₦airaland Forum

NettyNelly:
About 80% of CI Leasing’s total revenue comes from the marine segment, of which 60% is dollarized. When l dollarized 60% of the marine revenue historically, I observed that It earned about $22.5m from the marine segment in 2023. However, this dropped to $15.4m in 2024 (but fx devaluation made 2024 revenue look higher than the previous year). The drop in $ revenue in 2024 was largely due to its biggest vessel, MV BELLO, being non-operational for some part of 2024. (MV BELLO commands rental rates of $16k–$20k per day, compared to $4k–$5k per day for the company’s other vessels.)

According to management, MV BELLO was scheduled to return to operation in April 2025, which should support a rebound in marine revenue to 2023 levels, or even higher.

With this context, two factors are important for CI Leasing’s 2025 results:
1. Current vessel rates in 2025 are higher than they were in 2023. With MV BELLO back in operation, we expect higher revenue in 2025 compared to 2023.

2. The naira has depreciated significantly since 2023. At current exchange rates, CI Leasing could record higher revenue in naira terms in 2025, even if dollar revenue remains flat relative to 2023.

My Analysis, but Still DYOR

Omooloriredade:
What this post is not:

-
- Specifically directed at moniker quoted except otherwise stated.





• Ellah was an audio farm until it was not.
• Ellah is now a small garden. Wait till you find out it’s not a show stopper.
• Directors’ loans were converted to equity because Ellah couldn’t repay them.
• Directors’ will flood the market with the shares so they could recover their funds until they did not.

• Ellah won’t pass N4 until is got to N5. Ten offers are coming at N5 for sure until it got. to N7.
• CEO wants to raise money, steal it then japa. Both the thought process and conclusion are ridiculous. @Street that was an emotion-laden post. Too much energy, passion and aggression. You could even be sued for libel

ALL false, misleading, fallacious and irrational considering the facts.

.

NettyNelly:
Buying the Stock for his sake is quite risky.

Streetinvestor2:
I will only respond to this point because many other thing thr is just noise

1.It was classified as audio farm because of all secrecy concerning the physical farm which was not the case with other in the sector. The first interview was done with brokers and pictures released was done in a park.Thr is no proper video of the farm in the interviews I have seen...why.
If you have any,pls post it or share link

2.I called it a garden after showing working using the 3 tonnes per hour capacity mill of 72 tonnes per day. The post is on this thread. I did my judgment based on what okumu and presco equally have on ground. And the statement from the ceo who said for it to run of full capacity of the 3 tonnes they will have to do others FFB..Three tonnes mill per hour is barely industry by my finding. Then another oga who I know long ago collaborated my maths by saying they are dam too small.If you have different fact.Pls present it.Another person used map to equally say the same thing.
Pls tell us the cultivated palm farm size of the company or approximately the number of palm trees on ground not landbank.

3.Thr have been insider dealings .It must not fall into the category of directors/management. I am not a learner in this business if you are waiting for disclosure.

4.Tell us why debt was converted to equity if not because they could not pay back the loan.From whr will they pay back when the company way not generating revenue. I even saw whr salaries was converted to equity in past too.The one they just generated in 9 months results is 68 million. Do you have different fact

5 Show prove whr I ever said the company could not attain a particular figure in price beside saying it is jijo stock.So whr is your #4 coming from because I don't remember.

6.What I said about the possible intent of the ceo is my opinion which many have voiced thr options on other company ceo here.
And on all the noise on my emotions. Is it your emotion.I have the right to it.

7.Can you provide information on those who provided those millions of units traded this week as the debt conversion I was made to believe was not only from directors loans

All that is important is bring facts and counter facts on this things I listed. I hope you are not insider indirectly too.What does a ceo of a business which has not proved any thing extraordinary in many yrs need this kind money....250 billion .

Omooloriredade:
As you are aware, OP is quite bullish about the stock. "I hope for your sake" means I wish him well and hopes his dreams are realised.

I'm not buying the stock for his sake.

Good research on C&I by the way. Way to go.

NettyNelly:
About 80% of CI Leasing’s total revenue comes from the marine segment, of which 60% is dollarized. When l dollarized 60% of the marine revenue historically, I observed that It earned about $22.5m from the marine segment in 2023. However, this dropped to $15.4m in 2024 (but fx devaluation made 2024 revenue look higher than the previous year). The drop in $ revenue in 2024 was largely due to its biggest vessel, MV BELLO, being non-operational for some part of 2024. (MV BELLO commands rental rates of $16k–$20k per day, compared to $4k–$5k per day for the company’s other vessels.)

According to management, MV BELLO was scheduled to return to operation in April 2025, which should support a rebound in marine revenue to 2023 levels, or even higher.

With this context, two factors are important for CI Leasing’s 2025 results:
1. Current vessel rates in 2025 are higher than they were in 2023. With MV BELLO back in operation, we expect higher revenue in 2025 compared to 2023.

2. The naira has depreciated significantly since 2023. At current exchange rates, CI Leasing could record higher revenue in naira terms in 2025, even if dollar revenue remains flat relative to 2023.

