₦airaland Forum

KarlTom:
When we add the Petrochemicals and Fertilizer, the effect will enter full swing...

I swear. Some underestimate the benefits of this refinery because they expect it to bring prices down or improve the exchange rate.
I have been saying it that Dangote refinery may not massively boost the exchange rate because of low margins in the refining industry (whether he imports crude or buys in naira from Nigeria) but the chain effect on the economy (especially the petrochemicals), the jobs and energy security it provides and would provide at full capacity is priceless.

Sunrisepebble:
I was reading it while half asleep.
It’s for banks under forbearance. Who are they though ?

How do you know they are excluded
If no dividend from banks.I am out of banks.That is the only sector I buy because of dividend.

Agbalowomeri:
CBN should have mentioned them

Banks will generally tank next week, irrespective. That's why they will remain underpriced. Random unexpected policy somersault. Seems the CBN has an agenda against shareholders

It looks it is now a crime to invest in banks by cbn new standards. It looks the guy at cbn has issues to settle with bank ceos

What I’m hearing is that GT for sure are clear.

Streetinvestor2:
How do you know they are excluded
If no dividend from banks.I am out of banks.That is the only sector I buy because of dividend.

Sunrisepebble:
You’re thinking just like me. Was looking to load for some of the banks.
Apparently it will affect some of the FUGAZ because they have breached single obligation limits to Dangote. That’s what I’ve heard from someone

A lot of Nigerian banks are currently dealing with poor asset quality—many of the loans on their books aren’t performing well, and capital buffers are thin. At the same time, the Federal Government is reducing local debt issuance and shifting towards foreign borrowing to fund the budget deficit and ease pressure on local interest rates.

As local yields fall, bonds with higher coupon rates will become more valuable, so some banks may record bond revaluation gains. But that’s just paper profit—it doesn’t solve the real issues with bad loans or weak capital.

Personally, I tend to avoid over-regulated industries like banking, especially in markets where fraud and creative accounting are still too common. When I but it at 0.30 to 0.5 of book value

Sunrisepebble:
What I’m hearing is that GT for sure are clear.

GT, Zenith, and UBA are very strong banks fundamentally. I doubt they have these issues.

GeneralDae:
I swear. Some underestimate the benefits of this refinery because they expect it to bring prices down or improve the exchange rate.
I have been saying it that Dangote refinery may not massively boost the exchange rate because of low margins in the refining industry (whether he imports crude or buys in naira from Nigeria) but the chain effect on the economy (especially the petrochemicals), the jobs and energy security it provides and would provide at full capacity is priceless.

Can you truly separate the economy from the exchange rate when the exchange rate is a floating one? A floating exchange rate is primarily driven by supply and demand: if a country imports more than it exports, it will require more foreign currency, and vice versa.
If current statistics are accurate, Nigeria has started to experience a trade surplus, mostly due to reduced dependence on imported refined products. This should eventually be reflected in the exchange rate.

The same principle applies to stocks—greater demand drives prices higher, while lower demand pushes prices down. There’s no mystery in that, and I don't see why a floating exchange rates should be any different.

Zenith, not sure. It could be the reason why they didn’t pay out a lot for FY24

GeneralDae:
GT, Zenith, and UBA are very strong banks fundamentally. I doubt they have these issues.

ositadima1:
Can you truly separate the economy from the exchange rate when the exchange rate is a floating one? A floating exchange rate is primarily driven by supply and demand: if a country imports more than it exports, it will require more foreign currency, and vice versa.
If current statistics are accurate, Nigeria has started to experience a trade surplus, mostly due to reduced dependence on imported refined products. This should eventually be reflected in the exchange rate.

The same principle applies to stocks—greater demand drives prices higher, while lower demand pushes prices down. There’s no mystery in that, and I don't see why a floating exchange rates should be any different.

This is not the first time we are having trade surpluses. I think we have always had trade surpluses especially when oil prices are high.

The problem is that 80% of our exports are from oil.

Also, the huge budget deficits we have been having for over a decade took another dimension after COVID. The APC ideology of spending your way out of trouble caused this problem especially after COVID in 2020.

The printing by the CBN was then on another level and we grew by 3.65% in 2021 and then printed even more in 2022 and 2023 (including 3.5 trillion naira printing by BAT in 2023) to help the budget and only 2024 was different. This is the major problem with the naira today

Trade surpluses do not solve this easily except the non crude oil exports which have started rising, rises significantly to offset this or we increase our revenue significantly or we cut spending (which is usually harder for Governments to do).

