₦airaland Forum

Ellah march on... As "Dem Dem" don make me panic sell Oando at N29, make I look to Ellah for succour in the short term and "bountiful harvest" in the mid to long term.
See what I did with the bolded?

SonofElElyonRet:
Ellah march on... As "Dem Dem" don make me panic sell Oando at N29, make I look to Ellah for succour in the short term and "bountiful harvest" in the mid to long term.
See what I did with the bolded?

This your Oando still dey pain you o
Sorry bros. Na part of the game. Na part of the merit and demerit of being in a public space discussing investment. You must take responsibility for your actions and/or inactions

To think this was just last year

Agbalowomeri:
This your Oando still dey pain you o
Sorry bros. Na part of the game. Na part of the merit and demerit of being in a public space discussing investment. You must take responsibility for your actions and/or inactions

No matter what he shouldn't have sold all. SELLING all investments ain't a good choice sometimes

Good morning, everyone. Please, who can provide some clarification on MRS delisting? I received an exit consideration sum that is below what is expected at the N135 exit price, and my account shows the stock is still intact in my portfolio. The registrar has been unreachable on phone.

Ginalex:
To think this was just last year

Not a bad portfolio for someone who started few years ago

Ginalex:
To think this was just last year

See babe wey get doings and showing workings. Achalugo na me go marry you next life. I don book o

Agbalowomeri:
This your Oando still dey pain you o
Sorry bros. Na part of the game. Na part of the merit and demerit of being in a public space discussing investment. You must take responsibility for your actions and/or inactions

I don gba kamu. And I don learn lesson.. have your own plan and stick to it. Even if you wanna sell when in doubt, sell part and keep part..

megawealth01:
No matter what he shouldn't have sold all. SELLING all investments ain't a good choice sometimes

Yes o. Just typed this.

emmanuelewumi:
Talking about dragging. A company expected to make a profit after tax of N200 billion in 2025 having 1 billion outstanding shares can drag another company in the sector that is not sure of making a profit after tax of N1 billion yet having out 5 billion outstanding shares with plans to cover more debts to equity

Some of you guys are right that ELLAHLAKES is currently not having good numbers, but what you can't conclude is their future. Did you know that the company was having a capitalization of less than 13bllion few months ago, but it's now at 22billion. My brother, the young shall grow I beg. Especially, now that the nation is focusing on agric development.

Besides, when sentiment favours any stock, anything can happen. Oando is a typical example, you know for sure that it wasn't good numbers that moved oando from N5 to almost N100 last year, and hovering around N60 now. Hope you know that ELLAHLAKES has not experienced any bull since the regime of buhari. Now that the market has remember it, no one can say for sure, like oando, where it's heading to. ELLAHLAKES has crossed all time highs with great strength. According my experience in this market for almost 30yrs, Ellah is heading to new support and resistance.

Lastly, no single stock on ngx is crashing this year. I pains me each time I remember that my 5million on oando would have at least worth over 60million now. This time, I go make am for Ellah. By the way , agric companies hardly make loses cause the hardly import or engage in much expenses

Calebbold:
Closely check where the profit is coming from 😁. Anyway, I look forward to experts analysis of the q1 result.

Lol! . Haba!
Profit na profit abeg! You people no go kee Oando!
Profit must always come from somewhere.
And loss must always come from somewhere!

As long as the profit is coming consistently, I don't mind where it is coming from.

You can also see that the Operating Loss of (N301b) is coming from ''fair value loss on modification of financial assets'' of N311b,which is a one-time event and not due to core operations.
In other words, the core performance/bottom line would have improved by N311b if not for the ''fair value loss on modification of financial assets''.

SonofElElyonRet:
I don gba kamu. And I don learn lesson.. have your own plan and stick to it. Even if you wanna sell when in doubt, sell part and keep part..

I have many things to teach people here especially sincere LEANERS about WEALTH but many books/thoughts have been posted here for that purpose by other great thinkers...

In a faceless platform such as nairaland there are many unreasonable people just ensure you have a well defined reason you are INVESTING or trading. This will help you disregard noise makers and stay close to meaningful people that will help you achieve your INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE GOALS. INVESTMENT is a game which doesn't have emotions. It only bows to KNOWLEDGE BASED INFO. That's why I don't seek for approval anywhere I just go for info. Once I get a good info, I key into it first then announce it here or in my personal GROUPS. All I do afterwards is laugh hard at noises and focus on what I'm doing... TIME, PATIENCE AND KNOWLEDGE have proved ME to be right most of the times on my PICKS. From TANTALIZERS to NB to ELLAH and many others...

