₦airaland Forum

Really interesting investment opportunity, this one. You'd think that in a country with such huge infrastructure gaps left and right, investment vehicles like this would command a premium in the market. Instead, we're bottom-fishing with Chams.

Any insight you can provide besides the numbers?

yMcy56:
NIDF
4th quarter distribution has landed.....

Q1 2024:N4.23
Q2 2024: N4.27
Q3 2024: N5.09
Then
Q4 2024: N5.50

Stock delivering Q-on-Q without stress.
E Ku Market o.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/NIDF_Q4_2024_Distribution_Announcement_.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42899_NIGERIA_INFRASTRUCTURE_DEBT_FUND-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2025.pdf

Ginalex:
Did you read my response to one of them or you became blind all of a sudden?? If your new year resolution for 2025 is to become a monitoring spirit then I'm sorry to say that it's PATHETIC. Kindly face the business that pays you like I previously advised. Na you by yourself talk last year say you sell your Nascon at a loss of 800k. All of a sudden, you want to lecture me on how I should have handled my holdings... BOMB DEY YOUR HEAD

Admit you were wrong and make amendments—that's all. By the way, it was DangSugar, and Presco has done well for me.

Now, do you agree that I can and will quote you whenever I like? Is that clear? If you make a mistake, I have every right, as a registered member, to correct your errors. Just so you know, Nairaland is a public forum, and you have no say in who quotes you.

ositadima1:
Admit you were wrong and make amendments—that's all. By the way, it was DangSugar, and Presco has done well for me.

Now, do you agree that I can and will quote you whenever I like? Is that clear? If you make a mistake, I have every right, as a registered member, to correct your errors. Just so you know, Nairaland is a public forum, and you have no say in who quotes you.

k

A gift to the house: School of Money.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuxLaAv5snk?feature=shared

Ades1:
Bros, can you please drop a similar analysis for TOTAL? 2025 is the year of portfolio consolidation, Trying to reduce all holding to 10-12.

Total -

They are into blending of lubricants, sales and marketing of refined petroleum products and solar products.
Petroleum revenue inceased from 326.4b to 634.1b in Q3/24
lubricants and others from 96.2b to 159.8b
There is a legal action against the company (contigent liability) of 1.26 trillion naira and no provision has been made yet for it in the financial report.
loan increased by 16b to 101.5b, cash and cash equiv. from 88.2b to 99.6b. Net debt is 2.2b
Revenue increased yearly by 53% from 2020 to 794b in Q3/2024, FY 24 to be 1 trillion plus
Net income increased by 103% from 2020 to 27.4b Q3/24
Net margin has been decreasing by 17% from 2021 to 2024 to 3.2%
EPS reducing from 49.7 in 2021 to 38.03 in 2023 but increased to 80.8 in Q3/24
FCF reduced from 52.5b in 2021 to -15.8b in Q3/2024
Equity increased from 42b in 2021 to 75b in Q3/24
Retained earnings increasing YoY
current receivables increased to 226.7b from 152.1b, current payable from 214b to 324b
Inventory from 74b to 141b
Using Cap Oil, Mrs, Conoil and Eterna as benchmarks for industry- Finchat as reference point
Industry highest Gross margin for LTM - 12.8% which is Total
Industry highest Operatin margin for LTM - 8.3%, Total is 6.6%
Industry highest Net margin for LTM - 5.96%, Total is 3.2%
Industry P/E - Highest 23.2, Lowest 7.4
Using a forward P/E of 7.4 / 10, implied price will be between #720 to #1000

Thanks for sharing this very useful video

oluzingh:
A gift to the house: School of Money.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuxLaAv5snk?feature=shared

Those are the real MM (Market Manipulators)

GeeKudi:
There seems to be a well coordinated strategy by some group (maybe a whatsapp group somewhere) to create short-lived euphoria around stocks, one at a time, for some 10 - 15% profits. Once they achieve this target in a particular stock, they abandon it and move to the next one. I really don't know but this has happened in a number of stocks this january against experts' predictictions and expectations.

Make una let the market breathe so we can see the specific direction the market would want to take in this new year, biko.

Ginalex:
My oga I no kon dey see your break light. Shey na Osita wahala make you abandon us ??