GeneralDae:
This is not the first time we are having trade surpluses. I think we’ve always had trade surpluses especially when oil prices are high. The problem is that 80% of our exports are from oil.
Also, the huge budget deficits we’ve been having for over a decade took another dimension after COVID. The APC ideology of spending your way out of trouble caused this problem especially after COVID in 2020.

The printing by the CBN was then on another level and we grew by 3.65% in 2021 and then printed even more in 2022 and 2023 (including 3.5 trillion naira printing by BAT in 2023) to help the budget and only 2024 was different. This is the major problem with the naira today

Trade surpluses do not solve this easily except the non crude oil exports which have started rising, rises significantly to offset this or we increase our revenue significantly or we cut spending (which is usually harder for Governments to do).

What exactly is your argument here? What is a trade surplus? Whether it's crude oil or palm oil, when you earn more than you spend, that’s a surplus. If you earn more than you spend as a country, you require less foreign currency, and as a result, your exchange rate improves.

I don’t understand your roundabout argument.

ositadima1:
What exactly is your argument here? What is a trade surplus? Whether it's crude oil or palm oil, when you earn more than you spend, that’s a surplus. If you earn more than you spend as a country, you require less foreign currency, and as a result, your exchange rate improves.

I don’t understand your roundabout argument.

Because most of this surplus is from crude oil and associated gases. We do not receive all the oil we export rather at least 50% are repatriated immediately. All of it still shows in the surplus but it means nada.

Agbalowomeri:
CBN should have mentioned them

Banks will generally tank next week, irrespective. That's why they will remain underpriced. Random unexpected policy somersault. Seems the CBN has an agenda against shareholders

Will this also affect Microfinance Banks?

I like the fact that nobody is mentioning Caverton and MTN, Neimeth etc. They are just slowly inching up. No noise. No debate. No emotions.
Looks like we attach too much emotion to certain stocks. Oando, Ellah Lakes this and that. If you are buying, buy. If are selling, sell. Market will always do its thing.

GeneralDae:
Because most of this surplus is from crude oil and associated gases. We do not receive all the oil we export rather at least 50% are repatriated immediately. All of it still shows in the surplus but it means nada.

I don't think it's "nada." You used to spend 1,000 naira on item B, and now you're spending only 200 naira on the same item. Not only that, you're now selling that same item you used to spend money on and earning extra income from it. How exactly is that your "nada"?

ositadima1:
I don't think it's "nada." You used to spend 1,000 naira on item B, and now you're spending only 200 naira on the same item. Not only that, you're now selling that same item you used to spend money on and earning extra income from it. How exactly is that your "nada"?

The difference is little for now compared to what crude oil exports can give. You can check statisense on twitter to see it. Crude oil exports also declined due to lower prices.
Remember also that debt servicing of our foreign loans are higher now compared to what they were in 2021 and 2022 due to global issues and several other factors.

I hawked the bolded tirelessly when it was at 170, sold at 256, gave alert to when I bought it back again between 220 and 240. There was a big seller around N280 in May, once they had exhausted their holdings it started rising.
Currently sitting on 400k units at 236 average cost not sure whether I should sell since it’s nearing my price target or wait till the South African parent does their offer for sale at discount to market to add more

Bigdeal01:
I like the fact that nobody is mentioning Caverton and MTN, Neimeth etc. They are just slowly inching up. No noise. No debate. No emotions.
Looks like we attach too much emotion to certain stocks. Oando, Ellah Lakes this and that. If you are buying, buy. If are selling, sell. Market will always do its thing.

Bigdeal01:
I like the fact that nobody is mentioning Caverton and MTN, Neimeth etc. They are just slowly inching up. No noise. No debate. No emotions.
Looks like we attach too much emotion to certain stocks. Oando, Ellah Lakes this and that. If you are buying, buy. If are selling, sell. Market will always do its thing.

UBA also inching up..................................

Cardoso is about to send it back to the village

SonofElElyonRet:
UBA also inching up..................................

Portfolio Summary.
Afriprud is due to bonus shares expected to be added.

