₦airaland Forum

designking:
FBNH Appoints Adebowale Oyedeji as New GMD

FBN Holdings Plc, has announced the appointment of Adebowale (Wale) Oyedeji as the new Group Managing Director (GMD), effective November 13, 2024. This pivotal appointment is subject to the approval of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and will require ratification by the shareholders during the upcoming Annual General Meeting.

Akpaamunsi:
Hmmn, why always yoruba at the helm of affairs of first bank despite the fact that they have been developing poorly with that tribe at the helm of affairs of the bank? I think it's time I close my account and sell of my holdings there.

megawealth01:
Otedola seems to be winning ooooo... Congratulations to my direct boss while I was in the service of FBN

sky2891:
AGM coming up possibly on 14th November 2024.
Dividend Payment possibly on 15th November 2024.
Resolutions about Recapitalisation and Name change from FBNHoldings to First HoldCo

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42355_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-_NOTICES_OF_ANNUAL_GENERAL_MEETING_(AGM)_-__ANNUAL_GENERAL_MEETING_(AGM)_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

Omooloriredade:
Please o. For those that perceive my post anyway other than what it is- just a humble personal ojpinion, make una no vex o. Countering a position or an idea is not to be perceived as an attack on your person. I welcome counter opinions to my post.

So here goes:

First of all let's define what it means to do an Oando in terms of SP appreciation.
Oando's closing price on the 2nd of May 2024 was N9.00 and it went on to reach N95.5 on 10th September 2024.
That was a 961% rise over a period of 4 months and a bit. A c.540% appreciation for the period July to September.

In my humble opinion, neither Unity bank nor International Breweries can do that. If they were to give that kind of Oando-like yield as described above, a 2008-like event will be required in which case it wouldn't matter if it was the aforementioned stocks or not. It would be a "Point-and-Kill" situation. Roll the dial and pick the stock where it lands. Even Omooloriredade-OIL (that newly registered with CAC and is still looking for office space) will deliver 1000% SP appreciation on the NGX.

Secondly, let's look at the restructuring you are refering to in both stocks:

Unity Bank - In its history has never been in the top 5 banks in Nigeria. They have hit ground zero (actually 6 feet under) and are being revived in ICU by the CBN. The restructuring is meant to recapitalise the bank and essentially save it from going under. One other thing to consider about banks is that there is hierarchy which is determined by market share, profitability and quality of management (among others). Unity is at the very bottom in each of these yardsticks. An Oando-like SP appreciation is virtually impossible except in the scenerio mentioned above in which case, it becomes a moot point.
Now Unity bank last traded at N1.50. Without a share consolidation, you are suggesting the bank will trade at N15 in few months because of a restructuring? Would it be from capturing a staggering market share or experiencing astronomical earnings growth?? If shares are consolidated and it trades at N15, I hope you understand that is not an appreciation For now, I'm pretending the scale will be tipped in favour of legacy Unity bank shareholders post merger with Providus bank. <Yinmu!!>

Internation Breweries - Historically, going back 5yrs, the highest the stock traded was N9.50. It is currently trading at N4.33, has experienced dilution and has just concluded a Rights Issue (6 for every share held previously). The raise is meant to recapitalise the company so they can stem the tide of loses they have been suffering in recent years, deleverage the company and put them in a position to favourably/profitably COMPETE with their peers in the industry. The brewery market is a stiff competition between Guinness, NB, IB, Champion et al. There is little margin for poor marketing, operational inefficiency, inadequate or poor diversity in consumer products and poor distribution channels. Get anyone of these wrong and you find yourself on the back foot struggling to protect your margins.

Before the RI, IB had #26.9B (50k) shares issued and fully paid. They converted them to 2k nominal shares just before the RI (I'm a bit surprised the SP wasn't adjusted on the exchange tbh but I guess it's because the RI was priced at N3.65 for 2k shares anyway). Let's use SP of N4.33, MCAP was N116B before the Rights issue. RI was #161B extra (2k) shares at N3.65 raising cool N588B which is set to turn around the fortunes of the company but at unprecedented destruction of the share capital structure. They now have #188B shares of 2k each issued and fully paid. Point to note though, shares are 2k denominated not 50k so at some stage, a mega consolidation may be required. Back to my MCAP calculation, post RI, IB has an MCAP of N814B.
Without a share consolidation, you are suggesting IB can trade at N43 (N8.1T MCAP)? How? Also, if they consolidate say 2k to 50k nominal shares like most stocks on the NGX, OS reduces to #7.5B while SP moves from N4.33 to N108.25. I hope you understand that is not an SP appreciation

Hey! I am not suggesting money can't be made from investing in both stocks but an Oando-like SP appreciation in the foreseeable future is wishful thinking.

