₦airaland Forum

Sunrisepebble:
It seems Aradel are suffering from Wale syndrome

Am looking for their financial, instead it's their promise to release it yesterday that I saw

KarlTom:
About 16 years ago, someone somewhere said something similar

Let's not be too sure of ourselves.
In recent history, bigger, better institutions have failed...

It is the euphoria

Raider76:
I don't think observing and pointing out governance lapses of a company amounts to discouraging others from buying its stock. People decide to buy stocks for different reasons, including governance issues. Infact, it is when you are a stockholder, genuinely interested in progress of the company, that you worry and point out problems that need fixing. I would like to believe that it is the constant criticisms by both stockholders and regulators that brought about the New Oando that @Bagwa pointed out.

Fixed!!

KarlTom:
About 16 years ago, someone somewhere said something similar

Let's not be too sure of ourselves.
In recent history, bigger, better institutions have failed...

They said that 16 years ago based on market sentiment, not based on logic, facts and figures

KarlTom:
About 16 years ago, someone somewhere said something similar

Let's not be too sure of ourselves.
In recent history, bigger, better institutions have failed...

16 years ago banks were not trading at these valuations

emmanuelewumi:
They said that 16 years ago based on market sentiment, not based on logic, facts and figures

I'm 2009 banks were not trading at these valuations. Valuations were much higher.

He is mistaking price with valuation

Exactly!
There's a possibility based on market sentiments.

@Nosa2 was speaking with 100% certainty...

emmanuelewumi:
They said that 16 years ago based on market sentiment, not based on logic, facts and figures

Ding

KarlTom:
Exactly!
There's a possibility based on market sentiments.

@Nosa2 was speaking with 100% certainty...

You don't seem to know the valuations Nigerian banks are trading at vs their historical valuations

nosa2:
You don't seem to know the valuations Nigerian banks are trading at vs their historical valuations

Are Nigerian banks cheap at current price, yes.
Are they trading at their lowest historical valuation?,this I think is debatable.

pluto09:
Are Nigerian banks cheap at current price, yes.
Are they trading at their lowest historical valuation?,this I think is debatable.

Debatable based on what you think or what you know?

I have been active in this market since 2003. My dad has been active since the early 80s. These valuations have not existed in all that time.

The largest bank in the country trading at a forward pe of less than 1?

I stand to be corrected but unless somebody comes at me with some actual numbers from another time period then I will stand by what I have said.

The circumstances that created this market will most likely not be repeated in our lifetime

Sin and I...

I get nervous when people speak with such certainty. All investing has downside risk. That's why I asked you to explain your valuation (of Access). Did you, for instance, exclude non-recurring FX gains? Include new shares?

nosa2:
You will not see these valuations again in your lifetime. You may see the price, due to stock splits etc, but to think you will see GTB trading at a pe of less than 2 again in the next 50-60, years is delusional

pluto09:
Are Nigerian banks cheap at current price, yes.
Are they trading at their lowest historical valuation?,this I think is debatable.

80s average PE was 6-12

90s 12-15

Early 2000s 12-18.

Source deep seek

Mr Market is already responding to Prof Wale's memo

KarlTom:
Exactly!
There's a possibility based on market sentiments.

@Nosa2 was speaking with 100% certainty...

Book value is a fact.


A stock with a return on equity of over 20% should not be selling below it's book value, then if we use a discount rate of 20%, it should sell at its book value

HesInMe:
I get nervous when people speak with such certainty. All investing has downside risk. That's why I asked you to explain your valuation (of Access). Did you, for instance, exclude non-recurring FX gains? Include new shares?

No need to get nervous, it's my money to lose.

To answer your question, yes I did maximum discounting for GTB and Zenith (since I'm actually invested in those). For access I haven't yet factored in the new shares in the calculation but discounted FX gains to zero

nosa2:
I'm 2009 banks were not trading at these valuations. Valuations were much higher.

He is mistaking price with valuation

Know the difference between price and value.


Know this and know peace as per stock market investment

emmanuelewumi:
Book value is a fact.


A stock with a return on equity of over 20% should not be selling below it's book value, then if we use a discount rate of 20%, it should sell at its book value

My brother the way I dey try raise money now ehen!!! Make people dey argue with facts on ground.

When you now factor in the growth the banks are experiencing, the thing dey make me wan scream

emmanuelewumi:
Book value is a fact.


A stock with a return on equity of over 20% should not be selling below it's book value, then if we use a discount rate of 20%, it should sell at its book value

Ahh for banks? Most of them had historically sold for less than 0.5 of BV right? Except for GT and Stanbic

Makanjuola89:
Mr Market is already responding to Prof Wale's memo

There are always ways to move the price of a stock.

The Access Bank I sold "too early" at N27.80 is now available to me at N26.65

nosa2:
Unless you needed the money, you should have held on.

At current price, book value for Access bank is 92.87

Price to book ratio is 0.3

Forward p.e is 1.68.

Once again, I think you sold way too early.

Make investment decisions based on valuations not price.

nosa2:
80s average PE was 6-12

90s 12-15

Early 2000s 12-18.

Source deep seek

You don quickly Key into this Chinese Ai thats roughling feathers

Sunrisepebble:
The Access Bank I sold "too early" at N27.80 is now available to me at N26.65

It may close higher. They need to bring in more suckers for the dump
February is a long month

Agbalowomeri:
Ahh for banks? Most of them had historically sold for less than 0.5 of BV right? Except for GT and Stanbic

They have been dirt cheap for the past 6 years, it was in 2006 that Price Book Value of 3 and above was the norm for them

jonnysessy:
There are always ways to move the price of a stock.

People really want to benefit from the share redistribution exercise, which has been guesstimated to be 1 for 2.
That should naturally move the price in any market, otherwise nothing else would.

I think The issue with banks historically trading below BV is CBN regulation + inflation

Regulations comes in per second per second every year..
If it's not CRR reduction, it's interest rate, it's retained earnings, it's fine for violations,
It's Forex limitations,etc. These changes are strong enough that affects the balance sheet.
Within the regulatory period, investors are cautious.

Agbalowomeri:
It may close higher. They need to bring in more suckers for the dump
February is a long month

I think last year bear was as a result of slow recovery to Forex loses across board and banks not allowed to pay full year dividend from forex.

May not be like that this year.
Bear might be limited to individual companies performances.

This is a classic COMPENSATION money.

Cash for 500k units @ ½ SP (₦35) will give ₦17.5m

mikeapollo:
People really want to benefit from the share redistribution exercise, which has been guesstimated to be 1 for 2.
That should naturally move the price in any market, otherwise nothing else would.

nosa2:
I'm 2009 banks were not trading at these valuations. Valuations were much higher.

He is mistaking price with valuation

Uuuhmmm!!!
Current banking valuations being historically low seem reasonable, but a bank like ACCESS has potential to dip low with current price hovering in the sellers' region. It might be better to align valuation with price for more accurate results.

nosa2:
I don't see anything special in the fundamentals of Sterling Bank. Abeg share the reasoning behind your recommendation

Perhaps he gets lot of units he want to dump!