₦airaland Forum

2025 year Big fish searching..... activated

May God help us

currentprice:
2025 year Big fish searching..... activated

May God help us

_{^{back to my hole}}

Watin FA do you.You call use to be based on FA.why haven't you made any of recent based on FA.Infact you introduce oxygen into FA.
Please make one or two based on FA make we see

Streetinvestor2:
Watin FA do you.You call use to be based on FA.why haven't you made any of recent based on FA.Infact you introduce oxygen into FA.
Please make one or two based on FA make we see

Lol... bear in mind before I talk about stock TA. I have first consider the TA. oxygen & co

why do you think I talk about nascon not DS...check their FA

to me, TA is for good entry and exit level . how did I predicted DS good support level should be around 32/33? how did I predicted the stock that it has enter a level of no return when it was falling..... when pple rushing in above 40 plus

it not 100% but provides good guide ^{point & kill stuff}

currentprice:
hope UACN , Mansard is behaving well

Nascon nko? base on TA...I call for the bottom of this stock few weeks ago and it looking like it stop falling... welldone for those enter @ 29

looking at the chart (TA) again, it appears forming good shape to fly.

Take note

Thank you for this call. I equal got few units at #29 based on u call. What will be the likely resistance level, based on TA

DD is on me

currentprice:
@ ndept , Geekudi & co how mkt ?

hope uacn behaving well

bedsheet has indicated that uacn is better than unilever, cadbury & co in that sector so when unilever do that gra gra few days ago uacn holders should be happy because it a stock that will do better than all in dt industries,

patience pay

Please CurrentPrice what's your fair value on Cadbury. I have over 5m units at stake. Thanks

HesInMe:
It was meant figuratively. (There's a saying, 'If you put lipstick on a pig, it's still a pig.') I have nothing against Chams personally, and I think I've been balanced in my comments on the stock.

But their numbers don't lie. It's a 20% gross margin business. If you walk out of your house, you'll pass by many businesses with better fundamentals. Tech companies traditionally have margins exceeding 40% (hardware) or 80% (software).

And it's not Moniepoint.

Some red and yellow flags, always better to compare with what is obtainable in the industry

emmaodet:
You are right with the valuation of 80-90 though i don't see them struggling with energy cost because operating expenses only rose by 3.8% between 9M/2024 and 9M/2023 while revenue grew by 76% during those periods.

my concern is their account receivable rising alot which means buyers are owing them more and inventory rising alot too - Both of these means product is struggling to move in the market thereby having more in store and buyers struggling to sell the ones they have so as to pay back their debts.
We can confirm this looking at their - Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) which is the number o days it takes the company to convert inventory to cashflow.
CCC = DIO (time to sell your products) + DSO ( time to collect money from customers) - DPO (time to pay your bills)
CCC = 91 +124 - 67 = 148 days ( we want less than 30 days, though we will compare with their peers in the same sector)
It takes 91 days for betaglass to sell their products, 124 days to collect the money and 67 days to pay contractors/suppliers of of raw materials.
With this, we can see betaglass is under pressure to pay their own bills (67 days) compared to the days it takes them to produce and get back their money (215 days)
Let's look back at betaglass CCC 5 years history to see if they are improving or not -

DIO ( 2020 - 2024 LTM) = 130 - 109 - 78 - 96 -91 -So as we can see, this number is improving. Taking betaglass 3 months to sell their products compared to previous 4 months plus. We want less than 30 days though.
DSO (2020 - 2024 LTM) = 85 - 68 - 75 - 74 - 124 - It takes 4 months to get back their money from buyers compare to 3 months previous. This number is getting bad. We want less than 30 days
DPO (2020 - 2024 LTM) - 98 - 83 - 67 - 74 - 67 - This number is reducing from 3 months to 2 months for betaglass to pay back contractors. It is not good. We want 90+

They are struggling to find cullet bottles to help their Energy mix, so their Energy mix is deteriorating and they can't control it.
Look at the growth in Cost per tonne of its production process and compare that to Revenue per tonne growth, the number is off.
If you look at the cost to know why it is growing faster than revenue, you will see that the energy cost has increased by 3x, while the raw material cost has increased by 2x or less.
They operate an energy-intensive business, and with the energy cost out of their control, it turns me off.