Key ingredients for an Oando-like type SP appreciation. The list is not exhaustive but here are a few I can think of:

* Sector with untapped opportunities
* Favourable government policies
* Imbalance of market demand and available supply
* Established Industry margins
* Huge disparity in peer comparisons
* First mover advantage in a promising sector
* Unprecedented discovery of an opportunity or resource or technology.
* Historical considerations of trading and market share if company has been in the doldrums for a long period and the market opportunity still exists.

Disclaimer - Humble opinion only and not to be taken as financial advice. I have been wrong many times in the past so however we place our bets, I can only hope our dreams come true.

The post long sha. Chai!

toyeoye:
My tribe is better than yours!"
A Nigerian shouts at another as they both struggle to pay for cooking gas.
But what tribe does inflation belong to?
Can't you see the real trick here?
Your future is being taken while you argue over tribes.

Omooloriredade:
Please o. For those that perceive my post anyway other than what it is- just a humble personal opinion, make una no vex o. Countering a position or an idea is not to be perceived as an attack on your person. I welcome counter opinions to my post.

So here goes:

First of all let's define what it means to do an Oando in terms of SP appreciation.
Oando's closing price on the 2nd of May 2024 was N9.00 and it went on to reach N95.5 on 10th September 2024.
That was a 961% rise over a period of 4 months and a bit. A c.540% appreciation for the period July to September.

In my humble opinion, neither Unity bank nor International Breweries can do that. If they were to give that kind of Oando-like yield as described above, a 2008-like event will be required in which case it wouldn't matter if it was the aforementioned stocks or not. It would be a "Point-and-Kill" situation. Roll the dial and pick the stock where it lands. Even Omooloriredade-OIL (that newly registered with CAC and is still looking for office space) will deliver 1000% SP appreciation on the NGX.

Secondly, let's look at the restructuring you are refering to in both stocks:

Unity Bank - In its history has never been in the top 5 banks in Nigeria. They have hit ground zero (actually 6 feet under) and are being revived in ICU by the CBN. The restructuring is meant to recapitalise the bank and essentially save it from going under. One other thing to consider about banks is that there is hierarchy which is determined by market share, profitability and quality of management (among others). Unity is at the very bottom in each of these yardsticks. An Oando-like SP appreciation is virtually impossible except in the scenerio mentioned above in which case, it becomes a moot point.
Now Unity bank last traded at N1.50. Without a share consolidation, you are suggesting the bank will trade at N15 in few months because of a restructuring? Would it be from capturing a staggering market share or experiencing astronomical earnings growth?? If shares are consolidated and it trades at N15, I hope you understand that is not an appreciation For now, I'm pretending the scale will be tipped in favour of legacy Unity bank shareholders post merger with Providus bank. <Yinmu!!>

Internation Breweries - Historically, going back 5yrs, the highest the stock traded was N9.50. It is currently trading at N4.33, has experienced dilution and has just concluded a Rights Issue (6 for every share held previously). The raise is meant to recapitalise the company so they can stem the tide of loses they have been suffering in recent years, deleverage the company and put them in a position to favourably/profitably COMPETE with their peers in the industry. The brewery market is a stiff competition between Guinness, NB, IB, Champion et al. There is little margin for poor marketing, operational inefficiency, inadequate or poor diversity in consumer products and poor distribution channels. Get anyone of these wrong and you find yourself on the back foot struggling to protect your margins.

Before the RI, IB had #26.9B (50k) shares issued and fully paid. They converted them to 2k nominal shares just before the RI (I'm a bit surprised the SP wasn't adjusted on the exchange tbh but I guess it's because the RI was priced at N3.65 for 2k shares anyway). Let's use SP of N4.33, MCAP was N116B before the Rights issue. RI was #161B extra (2k) shares at N3.65 raising cool N588B which is set to turn around the fortunes of the company but at unprecedented destruction of the share capital structure. They now have #188B shares of 2k each issued and fully paid. Point to note though, shares are 2k denominated not 50k so at some stage, a mega consolidation may be required. Back to my MCAP calculation, post RI, IB has an MCAP of N814B.
Without a share consolidation, you are suggesting IB can trade at N43 (N8.1T MCAP)? How? Also, if they consolidate say 2k to 50k nominal shares like most stocks on the NGX, OS reduces to #7.5B while SP moves from N4.33 to N108.25. I hope you understand that is not an SP appreciation

Hey! I am not suggesting money can't be made from investing in both stocks but an Oando-like SP appreciation in the foreseeable future is wishful thinking.

