₦airaland Forum

E be like sey Loco don sell em CHAMS. This is not looking normal

Its 591Kb seems one can only upload 250kb here

Meerahbel:
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bastardson:
E be like sey Loco don sell em CHAMS. This is not looking normal

There is nothing unusual in what is going on in chams. The stock, just like any other stock in NGX, is bound to go either up or down pending release of their financial result, which will justify the actual market price.

Dangcem down by 10%

Xidget:
Dangcem down by 10%

At last ....
Don dey trap for inside
With my Afolabi units..

Thanks. At least you made an honest effort to defend your emerging vision that Chams may transform itself from a low-margin card manufacturer to a lucrative, high-growth payment-processing ecosystem.

When people (not you, they know themselves) make wild claims about a stock, we all learn a lot by pushing them to explain their thesis. For instance, we can tell from your thesis that reinventing itself to become the next Moniepoint will be an expensive, years-long slog for Chams, which is led by a middle-aged chartered accountant, unlike Moniepoint, which is led by a much younger software engineer.

Good luck to shareholders waiting for that dream to materialize.

Omooloriredade:
Ok, I took the bait....haha.

...I have been studying the INDUSTRY they operate in.

My reference to Moneypoint was because they have virtually the same licences to conduct the nature of business Moniepoint does....

Again the market potential is massive and it is still at a nascent stage in Nigeria and Africa at large. Transaction switching, mobile banking, fintech solutions etc

...Not suggesting Chams is going to a $1B valuation but highlighting the market potential if they get it right in the fintech space....

chimex38:
GDP has been rebased again.
I say make I update you.
So you can understand NBS stats better

https://businessday.ng/big-read/article/explainer-what-gdp-cpi-rebasing-means-for-economy/

Have they now included illegal activities like prostitution etc. in the GDP as they indicated in the news few days ago?

You don't easily get that quantity in stocks like Okomu, Presco, Aradel, Airtel, Seplat, Bua Food, Dangote Cement etc because of their price range. Except the big Boyz are in the market.

edwardaigb:
Someone should supply 100k OkomuOil make we move.

They should come o. We're hungry

jonnysessy:
You don't easily get that quantity in stocks like Okomu, Presco, Aradel, Airtel, Seplat, Bua Food, Dangote Cement etc because of their price range. Except the big Boyz are in the market.

Presco growth from 2019


Revenue growth

2019 N19.7 billion
2020 NN23.9 billion
2021 N47.1 billion
2022 N69.3 billion
2023 N85 billion
2024 N160 billion ( forecast based on N128 billion achieved at Q3 2024)


Profit after tax growth

2019 N3.7 billion
2020 N5.2 billion
2021 N19.8 billion
2022 N12.8 billion
2023 N32.4 billion
2024 N65 billion ( forecast based on N51.7 billion achieved in Q3 2024)

Equity growth

2019 N27.9 billions
2020 N31 billion
2021 N48 billion
2022 N52 billion
2023 N75.4 billion
2024 N85 billion


Return on equity growth

2019 13.3%
2020 16.8%
2021 41%
2022 24.6%
2023 43%
2024 76.5% (Although Meristem securities forecast is 80%)

Net profit margin growth

2019 18.8%
2020 21.7%
2021 42%
2022 18.5%
2023 38%
2024 40.6%

Technical Analysis:

All 3 issues have been resolved over the past two trading days since this post.

Despite this volume spike, still doesn't mean it is liquid but something is happening there.

Soon the FA folks will tell us the 'why'.

Do with this information what you will.

thesilentone:
Technical analysis for BETAGLASS:

Weeklies:
Resistance 67
Major Resistance: 75.40
Above all relevant MAs
MAs rising
Volume spike in December
Significant changes of board members including new CEO (Catalyst might be earnings results like NAHCO?)

Negatives
Lack of Liquidity is an issue.
Volume increase not commensurate with price increase
Breakout already happened - pullback necessary for best entry
No insider trading

Verdict: Imperative that it closes above 67 for trend confirmation. A pullback after this, a digestion and then a push for 75.40 would be ideal. Volume needs to be significantly improved.

Not on my radar.