My sister, not at alI.
Don't mind Osita, he's not an "enemy", stop getting yourself worked up over his teasing. 😁
Though the negative energies here just tired me but....
I've been more busy and needed more time to myself......
Try and be ignoring some of Osita's posts or you just laugh it over.

SonofElElyonRet:
Mercy please you heard anything about mbenefit? Which kind indefinite suspension come be dis nah. Wahala wa o

Not yet.
Lets be hopeful
It's not expected to take this long.....but you can send mail to them or their Registrar

emmanuelewumi:
Hope you sent Christmas hampers or monetary gifts to him.
You guys just like awoof

Really happy this came from Pa Emma.
All that was needed by majority here is to keep collecting and collecting, but when it çomes to giving, everyone will carry face.

When OGG decided to monetize his efforts, he got lots of bashing and attacks here.......not forgetting how he was never appreciated when giving free of charge, except for few.

So some of you still want Mcy to keep coming here to make noise as usual........how many even remember to wish us merry Christmas during the festive period self? Not to talk of new year?

Just saying and commenting on Pa Emma's post anyway.
God's grace has been sufficient for us. 😊

yMcy56:
Not yet.
Lets be hopeful
It's not expected to take this long.....but you can send mail to them or their Registrar

Ok

emmanuelewumi:
At N97.6 EPS it should get to N900 or thereabout. I don't use average 5 years PE.

I use justified PE based on the return on equity, earning growth and the spread between the Return on Invested Capital and risk free yield of about 20% on FGN bond

What ROE did you use?
Roic is about 10% thereby leaving a negative spread if you intend to use cost of equity of 20%.
Earnings growth of over 100% between 2023 and 2024 is not sustainable, I think 15-20% looks better

Oando's journey to N150 has just begun....Interesting times ahead...

https://nairametrics.com/2025/01/17/honeywell-chairman-oba-otudeko-reportedly-departs-nigeria-amid-legal-dispute/

I wanted to ask @Mega before, how long could the honey be sweet?

Now, how could this play out for HONYFLOUR?

FBNH, I believe will be well despite many issues relating to both Oba and Ote

[quote author= post=133747741]You do realize that Honeywell Flour Mill is not part of Otudeko Honeywell Group?[/quote]

olig:
https://nairametrics.com/2025/01/17/honeywell-chairman-oba-otudeko-reportedly-departs-nigeria-amid-legal-dispute/

I wanted to ask @Mega before, how long could the honey be sweet?

Now, how could this play out for HONYFLOUR?

FBNH, I believe will be well despite many issues relating to both Oba and Ote

olig:
https://nairametrics.com/2025/01/17/honeywell-chairman-oba-otudeko-reportedly-departs-nigeria-amid-legal-dispute/

I wanted to ask @Mega before, how long could the honey be sweet?

Now, how could this play out for HONYFLOUR?

