₦airaland Forum

So bonus shares is the big news

mikeapollo:
There is some inertia in Oando for now.
There may not be any significant price gains until few days to the AGM, if at all.
At this time, Christmas/New Year budget needs to be catered for, first before any other thing.
Again the ratio/percentage of the bonus was not disclosed, hence investors would thread cautiously.

mikeapollo:
You believe this clueless, incompetent and useless government at your peril.

Well said the only thing is just for one to be lucky to get stock that is of interest to them, example being Oando and japaul may be in that category of "their" interest soon

So its just bonus shares

mikeapollo:
There is some inertia in Oando for now.
There may not be any significant price gains until few days to the AGM, if at all.
At this time, Christmas/New Year budget needs to be catered for, first before any other thing.
Again the ratio/percentage of the bonus was not disclosed, hence investors would thread cautiously.

Sunrisepebble:
So bonus shares is the big news

That is what could possibly qualify as positive ''news'' for Oando for now, apart from possibly releasing a good result for Q3 2024.
Abi the foreign Refinery don click?

yMcy56:
So with the results, private placements, signed contracts, gold mining on the way and huge cross deals going on for over a month, it's still gambling to you??
Issorite o. Leave gambling for the gamblers then. 😊

Japaul turnover for 9 months in 2024 is N2.14B, the same company got a contract of average of N1B per month. The company is to start Gold mining on or before Jan 2026 which is about 13 months time, during the period they will start installation of the gold processing plant. The news of the commence of the installation of the facility could drive the price to N10. I don't think I need a prophet to tell me to buy 50m units of Japaul.

mikeapollo:
You believe this clueless, incompetent and useless government at your peril.

Oga, This is not a thread to express political sentiments but to analyse how government policies or lack of it, government actions and inactions affect investments so that we can act and take positions.

For example, in the US and UK where the governments are not clueless, incompetent and useless, the stock markets do experience similar things just like we see it in 9ja.

It's the refinery news I want. That's the only thing I can see sending the price to N100+. I don't really see why companies issue bonus shares sha but unless its a 2 for 1 kind of bonus issue, not a great news

mikeapollo:
That is what could possibly qualify as positive ''news'' for Oando for now, apart from possibly releasing a good result for Q3 2024.
Abi the foreign Refinery don click?

At the moment, this seems like it is solely a debt to equity conversion. However, there will be an attempt to "engage" the minority shareholders

*NFA/DYOR

Sunrisepebble:
I think there is a news relating to this, still doing DD and awaiting more: https://nairametrics.com/2024/09/19/pz-cussons-progress-with-plans-to-sell-its-african-business-after-receiving-expressions-of-interest/?amp=1

NB: I own no units yet. DYOR/ not a buy or financial advice

Sunrisepebble:
It's the refinery news I want. That's the only thing I can see sending the price to N100+. I don't really see why companies issue bonus shares sha but unless its a 2 for 1 kind of bonus issue, not a great news

Lol.
You want Oando to reach N100 fast fast. You be long throat oo.
That foreign refinery would cause serious controversy for Oando.... because of the situation with our oil refineries and the issue about how NNPC acquired OVH etc.
Left to me, I would prefer Oando stays out of any refinery matter until after the clueless Tinubu is no more in power, so that the controversies would be minimal.

Detailed report on the wapco acquisition from the hong kong exchange:
https://en.huaxincem.com/upload/20241201/1ie0scte65oe1o6go.pdf

bovali:
Detailed report on the wapco acquisition from the hong kong exchange:
https://en.huaxincem.com/upload/20241201/1ie0scte65oe1o6go.pdf

So based of this report, my analysis is as follows:

Acquisition Details
New Ownership: Huaxin Cement (China) is acquiring 83.81% of WAPCO through a major transaction, which may lead to a 100% takeover.
Valuation: Enterprise value estimated at $1.1 - $1.6 billion based on EBITDA multiples and asset valuations.
Future Strategy: Huaxin Cement aims to improve operational performance and achieve targeted returns through integration and enhanced management

Key Inputs
- Outstanding Shares: 16.108 billion shares
- Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1,700 NGN
- Enterprise Value (EV): Range $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion
- Net Debt: $1 million (debt) - $53 million (cash) = $52 million net cash (improves equity value)

Calculation Steps
Equity Value = EV + Net Cash
Equity Value in NGN = Equity Value (USD) × Exchange Rate
Share Price (NGN) = Equity Value in NGN / Outstanding Shares

Calculations
For EV = $1.1 billion:
Equity Value: $1,100M + $52M = $1,152M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,152M × 1,700 = ₦1,958,400M
Share Price: ₦1,958,400M / 16.108B = ₦121.62

For EV = $1.6 billion:
Equity Value: $1,600M + $52M = $1,652M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,652M × 1,700 = ₦2,808,400M
Share Price: ₦2,808,400M / 16.108B = ₦174.39

Potential Share Price Range
Lower Target: ₦121.62
Upper Target: ₦174.39

Ellahlakes closed on green, Hmm...those waiting at sub 3 how far. Me too dey wait sha so I can average down
@Loco is this our championbrew now ripe for championship?