But that's not everything I don't like about the business. Look at their FCF/share, it was negative 3 out of 5 times in the last 5 years because of CapEx.
I usually don't like capital-intensive businesses. Being a Capital Intensive business (Their Furnance would always need heavy repairs or replacement), I can't bet on a consistent positive FCF/share in the Future. When I add that to their compounded earnings growth in the last 5 years, it looks poor for a good capital appreciation for my money.

eziokwunwoko:
Good evening Sir Bullbearmkt. Please what is TA of Guinea Insurance saying. Please reply me. I want to know when to buy.

Guinea Insurance is one of the great insurance stocks that ended 2024 very well, closing at 0.80. Personally, I would rather wait for price to decline into the next support area between 0.68 - 0.76. However, you may also target its 2024 closing price.

ALSO NOTE THAT THERE IS POSSIBILITY FOR PRICE TO CONTINUE TO RISE FROM CURRENT PRICE

NettyNelly:
They are struggling to find cullet bottles to help their Energy mix, so their Energy mix is deteriorating and they can't control it.
Look at the growth in Cost per tonne of its production process and compare that to Revenue per tonne growth, the number is off.
If you look at the cost to know why it is growing faster than revenue, you will see that the energy cost has increased by 3x, while the raw material cost has increased by 2x or less.
They operate an energy-intensive business, and with the energy cost out of their control, it turns me off.

But that's not everything I don't like about the business. Look at their FCF/share, it was negative 3 out of 5 times in the last 5 years because of CapEx.
I usually don't like capital-intensive businesses. Being a Capital Intensive business (Their Furnance would always need heavy repairs or replacement), I can't bet on a consistent positive FCF/share in the Future. When I add that to their compounded earnings growth in the last 5 years, it looks poor for a good capital appreciation for my money.

Brilliant submission.

Used to have the stock which I bought in the past for N10 but had to sell it late last year.

It is good to do indepth fundamental analysis to avoid value trap

Streetinvestor2:
Why don't you tell us what is wrong

I really dont know TBH and i am on the low level of the ladder of knowledge in stocks. I want the thought leaders to share their perspectives on Sunu recent status if they dont mind.

Wale don make plans from today sha... OANDO eh

DYOR

emmanuelewumi:
Brilliant submission.

Used to have the stock which I bought in the past for N10 but had to sell it late last year.

It is good to do indepth fundamental analysis to avoid value trap

💯

The discontinuation of the buy out by Ocean and Oil was expressly and loudly stated and repeated more than once at the AGM. You may want to the see the youtube replay.

Streetinvestor2:
What is nice.wale is just a fraudulent person. He did not respond to important things thr.why didn't he say all this time they have received a letter for the discontinuation of the buy out.
Why is oando spending over 7B allegedly to organise party for a different company...OODP

megamart247:
Please CurrentPrice what's your fair value on Cadbury. I have over 5m units at stake. Thanks

bro. Cadbury recent result lack oxygen with some negative numbers. am afraid no motivation to run it on my bedsheet. this does not mean it will not move up. for now I see cadbury price movement will base on others stock performance in the same sector.

bastardson:
No one is saying anything about Ellah Lakes.. All so quiet about it.

Valuation of your Ellah Lakes -
Many stock traders and even short/medium term investors mostly shy away from stocks like ellah lakes because it is hard to value or measure due to little or no revenue and profit but the good news is that anything and EVERYTHING has value and can be measured.....ANYTHING .. from accidental cars, scraps, rags, feaces / human waste....anything, just anything.
Ellah Lakes falls into stage 1 or 2 of corporate/business cycle and the characteristics are - little or no revenue, no gross profit down to negative or expanding operation loss and loss after tax plus expanding/diluting outstanding shares.
This is the terrain of Venture Capitalist and not traders or investors until it starts declaring revenue and profit.
So how do we value a non-profitable company/stock? or a stock not generating income? One out of the best valuation tools in our valuation box that fits this class of stock is TAM - Total Addressable Market
According to the picture attached below, Ellah Lakes management goal and objective is to capture 20% of nigeria government annual import bill of $10b 20% of which is $2b through palm oil plantation and processing, maize, soyabeans, cassava and rice
See ellah lakes as a business introduced to you by a friend to run together and won't generate income for some years before becoming profitable - first 1 - 5 years will be burning money on wages, building, planting etc without any income coming in, so it is an investment for mostly people with patient fund or reserved funds while they use bult of their money to do other things or investment.
Future market Cap of Ellah Lakes = TAM x Estimated Market share x Estimated Profit Margin x Estimated Future P/E
TAM = $10b annual nigeria goverment import bill
Estimated market share = while Ellah Lakes manage says they can achieve 20% of TAM which is $2b, i think they can only achieve 5% of TAM = $500m
Est. PM = using Presco (40) and Okomu (24) as reference, i will keep my PM low to 15
Future P/E = Okomu (15.5), Presco (8.4), avg. NGX ASI (10) as reference, i will pick 10
So
(a) Future Mkt Cap = $10b x 5% x15% x 10 = $750m and this is under normal condition (100% base Market Cap)
Assuming we are wrong with our calculations and then we have a bear market 50% of market cap
Then
(b) Future Market Cap (50% bear) = $5b x 2.5% x 7.5% x 5 = $50m
If we experience a bull market of 50% more market cap,
Then
(c) Future market Cap (150% bull) = $15b x 7.5% x 22.5% x 15 = $3.8b