Key ingredients for an Oando-like type SP appreciation. The list is not exhaustive but here are a few I can think of:

* Sector with untapped opportunities
* Favourable government policies
* Imbalance of market demand and available supply
* Established Industry margins
* Huge disparity in peer comparisons
* First mover advantage in a promising sector
* Unprecedented discovery of an opportunity or resource or technology.
* Historical considerations of trading and market share if company has been in the doldrums for a long period and the market opportunity still exists.

Disclaimer - Humble opinion only and not to be taken as financial advice. I have been wrong many times in the past so however we place our bets, I can only hope our dreams come true.

The post long sha. Chai!

Akpaamunsi:
The truth is better. With an omoluabi at the helm of affairs in Aso rock, we now know where the problems of Nigeria are originating from.

Akpaamunsi:
The truth is better. With an omoluabi at the helm of affairs in Aso rock, we now know where the problems of Nigeria are originating from.

Akpaamunsi:
The truth is better. With an omoluabi at the helm of affairs in Aso rock, we now know where the problems of Nigeria are originating from.

sky2891:
AGM coming up possibly on 14th November 2024.
Dividend Payment possibly on 15th November 2024.
Resolutions about Recapitalisation and Name change from FBNHoldings to First HoldCo

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42355_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-_NOTICES_OF_ANNUAL_GENERAL_MEETING_(AGM)_-__ANNUAL_GENERAL_MEETING_(AGM)_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

megawealth01:
I usually avoid tribal talks because E go derail this thread. Na mainly the poor or middle class that care about all these tribal draggings... Many people in my circle inter married and are living very happily

Akpaamunsi:
You are talking out of point. What has intermarriage got to do with an omoluabi who has destroyed Nigeria? You must not comment every time, .. just read and pass

Akpaamunsi:
The South West via their frogged eyed city boy and his bunch of urchins who stole and grabbed power just to answer president without capacity, should be held responsible for the bastardization and murder of the Nigerian economy . The Truth is bitter and it hurts, but it must be spoken. If you don't like it, go and hug transformer

toyeoye:
My tribe is better than yours!"
A Nigerian shouts at another as they both struggle to pay for cooking gas.
But what tribe does inflation belong to?
Can't you see the real trick here?
Your future is being taken while you argue over tribes.

mikeapollo:
I d
You are making the same mistake like some people who condemned and wrote off Oando based on some TA or FA within some specific periods in the past.
IB did a PO at a price of 60kobo and the share price got to as high as about N45--N50 before falling to the current N4.50.
If IB should go back to N45, that would be 1000% of he current price.
Oando has gotten this high because of future expectations and not necessarily linked to its current RI.
Using May-Sep 2024 as basis period for your anslysis is disingenuous because some of us had been In Oando since 2021/22 while some people bought in 2024 just before the rally started. So the timing of purchase is a key factor here.

Unity Bank is currently N1.50 and being restructured by CBN. It can go lower below N1.00 and also has the potential to sell at N5 and higher after the merger with Providus Bank.

"Doing an Oando" for me may be different to"doing an Oando" to you. It does not mean it must be 900-1000% gain.

NB
I don't have a single unit of IB and UB currently but will mobilize to buy if they stay at current prices when I get some considerable cash

megawealth01:
Many people here have written UNITY BANK off severally and I don't even want to reply because na my stock be UNITY BANK but Mr Time will do the needful soon and all I will be doing then is what I do while Oando surprised a lot of people even those that claim they bought it and advised others to do same while we all know the truth... I laugh in french. We all know that I always call Oando a gamble. You can also redefine what I call things anyway you want it...

UNITY BANK is proudly my bank so if you una no get mind to lose money just stay away from UNITY

As for international breweries I bought it as an ANAMBRA project just like I did for CUTIX, Fidelity etc and don't mind going down with them. We go drag ourselves tire until the management (IB) decide to either waka comot or continue being in the NGX...

Note

I'm heavy on both just that na UNITY BANK be my main bet.