170. I must see the end of that MTO. This is a two weeks strong bull kind of news

Thanks for the analysis

bovali:
So based of this report, my analysis is as follows:

Acquisition Details
New Ownership: Huaxin Cement (China) is acquiring 83.81% of WAPCO through a major transaction, which may lead to a 100% takeover.
Valuation: Enterprise value estimated at $1.1 - $1.6 billion based on EBITDA multiples and asset valuations.
Future Strategy: Huaxin Cement aims to improve operational performance and achieve targeted returns through integration and enhanced management

Key Inputs
- Outstanding Shares: 16.108 billion shares
- Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1,700 NGN
- Enterprise Value (EV): Range $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion
- Net Debt: $1 million (debt) - $53 million (cash) = $52 million net cash (improves equity value)

Calculation Steps
Equity Value = EV + Net Cash
Equity Value in NGN = Equity Value (USD) × Exchange Rate
Share Price (NGN) = Equity Value in NGN / Outstanding Shares

Calculations
For EV = $1.1 billion:
Equity Value: $1,100M + $52M = $1,152M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,152M × 1,700 = ₦1,958,400M
Share Price: ₦1,958,400M / 16.108B = ₦121.62

For EV = $1.6 billion:
Equity Value: $1,600M + $52M = $1,652M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,652M × 1,700 = ₦2,808,400M
Share Price: ₦2,808,400M / 16.108B = ₦174.39

Potential Share Price Range
Lower Target: ₦121.62
Upper Target: ₦174.39

bovali:
So based of this report, my analysis is as follows:

Acquisition Details
New Ownership: Huaxin Cement (China) is acquiring 83.81% of WAPCO through a major transaction, which may lead to a 100% takeover.
Valuation: Enterprise value estimated at $1.1 - $1.6 billion based on EBITDA multiples and asset valuations.
Future Strategy: Huaxin Cement aims to improve operational performance and achieve targeted returns through integration and enhanced management

Key Inputs
- Outstanding Shares: 16.108 billion shares
- Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1,700 NGN
- Enterprise Value (EV): Range $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion
- Net Debt: $1 million (debt) - $53 million (cash) = $52 million net cash (improves equity value)

Calculation Steps
Equity Value = EV + Net Cash
Equity Value in NGN = Equity Value (USD) × Exchange Rate
Share Price (NGN) = Equity Value in NGN / Outstanding Shares

Calculations
For EV = $1.1 billion:
Equity Value: $1,100M + $52M = $1,152M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,152M × 1,700 = ₦1,958,400M
Share Price: ₦1,958,400M / 16.108B = ₦121.62

For EV = $1.6 billion:
Equity Value: $1,600M + $52M = $1,652M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,652M × 1,700 = ₦2,808,400M
Share Price: ₦2,808,400M / 16.108B = ₦174.39

Potential Share Price Range
Lower Target: ₦121.62
Upper Target: ₦174.39

Chai,Bovali, the way I they envy your break down analysis ehn...

God bless you, I can't believe you are a lady.

bastardson:
Was using their WEMA, but switched to Zenith recently.

Seems they acknowledge Zenith slower

Zenith Bank network is nothing to write home about.

The worst bank award goes to them.

😘

bovali:
So based of this report, my analysis is as follows:

Acquisition Details
New Ownership: Huaxin Cement (China) is acquiring 83.81% of WAPCO through a major transaction, which may lead to a 100% takeover.
Valuation: Enterprise value estimated at $1.1 - $1.6 billion based on EBITDA multiples and asset valuations.
Future Strategy: Huaxin Cement aims to improve operational performance and achieve targeted returns through integration and enhanced management

Key Inputs
- Outstanding Shares: 16.108 billion shares
- Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1,700 NGN
- Enterprise Value (EV): Range $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion
- Net Debt: $1 million (debt) - $53 million (cash) = $52 million net cash (improves equity value)

Calculation Steps
Equity Value = EV + Net Cash
Equity Value in NGN = Equity Value (USD) × Exchange Rate
Share Price (NGN) = Equity Value in NGN / Outstanding Shares

Calculations
For EV = $1.1 billion:
Equity Value: $1,100M + $52M = $1,152M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,152M × 1,700 = ₦1,958,400M
Share Price: ₦1,958,400M / 16.108B = ₦121.62