To be continued to avoid long write-up

How?

Meerahbel:
Please can you share a softcopy.

Bagwa:
Oando responded

This response from Oando does not answer the question about how much was paid to the musicians (Wizkid, Davido, Burna, etc) for the so called Xmas party.
I wish the lawyers can resubmit another letter asking for specific response to the party expenses.
For me, the positives in Oando's response are the confirmation that a letter to discontinue the buy-out offer has been submitted to NGX, and the share redistribution exercise.

megawealth01:
Wale don make plans from today sha... OANDO eh

DYOR

Have you heard or seen any info?
Abeg oo, say it explicitly, if possible.

ceelog:
I really dont know TBH and i am on the low level of the ladder of knowledge in stocks. I want the thought leaders to share their perspectives on Sunu recent status if they dont mind.

Sunu rose and rose and rose since last year till January. It continued rising as if it would rise for ever, making over 200% and entered deep into over-bought region.
And you're now saying you don't know why it started falling?

Thank Sir

BullBearMkt:
Guinea Insurance is one of the great insurance stocks that ended 2024 very well, closing at 0.80. Personally, I would rather wait for price to decline into the next support area between 0.68 - 0.76. However, you may also target its 2024 closing price.

ALSO NOTE THAT THERE IS POSSIBILITY FOR PRICE TO CONTINUE TO RISE FROM CURRENT PRICE

bastardson:
No one is saying anything about Ellah Lakes.. All so quiet about it.

.....Continued .....
What is the chances of a bear base or bull occurring?
From my observation, i will give a bear case 55%, base 45% and bull 5%
a) Bear condition = $0.05b x 0.5% = $0.0275b
b) Base condition = $0.75b x 0.45% = $0.3375b
c) Bull condition = $3.8b x 0.05% = #0.19b
Weighted avg. condition Future Market Cap = a + b + c = $0.52b x #1,600/$1 = #830b future market cap.
Can Ellah Lake really make this? and what year?
Current Ellah Lakes Market Cap is #8.4 b so from calculation above, this is roughly %5000 upside, meaning a #1m invested in Ellah lakes now, if it meets our target will give us #50m excluding dividends and bonuses.
The next question is, how many years will it take ellah lakes to achieve this target?
I will give a ellah lakes a 10 year period, that is 2035 with a moratorium of 3 years which means they won't generate revenue or profit from now till 2027 ending allowing their crops to mature and ready for harvesting and generating income.
Then from 2028 till 2035, ellah lakes must generate revenue and profit and grow their market cap on yearly basis by atleast 64% till 2035 from 2028 - can the management make this? is it achievable?
Let's do the survival Analysis of Ellah Lakes -