There’s a one-off Tax payment the bussiness paid Last year, If you normalized the 2025 PAT based on this analysis, you will see significant increase in PAT

My Analysis, but Still DYOR

ositadima1:
My recent realization is that nobody truly knows anything for sure — it’s all speculation. Anyone can make a case for or against a stock, but that doesn't change the facts, or the lack thereof. All stocks are inherently risky. Every single one. The sources of risk may differ, and even the price at which a stock is bought introduces risk.

Almost everyone claims they're helping out newbies, even when they're no different themselves. So I suggest not bothering to fiercely defend or attack a stock — it's rarely worth the stress, unless you genuinely enjoy going back and forth in arguments.

Whatever is going to happen tomorrow — especially things beyond our control — will happen regardless. Arguing all day won’t change that. The most important thing is to always manage and mitigate risk as much as possible.

Omooloriredade:
....

Questions:
- Why would a small company like Ellah want to raise that much?
- How do they intend to achieve this?
- Do they have sophisticated investors, foreign portfolio investors or venture capitalists waiting in the wings?
- What would they do with the money?
- How about the dilution to the register or impact on share structure? Will they be looking to address this in the future via a share reconstruction or what?

Management did indicate they were in discussions to acquire an entity.
- How big is this entity?
- Is that what the N250B would be used for?
- Who are the potential targets?
- Can this be likened to acquisitions that eventuated in the past eg STB vs UBA?

Pure Speculation territory now as I am also left scratching my head on what the N250B would be used for:

Wilmar international is now the sole owner of PZ Wilmar after PZ divested their 50% holding of the later for $70M (c. N105B) consideration. 100% of PZ Wilmar is about N210B. Could this be the target entity?

Wilmar’s plan post exit of PZ Cussons:
“However, we recognise the importance of having strong local partnerships in the markets where we operate and will be looking for a suitable local partner for the business.”

ALL in my opinion. I could be sincerely wrong.

Princkez:
I thought the ceo granted live interview on twitter some weeks ago,most of these questions should have been directed to him..

KarlTom:
I also share similar sentiments about the future of WILMAR in Nigeria.

It remains to be seen IF ELLAH can pull this off...

ositadima1:
My recent realization is that nobody truly knows anything for sure — it’s all speculation. Anyone can make a case for or against a stock, but that doesn't change the facts, or the lack thereof. All stocks are inherently risky. Every single one. The sources of risk may differ, and even the price at which a stock is bought introduces risk.

Almost everyone claims they're helping out newbies, even when they're no different themselves. So I suggest not bothering to fiercely defend or attack a stock — it's rarely worth the stress, unless you genuinely enjoy going back and forth in arguments.

Whatever is going to happen tomorrow — especially things beyond our control — will happen regardless. Arguing all day won’t change that. The most important thing is to always manage and mitigate risk as much as possible.

Mankind2024:
From the looks of it, it seems unlikely that Ellah Lake will acquire the disinvested assets of PZ from Wilmar. Investors should dig deeper to understand Ellah Lake's plans for the proposed N250 billion capital raise and what strategic moves they have in store.

Wilmar to buy out PZ Cussons’ 50% stake in PZ Wilmar for $70 million
Acquisition includes 26,500 hectares of plantations and a 1,000-ton/day refinery
Nigeria’s rising demand and supply deficit drive Wilmar’s expansion strategy.

Omooloriredade:
Going back and forth on social media / forums is stressful for sure Certainly not my thing.

Mankind2024:
Loco is a student of Ronald Wayne. Lol

SonofElElyonRet:
Wilmar may not be selling 100% stake to Ellah but a chunk? Maybe Pa Emma can get us reliable info as before..

GeeKudi:


But are we not all Ronald Wayne if we are being honest? Life will continually present opportunities, some we avail, some we don't even recorgnise at all.
No one knows tomorrow!

Omooloriredade:
Ah! You're already dividing up Wilmar. I was just speculating o. Haha.

By the way, there is PZ Wilmar and there is Wilmar International. PZ Cussons sold their stake in PZ Wilmar. Wilmar International now owns PZ Wilmar 100% but operates them as distinct entities. Wilmar Int operates two JV oil palm plantation in Nigeria where they hold the majority stake and PZ Wilmar holds a minority stake. So selling 100% of PZ Wilmar to Ellah implies they will still hold majority stake in those farms.

Please lets remember this is pure speculation until we get an official announcement confirming or trashing it.

Omooloriredade:
Ah! You're already dividing up Wilmar. I was just speculating o. Haha.

By the way, there is PZ Wilmar and there is Wilmar International. PZ Cussons sold their stake in PZ Wilmar. Wilmar International now owns PZ Wilmar 100% but operates them as distinct entities. Wilmar Int operates two JV oil palm plantation in Nigeria where they hold the majority stake and PZ Wilmar holds a minority stake. So selling 100% of PZ Wilmar to Ellah implies they will still hold majority stake in those farms.

Please lets remember this is pure speculation until we get an official announcement confirming or trashing it.

