was back on NASD. Cardinal Stone see it as N1,200 (5trn market cap) which I feel is not accurate, the premium is too high compared to Seplat which is producing almost 3 or 4 times more

Xidget:
I was asking for fair value price.

Maybe they’re going to win the bid for that refinery

Raider76:
What is pushing Oando? Seems it took a full tank of Dangote PMS this morning and is going vroooom....

Sunrisepebble:
I did my own valuation and got around 9-10k without consideration of the SPDC deal. This was back on NASD. Cardinal Stone see it as N1,200 (5trn market cap) which I feel is not accurate, the premium is too high compared to Seplat which is producing almost 3 or 4 times more

Wow, so you feel it might get to Seplat level in the nearest future ?

That 9-10k valuation was pre-split. When I entered the stock I did the valuation and got that amount. I do NOT see it at Seplat level within the next 12 months. Production is too little. But if they get SPDC, it changes the whole conversation.

bastardson:
Wow, so you feel it might get to Seplat level in the nearest future ?

Sunrisepebble:
I did my own valuation and got around 9-10k without consideration of the SPDC deal. This was back on NASD. Cardinal Stone see it as N1,200 (5trn market cap) which I feel is not accurate, the premium is too high compared to Seplat which is producing almost 3 or 4 times more

I personally thinks that the listing price of ARADEL was a bit high....
The stock went up on NASDAQ due to some perceived media bloating/hype......, somehow.
From around N4k it went all the way up to around N10k, and this was used as a basis for listing by introduction.......looks high somehow, considering the 20x split self.

We can't compare ARADEL to SEPLAT!
- SEPLAT has barely over 500M OS while ARADEL has 4Bn+ OS.
So also other metrics.

bastardson:
Wow, so you feel it might get to Seplat level in the nearest future ?

Don't compare ARADEL to SEPLAT

Na OANDO and ARADEL go dey compete with time.....
ARADEL, welcome to NGX

yMcy56:
I personally thinks that the listing price of ARADEL was a bit high....
The stock went up on NASDAQ due to some perceived media bloating somehow.
From around N4k it went all the way up to around N10k, and this was used as a basis for listing by introduction.......looks high somehow, considering the 20x split self.

We can't compare ARADEL to SEPLAT!
- SEPLAT has barely over 500M OS while ARADEL has 4Bn+ OS.

Wow 4bn+ is a lot.

Sunrisepebble:
That 9-10k valuation was pre-split. When I entered the stock I did the valuation and got that amount. I do NOT see it at Seplat level within the next 12 months. Production is too little. But if they get SPDC, it changes the whole conversation.

Wow. So if the bolded happens we could get the Oando/Eni scenario all over again?

dapix:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42337_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

Good one.we go still collect atleast #1 plus by year end.Make pe less that 10.

yMcy56:
Don't compare ARADEL to SEPLAT

Na OANDO and ARADEL go dey compete with time...
ARADEL, welcome to NGX

It is more like between Oando and SEPLAT. Currently, SEPLAT produces about 48,000 boepd while Oando produces about 40000 boepd excluding both Mobil/ENI acquisitions

dapix:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42337_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

EPS of N3.55 was annualized and based on 6B units of outstanding shares.

If we factor in the 18B units after the dilution, EPS for 9 months will be 88k and after annualizing this, it will be N1.17

Final dividend should not exceed N1.

Maybe less than 80k.

That is if they extremely generous with the payout ratio

But it's the beginning of big things to happen for UCAP

mikeapollo:
It is more like between Oando and SEPLAT. Currently, SEPLAT produces about 48,000 boepd while Oando produces about 40000 boepd excluding both Mobil/ENI acquisitions

Seplat production is the asset they currently operate. Mobil asset production to be added when deal is sealed. Oando production on the other hand already accounts for Agip acquisition as it is the same asset

I don’t think that Oando figure is correct. It’s around 20kboepd. Seplat is by far the baba in the game.

mikeapollo:
It is more like between Oando and SEPLAT. Currently, SEPLAT produces about 48,000 boepd while Oando produces about 40000 boepd excluding both Mobil/ENI acquisitions

Market mood this time around:

Full bid today, full offer tomorrow
Or
Bid will be greater than offer, yet prices will be falling

yMcy56:
According to Pa Emma's analysis on ARADEL, it's still a good stock...
Only try to watch out for likely bottom if interested....
What is presently happening in market may be connected to some negative info/news, OR some Ogas trying to depress the price to be able to enter cheaply OR, NGX is trying to find fair value for the share price, Or maybe taking profit to enter another cheaper one or too renter cheaply......
Many likely ifs and reasons actually....

The way Aradel has risen this year in NASD, thanks to Sunrisepebble that gave us live insight, there will be many that will want to take profit. And are not ready to wait and take further risk for future growth and dividends that is currently priced into the share price.

GeeKudi:
Might be going all the way down to N500

Looks like a fairer price in this market right now.

ETERNA is now inversely to OANDO.

has the cord been broken?

Sunrisepebble:
I don’t think that Oando figure is correct. It’s around 20kboepd. Seplat is by far the baba in the game.

Hovering 28-30k actually, in the past week. And that figure already accounts for the Agip acquisition, unlike Seplat whose current production figure is only of its current operated asset. Mobil is set to bring in about 30% additional production and more in oil and gas reserves.

Seplat is by no means in the same class as Oando in terms of production

Sunrisepebble:
I don’t think that Oando figure is correct. It’s around 20kboepd. Seplat is by far the baba in the game.

Please check it on Oando's website. It is a figure that has been on the website since early part of this year. The most recent (updated) figure (even before the ENI deal) may be higher than that.

unite4real:
ETERNA is now inversely to OANDO.

has the cord been broken?

OANDO and ETERNA are not in the same league.
Though in same Sector but with different areas of operation.....
ETERNA downstream, OANDO upstream

I bought on NASD @260

BullBearMkt:
I guess you know what to do; either average down @ appropriate time or provide liquidity for the market

yMcy56:
OANDO and ETERNA are not in the same league.
Though in same Sector but with different areas of operation.....
ETERNA downstream, OANDO upstream

It's about the contagion effect Oando price movement have had with Eterna. I wasn't comparing them.

Xidget:
Even Sukuk that was supposed to drop on 13th Oct is yet to come.

Sukuk been saving lives since 1900!

KarlTom:
I bought on NASD @260

Convert it to long term
Buy more to average it down when likely bottom is sighted.
It's still a good stock, according to the analysis I read here about it.......(though I didn't check it out myself sha).
Check the numbers yourself.
People no wan do long term again! Chai!!
When profit takers are done; good news surface or good result show, the price will stabilize.

To those who were fantasizing about the 'shadow' while ignoring the main thing: how market?