₦airaland Forum

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zendi:
If you're selling a product that has unlimited demand and unlimited supply (petrol), then you will make unlimited money unless you have a rougue on the Cowboy Desk.

Hope you ain't calling WALE?

megawealth01:
Hope you ain't calling WALE?

My post was about Eterna, and I'm not calling Eterna cowboy a rougue (yet).

Sunrisepebble raised a very strong point—read his submission below—but none of the people who posted in Oando's defense cared to address it. I saw a lot of half-baked attempts, with some outright wishful thinking.

Oando gained over 300 billion from forex gains, which is not a constant, and spent over 200 billion on operating costs (excluding COGS), ending with about 60 billion in profit. (I'm quoting from memory, and you can verify my numbers.) His point is very valid: operating costs are high. Imagine if there had been no 300 billion windfall—the result would have been negative.

I expected reasonable defenses, such as an explanation that the high operating costs might be due to merger with NAOC and temporary or other factors. Instead, what I found here was very disappointing.

Sunrisepebble:
My opinion on this company changes on the daily. Note I own Oando but purely for speculative purposes. The more you look the less you see. The financials are really not good at all. It is a serious loss making business. The FY profit is largely due to the huge FX gain in Q1 and tax credits in the subsequent quarters. Finance costs are wiping away all the operating income. The business could easily make a loss in this Q1

Let me list the various defenses presented here and highlight how nonsensical some of them are:

mikeapollo:
Yes, what you said is largely true.
They just need to raise some equity funds to eliminate or significantly reduce the finance costs.

The main factor attracting investors is the quantum of Oando's crude oil reserves, over 1 billion barrels.
Even at 50% recoverability and conservative estimates of USD50 per barrel and N1500/$, that should give N37.5 trillion naira which is in far excess of their liabilities and operating costs over the foreseeable future.
Hence, in the worst-case scenario, even if Oando should go under today and is to be acquired by another company today, the value per share cannot be less than N1000!

But I am not sure if oil companies are allowed to revalue their reserves and recognize the revised values in their books

This person is busy calculating $50 per barrel but has completely ignored the costs and financing involved in lifting the barrels—totally childish.

yMcy56:
Panic retailers selling.....
More opportunities to load in my opinion.

Someone said the remaining shares for distribution might ikely not come as bonus again after June qualification.
It may come as dividend instead.......

I still see this selloff as opportunity to load more, for those who still have spare funds.......and of course, bargainers are loading.
The quantities on offer aren't that much.

I still don't see how OANDO and ETERNA will be trading at similar or closer value...

This person is comparing two companies with different ordinary share structures, which is worse than wishful thinking. This is the same self acclaimed in-house prefect who is quick to call out derailers yet falls short themselves.

Streetinvestor2:
Nigeria has been officially confirmed by opec to have met her approved production. Though the government claims they are doing beyond that and the budget is based on over 2M barrel for 2025.The government has target of 4 M by 20230.
And street sense does not tell you oando will beat many stocks here in appreciation in future.
God give me money to be increasing my afolabi units. Who are the guys increasing this oil production maybe na farmers into the business...lol.

Just checked Market for today and surprised sugar is above #40. We wait to see what is coming soon

Another one failed to address the elephant in the room—what is the point of increasing revenue if costs are rising even faster?

At the very least, I expected someone to propose a partial solution to this concerning issue or simply deny that the problem exists.

Emir01:
If you like hate both, it's your right. Hate don't win an election. Will Tinubu win 2027 election? The answer is YES. Sycophants, hypocrites and ethnic bias voters will solidify the vote come 2027, we respect them alot. Buy Dangote Sugar, OANDO and, MTNN guys.

He has nothing to show for the one he grabbed and ran away beside corruption,waste,hunger and poverty. The Egyptian we see today we shall see no more in 2027.It is finished like the guy told the formal Ghana president
I will still buy more oando but not because of T pain

zendi:
If you're selling a product that has unlimited demand and unlimited supply (petrol), then you will make unlimited money unless you have a rougue on the Cowboy Desk.

True.
I was merely replying to a context.---->
Why Pikin and im Papa be like age mates

Sunrisepebble:
Sounds good, now the problem is raising the money

Walahi onado will not come to market to raise any fund.
Why didn't wale just look for new investor to take up this shares being redistributed and use the fund to reduce the debt.whr did all that money for flexing at the yr end come from.The money from sell of fuel station was never distributed but was invested back into the business
From wale body language,the money go come from improved production and efficiency in cost management.

ositadima1:
At the very least, I expected someone to propose a partial solution to this concerning issue or simply deny that the problem exists.