TRUE MATURITY is never to reply people that in real life can't match one of your paid STAFF but attack you daily IMAGINARY knowing fully well they can't access you in real life. STAY FOCUSED on the GAME

I don't get into most stocks when the ovations are high. I start buying most stocks before the NUMBERS start emerging..

IT'S A GAME BRO. I won't be able to say it all here

Just invest in KNOWLEDGE and stay FOCUSED always

Agbalowomeri:
See babe wey get doings and showing workings. Achalugo na me go marry you next life. I don book o

She has sold few to invest in better returns so maybe you will dash her more money so she can invest massively abi you don't want to help her succeed ni?

mikeapollo:
Lol! . Haba!
Profit na profit abeg! You people no go kee Oando!
Profit must always come from somewhere.
And loss must always come from somewhere!

As long as the profit is coming consistently, I don't mind where it is coming from.

Financial engineering profit
I think Oando is gradually coming out of the wilderness but then crude prices go hook them again

emmanuelewumi:
Not a bad portfolio for someone who started few years ago

it's not by my making o my oga. You and other ogas held my hands through it all without even knowing you did

Agbalowomeri:
See babe wey get doings and showing workings. Achalugo na me go marry you next life. I don book o

My husband dey read your message

Ginalex:
My husband dey read your message

Are you minding him in?

megawealth01:
I have many things to teach people here especially sincere LEANERS about WEALTH but many books/thoughts have been posted here for that purpose by other great thinkers...

In a faceless platform such as nairaland there are many unreasonable people just ensure you have a well defined reason you are INVESTING or trading. This will help you disregard noise makers and stay close to meaningful people that will help you achieve your INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE GOALS. INVESTMENT is a game which doesn't have emotions. It only bows to KNOWLEDGE BASED INFO. That's why I don't seek for approval anywhere I just go for info. Once I get a good info, I key into it first then announce it here or in my personal GROUPS. All I do afterwards is laugh hard at noises and focus on what I'm doing... TIME, PATIENCE AND KNOWLEDGE have proved ME to be right most of the times on my PICKS. From TANTALIZERS to NB to ELLAH and many others...

TRUE MATURITY is never to reply people that in real life can't match one of your paid STAFF but attack you daily IMAGINARY knowing fully well they can't access you in real life. STAY FOCUSED on the GAME

I don't get into most stocks when the ovations are high. I start buying most stocks before the NUMBERS start emerging..

IT'S A GAME BRO. I won't be able to say it all here

Just invest in KNOWLEDGE and stay FOCUSED always

Yes . Now I'm a better investor

MY PERSONAL OPINION... DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AS AlwaYS

Lead Equity Market Wrap - 24/06/2025

📍Market Performance

- The NGX All Share Index advanced by +1.02%, closing at a record high of 119,790.82 points, driven by bullish market dominance.

- Market breadth was positive, with 23 losers and 61 gainers.

📍Top Gainers

- DANGSUGAR: +10.00%
- OKOMUOIL: +10.00%
- UPDC: +10.00%
- BETAGLAS: +10.00%
- CHAMPION: +9.98%

📍Top Losers

- DAARCOMM: -7.81%
- PRESTIGE: -5.56%
- IMG: -4.30%
- NPFMCRFBK: -4.25%
- ARADEL: -4.06%

📍Trading Activity

- Total volume increased by +15.73% to 756.50 million units, valued at N23.29 billion.

- ROYALEX (-3.85%) was the most actively traded stock, with 103.58 million units worth N113.96 million.

📍Stock Picks for Next Trading Session

- BUY: ACCESS, FIRST BANK, CADBURY

- HOLD: CADBURY

SonofElElyonRet:
Yes . Now I'm a better investor

WOW. Emotions mastery is 🗝️

Great post! One key point to consider is the importance of compounding profits. Instead of booking profits, investors should consider reinvesting them to maximize returns. Compounding can be a powerful wealth-building tool, and it's worth considering for long-term investment success.

jonnysessy:
Whoever doesn't have a positive impact yesterday in his portfolio yesterday must be having stockfish, or just one or two stocks in that portfolio. Even NSEMPA page was agog with all manners of analysis and paralysis. It took me a while to read through everything. Even old schools were not left out. They found their way back to the platform.
All is not lost, today will be their turn. Couldn't count the number of smiley faces I saw .