Streetinvestor2:
Bro this is shallow to my post as i only responded to a post on me.If you are looking for likes try next door pls.
Otherwise address the listed things I stated...lol

GeeKudi:
I tried asking Mr AI if he sees any chance of Ellah acquiring PZ Wilmar. He had the following to say

What’s Actually Happening with PZ Wilmar
• Wilmar International (Singapore) has already agreed to buy out PZ Cussons Plc’s 50% stake in PZ Wilmar for US $70 million.
• Once completed—expected in Q4 2025—Wilmar will own 100% of PZ Wilmar, marking PZ Cussons’s exit from the joint venture punchng.com+7vanguardngr.com+7thenationonlineng.net+7thenationonlineng.net+2punchng.com+2thecable.ng+2.

🔍 Why Ellah Lakes Isn’t Involved
• Wilmar is acquiring the stake directly from PZ Cussons, not putting it on the open market.
• The transaction is not structured for third-party participation, and the intent is vertical consolidation within Wilmar—not a sale to another buyer .
• After the acquisition, Wilmar has expressed interest in finding a local partner—but this is for operational support, not equity transfer. There is no indication that they’re seeking to offload any stake to Ellah Lakes specifically nairametrics.com+4nairametrics.com+4punchng.com+4.

✅ Summary Table
Key Factor Implication
Ownership Deal Wilmar is buying PZ Cussons’s stake directly; not up for grabs by others.
Regulatory Approval Transaction is pending regulatory sign-off, not an open auction.
Local Partnerships May be operational, but not equity sale; still no open share offer to others.

💡 Bottom Line
Unless Wilmar unexpectedly decides to divest part of its newly acquired PZ Wilmar stake—which is highly improbable—there’s no pathway for Ellah Lakes to acquire the company. They should instead focus on their own growth strategy or look for other agribusiness M&A opportunities more aligned with their portfolio.

Princkez:
For ELLAHLAKES to come up with this 250b fund raising,I think they already got an investor on the line...just thinking.

GeeKudi:
Again, I asked Mr AI for PZ Wilmar's key assets and operations. The thought of Ellah acquiring PZ Wimar is like a goat trying to swallow an elephant!


Here’s a clearer picture of PZ Wilmar’s key assets and operations:

🌴 Plantations & Estates
• Extensive oil palm plantations (≈26,500 ha) in Cross River State, including Calaro Estate (5,549 ha), Calaro Extension (2,369 ha), Ibiae (5,595 ha), Ibad (7,805 ha), Kwa Falls (2,014 ha), and Oban (2,986 ha) pzwilmar.com+11archive.businessday.ng+11businessday.ng+11.
• Part of a long-term goal to expand to 50,000 hectares, under a massive backward-integration strategy businessday.ng+2vanguardngr.com+2archive.businessday.ng+2.
• The plantations are integrated farms with staff housing, dedicated water treatment, and automated offices archive.businessday.ng.

🏭 Processing & Refining Facilities
• Palm oil mill (POM) and kernel crushing plant (KCP) within Calaro Estate:
o POM processes fresh fruit bunches; KCP extracts palm kernel oils pzwilmar.com+5archive.businessday.ng+5businessday.ng+5.
• Lagos-based refinery and packaging plant with a capacity of 1,000 MT/day, making it one of Nigeria’s largest 🍶pzwilmar.com.
o Produces brands like Mamador and Devon King's oils, plus high-margin margarine spreads pzwilmar.com+6pzwilmar.com+6vanguardngr.com+6.
• Includes a modern margarine plant, effluent treatment, and plastic gallon manufacturing for packaging pzwilmar.com+1archive.businessday.ng+1.

🔁 Contract Farming & Sustainable Practices
• Works with smallholder farmers, offering seeds, training, and infrastructure support to buffer harvest shortfalls businessday.ng+5pzwilmar.com+5pzwilmar.com+5.
• Focuses on environmental sustainability, best-management practices, ISO 22000 food safety certification, and efficient by-products usage archive.businessday.ng+1vanguardngr.com+1.

💸 Investment Scale & Objectives
• Total investment of roughly US$150 million (N45 billion) in plantations and N20 billion in the Lagos refinery businessday.ng+1archive.businessday.ng+1.
• Foresees US$650 million in total foreign direct investment, with expectations to generate around 30,000–250,000 direct and indirect jobs over time archive.businessday.ng+2pzwilmar.com+2businessday.ng+2.
• Aims to close Nigeria’s palm oil import gap (~350,000 MT/year) and revive the country’s historical leadership in the sector businessday.ng+4archive.businessday.ng+4pzwilmar.com+4.

✅ Summary
PZ Wilmar operates a vertically integrated palm oil enterprise in Nigeria, from large-scale plantations through to refining, packaging, and developing consumer brands. It complements this core agricultural operation with forward and backward integration, smallholder engagement, and sustainability initiatives—all underpinned by substantial foreign investment.
Let me know if you’d like to dive into production volumes, financial performance, or how PZ Wilmar stacks up against competitors like Okomu or Presco!

Princkez:
For ELLAHLAKES to come up with this 250b fund raising,I think they already got an investor on the line...just thinking.

SonofElElyonRet:
Like Access did with far bigger banks? Not saying it'll happen but not impossible