Thanks to GOD this market doesn't follow emotions or people's hatred of what works and mints raw and fast cash . Time go tell las las

My brother this message isn't for you ooooooo

Omooloriredade:
Just to be clear, the Oando move only happened during the period I stated so what happened in 2021 is immaterial in defining an Oando-like SP appreciation in this context otherwise there would be many other stocks that fall in same category or have produced even far superior returns. You would agree with me that there are many stocks that were kobo kobo in 2021 that have produced returns far in excess of what Oando has delivered. How much was Transcorp in 2021? UCAP nko? Now, you see there is nothing special about the Oando return any longer? The shortness of the duration is what makes it special. A lot of companies have produced incredible returns over a year or more. Now, identifying that stock, taking position before the event is what we are talking about. Except you don't mind taking position 3 to 5yrs before the rerate happens. Not a bad thing by the way. A lot do that here.

When some people make projections, they just pluck a figure out of the air. Not you o. I know many people that can't wrap their mind around billions or trillions. They go - there were a lot of people at the rally, billions. Huh? How na? Wetin be world population again? It number of people they saw was just overwhelming for them. I put it to you that IB at 40k and with the number of shares it had at the time and the structure, size, capacity and players in the brewery market then is different to what we have to day.

Actually, you can't just look at random SPs from the past in isolation without considering other factors. Heavy consolidation and restructuring happened. Like I explained previously, SP change after a consolidation is not SP appreciation. E.g Transcorp will commence trading at N40 when suspension is lifted, then someone comes to tell us how SP went from N1 to N40. See gain?
Please see attached file to understand. The previous public offer before this was in 1999 so I want to believe you were not referring to that one. 2007 PO was at N0.87k. Even then my point still stands.

Now another point you need to understand is that a company can not be valued at such outrageous multiples of it's annual revenue and earnings except in exceptional cases (market & earnings potential support it). N8T puts it in the category of Dangote Cement with annual revenue in trillions of Naira (over N2T in 2023). IB's annual revenue is a pitiably small amount of less than N300B not earnings o (paltry amount since you see it trading at Dangote cement market cap na). Bros, it doesn't work that way for such a company.

What is the combined industry revenue? They (Guinness, NB, IB, Champion et al) struggled to reach the N1.5T mark in 2023. The total addressable market never reach wetin go make IB an N8T MCAP stock anytime in the foreseeable future.

@Mike I lumped other matters not related specifically to you that has always been on my mind so don't take my post personal. I just don't understand why and how people deal with numbers sometimes. Ah! Oando is going to N2000, Transcorp is going to N500. How did you arrrive at that conclusion? Number sounds cool?

Omooloriredade:
Please o. For those that perceive my post anyway other than what it is- just a humble personal opinion, make una no vex o. Countering a position or an idea is not to be perceived as an attack on your person. I welcome counter opinions to my post.

So here goes:

[b]First of all let's define what it means to do an Oando in terms of SP appreciation.
Oando's closing price on the 2nd of May 2024 was N9.00 and it went on to reach N95.5 on 10th September 2024.


The post long sha. Chai!

megawealth01:
"The Nigerian National Electricity Grid has experienced a distressing trifecta -HAT TRICK- with three dramatic collapses occurring in quick succession over the course of just two weeks. The NATIONAL GRID needs to be put on WATCHLIST"

Omoyele Sowore

nosa2:
I see it happening in the banking sector

megawealth01:
If this is the current situation in Nigeria then Davido's dad might have to list his company in NGX to save the power situation in Nigeria and help a lot earn good living as shareholders in his company

Agbalowomeri:
Lol you don see him near the market? No be everybody like noise associated with NGX and Forbes billionaire list

megawealth01:

designking:
FBNH Appoints Adebowale Oyedeji as New GMD

FBN Holdings Plc, has announced the appointment of Adebowale (Wale) Oyedeji as the new Group Managing Director (GMD), effective November 13, 2024. This pivotal appointment is subject to the approval of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and will require ratification by the shareholders during the upcoming Annual General Meeting.

mikeapollo:
Never say never in NSE/NGX!
Look, both IB and Unity Bank can still do an Oando if there is any sudden foreign acquisition or injection of funds by a major international player. You can never be too sure of these things.
Oando turned around faster because of the ENI deal, even though some of us had realized years back that it was too undervalued for a very long time. Nobody knew that ENI deal was coming!
Any stocks that has remained undervalued for a long time can do "an Oando" e.g. Ikeja Hotels was selling around N1.00 a some months ago.
The real issue is that we don't know the actual sequence and timing of events so that we could buy and take position just before the steady rise in price begins, unless an insider.
Even Oando itself did not have a straight journey from May to Sep2024. It still went down in May-June 2024. The steady rise started around Jul/Aug after the ENI deal was officially announced as complete.

Raider76:
Looks like people named 'Wale" tend to find themselves in the money. I will note that while naming my next child.