Their negative FCF from 2024 - 2021 = 498m - 508m - none - 3380m. This is what they have been burning into investment on yearly basis
Cash and cash equivalent from 2024 to 2021 = 230m - 916m - 237m - 323m. So they only have 6 months cash left to survive 2024, in other wodrs they need to raise loan or dilute more shares to raise capital to keep surviving.
Digging deeper, i noticed they did RI in 2024 and also did a private placement to raise more cash. Probably will be a convertible loan to equity in future.
Since we expect ellah lakes to not generate anything meaningful until 2028 and burning an average of 500m per year, we expect her to raise capital mostly through stock issuance that will last her for atleast 3 years = #1.5b worth of stocks
At #3/share of ellah lakes, an extra 750m shares would be issued to the OS of 2.75b = 3.5b by 2028
Debt raised from 2024 to 2021 = none -38m - 29m -940m
Issuance of stocks from 2024 - 2021 = 2186m - 1187m - 100m - 2200m
From our above calculation, Future Market cap by 2035 = 830b
OS by 2028 - 2035 = 3.5b
Implied price by 2035 when a venture capitalist wants to sell his shares and pull out = #237 / shares.
Can they really make it?
A #1m invested now in ellah lakes to worth 237m by 2035? 10 years from now
a 100k invested now to get 24m in 2035, is it possible?

Ding!

With the little clarify Wale gave yesterday, Oando might gradually edge towards ₦70.

Wale is a master of this market... He is a gamer.

emmaodet:
Valuation of your Ellah Lakes -
Many stock traders and even short/medium term investors mostly shy away from stocks like ellah lakes because it is hard to value or measure due to little or no revenue and profit but the good news is that anything and EVERYTHING has value and can be measured.....ANYTHING .. from accidental cars, scraps, rags, feaces / human waste....anything, just anything.
Ellah Lakes falls into stage 1 or 2 of corporate/business cycle and the characteristics are - little or no revenue, no gross profit down to negative or expanding operation loss and loss after tax plus expanding/diluting outstanding shares.
This is the terrain of Venture Capitalist and not traders or investors until it starts declaring revenue and profit.
So how do we value a non-profitable company/stock? or a stock not generating income? One out of the best valuation tools in our valuation box that fits this class of stock is TAM - Total Addressable Market

Your head is correct .......well done!

Here we go!!!
Monitor on https://stockbubbles.com.ng/ for real time updates

Toluway:
Sunu rose and rose and rose since last year till January. It continued rising as if it would rise for ever, making over 200% and entered deep into over-bought region.
And you're now saying you don't know why it started falling?

I tire ooop

pluto09:
The job you are doing here now reminds me of those good old days of the defunct stock market Nigeria (SMN) . You can't analyze too much, the deeper you dig the better you understand.
I personally appreciate those who take their time to analyze and scrutinize company financial reports.

You were part of SMN back then? Great forum with very brilliant and loving hearts. I remember Zain that wonderful and brilliant lady.

emmaodet:
.....Continued .....
What is the chances of a bear base or bull occurring?
From my observation, i will give a bear case 55%, base 45% and bull 5%
a) Bear condition = $0.05b x 0.5% = $0.0275b
b) Base condition = $0.75b x 0.45% = $0.3375b
c) Bull condition = $3.8b x 0.05% = #0.19b
Weighted avg. condition Future Market Cap = a + b + c = $0.52b x #1,600/$1 = #830b future market cap.
Can Ellah Lake really make this? and what year?
Current Ellah Lakes Market Cap is #8.4 b so from calculation above, this is roughly %5000 upside, meaning a #1m invested in Ellah lakes now, if it meets our target will give us #50m excluding dividends and bonuses.
The next question is, how many years will it take ellah lakes to achieve this target?
I will give a ellah lakes a 10 year period, that is 2035 with a moratorium of 3 years which means they won't generate revenue or profit from now till 2027 ending allowing their crops to mature and ready for harvesting and generating income.
Then from 2028 till 2035, ellah lakes must generate revenue and profit and grow their market cap on yearly basis by atleast 64% till 2035 from 2028 - can the management make this? is it achievable?
Let's do the survival Analysis of Ellah Lakes -