Answer: AI

AI is gonna help in drilling and reduce huge extraction cost.
Source: Wale

Sunrisepebble:
Sounds good, now the problem is raising the money

I will contribute 5k.

ositadima1:
Sunrisepebble raised a very strong point—read his submission below—but none of the people who posted in Oando's defense cared to address it. I saw a lot of half-baked attempts, with some outright wishful thinking.

Oando gained over 300 billion from forex gains, which is not a constant, and spent over 200 billion on operating costs (excluding COGS), ending with about 60 billion in profit. (I'm quoting from memory, and you can verify my numbers.) His point is very valid: operating costs are high. Imagine if there had been no 300 billion windfall—the result would have been negative.

I expected reasonable defenses, such as an explanation that the high operating costs might be due to merger with NAOC and temporary or other factors. Instead, what I found here was very disappointing.




Let me list the various defenses presented here and highlight how nonsensical some of them are:



This person is busy calculating $50 per barrel but has completely ignored the costs and financing involved in lifting the barrels—totally childish.



This person is comparing two companies with different ordinary share structures, which is worse than wishful thinking. This is the same self acclaimed in-house prefect who is quick to call out derailers yet falls short themselves.



Another one failed to address the elephant in the room—what is the point of increasing revenue if costs are rising even faster?

At the very least, I expected someone to propose a partial solution to this concerning issue or simply deny that the problem exists.

Did you read wale statement concerning cost going forward. He attributed high cost of production due to outdated instruments used in drilling which they are bringing advance
technology and said it was about to change. Then he talked about how to improve in efficiency in other cost related issues.
So why should I still be bothered about that when the ceo had responded to the matter after results.
I am interested in thr production now doubling against the one in 2024 results. Are you saying if production doubles the impact will not be significant in PAT.

OandO 😎

. said it before that oando wanted to raise fund with bond but bad rating stopped them .it is still in process .patient dog will eat fat bone

I went through the historical data of Nigeria exchange rate regime n I discovered the biggest madness was between 1986-1998, I also discovered all the regime except the current one defended naira which clearly showed it doesn't work except during Jonathan regime when per barrel of crude was 100 dollars.

I think its common sense for government to stop following the same process that yielded no meaningful outcome.

For example, where is the sense in government sponsoring few Nigerian schooling abroad or go on medical trips that add nothing to Nigeria GDP via currency defense.

I think we are bound to see a better result from floating of naira policy in the medium to long term.

ositadima1:
Sunrisepebble raised a very strong point—read his submission below—but none of the people who posted in Oando's defense cared to address it. I saw a lot of half-baked attempts, with some outright wishful thinking.

Oando gained over 300 billion from forex gains, which is not a constant, and spent over 200 billion on operating costs (excluding COGS), ending with about 60 billion in profit. (I'm quoting from memory, and you can verify my numbers.) His point is very valid: operating costs are high. Imagine if there had been no 300 billion windfall—the result would have been negative.

I expected reasonable defenses, such as an explanation that the high operating costs might be due to merger with NAOC and temporary or other factors. Instead, what I found here was very disappointing.




Let me list the various defenses presented here and highlight how nonsensical some of them are:



This person is busy calculating $50 per barrel but has completely ignored the costs and financing involved in lifting the barrels—totally childish.



This person is comparing two companies with different ordinary share structures, which is worse than wishful thinking. This is the same self acclaimed in-house prefect who is quick to call out derailers yet falls short themselves.



Another one failed to address the elephant in the room—what is the point of increasing revenue if costs are rising even faster?

At the very least, I expected someone to propose a partial solution to this concerning issue or simply deny that the problem exists.

Apologies.
I didn't take that into consideration.
Let me go check their last report to make a more informed decision

Streetinvestor2:
Walahi onado will not come to market to raise any fund.
Why didn't wale just look for new investor to take up this shares being redistributed and use the fund to reduce the debt.whr did all that money for flexing at the yr end come from.The money from sell of fuel station was never distributed but was invested back into the business
From wale body language,the money go come from improved production and efficiency in cost management.

The funny thing is that Wale is not even acting as if Oando has money problem. He went to the sideline of World Economic Forum to brag that Oando has one billion barrel s of crude oil underground.
He is looking to buy (I know by International financing) a $15b Refinery in Trinidad. And I'm not hearing a lot of noise about money raising.

I don't know, maybe the man has a secret solution for Oando money problems.

Do you imagine that oil prospecting companies change their capital equipment and methods overnight? This will take years and millions in new investments.

People: Stop with the sycophancy. The investment case for this dud isn't in the empty promises, the gimmicky accounting, and the financial engineering. It's the Tinubu connection.