FBNH, I believe will be well despite many issues relating to both Oba and Ote

81-YEAR-OLD EX-FIRST BANK CHAIRMAN, OBA OTUDEKO, FLEES NIGERIA VIA LAND BORDER, BEFORE COURT ARRAIGNMENT ON FRAUD CHARGES
Oba Otudeko, former Chairman of First Bank, has fled Nigeria ahead of his scheduled arraignment on fraud charges this Monday.
The sudden departure comes amidst a slew of financial disputes and allegations surrounding Otudeko, 81.
Otudeko's exit from the country is linked to the mounting legal pressures and financial disputes he is facing. The businessman left the country via one of the land borders. He was dropped off at the Nigeria-Benin border on Thursday evening by a family member.
When we reached out to Otudeko, his phone number was switched off. Messages sent to his WhatsApp, however, were delivered – but there was no response.
Obafemi Otudeko, his son, did not respond to calls and messages when contacted for comments on his father’s whereabouts and destination.
A Federal High Court in Lagos had fixed Monday, January 20, 2025, for the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to arraign the Oba Otudeko and a former First Bank Managing Director, Stephen Olabisi Onasanya, for allegedly looting N12.3 billion from First Bank.
Otudeko and Onasanya are to be arraigned alongside a former board member of Honeywell, Soji Akintayo, and a firm, Anchorage Leisure Limited, connected to Otudeko.
According to the EFCC, the 4 of them committed the fraud in tranches of N5.2 billion, N6.2 billion, N6.150 billion, N1.5 billion and N500 million, between 2013 and 2014 in Lagos,
The 13-count charge, filed by EFCC counsel, Bilikisu Buhari, on January 16, 2025, further claimed that the defendants forged documents to deceive the bank.
The EFCC said Otudeko, Onasanya, Akintayo and Anchorage would be brought before Justice Chukwujekwu Aneke, to whom the case, registered as FHC/L/20C/2025, had been assigned.
Specifically, count 1 accused the defendants of conspiring "to obtain the sum of N12.3 billion from First Bank Limited on the pretence that the said sum represented credit facilities applied for by V-TECH DYNAMIC LINKS LIMITED and Stallion Nigeria Limited, which representation you know to be false."
In count 2, it was alleged that the defendants, on or about November 26, 2013 in Lagos, "obtained the sum of N5.2 billion from First Bank Limited on the pretence that the said sum represented credit facilities applied for by V TECH DYNAMIC LINKS LIMITED which representation you know to be false."
Efforts to contact Dele Oyewale, the EFCC spokesman, were unsuccessful, as attempts to reach him regarding Oba Otudeko's whereabouts were met with silence.
Despite multiple calls to his official phone line on Friday, the line remained unreachable, with a "switch off" message.

The great businessman has finished his mic testing experiment to confirm who controls the market. #DangCem #DangSugar upcoming #DangFoods and hopefully in future #DangOil

The pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, have risen to between N1,050 and N1,150/litre depending on the area of purchase, following the hike in the cost of the commodity by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and various depot owners.

https://punchng.com/petrol-pump-price-surges-to-n1150-after-dangote-hike/?amp

*NGX HAS NOW REVIEWED MARKET INDICES, AMID ENTRIES & EXITS OF COMPANIES*

The Nigerian Exchange Ltd. (NGX) on Thursday announced the results of its full-year market index review for its indices. The Exchange also announced the entries and exits of some companies in the various indices. NGX, in a report, listed the affected indices as NGX 30; NGX Lotus Islamic; NGX Pension; NGX Pension Broad Index; Corporate Governance Index; Afrinvest Bank Value Index and Afrinvest Dividend Yield Index. Others are: Meristem Growth Index; Meristem Value Index; and the five Sectoral Indices of The Exchange – NGX Banking, NGX Insurance, NGX Industrial, NGX Consumer Goods and NGX Oil and Gas. The Exchange said the review had led to the entries and exits of some companies from several indices which took effect at the opening of the market on Thursday.

*NGX 30 Index*: Companies that have now exited out of NGX 30 Index are:
1) Flour Mills Nigeria Plc
2) Guinness Nigeria Plc
3) Sterling Holding Company Plc
4) Total Nigeria Plc

Companies that have now entered into NGX 30 Index are:
1) Conoil Plc
2) International Breweries Plc
3) Oando Plc
4) Transcorp Power Plc

*NGX Consumer Goods Index*: Companies that have now exited out of NGX Consumer Goods Index are:
1) Flour Mills Nigeria Plc

Companies that have now entered into NGX Consumer Goods Index are:
1) Golden Guinea Breweries Plc

*NGX Banking Index*: Companies that have now exited out of NGX Banking Index are:
1) Sterling Holding Company Plc

Companies that have now entered into NGX Banking Index are:
1) Wema Bank Plc

*NGX Insurance Index*: Companies that have now exited out of NGX Insurance Index are:
1) LASACO Assurance Plc
2) Mutual Benefits Assurance Plc

Companies that have now entered into NGX Insurance Index are:
1) Guinea Insurance Plc
2) International Energy Insurance Plc

*NGX Oil and Gas Index*: Companies that have now exited out of NGX Oil and Gas Index are:
1) Japaul Oil and Maritime Services Plc

Companies that have now entered into NGX Oil and Gas Index are:
1) Aradel Holdings Plc
2) MRS Plc
3) Oando Plc

