₦airaland Forum

HesInMe:
It is almost surprising, although somewhat understandable, how little people understand the impact of FX policy and devaluation. Oya, adjust your portfolio and its 1000% gains for currency devaluation, i.e., quote it in US dollars. Then compare with someone who kept their money in dollars and earned the average 25% gain of the S&P 500 index.

Result: You are a lot poorer than you know. But continue suffering and smiling.

HesInMe:
It is almost surprising, although somewhat understandable, how little people understand the impact of FX policy and devaluation. Oya, adjust your portfolio and its 1000% gains for currency devaluation, i.e., quote it in US dollars. Then compare with someone who kept their money in dollars and earned the average 25% gain of the S&P 500 index.

Result: You are a lot poorer than you know. But continue suffering and smiling.

thebargainhunte:
Without considering devaluation of our currency, how much were all these companies that returned 300% to 1200% some years back? Do you know the price of wapco and oando some years back?

bastardson:
Can those who are here to Lament just move to the political section ?

Streetinvestor2:
Why use oando in the calculations. Oando has bad management issues. Use wapco for your calculation and don't forget to add the dividends

thebargainhunte:
Your wapco got all time high in June, 2014 @ a price of #136.73 .Using exchange rate of #170 per dollar, your wapco then worths $ 0.804 per share. For wapco to worth the same now, it has to trade at #1367 per share using exchange rate of #1700 per dollar. Even with your dividends, you still lost.

thebargainhunte:
Your wapco got all time high in June, 2014 @ a price of #136.73 .Using exchange rate of #170 per dollar, your wapco then worths $ 0.804 per share. For wapco to worth the same now, it has to trade at #1367 per share using exchange rate of #1700 per dollar. Even with your dividends, you still lost.

Streetinvestor2:
Why use oando in the calculations. Oando has bad management issues. Use wapco for your calculation and don't forget to add the dividends

thebargainhunte:
Your wapco got all time high in June, 2014 @ a price of #136.73 .Using exchange rate of #170 per dollar, your wapco then worths $ 0.804 per share. For wapco to worth the same now, it has to trade at #1367 per share using exchange rate of #1700 per dollar. Even with your dividends, you still lost.

thebargainhunte:
Your wapco got all time high in June, 2014 @ a price of #136.73 .Using exchange rate of #170 per dollar, your wapco then worths $ 0.804 per share. For wapco to worth the same now, it has to trade at #1367 per share using exchange rate of #1700 per dollar. Even with your dividends, you still lost.

emmanuelewumi:
Price history of Lafarge in 2014.

The same Lafarge moved from N8.00 in 2006 to to over N130 within 8 years.

Started going down due to high debt incurred when they bought an overpriced cement company in South Africa.

Reason why it is important to monitor the financial health of the companies you invest in and also rebalance your portfolios

mikeapollo:
Did you buy into the Lafarge Nigeria or SA? Was the Lafarge in SA a subsidiary of Lafarge Nigeria?
I know they both belong to the same Lafarge Group.
Just wondering how the SA investment affected the Nigeria operations so much to the point of starting to go down as a result of high debts in the SA investment

thebargainhunte:
Your wapco got all time high in June, 2014 @ a price of #136.73 .Using exchange rate of #170 per dollar, your wapco then worths $ 0.804 per share. For wapco to worth the same now, it has to trade at #1367 per share using exchange rate of #1700 per dollar. Even with your dividends, you still lost.

GeeKudi:
At best, you are only going to get a prophetic declaration - "they will chase iit and shall not find it".

I advise you to just believe it for "he who believes the prophet shall reap the benefit of the prophet".
Na so we see am.

ololufemi:
We can't deny that there are a lot of inside deals that go on within the stock market and those who have information usually reap bountifully from it.

I still remember when the information leaked that Starcomms was going bust because the CDMA technology couldn't survive th3 changes coming to the GSM arena which made some people to get out at around NGN9 to NGN10. Unfortunately, many who didn't have such information waited till the company went to sub NGN5 levels from NGN13 before totally vanished off the face of the NSE.

Another one prior to the Starcomms scenario was the merger of Stanbic Bank with IBTC Chartered Bank and Regent Bank. I remember the information being out there for people to withhold their shares and not sell at the tender offer price of NGN16. The advice was to wait till the tender offer period was over and concluded because Standard Bank Holding had a minimum they wanted to purchase and would want to buy more shares on the floor of the NSE (as it was called then).

This drove the price to slightly above NGN21 per unit before the global financial crisis hit the nation much later. During that global financial crisis period, the share price crashed to about NGN4.00 and some peeps jokingly shared some information that Standard Bank Holding has no choice but to continue to buy those shares with the proceeds of their dividends from the business especially the pension arm.

In all of these those who shared the information always spoke in parables and jokes to prevent their identity being revealed because you do not know who is who online and offline. I am sure the same applies to our brothers, the Prophet and Sunrisepebble.

Many thanks to them for always sharing their info from their intels.

emmanuelewumi:
Lafarge Africa bought a cement company in South Africa when Bolaji Balogun was the chairman of the company, the business was later sold at loss in order to reduce Lafarge debt.

Streetinvestor2:
Oga if I have stocks/portfolio that I bought since balablu entered and it has delivered 1000% return not 100%.It will beat all that thing you mentioned weather devaluation/inflation or your 25% gain in dollars. What is the percentage of the devaluation/inflation. What are you saying 1000% return. Which kind yeye devaluation/inflation

HesInMe:
Sorry, it's the gods of Nairaland that won't let me edit my comment once posted. I meant to use the 300% that the other guy quoted. 1000% is a highly unusual performance for a diversified portfolio.

