₦airaland Forum

HesInMe:
Tell them o. They think they are all Nostradamus because they got lucky with one or two outstanding investments.

We did not get lucky. The quater results of those companies whr released for DD.We don't have to follow your so called dollar investment. I personally will not try it.I am very ok with my nse investment because of my yrs in it.I will only invest in what I understand and feel safe about it.I sold the dollars I had in dom account btw 1450/1500 and invested on nse.And is good decision. The dollar was bought long ago plus many yrs of gdr from gtbank. The only money I am ready to convert naira to now is if I am converting to biafran currency..lol.
I pay my bills in naira. I will only try to make mega naira. And those who spend in dollars should strife to make mega dollars.
And if you see it as lucky no wahala. You also got lucky in what other investment options you took.

ositadima1:
There’s no way you could have predicted how well OKOMUOIL would perform 10 years ago, given the many stocks available at the time—any one of them could have been chosen. In your portfolio, some stocks underperformed while others did very well. If you could see the future, would you have invested in the underperforming stocks back then? Selecting OKOMUOIL for this comparison, rather than Nigerian Breweries, reflects the bias of using today’s information to judge yesterday’s decisions. As for the dollar, there are no alternative options—you either invest or you don’t.

A better measure will be using an index as the proxy variable
Comparative analysis of the returns of maybe a sectoral index, or NGX30 or even the ASI and the devaluation of the NGN
Something like that

rmx:
It’s obvious People know very little , some have even gone as far as saying the value of dollars or other fx relative to the naira does not matter , since we spend naira yet Prices of everything is galloping due to the same devaluation and inflation caused by high fx rate , a lot of companies we follow reference impact of fx and dollars in there reports and operations , it’s not by agidi or strong head o , people will learn

I don't think anyone is arguing about the negative impact of devaluation on cost of living, stocks and share investments, prices of goods and services. What I see as the issue is that those who are pushing it are doing it in a very narrow-minded, straight-jacketed, textbook/theoretical way. They closed their minds to other possibilities that can make one take advantage of the situation. Savvy persons will not fold his/her hands and watch these policies ruin them but take advantage of the situation instead of lamenting and cursing the policy makers.

To shed more light so that it will not just be hypothetical talk, here are some of the ways people managed these situations:

1. Borrow in Naira and convert to forex. My eyes opened when a friend borrowed N50m and converted to USD @ N360 to $1; he is still paying the loan in NGN while the rate has fallen as low as N1700 to $1. Some did the same with UCAP mutual funds, etc. Some people change part of the income to forex monthly, etc. Someone quoted Eco 101 earlier, but we learn different things differently in each situation, I learnt in Eco 101 that borrowers gain during inflation.

2. Diversify into forex denominated investments instead of having 100% in NGN shares. Do Eurobonds, dollar funds, global stocks with Chaka, Bamboo, Trove etc. In fact, a sister/similar thread was even opened for that as far back as 2020 - https://www.nairaland.com/5669161/us-stocks-pick-alert

3. Reduce the tenure of your investments in NGN stocks. Take profit regularly, trade for earnings, news, do JIJO etc. That is why we pick these days, no lifetime loyalty to any stock any more. We go for stocks with asymmetrical returns, steady dividend, astronomical growth etc.

4. Keep no savings in devalued currency, in fact, have only what you will spend in NGN.

Let me stop here.

ghm:
I don't think anyone is arguing about the negative impact of devaluation on cost of living, stocks and share investments, prices of goods and services. What I see as the issue is that those who are pushing it are doing it in a very narrow-minded, straight-jacketed, textbook/theoretical way. They closed their minds to other possibilities that can make one take advantage of the situation. Savvy persons will not fold his/her hands and watch these policies ruin them but take advantage of the situation instead of lamenting and cursing the policy makers.

To shed more light so that it will not just be hypothetical talk, here are some of the ways people managed these situations:

1. Borrow in Naira and convert to forex. My eyes opened when a friend borrowed N50m and converted to USD @ N360 to $1; he is still paying the loan in NGN while the rate has fallen as low as N1700 to $1. Some did the same with UCAP mutual funds, etc. Some people change part of the income to forex monthly, etc.