*NGX Pension Index*: Companies that have now exited out of NGX Pension Index are:
1) Cadbury Nigeria Plc
2) Flour Mills Nigeria Plc

Companies that have now entered into NGX Pension Index are:
1) Aradel Holdings Plc
2) Transcorp Power Plc

*NGX Lotus Islamic Index*: Companies that have now exited out of NGX Lotus Islamic Index are:
1) Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc

Companies that have now entered into NGX Lotus Islamic Index are:
1) Aradel Holdings Plc

*NGX Pension Broad Index*: Companies that have now exited out of NGX Pension Broad Index are:
1) Flour Mills Nigeria Plc

Companies that have now entered into NGX Pension Broad Index are:
1) Aradel Holdings Plc

*Afrinvest Dividend Yield Index*: Companies that have now exited out of Afrinvest Dividend Yield Index are:
1) Dangote Cement Plc
2) FCMB Group Plc

Companies that have now entered into Afrinvest Dividend Yield Index are:
1) Red Star Express Plc

*Meristem Growth Index*: Companies that have now exited out of Meristem Growth Index are:
1) Access Bank Plc
2) Zenith Bank Plc

Companies that have now entered into Meristem Growth Index are:
1) FCMB Group Plc

*Meristem Value Index*: Companies that have now exited out of Meristem Value Index are:
1) AIICO Insurance Plc
2) FCMB Group Plc
3) Flour Mills Nigeria Plc
4) Nigerian Breweries

Companies that have now entered into Meristem Value Index are:
1) Access Bank Plc
2) Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc
3) Zenith Bank Plc

Stock Market Indices that did not record any Exit or Entry of Companies, are:
1) *Afrinvest Bank Value Index*
2) *Corporate Governance Index*
3) *NGX Industrial Index*

Designed using the market capitalisation methodology, NGX explained that the indices are re-balanced 2 times in a year, on the 1st business day in January, and on the 1st business day in July, respectively. The Exchange said it had also launched a brand new *NGX Equity-Based Commodity Index*. “This is a broad market commodity index that captures and tracks the collective movements of companies with primary operations in energy, agriculture, mining, metals, and natural resources,” it said. It added that through the Equity-Based Commodity Index, investors are provided with potential exposure to the essential raw materials and natural resources that drive global economic activity. NGX stated that the index’s starting value is set at 1,000.

*NGX Equity-Based Commodity Index*: Companies that have now entered into NGX Equity-Based Commodity Index are:
1) Aradel Holdings Plc
2) Geregu Power Plc
3) Multiverse Mining and Exploration Plc
4) Okomu Oil Palm Plc
5) Presco Plc
6) Seplat Energy Plc
7) Transcorp Power Plc

Commenting, Mr Jude Chiemeka, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO), NGX, reiterated that the Exchange continues to blaze the path to becoming Africa’s foremost Securities Exchange. Chiemeka said this would be achieved with innovation and product developments that deepen the market and boost liquidity, thus connecting Nigeria, Africa and the world.
Similarly, Mr Abimbola Babalola, Head, Trading and Products, NGX, noted that the indices are developed, managed and re-balanced 2 times in a year. According to him, this is to allow investors track market movements efficiently and manage their investment portfolios properly.

With Fidelity banks plan to do a private placement of addittional 20billion units, pls what will be the OS at the end of the day. One site claims 73billion shares another says 63billion.
Those in fidelity, pls what is the correct figure?

The dilution is becoming too much. Eps go just dey like 80kobo. How much dem want come pay as dividend.

Mpeace:
With Fidelity banks plan to do a private placement of addittional 20billion units, pls what will be the OS at the end of the day. One site claims 73billion shares another says 63billion.
Those in fidelity, pls what is the correct figure?

The dilution is becoming too much. Eps go just dey like 80kobo. How much dem want come pay as dividend.

Go through the first paragraph on the disclosure page and you will find the information direct from Fidelity bank as increasing the share capital from current N26.7 Billion to N36.7 Billion of N0.50 each.

So when you divide by 50k you arrive at 73.4 Billion units of shares.

So the right answer is 73.4 billion.