Their negative FCF from 2024 - 2021 = 498m - 508m - none - 3380m. This is what they have been burning into investment on yearly basis
Cash and cash equivalent from 2024 to 2021 = 230m - 916m - 237m - 323m. So they only have 6 months cash left to survive 2024, in other wodrs they need to raise loan or dilute more shares to raise capital to keep surviving.
Digging deeper, i noticed they did RI in 2024 and also did a private placement to raise more cash. Probably will be a convertible loan to equity in future.
Since we expect ellah lakes to not generate anything meaningful until 2028 and burning an average of 500m per year, we expect her to raise capital mostly through stock issuance that will last her for atleast 3 years = #1.5b worth of stocks
At #3/share of ellah lakes, an extra 750m shares would be issued to the OS of 2.75b = 3.5b by 2028
Debt raised from 2024 to 2021 = none -38m - 29m -940m
Issuance of stocks from 2024 - 2021 = 2186m - 1187m - 100m - 2200m
From our above calculation, Future Market cap by 2035 = 830b
OS by 2028 - 2035 = 3.5b
Implied price by 2035 when a venture capitalist wants to sell his shares and pull out = #237 / shares.
Can they really make it?
A #1m invested now in ellah lakes to worth 237m by 2035? 10 years from now
a 100k invested now to get 24m in 2035, is it possible?

Maize can be cultivated and harvested twice a year. Rice is annually too.

Any farm that did any cultivation last year should harvest this year at least.

if Maize and Rice are in the discuss, how come there are no harvest.

Abi na iron rice?

Also how much of dilution they would have done during the period under review would have hit the OS to more than 20B units. far away from Presco and OkomuOil

shonyboi:
How?

You can attach to you comment.

When you want to comment look down you would see "choose file". Click and attach the soft copy. Thank you.

Someone should supply 100k OkomuOil make we move.

faoogoke:
You were part of SMN back then? Great forum with very brilliant and loving hearts. I remember Zain that wonderful and brilliant lady.

😘

emmaodet:
.....Continued .....
What is the chances of a bear base or bull occurring?
From my observation, i will give a bear case 55%, base 45% and bull 5%
a) Bear condition = $0.05b x 0.5% = $0.0275b
b) Base condition = $0.75b x 0.45% = $0.3375b
c) Bull condition = $3.8b x 0.05% = #0.19b
Weighted avg. condition Future Market Cap = a + b + c = $0.52b x #1,600/$1 = #830b future market cap.
Can Ellah Lake really make this? and what year?
Current Ellah Lakes Market Cap is #8.4 b so from calculation above, this is roughly %5000 upside, meaning a #1m invested in Ellah lakes now, if it meets our target will give us #50m excluding dividends and bonuses.
The next question is, how many years will it take ellah lakes to achieve this target?
I will give a ellah lakes a 10 year period, that is 2035 with a moratorium of 3 years which means they won't generate revenue or profit from now till 2027 ending allowing their crops to mature and ready for harvesting and generating income.
Then from 2028 till 2035, ellah lakes must generate revenue and profit and grow their market cap on yearly basis by atleast 64% till 2035 from 2028 - can the management make this? is it achievable?
Let's do the survival Analysis of Ellah Lakes -

Their negative FCF from 2024 - 2021 = 498m - 508m - none - 3380m. This is what they have been burning into investment on yearly basis
Cash and cash equivalent from 2024 to 2021 = 230m - 916m - 237m - 323m. So they only have 6 months cash left to survive 2024, in other wodrs they need to raise loan or dilute more shares to raise capital to keep surviving.
Digging deeper, i noticed they did RI in 2024 and also did a private placement to raise more cash. Probably will be a convertible loan to equity in future.
Since we expect ellah lakes to not generate anything meaningful until 2028 and burning an average of 500m per year, we expect her to raise capital mostly through stock issuance that will last her for atleast 3 years = #1.5b worth of stocks
At #3/share of ellah lakes, an extra 750m shares would be issued to the OS of 2.75b = 3.5b by 2028
Debt raised from 2024 to 2021 = none -38m - 29m -940m
Issuance of stocks from 2024 - 2021 = 2186m - 1187m - 100m - 2200m
From our above calculation, Future Market cap by 2035 = 830b
OS by 2028 - 2035 = 3.5b
Implied price by 2035 when a venture capitalist wants to sell his shares and pull out = #237 / shares.
Can they really make it?
A #1m invested now in ellah lakes to worth 237m by 2035? 10 years from now
a 100k invested now to get 24m in 2035, is it possible?

Crazy breakdown. Nice one, but the ability to wait that long. So no prospect for profit in the next 3 yrs.

I am actually fine with that. Biggest issue is my trust in the current management, expansion as the palm oil aspect is the goldmine but they have just 2,500 Hectares of land in Edo for that.

If they acquire more land, it means they would need to wait for more years again.

I am not as grounded with figure though