2. Diversify into forex denominated investments instead of having 100% in NGN shares. Do Eurobonds, dollar funds, global stocks with Chaka, Bamboo, Trove etc. In fact, a sister/similar thread was even opened for that as far back as 2020 - https://www.nairaland.com/5669161/us-stocks-pick-alert

3. Reduce the tenure of your investments in NGN stocks. Take profit regularly, trade for earnings, news, do JIJO etc. That is why we pick these days, no lifetime loyalty to any stock any more. We go for stocks with asymmetrical returns, steady dividend, astronomical growth etc.

Let me stop here.

That point 1 is suicidal if JAGABAN gets things right economically

megawealth01:
That point 1 is suicidal if JAGABAN gets things right economically

You must be dynamic too, you watch, DYOR and take action.

ghm:
You must be dynamic too, you watch, DYOR and take action.

The day dollar will fall eh. I just hope people buying dollars to hoard won't regret it sha?

megawealth01:
The day dollar will fall eh. I just hope people buying dollars to hoard won't regret it sha?

True, everything is risky.

The stocks we are buying also, we buy thinking it will appreciate but it can go south too. That is why we always emphasise that everyone should have strategies tailored to one's risk appetite, situation, stage in life, purpose of investment and above all, DYOR.

ghm:
I don't think anyone is arguing about the negative impact of devaluation on cost of living, stocks and share investments, prices of goods and services. What I see as the issue is that those who are pushing it are doing it in a very narrow-minded, straight-jacketed, textbook/theoretical way. They closed their minds to other possibilities that can make one take advantage of the situation. Savvy persons will not fold his/her hands and watch these policies ruin them but take advantage of the situation instead of lamenting and cursing the policy makers.

To shed more light so that it will not just be hypothetical talk, here are some of the ways people managed these situations:

1. Borrow in Naira and convert to forex. My eyes opened when a friend borrowed N50m and converted to USD @ N360 to $1; he is still paying the loan in NGN while the rate has fallen as low as N1700 to $1. Some did the same with UCAP mutual funds, etc. Some people change part of the income to forex monthly, etc. Someone quoted Eco 101 earlier, but we learn different things differently in each situation, I learnt in Eco 101 that borrowers gain during inflation.

2. Diversify into forex denominated investments instead of having 100% in NGN shares. Do Eurobonds, dollar funds, global stocks with Chaka, Bamboo, Trove etc. In fact, a sister/similar thread was even opened for that as far back as 2020 - https://www.nairaland.com/5669161/us-stocks-pick-alert

3. Reduce the tenure of your investments in NGN stocks. Take profit regularly, trade for earnings, news, do JIJO etc. That is why we pick these days, no lifetime loyalty to any stock any more. We go for stocks with asymmetrical returns, steady dividend, astronomical growth etc.

4. Keep no savings in devalued currency, in fact, have only what you will spend in NGN.

Let me stop here.

Fair enough , just have different assets class and be diversified . Cant be in fcy in all your positions , not possible , we still make most of this money in naira now

I personally think we are the bottom or close to , and we should have some stability soon with the naira at least for sometime or within a stable band , we have hoped for this so often sha time will tell

Done some of the above and more , if you do business keeping stocks of goods could be as good as fcy , most traders convert cash to goods quickly now , crypto is there ,foreign stocks , eurobonds , fcy fixed deposit , real estate both local and foreign etc even local nse stocks can still help your ministry if you get it right , depends on your risk appetite and funds available

Your friend must have borrowed around 2018/19 to early 2020 , the battle against inflation and devaluation is unending , you must just be aware and try to diversify

megawealth01:
The day dollar will fall eh. I just hope people buying dollars to hoard won't regret it sha?

Possible , don’t even think it’s wise buying dollar to keep , must be for investment now , dollar itself dey loose value

But all this applies to people that bought recently , how to do you panic a man that bought his holdings at 360 or even 200 . The game is the game

rmx:
Possible , don’t even think it’s wise buying dollar to keep , must be for investment now , dollar itself dey loose value

But all this applies to people that bought recently , how to do you panic a man that bought his holdings at 360 or even 200 . The game is the game

The game is the game

HesInMe:
It is almost surprising, although somewhat understandable, how little people understand the impact of FX policy and devaluation. Oya, adjust your portfolio and its 1000% gains for currency devaluation, i.e., quote it in US dollars. Then compare with someone who kept their money in dollars and earned the average 25% gain of the S&P 500 index.