For EV = $1.6 billion:
Equity Value: $1,600M + $52M = $1,652M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,652M × 1,700 = ₦2,808,400M
Share Price: ₦2,808,400M / 16.108B = ₦174.39

Potential Share Price Range
Lower Target: ₦121.62
Upper Target: ₦174.39

But wait o, forgive me, I don't too understand book like that. What is the final price being paid exactly, is it not the same $1bn USD because they state 838m is going to holcim based on the 83.81% stake. If $1.1bn is then paid, it means the final consideration for the minority shareholder is $261,87mn which is N169 per share, if it is based on $1.6bn then it is a final consideration of $761.87mn which translates to N491 per share... I think what it looks like is N104 per share based on a total $1bn ($161.87mn for the minority shareholder)

bovali:
So based of this report, my analysis is as follows:

Acquisition Details
New Ownership: Huaxin Cement (China) is acquiring 83.81% of WAPCO through a major transaction, which may lead to a 100% takeover.
Valuation: Enterprise value estimated at $1.1 - $1.6 billion based on EBITDA multiples and asset valuations.
Future Strategy: Huaxin Cement aims to improve operational performance and achieve targeted returns through integration and enhanced management

Key Inputs
- Outstanding Shares: 16.108 billion shares
- Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1,700 NGN
- Enterprise Value (EV): Range $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion
- Net Debt: $1 million (debt) - $53 million (cash) = $52 million net cash (improves equity value)

Calculation Steps
Equity Value = EV + Net Cash
Equity Value in NGN = Equity Value (USD) × Exchange Rate
Share Price (NGN) = Equity Value in NGN / Outstanding Shares

Calculations
For EV = $1.1 billion:
Equity Value: $1,100M + $52M = $1,152M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,152M × 1,700 = ₦1,958,400M
Share Price: ₦1,958,400M / 16.108B = ₦121.62

For EV = $1.6 billion:
Equity Value: $1,600M + $52M = $1,652M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,652M × 1,700 = ₦2,808,400M
Share Price: ₦2,808,400M / 16.108B = ₦174.39

Potential Share Price Range
Lower Target: ₦121.62
Upper Target: ₦174.39

ojeysky:
Ellahlakes closed on green, Hmm...those waiting at sub 3 how far. Me too dey wait sha so I can average down
@Loco is this our championbrew now ripe for championship?

ELLAHLAKES...just wait after the agm.

Some KEY Info:

21 May 2025 (latest) = Notice of EGM
31 August 2025 = Closing Deferral Period
21 September 2025 = Resolution Period

Deal 1. Purchaser A (Hainan Huaxin Pan-Africa Investment Co) is buying 56.04% of Lafarge Nigeria.
Deal 2. Purchaser B (Huaxin (Hong Kong) International Holdings Limited) is buying 27.77% of Lafarge Nigeria.

Deal 1 is the priority...

If Deal 2 falls through by the end of the Resolution Period, it will be included in the MTO

bovali:
Detailed report on the wapco acquisition from the hong kong exchange:
https://en.huaxincem.com/upload/20241201/1ie0scte65oe1o6go.pdf

I laugh at the bolded

Sunrisepebble:
But wait o, forgive me, I don't too understand book like that.

I think you are spot on but i will plan with 104...

Sunrisepebble:
If $1.1bn is then paid, it means the final consideration for the minority shareholder is $261,87mn which is N169 per share... I think what it looks like is N104 per share based on a total $1bn ($161.87mn for the minority shareholder)

bovali:
So based of this report, my analysis is as follows:

Acquisition Details
New Ownership: Huaxin Cement (China) is acquiring 83.81% of WAPCO through a major transaction, which may lead to a 100% takeover.
Valuation: Enterprise value estimated at $1.1 - $1.6 billion based on EBITDA multiples and asset valuations.
Future Strategy: Huaxin Cement aims to improve operational performance and achieve targeted returns through integration and enhanced management

Key Inputs
- Outstanding Shares: 16.108 billion shares
- Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1,700 NGN
- Enterprise Value (EV): Range $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion
- Net Debt: $1 million (debt) - $53 million (cash) = $52 million net cash (improves equity value)

Calculation Steps
Equity Value = EV + Net Cash
Equity Value in NGN = Equity Value (USD) × Exchange Rate
Share Price (NGN) = Equity Value in NGN / Outstanding Shares

Calculations
For EV = $1.1 billion:
Equity Value: $1,100M + $52M = $1,152M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,152M × 1,700 = ₦1,958,400M
Share Price: ₦1,958,400M / 16.108B = ₦121.62

For EV = $1.6 billion:
Equity Value: $1,600M + $52M = $1,652M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,652M × 1,700 = ₦2,808,400M
Share Price: ₦2,808,400M / 16.108B = ₦174.39

Potential Share Price Range
Lower Target: ₦121.62
Upper Target: ₦174.39

Don't be too optimistic.