Streetinvestor2:
So why should I still be bothered about (the high cost of production due to outdated instruments used in drilling) when the ceo had responded to the matter (saying they are bringing advance technology).

zendi:
The funny thing is that Wale is not even acting as if Oando has money problem. He went to the sideline of World Economic Forum to brag that Oando has one billion barrel s of crude oil underground.
He is looking to buy (I know by International financing) a $15b Refinery in Trinidad. And I'm not hearing a lot of noise about money raising.

I don't know, maybe the man has a secret solution for Oando money problems.

My guy na just street sense I dey use.If wale dey reason say he get money wahala. Walahi he for no even mention 4B units of shares to minority shareholders. He will only tell them preference new investors has take over 4B units from bad debtors and the funds will be reinvested in oando. And every one go clsp hand tell him good decision and weldon. And ends thr abi you wan go court. He could sell that 4B plus units at a premium join.
Wale target na that 1Billion barrel to pay back any debt.It will only take some time.
He fit even go collect more loan to buy that refinery. Wale no get plan to raise fund via new listing....my opinion from street sense.
Why will i be dashing you guys more shares if I am planning to dilute the Os

HesInMe:
Do you imagine that oil prospecting companies change their capital equipment and methods overnight? This will take years and millions in new investments.

People: Stop with the sycophancy. The investment case for this dud isn't in the empty promises, the gimmicky accounting, and the financial engineering. It's the Tinubu connection.

changing technology in drilling oil is not rocket science. It can be done within reasonable time.Musk has been able to break record in his feild within reasonable time.This is how some people felt dangota refinery capacity is not possible with latest technology and train size..

It was not TPain connection that brought 4T revenue in that result. Other companies in that sector made good revenue and better profits .
Do you guys think the bank that financed this second acquisition don't know what to do with money. They did not do risk assessment before bringing out such cash..
This is why I don't do football. Everyone out thr feels he knows or can do better than the coach when on the sideline.

thebargainhunte:
DS result might land next week and I am not anticipating a good one.

Summary: Tsunami is about to strike the shoreline...

ositadima1:
Sunrisepebble raised a very strong point—read his submission below—but none of the people who posted in Oando's defense cared to address it. I saw a lot of half-baked attempts, with some outright wishful thinking.

Oando gained over 300 billion from forex gains, which is not a constant, and spent over 200 billion on operating costs (excluding COGS), ending with about 60 billion in profit. (I'm quoting from memory, and you can verify my numbers.) His point is very valid: operating costs are high. Imagine if there had been no 300 billion windfall—the result would have been negative.

I expected reasonable defenses, such as an explanation that the high operating costs might be due to merger with NAOC and temporary or other factors. Instead, what I found here was very disappointing.




Let me list the various defenses presented here and highlight how nonsensical some of them are:



This person is busy calculating $50 per barrel but has completely ignored the costs and financing involved in lifting the barrels—totally childish.



This person is comparing two companies with different ordinary share structures, which is worse than wishful thinking. This is the same self acclaimed in-house prefect who is quick to call out derailers yet falls short themselves.



Another one failed to address the elephant in the room—what is the point of increasing revenue if costs are rising even faster?

At the very least, I expected someone to propose a partial solution to this concerning issue or simply deny that the problem exists.

My dear, my reference to $50 per barrel and 50% recoverability of the 1billion crude reserves is only to put a very conservative value on Oando in the worst case scenario of outright liquidation and acquisition by another company.
We all know crude oil is about $70 per barrel currently but I used only $50.
If you disagree, you can do so with your superior facts or calculations.

But why say such opinion is childish? Na wa ooo for you people wey go school oooo!

You even say some opinions of colleagues on the Oando issue are nonsensical?
Hmmmm!

zendi:
The funny thing is that Wale is not even acting as if Oando has money problem. He went to the sideline of World Economic Forum to brag that Oando has one billion barrel s of crude oil underground.
He is looking to buy (I know by International financing) a $15b Refinery in Trinidad. And I'm not hearing a lot of noise about money raising.

I don't know, maybe the man has a secret solution for Oando money problems.

He is trying to put Oando in good light so he can secure good deals when raising funds. If he gives the bad signals, he won't get good deals from creditors and/or investors .

zendi:
So where now is Eterna's high cost of forex as an official DangRef outlet?
With DangRef, Eterna is guaranteed unfailing and unlimited supply of petrol.
And DangRef itself is guaranteed unlimited supply of crude in the age of Trump.

I am not sure of the level of Eterna's exposure to forex. But I now they would be affected by the general high inflation in the economy. Again, they may be importing equipment from abroad, hence exposed to payables in foregn currency so forex losses would also hit their income.

I prefer to be a more sceptical investor. Oil drilling is an old business. Invoking Musk will not change that. You can't change the infrastructure overnight just because Wale says AI.

And you should learn about project finance. Banks can lend secure funding to a meritorious project even if the finances of the sponsor company cause indigestion. Very common practice in oil and gas.