Result: You are a lot poorer than you know. But continue suffering and smiling.

Is the 25% per annum bro? Just curious

Raider76:
N18bn off market cross deal on FBNH. I am watching FBNH. I think it may catch GTCO in price.

Why do you think so?

Streetinvestor2:
They will since we a dealing with chinko guys.They will pay high premium once it has to do with naija because they know they will hammer. When they arrive I expect them to try buying alhaji too.Naija is a gold mine to that country. Do you know how it has pained them that our government refused importation of cement from China all this yr

Kai! Some people just like to talk. You think the Chinks don't know the value of money, and they will just spray it around? Did they pay Holcin the $1bn they asked for?

Holcin made a strategic decision to sell their African cement operations, so Alhaji will also just see money, without any strategic thinking, and decide to sell his core company?

I think people should be careful not to buy Wapco at a ridiculous price and end up losing bad. Because it didn't say the Chinks will trigger the MTO immediately. They can hold for sometime and bring the price down.

Raider76:
Kai! Some people just like to talk. You think the Chinks don't know the value of money, and they will just spray it around? Did they pay Holcin the $1bn they asked for?

Holcin made a strategic decision to sell their African cement operations, so Alhaji will also just see money, without any strategic thinking, and decide to sell his core company?

I think people should be careful not to buy Wapco at a ridiculous price and end up losing bad. Because it didn't say the Chinks will trigger the MTO immediately. They can hold for sometime and bring the price down.

Honestly, it is beginning to look like another DS/NS analysis- paralysis. That was how #150 valuation was flying around till it humbled everybody.

That’s another reason why I’m packing my bags if we can see past 100 next week. Anything can happen between now and May 2025. Get your liquidity while you can, make the 10%+ elsewhere

Xidget:
Honestly, it is beginning to look like another DS/NS analysis- paralysis. That was how #150 valuation was flying around till it humbled everybody.

Xidget:
Honestly, it is beginning to look like another DS/NS analysis- paralysis. That was how #150 valuation was flying around till it humbled everybody.

Ds/Ds is different from this case, merger is different from acquisition. Flourmill could have been a good comparison but people make comparison to sooth their narratives.

Who has lost based on flourmill analysis here, none..

Everyone must know what they are doing in the market, some people intention is to create panic so that they can buy cheap n sell high.

If you don't agree with street, you can sell and move on n let others wish in Peace.

Someone raised the point of this earlier I.e bringing the price down but does it really make any sense and doesn’t it break some kind of regulation? They’ll acquire majority shares and then start selling in the market to crash the price to then buy it back again? It doesn’t seem ethical

Raider76:
Kai! Some people just like to talk. You think the Chinks don't know the value of money, and they will just spray it around? Did they pay Holcin the $1bn they asked for?

Holcin made a strategic decision to sell their African cement operations, so Alhaji will also just see money, without any strategic thinking, and decide to sell his core company?

I think people should be careful not to buy Wapco at a ridiculous price and end up losing bad. Because it didn't say the Chinks will trigger the MTO immediately. They can hold for sometime and bring the price down.

crownprince2017:
Ds/Ds is different from this case, merger is different from acquisition. Flourmill could have been a good comparison but people make comparison to sooth their narratives.

Who has lost based on flourmill analysis here, none..

Everyone must know what they are doing in the market, some people intention is to create panic so that they can buy cheap n sell high.

If you don't agree with street, you can sell and move on n let others wish in Peace.

Flourmill is not a better comparison considering the timeline. Btw now and May 2025 is a lot of time.

At the bolded, you guys are always quick to pullout this card, anytime someone calls for caution. All the best

Everybody has a Plan until they get punched in the face, those millions bids we see since Monday don't know what they are doing ba?, you think trying to crash the price will not come at a price n no risk involved. We watch in 50D.

Xidget:
Honestly, it is beginning to look like another DS/NS analysis- paralysis. That was how #150 valuation was flying around till it humbled everybody.

On DS/NS, the major difference is that it never materialised. So the Valuation was never tested for confirmation.