Xidget:
Dangcem down by 10%

Yes o someone finally bite the bullet, unless they do buy back at company level that thing will be on full offer for a long time

Currentprice's NASCON call

A true compounding machine !!!

emmanuelewumi:
Presco growth from 2019


Revenue growth

2019 N19.7 billion
2020 NN23.9 billion
2021 N47.1 billion
2022 N69.3 billion
2023 N85 billion
2024 N160 billion ( forecast based on N128 billion achieved at Q3 2024)


Profit after tax growth

2019 N3.7 billion
2020 N5.2 billion
2021 N19.8 billion
2022 N12.8 billion
2023 N32.4 billion
2024 N65 billion ( forecast based on N51.7 billion achieved in Q3 2024)

Equity growth

2019 N27.9 billions
2020 N31 billion
2021 N48 billion
2022 N52 billion
2023 N75.4 billion
2024 N85 billion


Return on equity growth

2019 13.3%
2020 16.8%
2021 41%
2022 24.6%
2023 43%
2024 76.5% (Although Meristem securities forecast is 80%)

Net profit margin growth

2019 18.8%
2020 21.7%
2021 42%
2022 18.5%
2023 38%
2024 40.6%

emmaodet:
.....Continued .....
What is the chances of a bear base or bull occurring?
From my observation, i will give a bear case 55%, base 45% and bull 5%
a) Bear condition = $0.05b x 0.5% = $0.0275b
b) Base condition = $0.75b x 0.45% = $0.3375b
c) Bull condition = $3.8b x 0.05% = #0.19b
Weighted avg. condition Future Market Cap = a + b + c = $0.52b x #1,600/$1 = #830b future market cap.
Can Ellah Lake really make this? and what year?
Current Ellah Lakes Market Cap is #8.4 b so from calculation above, this is roughly %5000 upside, meaning a #1m invested in Ellah lakes now, if it meets our target will give us #50m excluding dividends and bonuses.
The next question is, how many years will it take ellah lakes to achieve this target?
I will give a ellah lakes a 10 year period, that is 2035 with a moratorium of 3 years which means they won't generate revenue or profit from now till 2027 ending allowing their crops to mature and ready for harvesting and generating income.
Then from 2028 till 2035, ellah lakes must generate revenue and profit and grow their market cap on yearly basis by atleast 64% till 2035 from 2028 - can the management make this? is it achievable?
Let's do the survival Analysis of Ellah Lakes -

Their negative FCF from 2024 - 2021 = 498m - 508m - none - 3380m. This is what they have been burning into investment on yearly basis
Cash and cash equivalent from 2024 to 2021 = 230m - 916m - 237m - 323m. So they only have 6 months cash left to survive 2024, in other wodrs they need to raise loan or dilute more shares to raise capital to keep surviving.
Digging deeper, i noticed they did RI in 2024 and also did a private placement to raise more cash. Probably will be a convertible loan to equity in future.
Since we expect ellah lakes to not generate anything meaningful until 2028 and burning an average of 500m per year, we expect her to raise capital mostly through stock issuance that will last her for atleast 3 years = #1.5b worth of stocks
At #3/share of ellah lakes, an extra 750m shares would be issued to the OS of 2.75b = 3.5b by 2028
Debt raised from 2024 to 2021 = none -38m - 29m -940m
Issuance of stocks from 2024 - 2021 = 2186m - 1187m - 100m - 2200m
From our above calculation, Future Market cap by 2035 = 830b
OS by 2028 - 2035 = 3.5b
Implied price by 2035 when a venture capitalist wants to sell his shares and pull out = #237 / shares.
Can they really make it?
A #1m invested now in ellah lakes to worth 237m by 2035? 10 years from now
a 100k invested now to get 24m in 2035, is it possible?

Meaning there'll be a lot of ellah lake billionaires by 2035 if this is true

When they produce their first litre of Palm Oil. I will buy it

emmaodet:
.....Continued .....
What is the chances of a bear base or bull occurring?
From my observation, i will give a bear case 55%, base 45% and bull 5%
a) Bear condition = $0.05b x 0.5% = $0.0275b
b) Base condition = $0.75b x 0.45% = $0.3375b
c) Bull condition = $3.8b x 0.05% = #0.19b
Weighted avg. condition Future Market Cap = a + b + c = $0.52b x #1,600/$1 = #830b future market cap.
Can Ellah Lake really make this? and what year?
Current Ellah Lakes Market Cap is #8.4 b so from calculation above, this is roughly %5000 upside, meaning a #1m invested in Ellah lakes now, if it meets our target will give us #50m excluding dividends and bonuses.
The next question is, how many years will it take ellah lakes to achieve this target?
I will give a ellah lakes a 10 year period, that is 2035 with a moratorium of 3 years which means they won't generate revenue or profit from now till 2027 ending allowing their crops to mature and ready for harvesting and generating income.
Then from 2028 till 2035, ellah lakes must generate revenue and profit and grow their market cap on yearly basis by atleast 64% till 2035 from 2028 - can the management make this? is it achievable?
Let's do the survival Analysis of Ellah Lakes -