Streetinvestor2:
changing technology in drilling oil is not rocket science. It can be done within reasonable time.Musk has been able to break record in his feild within reasonable time.This is how some people felt dangota refinery capacity is not possible with latest technology and train size..

It was not TPain connection that brought 4T revenue in that result. Other companies in that sector made good revenue and better profits .
Do you guys think the bank that financed this second acquisition don't know what to do with money. They did not do risk assessment before bringing out such cash..
This is why I don't do football. Everyone out thr feels he knows or can do better than the coach when on the sideline.

It will be very unpatriotic to invest $15b in a foreign refinery at this time when Nigerian private refining industry is just taking off. I know that business should not be done on sentiment. But as a Nigerian I will hate to see that happen.

Besides, in the event that that refimery in Trinidad is bought by a compny operating in the upstream of the Nigerian oil operations, will definitely be run with Nigerian crude, at the expense of Nigerian refiners and local jobs. The refined products will then be imported back to compete with the local refined ones in the name of encouraging competition.

zendi:
The funny thing is that Wale is not even acting as if Oando has money problem. He went to the sideline of World Economic Forum to brag that Oando has one billion barrel s of crude oil underground.
He is looking to buy (I know by International financing) a $15b Refinery in Trinidad. And I'm not hearing a lot of noise about money raising.

I don't know, maybe the man has a secret solution for Oando money problems.

Yemy3m:
. said it before that oando wanted to raise fund with bond but bad rating stopped them .it is still in process .patient dog will eat fat bone

Maybe the bad rating is there for a reason.

zendi:
If you're selling a product that has unlimited demand (petrol, diesel etc) and unlimited supply (Dangote Refinery), then you will make unlimited money unless you have a rougue on the Cowboy Desk.

I'm re-posting this, slightly modified to make my meaning clearer, that Eterna dares not report any nonsense loss henceforth.

nosa2:
Maybe the bad rating is there for a reason.

Na the handwork of village people.

Raider76:
It will be very unpatriotic to invest $15b in a foreign refinery at this time when Nigerian private refining industry is just taking off. I know that business should not be done on sentiment. But as a Nigerian I will hate to see that happen.

Besides, in the event that that refimery in Trinidad is bought by a compny operating in the upstream of the Nigerian oil operations, will definitely be run with Nigerian crude, at the expense of Nigerian refiners and local jobs. The refined products will then be imported back to compete with the local refined ones in the name of encouraging competition.

If he is given refinery now una go shout JAGABAN is buying up NAIJA through proxies... In as much I don't want to say certain things in public but Wale should be let to do what will improve the coy but cowboi na cowboi any day

zendi:
The funny thing is that Wale is not even acting as if Oando has money problem. He went to the sideline of World Economic Forum to brag that Oando has one billion barrel s of crude oil underground.
He is looking to buy (I know by International financing) a $15b Refinery in Trinidad. And I'm not hearing a lot of noise about money raising.

I don't know, maybe the man has a secret solution for Oando money problems.

The $15b price tag for Trinidad Refinery sounds both scary and crazy.
It cannot be true.

I read it somewhere but cannot find that source now to post it here. Therefore I hereby renounce and retract and outright disown that part of my post.
I have no idea how much is Trinidad Refinery.

I would have simply deleted the post but it has been widely quoted.

Dangote built a brand new edifice on home soil for $20b.
Trinidad is a decrepit "belgium" refinery that will require pouring in even more money
to refurbish, and I hereby distance my name from such story.

He doesn't have to be "given" any of the old NNPC refineries. He can build a new one from scratch. Alhaji did the same thing after he was denied buying those refineries. And see where he is now. It is not also what is good for a company, but the Nation. That is where the sacrifice for patriotism comes in. In the end it is not the money you made for yourself and your family that people remember you by, but what you did to your fellow men and nation.

megawealth01:
If he is given refinery now una go shout JAGABAN is buying up NAIJA through proxies... In as much I don't want to say certain things in public but Wale should be let to do what will improve the coy but cowboi na cowboi any day

I think they already made it clear that they are not coming to the stock market to raise money through equity. I think people should just be patient and watch how it all unfolds. Those who need to sell should sell but what I know is that with the aggressive drive by the current FG for oil production, a company as crucial as OANDO is not going down!

zendi:
The funny thing is that Wale is not even acting as if Oando has money problem. He went to the sideline of World Economic Forum to brag that Oando has one billion barrel s of crude oil underground.
He is looking to buy (I know by International financing) a $15b Refinery in Trinidad. And I'm not hearing a lot of noise about money raising.

I don't know, maybe the man has a secret solution for Oando money problems.

You're still quoting this post , even after I've recanted something in it?

Abeg oo