From the attached pictures, the market cap of nigeria stock market is twice that of total 8 francophone west african countries (ivory coast, mali, burkina faso etc)
So the market cap of companies listed on nigeria stock exchange is twice of theirs and these are the countries people throw shade at nigeria.
Which means there is more companies offering more jobs in nigeria than total combined of these 8 countries.

emmaodet:
From the attached pictures, the market cap of nigeria stock market is twice that of total 8 francophone west african countries (ivory coast, mali, burkina faso etc)
So the market cap of companies listed on nigeria stock exchange is twice of theirs and these are the countries people throw shade at nigeria.
Which means there is more companies offering more jobs in nigeria than total combined of these 8 countries.

Even despite the naira depreciation (3.5 times depreciation) in just 2 years.
Not only is our stock market the biggest by market cap in west Africa but also in east and central africa despite having the worst devaluation rate of any African country in the last 2 years.
But we can do more though. South African market cap is over a trillion dollars.

StockBaron:
From the notes to the Q1 result, about 38% of their receivables is Withholding Tax recoverable, while about 25% of their payables is VAT & WHT. They are still high though, but just wanted to state my observation.

Ok. Noted
But FG refund WHT?...I wish.

Them go wait for you for your deterred income tax obligation.

zendi:
Chimex38, this Latin, Greek or Chinese wey you dey blast under my name, if na compliment, I feel flattered oo.

A Fictional wizard with Magical Powers who is filled with wisdom and sometimes predicts the future
(from which i ascribed the name to you ) .
From the Novel Sword of Truth adapted into the Movie Series:
Legend of the Seeker
(He helped a Young Man fulfil his destiny)


You can look up the section "Wizard's rules" under this Wikipedia page below as part of your weekend digest.. The 11 rules are also kind of plausible in real life.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sword_of_Truth#Zeddicus_Zu'l_Zorander

emmaodet:
From the attached pictures, the market cap of nigeria stock market is twice that of total 8 francophone west african countries (ivory coast, mali, burkina faso etc)
So the market cap of companies listed on nigeria stock exchange is twice of theirs and these are the countries people throw shade at nigeria.
Which means there is more companies offering more jobs in nigeria than total combined of these 8 countries.

Don't you think Nigeria should really be competing with South Africa

EDUECO:
Not for banks like UBA, Zenith,Access and GTBank.

Each of the four banks listed above has a shareholder's funds exceeding 2.4 Trillion Naira!

UBA, Zenith Bank and Access Bank all have shareholder's funds that is doubled their market capitalization. The shareholder's funds of each of these 3 banks is close to 4 Trillion Naira.

Ebi like say that discusssion of holding back dividend as per aqcuiring of FBHN done spread reach general banking sector

Sunrisepebble:
I hawked the bolded tirelessly when it was at 170, sold at 256, gave alert to when I bought it back again between 220 and 240. There was a big seller around N280 in May, once they had exhausted their holdings it started rising.
Currently sitting on 400k units at 236 average cost not sure whether I should sell since it’s nearing my price target or wait till the South African parent does their offer for sale at discount to market to add more

This is massive.
Almost 100M investment.
You are doing well.

leo1234:
Will this also affect Microfinance Banks?

No l don't think so, they are not undergoing market recapitalization, they are the next hot cake with insurances

fashionnisir:
Abi like say that discusssion of holding back dividend as per aqcuiring of FBHN done spread reach general banking sector

Chai. What about episode. Hope nobody is saying Ote$ is up to something

leo1234:
This is massive.
Almost 100M investment.
You are doing well.

Lol, based on my estimates, he's trading the NGX with no less than ₦400 million. I suspect he made a big chunk of it from Aradel, though I could be wrong. Compare that with Loco, who made a paltry ₦50–60 million, yet makes all the noise. Small nyash, dey shake.

fashionnisir:
No l don't think so, they are not undergoing market recapitalization, they are the next hot cake with insurances

Thanks 👍


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ositadima1:
Lol, based on my estimates, he's trading the NGX with no less than ₦400 million. I suspect he made a big chunk of it from Aradel, though I could be wrong. Compare that with Loco, who made a paltry ₦50–60 million, yet makes all the noise. Small nyash, dey shake.

50M is still massive.

Most people here are still trading with less than 10M.

GeneralDae:
Mehn Dangote refinery alone almost single handedly changed the dynamics of our petroleum products exports and imports in 2024/2025. This is a really good one for Nigeria.

https://www.thecable.ng/petroleum-products-import-fell-by-75-5-to-n3-7trn-in-q1-says-nbs/

One man squad. .