₦airaland Forum

RodgersAkpafu:
They have fixed the issue
That was the case earlier this year, and I had to "paara" for them sometime in February

But they have repented and fixed the bug
At least in my own experience.

Agbalowomeri:
Yes just be ready for Wale's type forward looking statements forever

Mankind2024:
@ Pa Emmanuel,
You are free to submit your views on Ellah Lake. I follow the simplicity of investment. The motivation for drafting this letter was to convey to Mr Chuka Mordi that we are not naive. How could an integrated farm declare N18M revenue without specifying the source?
In my personal income filing, the taxman always seeks to understand how I arrived at profit and loss. I would have tolerated the non-transparent report if Chuka Mordi had highlighted revenue from specific sources like Telluria farm acquisition, piggery, fishery, cassava, soya beans, and rice plantation. Instead, 50% of the report focused on audio Biological and goodwill assets, which I consider intangible assets. He emphasised on ongoing new private placement without addressing our expectation on palm oil production which he previously promised would begin in Q1 2025.

Notably, financial reports from Okomu Oil and Presco don't emphasise goodwill assets like this.
The financial report lacks transparency. My concern isn't driven by capital erosion, as my 2.5M shares in Ellah Lake constitute less than 0.2% of my NGX portfolio. I'm willing to write it off until Chuka Mordi delists his company.

My findings suggest Chuka Mordi has connections with CBO Capital, Telluria Farm, and Oko Lake. He previously worked with FCMB and Union Dicon Salt. It appears he's on a mission to undermine Ellah Lake's fishery legacy, similar to his actions at Union Dicon Salt.
https://businessday.ng/interview/article/chuka-mordi-on-ellah-lakes-5-year-plan-to-becoming-a-billion-dollar-company/

https://businessday.ng/companies/article/ellah-lakes-says-on-path-of-shareholder-value-creation/

emmanuelewumi:
I have found out that people are very emotional about the stock, so I will respect myself and not write about the stock

KarlTom:
Seems we're now on breastville 🤔

emmaodet:
Have gone through their financial report quickly and noticed they burn roughly 400m per quarter in free cash flow.
200m plus to operate the business (operating cash flow) and another roughly 200m in capital expenditure.
Plus or minus, they will be using 1b per year to run the farm pending when it will start generating meaningful revenue.
current OS is 3.86b

thebargainhunte:
When is Oando going to distribute our shares to us? This month is about to end yet no share redistribution insight

megawealth01:
AGM DATE: June 19, NPF MFB (AGM) at Hajia Maryam M.D Abubakar Power Secretariat and Multipurpose Hall, Oduduwa Street (Mopol 20), Ikeja, Lagos......11am. Prop Div.....15k, PD....June 19, QD.....May 28, CDR.....May 29-30. Reg; Registrar: Cardinalstone

Locotrader:
You have a cash of 23m at the moment and you want me to believe you are starting production in 2025.
Anyway I sense raising of additional funds here.

If this talk can bring good fortunes for Ellah shareholders,my brother cash is always loaded in my stock account.

Allow us to see the truth in Ellah now.The more we discuss about Ellah,the better for you and other shareholders

thebargainhunte:
When is Oando going to distribute our shares to us? This month is about to end yet no share redistribution insight

Locotrader:
Imagine Loco that is known for buying junk stocks as supposed by some of our members see Ellah and run away.

At least you can see a fresh breast in all Loco's stock.

As beautiful as Ellah and very mature,where is her breast?

Omooloriredade:
Post is not to convince anyone to invest. Just my opinion.

I strive to understand the business or operations of a company before I buy their stock.

You know how Dangote has a big refinery but relies on others for the feedstock (crude)? Imagine if Dangote has producing fields that could provide the feedstock for his refinery. Procurement costs will probably be lower and operations will be much more efficient leading to improved margins in the refinery business (that is, Aradel on steroids).

Now think of Presco and Okomu as refineries with producing fields. They operate a refinery (CPO mill) but also own farms that supply the feedstock (Fresh Fruit Bunches). Also, as a matter of fact, they rely on local farmers for supplementary feedstock supply too. Note this point as I'll come back to it later.

Traditionally, you start with the farm which takes time to mature. In the mean time, you build your refinery (CPO mill) and infrastructure.
Ellah Lakes is doing all of these. They are due to complete their refinery 9CPO mill) Q1 CY25 according to management. I must acknowledge this milestone should have been achieved last year.....so it's crucial they don't miss this target again. Ellah Lakes does not need to wait for fruits to mature to start producing palm oil. Once the refinery is completed, they will source the feedstock (FFBs) from local farmers.

