₦airaland Forum

Payunsin:
1 bought 1m units of deapcap 3 week s ago just to play with now on bid at ₦1.30 n my Transcorp which I pumped so much still dey do anyhow. Anyways hmm time to go come.
But to hell with fundermentals sometimes infact I have been making more money from do called unfundermental stocks

leo1234:
Better remain where you are.

BUACEMENT is fundamentally strong.

SonofElElyonRet:
JapaulGold needs deliverance with the "ijo yoyo" wey e dey do. We need good news to drive up price. Jegede should provide progress report on the march to gold mining and refining

Harvestock01:
Please allow oando remain under the radar

yMcy56:
Abi nah.
What's happening in market now is beyond fundamentals....
I was telling someone that the companies that didn't even make up to 1/10th of Oando is moving on the Exchange ...
Lots of penny ones that are easily moving up with little or no fundamentals...... Though some are being manipulated by some big guys around, good for those in them anyway...
Oando's time will also come.... Its case cant be different..

SonofElElyonRet:
Human beans like to fear.
Sorry I couldn't resist the "temptation"

Mpeace:
PZ audited 2024 and q1 2025 result will be that decider.

emmaodet:


My brother, my hand was typing faster than my brain ni

megawealth01:
The sky is blue

Pete002:
UNIVINSURE .

emmaodet:
Not yet.
In the meantime, based on my valuation, Japaul should rise to #3.20 region after releasing there H1/25 result if my estimated revenue of 5.6b is met and TTM earnings of 1.6b.
They have been doing well in the last 3 Quarters declaring profit, though more needs to be done in there OCF.
But after the 100b dilution, they will need to grow there EPS by 600% to breakeven for investors.
How good and far the management would be able to make good use of the capital is what we will see.
Current market cap = 2.7 x 14.3b shares = #38.6b
Final Market cap = #38.6b/100b shares = #0.39 = 39k
They plan to do shares reconstruction immediately to avoid uproar....so we may see a 3 to 1 construction to bring the price above #1 to #1.2 per share. But that is just share price cosmetic approach. EPS is down by 600%.
As a rule of thumb for me, revenue and earnings growth rate must be higher than dilution rate to give returns to investors.
Revenue has been growing at an average of 200% in the last 3 quarters, so dilution of 100% should have been not more than 30b shares but since it seems they want to expand and it will bring value in the long run, then it should be worth the pain.
How long will they be able to return 600% eps is another thing...1 year or 5 years?
Based on historical returns, Japaul ROIC max has been 8%.
If they are to put the future raised capital of 500b into use...let's say 450b out of it while 50b in cash and equivalent, retain earnings or whatever, that will be 40b profit from invested 450b capital.
Debt to equity is 40% but with the raise capital, it should go down to 10% atleast......So we may be looking at around 30b profit as equity to shareholders.
2024 retention ratio is 65%....So a payout ratio of 35% = 11.5b divided by 100b shares....11.5k per shares dividends based of my rough estimation of Next twelve month after dilution.

KarlTom:
The Sea is blue

chimex38:
Funny how "sky" doesn't actually exist.
Just an empty space reflecting the sea

emmaodet:
Not yet.
In the meantime, based on my valuation, Japaul should rise to #3.20 region after releasing there H1/25 result if my estimated revenue of 5.6b is met and TTM earnings of 1.6b.
They have been doing well in the last 3 Quarters declaring profit, though more needs to be done in there OCF.
But after the 100b dilution, they will need to grow there EPS by 600% to breakeven for investors.
How good and far the management would be able to make good use of the capital is what we will see.
Current market cap = 2.7 x 14.3b shares = #38.6b
Final Market cap = #38.6b/100b shares = #0.39 = 39k
They plan to do shares reconstruction immediately to avoid uproar....so we may see a 3 to 1 construction to bring the price above #1 to #1.2 per share. But that is just share price cosmetic approach. EPS is down by 600%.
As a rule of thumb for me, revenue and earnings growth rate must be higher than dilution rate to give returns to investors.
Revenue has been growing at an average of 200% in the last 3 quarters, so dilution of 100% should have been not more than 30b shares but since it seems they want to expand and it will bring value in the long run, then it should be worth the pain.
How long will they be able to return 600% eps is another thing...1 year or 5 years?
Based on historical returns, Japaul ROIC max has been 8%.
If they are to put the future raised capital of 500b into use...let's say 450b out of it while 50b in cash and equivalent, retain earnings or whatever, that will be 40b profit from invested 450b capital.
Debt to equity is 40% but with the raise capital, it should go down to 10% atleast......So we may be looking at around 30b profit as equity to shareholders.
2024 retention ratio is 65%....So a payout ratio of 35% = 11.5b divided by 100b shares....11.5k per shares dividends based of my rough estimation of Next twelve month after dilution.

starpower:
Sir, this reminds me of one gathering I attended not long ago.
A gentleman confidently declared he can pull 45% annual returns trading stocks—with a straight face, o. I calmly asked, “How consistent are those returns?”
Next thing, he went full-blown emotional, even dropped the ₦100 million hypothetical starting capital like it’s sachet water money.

I just smiled. Because honestly, this is the same delusional energy I see here on the forum daily—especially in penny stock fantasyland.
Some of you will say things like “I bought 5 million units of XYZ in 3 days”, like NGX is a crypto exchange with infinite liquidity.

Let’s be real:
Most penny stocks on the NGX can’t even absorb 1 million units at a fair price in a week without pushing the price up. Unless you’re doing cross-dealing or moving paper off-market, you’re lying—or worse, deceiving yourself.

This market has shallow depth. Liquidity is highly fragmented, and volume doesn’t always equal opportunity. Just because you see 10 million units traded doesn't mean you can enter and exit with size at the price you want.
Try dropping ₦100 million into some of these tickers, and you’ll be left holding the bag while the market trades around you with tissue-paper volume.

A lot of people here forget:
Making money in stocks is one thing—scaling it up is another beast entirely.
And until you’ve tried to get out of a large position in a thin stock without breaking your back or the price, you haven’t graduated.

So when next someone throws wild return figures around, especially with big capital, ask one thing:
“Show me the track record. And show me the liquidity.”

Because if it can't scale, it’s just another story for the boys at the beer parlour. 🍻
Same way they use small sample statements to generate statistics, outright delusional 🎬

stockish:
While some SOLOMONS here are tearing their clothes in anger for Ellahlakes, for nothing, Ellah has finished selling for today.

unite4real:
the sky is not a reflection of the sea. The blue color of the sky is due to a phenomenon called Rayleigh scattering, where sunlight interacts with air molecules in the atmosphere and scatters blue light more than other colors. The ocean, on the other hand, appears blue primarily because water molecules absorb red light, causing them to primarily reflect blue light

stockish:
While some SOLOMONS here are tearing their clothes in anger for Ellahlakes, for nothing, Ellah has finished selling for today.

Ginalex:
Please who has received Japaulgold's dividend? Before I send them a mail?

ojeysky:
Those people don forget to pay us o...it's like they want to get the money from the upcoming fund raising

ojeysky:
Those people don forget to pay us o...it's like they want to get the money from the upcoming fund raising