It would have been a humbling case if it merged and it didn't get to ₦150.

The fact that sentiments alone pushed it to almost ₦80 shows that ₦150 was as close as possible.

Besides the Valuation flying around then was more of ₦100 than ₦150.

Xidget:
Flourmill is not a better comparison considering the timeline. Btw now and May 2025 is a lot of time.

At the bolded, you guys are always quick to pullout this card, anytime someone calls for caution. All the best

So timeline is your basis of comparing Ds/Ds with wapco situation now?
You guys will never seize to amaze people like me.

But merger and acquisition are now the same.

Wealth are being transferred on a daily basis on ngx, you can do the needful sir.

crownprince2017:
So timeline is your basis of comparing Ds/Ds with wapco situation now?
You guys will never seize to amaze people like me.

But merger and acquisition are now the same.

Wealth are being transferred on a daily basis on ngx, you can do the needful sir.

I will rather not engage you any further. You are already coming with a warped mindset of "they want to create panic".
I wonder how people believe that this thread can change the direction of the market. Lol

Sunrisepebble:
Someone raised the point of this earlier I.e bringing the price down but does it really make any sense and doesn’t it break some kind of regulation? They’ll acquire majority shares and then start selling in the market to crash the price to then buy it back again? It doesn’t seem ethical

The Chinks don't have to sell to bring the price down. Immediately people see that the MTO is not imminent they will start damping. And don't forget the weaknesses of our Shareholder Associations.

chimex38:
On DS/NS, the major difference is that it never materialised. So the Valuation was never tested for confirmation.

It would have been a humbling case if it merged and it didn't get to ₦150.

The fact that sentiments alone pushed it to almost ₦80 shows that ₦150 was as close as possible.

Besides the Valuation flying around then was more of ₦100 than ₦150.

Well the point I was trying to make it that people bought higher (#80+) into the excitement, and then the merger lingered and price dropped to below #50 even before the suspension. That was the reference I was trying to make.

Xidget:
Well the point I was trying to make it that people bought higher (#80+) into the excitement, and then the merger lingered and price dropped to below #50 even before the suspension. That was the reference I was trying to make.

OK.. I get you..

I wondered how people think may is long that the price can come down but never think that it's long enough to change the valuation of that company positively based on the reports that will be released by the company between now n May.

I think I never insult anyone in my post n I will advise you not to insult me to avoid brouhaha.
I got the skill too but I just don't fill it's necessary in an educating forum like this. Let us all act maturely.

Raider76:
The Chinks don't have to sell to bring the price down. Immediately people see that the MTO is not imminent they will start damping. And don't forget the weaknesses of our Shareholder Associations.

True anyway..

Sunrisepebble:
Someone raised the point of this earlier I.e bringing the price down but does it really make any sense and doesn’t it break some kind of regulation? They’ll acquire majority shares and then start selling in the market to crash the price to then buy it back again? It doesn’t seem ethical

It's very possible

Choiceguy:
Mpeace and zendi your long awaited FCMB q3 result is here

Good but, bear with them, no interim thing for Mpeace and others.
Fcmb is wrestling with regulatory recapitalization like others. But I hope it can now summon the courage to narrow the price gap with Fidelity.

Raider76:
Kai! Some people just like to talk. You think the Chinks don't know the value of money, and they will just spray it around? Did they pay Holcin the $1bn they asked for?

Holcin made a strategic decision to sell their African cement operations, so Alhaji will also just see money, without any strategic thinking, and decide to sell his core company?

I think people should be careful not to buy Wapco at a ridiculous price and end up losing bad. Because it didn't say the Chinks will trigger the MTO immediately. They can hold for sometime and bring the price down.

Some people like to talk.Some people should learn to ignore. I didn't ask anyone to buy wapco now.I did that long ago.I have voiced my opinion. You make your own and move on.Or what makes your opinion fact or superior

Xidget:
Honestly, it is beginning to look like another DS/NS analysis- paralysis. That was how #150 valuation was flying around till it humbled everybody.

Everyone will be alright las las

Streetinvestor2:
Some people like to talk.Some people should learn to ignore. I didn't ask anyone to buy wapco now.I did that long ago.I have voiced my opinion. You make your own and move on.Or what makes your opinion fact or superior

Ignored!