Remember my Dangote refinery analogy? So to assume they won't generate any revenue for another 5 to 8 years just demonstrates a lack of understanding of the industry. It's not about when they reach peak production as such. It's about firing up the CPO mill, securing supply of FFBs from local farmers and it's happy days for everyone.

By the way, Ellah Lakes sold N780k worth of Palm fruits as at FYE 24. You can expect sales to increase from here on but hopefully not from selling off FFBs that should otherwise be processed if CPO mill was completed. Already at N249k (Q1 25) from sales of Palm fruits only. Management intends to commence Oil production in H1 25 which is already upon us. CPO mill is optimally positioned where the farms are concentrated.

Personally, I focus on the operations that drive the numbers others want to see. So disregarding other lines of production (Piggery and other cash crops but follow the money on that Piggery o). This is what operations would look like going forward:

> Complete CPO mill (criticial milestone)
> Negotiate and secure supply of FFBs from local farmers (Competitive but crucial to success and can be done before previous step).
> No need to sell your own FFBs either. They can now maximise value from processing them.
> Process FFBs into Palm oil
> Commence sales of Palm oil
> Sell off Palm Kernel fruits
> Acquire Palm kernel mill and start palm kernel oil production and cake etc
> Commence sales of Palm kernel oil etc
> Crops mature and produce feedstock for the mill leading to increased margins.
> Expand milling capacity and acquire more acreage for long term growth.

Why is there sudden increased trading activity? My theory is that the market is positioning to see if Management's target will be achieved. Forecast was for CPO mill commissioning by Jan - Feb 2025, then production commences immediately after.

Hey! Please note that I am not an Agric expert neither am I an investment advisor.

zendi:
I want to position for tranche 2. Do you remember when it's due? Though it's shocking to hear thAt tranche 1 is yet to be credited.

Harvestock01:
QD June 30

megawealth01:
Even Wale might not have answers to this question?

zendi:
Qualification date June 30, for Oando tranche 2.

Okay, thanks.

HesInMe:
Ol' boy. Dis kain financial report.

Revenue of 2Q ending Jan 2025 is much larger than for the year to Jan 2025. Cash flow reported only for period till July 2024 vs. 2023 (typo?).

And I thought Chams was bad. After seeing Ellah, I owe Chams an apology.

Repeat after me: There is fire on the mountain...

Locotrader:
Our review on Ellah lakes will go viral this weekend.
I believe their will be press lease next week by the mgt.
This is the only way we can help ourselves not praising a company you don't know the plans they have for shareholders and shareholders are holding unto palm trees and fruits as okomu and presco are known for that.

Why is okomu and presco not practicing digital Agriculture

Audio and real are not same.Let them release corporate announcements on their farms let's review and know our stand on it.

One of the cheapest stock tempting investors at the floor now is Ellah lakes but traders are the one to use it and dump while my brother Nosa is having an investment mind.

emmaodet:
Have gone through their financial report quickly and noticed they burn roughly 400m per quarter in free cash flow.
200m plus to operate the business (operating cash flow) and another roughly 200m in capital expenditure.
Plus or minus, they will be using 1b per year to run the farm pending when it will start generating meaningful revenue.
current OS is 3.86b
Cash at hand as at 31st jan, 2025 was 23m
current assets is about 25b that can be converted to cash to run the biz within a year.
Given it will take another 3 years before Ellah lake will be generating enough revenue to finance itself,
They may likely have to raise atleast 3b more to do that PROVIDED they couldn't convert their current assets to cash to do that.
That will dilute the shares about 100% more, probably seeing the price go down to #1.5/shares before experiencing price appreciation we are anticipating.
We will see how the management run the biz on quarterly basis

thebargainhunte:
Is there hope in Oando? It seems you are still buying it.

cocolacec:
Conoil

thebargainhunte:
https://guardian.ng/business-services/maritime/nnpc-diversifies-as-stena-bulk-caverton-unite-to-birth-unity-shipping/
Our CAVERTON

Bigdeal01:
I guess this has been in the works for a long time. Let's see how this impacts Caverton's business.

thebargainhunte:
Is there hope in Oando? It seems you are still buying it.

Locotrader:
Be careful in quoting me on breast so you don't get banned

crownprince2017:
For the sake of people who have tried so hard to be objective on ellahlakes, based on my friend seen n confirmed, ellahlakes 75-80% of ellahlakes palm are at fruiting level.

This doesn't mean you should buy hold or sell.

Mind you the visitation was very recent.


Happy weekend.