Lesson: Don't be carried away, follow your investment objectives. Also learn to take some profits.

opaclem:
🏢 Oando Plc – Q1 2025 Financial Summary

Reporting Period: January – March 2025
Prepared by: ChatGPT
Date: June 24, 2025

The "major pipeline vandalism they were battling in Q1" reported by yourself a while back, is obvious in this result.

If they have now been able to achieve 34kboe which was their 2024 exit production rate in Q2, then Q2 should be much better. I assume pipelines have now been fixed. In fact, I expect 34kboe should be a base rate not target.

I could be totally wrong with this one but I'm inclined to think the tax credit might be related to reimbursement of JV infrastructure repair costs. Industry upstream GM is about 50% if I'm not mistaken so reporting a loss is very unusual.

My ChatGpt prompt whenever an earnings report is released :
*ChatGpt Finance Prompt:*
Give me a full detailed and forensic financial and investment analysis of the attached results here. Cover in details the income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, profitability, liquidity, solvency, and valuation ratios. Compare it with industry benchmarks and historical performance. Conclude with a buy, sell, or hold recommendation, with clear reasoning. Peruse in details all the notes in the financial statement and indicate all red flags.
Determine the fair price based on this attached result using at least three most standard valuation models.
Include recent corporate actions or capital raises.
Assess dividend sustainability.
Factor in macroeconomic risks like FX and inflation.
Include chart patterns or breakout signals if possible.
Determine if there is any window dressing of this results. Fish out all grey areas.

I applied this prompt to the current Oando results. See below what I got in response:


ChatGpt:
Here's a forensic and investment-grade financial analysis of Oando Plc’s Q1 2025 unaudited interim report, covering the income statement, balance sheet, cash flows, key financial ratios, red flags, valuation models, and investment recommendation:

🧾 1. INCOME STATEMENT ANALYSIS (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Metric Q1 2025 (₦’000) Q1 2024 (₦’000) % Change

Revenue 932,574 915,420 +1.88%
Gross Profit 85,426 31,409 +171.94%
Operating Income (120,339) 117,202 N/M
Net Finance Income 67,777 (46,855) +244.6%
Profit Before Tax (52,562) 70,347 N/M
Net Profit (Group) 113,058 59,346 +90.5%

📌 Observation:
Despite a higher net profit, this was due to a massive income tax credit (₦165.6bn). Operating performance was actually negative, driven by a large other operating loss of ₦301.9bn, which warrants scrutiny.

🧮 2. BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS

Key Highlights (Group):

Item Q1 2025 (₦’bn) FY 2024 (₦’bn)

Total Assets 6,834 6,434
Total Liabilities 7,074 6,795
Equity (240) (361)
Cash and Equivalents 303.9 221.8
Borrowings (Total) 3,038.6 2,772


📌 Observation:

Negative Equity (-₦240bn): Highly concerning. Accumulated losses continue to erode capital.

Borrowings increased by ₦266bn, indicating reliance on debt financing

💰 3. CASH FLOW ANALYSIS

Segment Q1 2025 (₦’000) Q1 2024 (₦’000)

Net Operating CF (176,976) +379,289
Net Investing CF (38,992) (1,197)
Net Financing CF +327,153 (157,465)
Net Change in Cash +111,184 +220,627


📌 Red Flag: Cash flow from operations turned negative, meaning the company is relying on financing activities (mostly new borrowings) to remain liquid.

📊 4. RATIO ANALYSIS

a. Profitability

Gross Margin = 9.2% (vs 3.4% in Q1 2024) ✅

Net Margin = 12.1% (vs 6.5%) ✅ (but driven by tax credit)

ROA ≈ 1.65%

ROE = N/A (Negative Equity)


b. Liquidity

Current Ratio = 1.17x (1,235bn / 1,054bn) ✅

Quick Ratio ≈ 1.0x


c. Solvency

Debt-to-Equity = Negative (₦3.04tr debt on -₦240bn equity) ❌

Debt-to-Assets = 44.5% ❗


d. Valuation Multiples (Estimates; needs market cap):

P/E: Assuming ~₦5/share EPS (quarterly annualized), P/E ~1.5–2x — appears low, but driven by tax credits.

EV/EBITDA: Likely elevated due to poor core earnings.

🔎 5. RED FLAGS & GREY AREAS

1. ₦301.9bn "Other Operating Loss"

This is unusually large. It may relate to FX losses, derivative losses, or asset impairments. Needs clarity from note 4.

2. Tax Credit of ₦165.6bn

Not from core operations. Likely from deferred tax adjustments. Not sustainable.