Say we both started with the equivalent of $1000 at the beginning of 2021.

If you invested in US market:
You start with $1000
Grow portfolio 52% (average gain in S&P500 since 2021), so you'd have $1520 at the end of year.

If you invested in NSE All-Share:
You start with $250 due to devaluation. The naira has devalued 75+% since 2021.

Grow portfolio 300% (average gain is ~100% since 2021), so you end with $750. You're $770 poorer.

To break even (make the same money as US investor), you need to have at least 400% return. How many people have that on a portfolio level? Getting lucky with Oando etc. doesn't count.

HesInMe:
Sorry, it's the gods of Nairaland that won't let me edit my comment once posted. I meant to use the 300% that the other guy quoted. 1000% is a highly unusual performance for a diversified portfolio.

Say we both started with the equivalent of $1000 at the beginning of 2021.

If you invested in US market:
You start with $1000
Grow portfolio 52% (average gain in S&P500 since 2021), so you'd have $1520 at the end of year.

If you invested in NSE All-Share:
You start with $250 due to devaluation. The naira has devalued 75+% since 2021.

Grow portfolio 300% (average gain is ~100% since 2021), so you end with $750. You're $770 poorer.

To break even (make the same money as US investor), you need to have at least 400% return. How many people have that on a portfolio level? Getting lucky with Oando etc. doesn't count.

HesInMe:
Sorry, it's the gods of Nairaland that won't let me edit my comment once posted. I meant to use the 300% that the other guy quoted. 1000% is a highly unusual performance for a diversified portfolio.

Say we both started with the equivalent of $1000 at the beginning of 2021.

If you invested in US market:
You start with $1000
Grow portfolio 52% (average gain in S&P500 since 2021), so you'd have $1520 at the end of year.

If you invested in NSE All-Share:
You start with $250 due to devaluation. The naira has devalued 75+% since 2021.

Grow portfolio 300% (average gain is ~100% since 2021), so you end with $750. You're $770 poorer.

To break even (make the same money as US investor), you need to have at least 400% return. How many people have that on a portfolio level? Getting lucky with Oando etc. doesn't count.

bastardson:
The best time to invest in NSE or in Nigeria is now.

I personally don’t see things getting worse, infact I feel that those investing now would make massive rewards.

I am invested in both NASDAQ and here, though sold 50% of my portfolio in NASDAQ last week, as the speed at which everything was bulling is scary,

I feel there might be a massive crash soon.

NSE and Nigerian Economy is poised for a massive bull run and also improved GDP

bastardson:
The best time to invest in NSE or in Nigeria is now.

I personally don’t see things getting worse, infact I feel that those investing now would make massive rewards.

I am invested in both NASDAQ and here, though sold 50% of my portfolio in NASDAQ last week, as the speed at which everything was bulling is scary,

I feel there might be a massive crash soon.

NSE and Nigerian Economy is poised for a massive bull run and also improved GDP

ololufemi:
We can't deny that there are a lot of inside deals that go on within the stock market and those who have information usually reap bountifully from it.

I still remember when the information leaked that Starcomms was going bust because the CDMA technology couldn't survive th3 changes coming to the GSM arena which made some people to get out at around NGN9 to NGN10. Unfortunately, many who didn't have such information waited till the company went to sub NGN5 levels from NGN13 before totally vanished off the face of the NSE.

Another one prior to the Starcomms scenario was the merger of Stanbic Bank with IBTC Chartered Bank and Regent Bank. I remember the information being out there for people to withhold their shares and not sell at the tender offer price of NGN16. The advice was to wait till the tender offer period was over and concluded because Standard Bank Holding had a minimum they wanted to purchase and would want to buy more shares on the floor of the NSE (as it was called then).

This drove the price to slightly above NGN21 per unit before the global financial crisis hit the nation much later. During that global financial crisis period, the share price crashed to about NGN4.00 and some peeps jokingly shared some information that Standard Bank Holding has no choice but to continue to buy those shares with the proceeds of their dividends from the business especially the pension arm.

In all of these those who shared the information always spoke in parables and jokes to prevent their identity being revealed because you do not know who is who online and offline. I am sure the same applies to our brothers, the Prophet and Sunrisepebble.

Many thanks to them for always sharing their info from their intels.

Agbalowomeri:
NSE has eroded value in the long run. One must always hedge after every loot.

We were buying right offers and IPO of FUGAS at ca. N35 about 17 years ago. We are still buying same at similar price in naira even though that is like a tenth of what it was worth at that time

ghm:
You are right but if we think out of the box, it may occur to us that it is not the same with everybody, situations may differ.
E.g. someone I know:
1. Brought in $10K into the country
2. Changed it at N1,500 to $1, that's N15m.
3. bought 50,000,000 units of Veritascap at N0.30K around 1/11/2023
4. Sold at N1.30 on 11/7/2024 for guess how much - N65m
5. Change 65M back to USD at 1700 that's a whopping $38K - over 20K on top of 10K.

This is real not an hypothetical story.

It is not recommeneded for anyone, DYOR, you are the CEO of your portfolio..

vacanci:
On the day you bought veritas capital at N0.30k, it traded N0.20k through out the month and next.

On the day you claimed to sell 50m units of Veritas, the total volume for that day was 7.05M units.

The records are there on the NGX for anyone to verify, so take am easy

megawealth01:
OANDO