Their negative FCF from 2024 - 2021 = 498m - 508m - none - 3380m. This is what they have been burning into investment on yearly basis
Cash and cash equivalent from 2024 to 2021 = 230m - 916m - 237m - 323m. So they only have 6 months cash left to survive 2024, in other wodrs they need to raise loan or dilute more shares to raise capital to keep surviving.
Digging deeper, i noticed they did RI in 2024 and also did a private placement to raise more cash. Probably will be a convertible loan to equity in future.
Since we expect ellah lakes to not generate anything meaningful until 2028 and burning an average of 500m per year, we expect her to raise capital mostly through stock issuance that will last her for atleast 3 years = #1.5b worth of stocks
At #3/share of ellah lakes, an extra 750m shares would be issued to the OS of 2.75b = 3.5b by 2028
Debt raised from 2024 to 2021 = none -38m - 29m -940m
Issuance of stocks from 2024 - 2021 = 2186m - 1187m - 100m - 2200m
From our above calculation, Future Market cap by 2035 = 830b
OS by 2028 - 2035 = 3.5b
Implied price by 2035 when a venture capitalist wants to sell his shares and pull out = #237 / shares.
Can they really make it?
A #1m invested now in ellah lakes to worth 237m by 2035? 10 years from now
a 100k invested now to get 24m in 2035, is it possible?

Ginalex:
Currentprice's NASCON call

Oga CP na Genius

IYGEAL:
Oga CP na Genius

Walahiiiiiiiiiiiiii

Sunrisepebble:
When they produce their first litre of Palm Oil. I will buy it

Absolutely with you on this.

HONEYFLOR -10%

IYGEAL:
Oga CP na Genius

I bought the UACN when he first called it out and the stock is already doing 57% comfortably in my portfolio. He also made case for Livestock Feeds. Then Livestock was selling at 375k but now around 600k. He has proven himself on this platform beyond reasonable doubt and it is a pleasure to have him with us alongside other resource persons.

see how aiico switch to 1.84, person wan hold the price from falling.

ARADEL. ±
CONOIL. ±
ETERNA. +4.87%
OandO. +2.42%

ndept:
I bought the UACN when he first called it out and the stock is already doing 57% comfortably in my portfolio. He also made case for Livestock Feeds. Then Livestock was selling at 375k but now around 600k. He has proven himself on this platform beyond reasonable doubt and it is a pleasure to have him with us on the platform alongside other resource persons.

despite your wealth of experience in this market, your post do come in form of appreciation and it has been a motivation to come out and do more. Thank you bro

yeah, I remember I posted the livestock @ below 4 . I mentioned the stock along the Mansard and cornerstone all in November 2024.. just decided not to talk much on it, am not the type that like list many stock on here for alert... this look to me as doing probabilities of getting one right. I like to talk about a big fish 1 or 2 stock for the year. But catch fun with those stock that could give 60, 70, 80% during the year such like the livestock stuff

ndept:
I bought the UACN when he first called it out and the stock is already doing 57% comfortably in my portfolio. He also made case for Livestock Feeds. Then Livestock was selling at 375k but now around 600k. He has proven himself on this platform beyond reasonable doubt and it is a pleasure to have him with us alongside other resource persons.

100%

shonyboi:
Its 591Kb seems one can only upload 250kb here

I will quote you on a dead thread with an email so I can get it. Thank you.

mikeapollo:
Have they now included illegal activities like prostitution etc. in the GDP as they indicated in the news few days ago?

lol.. If you ask me, na who I go ask?
Na academic research dem dey use us do.

currentprice:
despite your wealth of experience in this market, your post do come in form of appreciation and it has been a motivation to come out and do more. Thank you bro

yeah, I remember I posted the livestock @ below 4 . I mentioned the stock along the Mansard and cornerstone all in November 2024.. just decided not to talk much on it, am not the type that like listed many stock on here for alert... this look to me as doing probabilities of getting one right. I like to talk about a big fish 1 or 2 stock for the year. But catch fun with those stock that could give 60, 70, 80% during the year such like the livestock stuff

You're doing well sir. Osheey!

ndept:
I bought the UACN when he first called it out and the stock is already doing 57% comfortably in my portfolio. He also made case for Livestock Feeds. Then Livestock was selling at 375k but now around 600k. He has proven himself on this platform beyond reasonable doubt and it is a pleasure to have him with us alongside other resource persons.

comparing to my portfolio it look like you must have average up your price. from you previous post we bought almost at same price and I have more higher percentage that 57% u posted

currentprice:
comparing to my portfolio it look like you must have average up your price. from you previous post we bought almost at same price and I have more higher percentage that 57% u posted

Yes o. I bought more thereafter. My break even (BE) price is 2164k

I don run with approx 70% profit on NSLTECH

Health3:
I don run with approx 70% profit on NSLTECH

One of the best decisions that is sometimes hard to do by most traders