The authentic figure is what you get from the company publication

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/Fidelity_Bank_Plc_Notice_of_EGM_.pdf

Ginalex:
Did you read my response to one of them or you became blind all of a sudden?? If your new year resolution for 2025 is to become a monitoring spirit then I'm sorry to say that it's PATHETIC. Kindly face the business that pays you like I previously advised. Na you by yourself talk last year say you sell your Nascon at a loss of 800k. All of a sudden, you want to lecture me on how I should have handled my holdings... BOMB DEY YOUR HEAD

Why would you want to be responding to this kind of irrelevant fights? Can't you just ignore and go on with your business on the forum?
No let people stress you too much na. This debacle is not for you, I think.

I’m usually a long term investor but I studied the market these past few days and decided to to some reshuffling to my portfolio. That is, Sell some and back into at some discounted prices. I was in shock when I discovered today that. I’ll try buying oando at 63.5N and these brokers are purchasing it at 65.6 N , when it went up to 69N I tried selling and they sold it at 65.5N because I was using market pricing instead of limit pricing (on Yochaa). I’m putting this out there because it’s very important. They did the same for all my purchases. They can’t cheat you when the stock is stable for example Aradel as there’s only 1 price for it. These are big margins. When I checked my broker’s statements from email I noticed that when you choose Limit price they actually buy it at the exact price . If you choose market pricing they can easily cheat you. By selling the stock to themselves at cheaper prices or buying at higher prices .its clear they are making profits off your trade. So it’s always important to use the limit price and set your own price. Let’s say a stock is 65.50 you can set limit price at 66.00 and you should be fine. If you choose market pricing they might actually buy it for you at 67.5 or even 68.00 big difference when you are doing volumes. I’m glad I learnt that today. We go again next week

You just paid some school fees...

AngelSlay:
I’m usually a long term investor but I studied the market these past few days and decided to to some reshuffling to my portfolio. That is, Sell some and back into at some discounted prices. I was in shock when I discovered today that. I’ll try buying oando at 63.5N and these brokers are purchasing it at 65.6 N , when it went up to 69N I tried selling and they sold it at 65.5N because I was using market pricing instead of limit pricing (on Yochaa). I’m putting this out there because it’s very important. They did the same for all my purchases. They can’t cheat you when the stock is stable for example Aradel as there’s only 1 price for it. These are big margins. When I checked my broker’s statements from email I noticed that when you choose Limit price they actually buy it at the exact price . If you choose market pricing they can easily cheat you. By selling the stock to themselves at cheaper prices or buying at higher prices .its clear they are making profits off your trade. So it’s always important to use the limit price and set your own price. Let’s say a stock is 65.50 you can set limit price at 66.00 and you should be fine. If you choose market pricing they might actually buy it for you at 67.5 or even 68.00 big difference when you are doing volumes. I’m glad I learnt that today. We go again next week

Ginalex:
Did you read my response to one of them or you became blind all of a sudden?? If your new year resolution for 2025 is to become a monitoring spirit then I'm sorry to say that it's PATHETIC. Kindly face the business that pays you like I previously advised. Na you by yourself talk last year say you sell your Nascon at a loss of 800k. All of a sudden, you want to lecture me on how I should have handled my holdings... BOMB DEY YOUR HEAD

That's a new one

Toluway:
Why would you want to be responding to this kind of irrelevant fights? Can't you just ignore and go on with your business on the forum?
No let people stress you too much na. This debacle is not for you, I think.

Thank you . I've freed the matter like yMycy advised

essentialone1:
*NGX HAS NOW REVIEWED MARKET INDICES, AMID ENTRIES & EXITS OF COMPANIES*

The Nigerian Exchange Ltd. (NGX) on Thursday announced the results of its full-year market index review for its indices. The Exchange also announced the entries and exits of some companies in the various indices. NGX, in a report, listed the affected indices as NGX 30; NGX Lotus Islamic; NGX Pension; NGX Pension Broad Index; Corporate Governance Index; Afrinvest Bank Value Index and Afrinvest Dividend Yield Index. Others are: Meristem Growth Index; Meristem Value Index; and the five Sectoral Indices of The Exchange – NGX Banking, NGX Insurance, NGX Industrial, NGX Consumer Goods and NGX Oil and Gas. The Exchange said the review had led to the entries and exits of some companies from several indices which took effect at the opening of the market on Thursday.