Debt will increase the Enterprise Value, being cash rich reduce the Enterprise Value.

A low enterprise value due to no debt and being cash rich will give the business a low multiple which will make it attractive in terms of valuation.


Wetin I sabi, I am not a Finance professional

If you average cost price for Lafarge is N30 and below, I think selling at N100 is good enough.


My fair value before the acquisition was N70 getting to sell it at N100 na jara

emmanuelewumi:
If you average cost price for Lafarge is N30 and below, I think selling at N100 is good enough.


My fair value before the acquisition was N70 getting to sell it at N100 na jara

One thing I'm sure of is, wapco cannot rub us like fmn, they must pay the real premium as minority shareholders will drag the price very high, i know they have a plan too but every body has a plan until you get punched in the face said mohammed alli.

We are waiting for their plans..

Assuming full bid till Friday, the price should be 93. I’m very happy taking my small change there and moving onto the next thing

emmanuelewumi:
If you average cost price for Lafarge is N30 and below, I think selling at N100 is good enough.


My fair value before the acquisition was N70 getting to sell it at N100 na jara

crownprince2017:
One thing I'm sure of is, wapco cannot rub us like fmn, they must pay the real premium as minority shareholders will drag the price very high, i know they have a plan too but every body has a plan until you get punched in the face said mohammed alli.

We are waiting for their plans..

We hope so

essentialone:
And then Sunu was at 20 kobo in October 2020. Today closed at N4.25

Except someone that is extremely large or the Directors or long termer or someone that already write it off, who could have just picked and abandon it there, it's not easy for an average person to stay put in a stock at car park for that long......"hoping" it will one day deliver like this.....
It's a risk that's eventually worth it anyway.
Congrats to Megawealth01.

ghm:
Oga, This is not a thread to express political sentiments but to analyse how government policies or lack of it, government actions and inactions affect investments so that we can act and take positions.

For example, in the US and UK where the governments are not clueless, incompetent and useless, the stock markets do experience similar things just like we see it in 9ja.

.
Please you are free to believe this clueless, incompetent government at your own peril. It is your choice.
They say they are for ''free market economy'', whatever that nonsense means to them.
Governments in developing nations are supposed to take deliberate, targeted decisions to intervene in key areas of the economy to achieve desired results for the benefits of citizens and eliminate or reduce poverty.

A government's attitude, pedigree, antecedents, integrity or lack thereof forms part of their policy credibility and policy appraisal.

A president that would announce a major policy decision like subsidy removal on his inauguration day when there was no cabinet in place, no ministers, no industry or stakeholder engagement, etc. to provide some guidance on the procedure or methodology etc.

A government that woke up one day, without any meaningful stakeholder consultation or engagement and devalued the currency from about N650/USD to N1400 /1USD.

A government that promised Labour and gave them assurance that fuel price would not be increased if they accepted N70,000 as minimum wage, but a few days later deceived them and increased fuel price from N600 to N1000.

A govt that woke up on day and imposed astronomical increases in electricity tariff on citizens without any consultation etc.

A government that woke up one day, without any citizen engagement and changed the national anthem as if it is the personal copyright of the president.

This government takes bizarre actions before it seeks for advice or informed opinion. Such a government cannot be trusted on anything. You are free to trust them though, if they catch your fancy.

Tinubu's government is the worst government in this Republic! You can believe the lies that the CBN and Fin Minister tell you

essentialone:
And then Sunu was at 20 kobo in October 2020. Today closed at N4.25

It didn't move from kobo to #4.25 oooooo. It moved from #1 to #4.25

mikeapollo:
That is what could possibly qualify as positive ''news'' for Oando for now, apart from possibly releasing a good result for Q3 2024.
Abi the foreign Refinery don click?

Never say never when it comes to stock news generally......
Is anyone expecting the stunts WAPCO is currently pulling?
So if we don't know yet, then it's wrong to say it's only result or bonus issue.
Just my humble opinion.

💯

yMcy56:
Never say never when it comes to stock news generally......
Is anyone expecting the stunts WAPCO is currently pulling?
So if we don't know yet, then it's wrong to say it's only result or bonus issue.
Just my humble opinion.

yMcy56:
Never say never when it comes to stock news generally......
Is anyone expecting the stunts WAPCO is currently pulling?
So if we don't know yet, then it's wrong to say it's only result or bonus issue.
Just my humble opinion.

My opinion is humbled by your humble opinion!

The Oando insiders should come and give us details.
I always try my best to give full details when I can

yMcy56:
Never say never when it comes to stock news generally......
Is anyone expecting the stunts WAPCO is currently pulling?
So if we don't know yet, then it's wrong to say it's only result or bonus issue.
Just my humble opinion.