3. Negative Retained Earnings

Group: (₦181.2bn)

Company: (₦560bn)


4. Window Dressing Indicators

Strong net profit contrasts with poor operating and cash performance — suggest accounting gains.

Large deferred tax asset increase (+₦36bn) and impairment reversals hint at aggressive assumptions.

📌 6. FAIR VALUE ESTIMATION (₦)

Using conservative trailing/forward metrics and industry multiples:

a. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assuming:

EBITDA ~₦60bn (normalized)

WACC = 18%

Growth = 2%

Enterprise Value = ₦360bn

Debt = ₦3tr → Equity value = Negative


b. Relative Valuation (P/E, EV/EBITDA)

P/E of 4x on sustainable EPS of ₦3 = ₦12 fair value

EV/EBITDA = 5x on ₦60bn → EV = ₦300bn → Negative equity again.


c. Book Value Multiple (P/B)

Book value is negative, so P/B is not usable.

📌 Estimated Conservative Fair Price: ₦8–₦10 (if normalized EPS is sustainable)
📌 Aggressive Valuation: ₦12–₦15 (if full tax credits are repeatable)

📈 7. CHART PATTERNS & BREAKOUT SIGNALS

Do you want me to analyze current NGX price action for OANDO with chart patterns and Ichimoku/Keltner/Volume breakout setups?

🧾 8. DIVIDEND SUSTAINABILITY

No dividend paid

Dividend Payable of ₦1.65bn on books from prior years

Negative equity and cash burn = unsustainable for dividend resumption.

🌍 9. MACRO RISKS: FX & INFLATION

Naira depreciation significantly affects cost of servicing USD debts (Oando has material FX exposure).

High inflation pressures margins and borrowing costs.

Crude oil price volatility remains a core business risk.

🏁 10. INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION

✅ Verdict: HOLD with High Speculative Risk

Pros:

Revenue stability

Positive tax-driven net profit

Operational asset base with growth potential


Cons:

Negative equity

Cash flow issues

Highly leveraged

Masked core profitability (possible window dressing)

🧠 Strategic Play:

Only for speculative investors betting on oil recovery, asset sale, or restructuring.

Strong activist or institutional moves (like recapitalization) could rerate valuation.

Ginalex:
To think this was just last year

Congratulations. But, i don't understand the price in Transcorp.

You’re a chairwoman

Ginalex:
To think this was just last year

This Oando result... I'm waiting for the going concern... Over to the analysts

DeRuggedProff:
My ChatGpt prompt whenever an earnings report is released :
*ChatGpt Finance Prompt:*
Give me a full detailed and forensic financial and investment analysis of the attached results here. Cover in details the income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, profitability, liquidity, solvency, and valuation ratios. Compare it with industry benchmarks and historical performance. Conclude with a buy, sell, or hold recommendation, with clear reasoning. Peruse in details all the notes in the financial statement and indicate all red flags.
Determine the fair price based on this attached result using at least three most standard valuation models.
Include recent corporate actions or capital raises.
Assess dividend sustainability.
Factor in macroeconomic risks like FX and inflation.
Include chart patterns or breakout signals if possible.
Determine if there is any window dressing of this results. Fish out all grey areas.

I applied this prompt to the current Oando results. See below what I got in response:

Thank you

megawealth01:
This Oando result... I'm waiting for the going concern... Over to the analysts

Oando cannot and will not be liquidated. The worst case would be a merger or acquisition by another upstream oil company.

mikeapollo:
Oando cannot and will not be liquidated. The worst case would be a merger or acquisition by another upstream oil company.

What will now happen to shareholders if the worst happens?

As you are building WEALTH that is MEGA remember to help your kids/offsprings with the right FINANCIAL KNOWLEDGE on INVESTMENT not just building ASSETS for them...

Wale you finally answered.
OANDO is now up today with her results like other companies and I hope it maintains going forward.
The results may not be shouting yet but good.
Take from the results .
OANDO is not digging more into the hole.It is making efforts to come out even if it is at crawling speed.
Good to see improvements in shareholders fund and others
Nice improvements in cost efficiency.
Strictly based of eps with debts and negative shareholders fund still on the table. The eps of #9 with forward of #30-#35.Oando is now a comfortable candidate for #100 and above this yr.


I dey wait to see how that E stock will be crawling out and not digging deeper too
I expect our share distribution anytime soon

megawealth01:
What will now happen to shareholders if the worst happens?

The shareholders will definitely benefit because only a stronger company e.g. Seplat or a foreign company can acquire Oando and the value per share cannot be less than N200 (going by Oando' oil reserves).