.......... long, trimming off please see post above from @essentialone1 ............

Commenting, Mr Jude Chiemeka, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO), NGX, reiterated that the Exchange continues to blaze the path to becoming Africa’s foremost Securities Exchange. Chiemeka said this would be achieved with innovation and product developments that deepen the market and boost liquidity, thus connecting Nigeria, Africa and the world.
Similarly, Mr Abimbola Babalola, Head, Trading and Products, NGX, noted that the indices are developed, managed and re-balanced 2 times in a year. According to him, this is to allow investors track market movements efficiently and manage their investment portfolios properly.

Thanks for sharing this, explains the price action of some companies the past several days/weeks; a lot of selling/buying of the companies exiting/entering the indices (Dangote Cement and Aradel as examples).

The rebalancing should be done once a year and not twice a year.

Biggest winner is Aradel Holdings Plc, new member of several indices!

Other winners:
IB now member of NGX 30 Index (slowly IB is coming out of the woods and moving up).
Transcorp Power Plc added to few indices
Oando Plc added to NGX Oil and Gas Index (I guess almost ready for prime time)

Dangote Cement removed from Afrinvest Dividend Yield Index

Total Nigeria Plc removed from NGX 30 Index I wonder why.

Not published were the criteria for exit/entry......it will be very interesting to know.

AngelSlay:
I’m usually a long term investor but I studied the market these past few days and decided to to some reshuffling to my portfolio. That is, Sell some and back into at some discounted prices. I was in shock when I discovered today that. I’ll try buying oando at 63.5N and these brokers are purchasing it at 65.6 N , when it went up to 69N I tried selling and they sold it at 65.5N because I was using market pricing instead of limit pricing (on Yochaa). I’m putting this out there because it’s very important. They did the same for all my purchases. They can’t cheat you when the stock is stable for example Aradel as there’s only 1 price for it. These are big margins. When I checked my broker’s statements from email I noticed that when you choose Limit price they actually buy it at the exact price . If you choose market pricing they can easily cheat you. By selling the stock to themselves at cheaper prices or buying at higher prices .its clear they are making profits off your trade. So it’s always important to use the limit price and set your own price. Let’s say a stock is 65.50 you can set limit price at 66.00 and you should be fine. If you choose market pricing they might actually buy it for you at 67.5 or even 68.00 big difference when you are doing volumes. I’m glad I learnt that today. We go again next week

They didn't cheat you though. When you use Market price, they will buy the available price at that moment.

Is there a way one can buy any of these indexes directly?
I see them on itrade but can't see the buy/sell option except their prices & other parameters.
Or is there any mutual index funds that mirrors these indexes like the NGX30?

I am familiar with Stanbic Equity Fund and other FMAN funds but i am not aware of any fund that tracks NGXINS or NGX Oil & Gas.

Anyone with relevant information can share it here. Thanks

TerraCota:
Thanks for sharing this, explains the price action of some companies the past several days/weeks; a lot of selling/buying of the companies exiting/entering the indices (Dangote Cement and Aradel as examples).

The rebalancing should be done once a year and not twice a year.

Biggest winner is Aradel Holdings Plc, new member of several indices!

Other winners:
IB now member of NGX 30 Index (slowly IB is coming out of the woods and moving up).
Transcorp Power Plc added to few indices
Oando Plc added to NGX Oil and Gas Index (I guess almost ready for prime time)

Dangote Cement removed from Afrinvest Dividend Yield Index

Total Nigeria Plc removed from NGX 30 Index I wonder why.

Not published were the criteria for exit/entry......it will be very interesting to know.

My bad

[quote author=KarlTom post=133763619][/quote]

elpaso007:
Is there a way one can buy any of these indexes directly?
I see them on itrade but can't see the buy/sell option except their prices & other parameters.
Or is there any mutual index funds that mirrors these indexes like the NGX30?

I am familiar with Stanbic Equity Fund and other FMAN funds but i am not aware of any fund that tracks NGXINS or NGX Oil & Gas.

Anyone with relevant information can share it here. Thanks

Even if you buy the ETF's they are not very liquid. Unles you hope to hold them for a long time