₦airaland Forum

Even if Kwankwaso works with Tinubu in 2027, there’s no clear path to victory.

In 2023 Tinubu got 8.8 million votes.

- South West (SW): 2.3 million
- South South (SS): 800k
- South East (SE): 127k
- North West (NW): 2.7 million
- North East (NE): 1.2 million
- North Central (NC): 1.8 million

Since we all know that Buhari had 12 million supporters on his own without Tinubu, we assume that Tinubu's core supporters are the 2.3 million from the SW, because this was about the same number of votes he contributed to Buhari's victory twice in 2015 and 2019.

Kwankwaso got 1.5 million votes in the 2023 election.

Based on our math, Buhari's support contributed at least 5 million votes to Tinubu in 2023. With Buhari's passing, we assume that most of Buhari's 5 million voters will be distributed among the 4 major candidates, with Kwankwaso and Atiku getting the biggest share. If kwankwaso works with Tinubu, we'll give 50% to Tinubu/Kwankwaso, and 50% to Atiku/Obi

Tinubu and Kwankwaso combined add up to 4 million votes at most. Add 50% of Buhari supporters who voted for Tinubu in 2023, you get 7 million votes max. Add other election abracadabra, you may get up to 9 million votes max. Nothing more.

Atiku and Obi have 13 million votes combined. Add 50% of Buhari supporters who voted for Tinubu in 2023, that’s 16 million votes.

I am being moderate here, not factoring in bad governance or anything that could cause voter apathy mostly on Tinubu's side because many people who voted for him have become poorer and dissatisfied and may not vote or even turn against him.

Where is the path to victory for Tinubu? I don't see any.

If you disagree, show us your own math. Election is a game of numbers.

Special adviser on election winning we don hear you

If you’re not a delusional Obidient, wake up every morning and give a special thanks to God. I swear, you no no wetin God do for you. As it stands now, some of these obidients go soon enter market with this level of crass delusion.

Ttalk:
Special adviser on election winning we don hear you

Do you have counter proof that Tinubu has a chance? Let's see it

seunmsg:
If you’re not a delusional Obidient, wake up every morning and give a special thanks to God. I swear, you no no wetin God do for you. As it stands now, some of these obidients go soon enter market with this level of crass delusion.

Show us your math now, that's how you can best counter the numbers up there.

You even tried to dash Bat that 50%
His disgrace will be monumental!
See how they're begging for OBi and ATiku not to join hands
It is mathematically impossible for BAT to bulldoze his way through with Atiku inheriting upto 50% or more of Buhari's base.
It would amount to ADC not even needing much from the south again. They will only need SE block + 25% everywhere like mtn

kmst:
You even tried to dash Bat that 50%
His disgrace will be monumental!
See how they're begging for OBi and ATiku not to join hands
It is mathematically impossible for BAT to bulldoze his way through with Atiku inheriting upto 50% or more of Buhari's base.
It would amount to ADC not even needing much from the south again. They will only need SE block + 25% everywhere like mtn

Na kwankwaso get most of the 50% o, Tinubu will only get it if Kwankwaso agrees to work with him. So it’s still conditional

Tinubu cannot possibly win a free and fair election in Nigeria. In fact, eliminate Wike's massive rigging, Tinubu wouldn't have won 2023 even with Buhari's support. They had to rig massively where possible.

Now in 2027, what with Buhari's passing, Tinubu's unbelievably terrible performance, a (possible) united opposition, and the North's growing antagonist posture towards Tinubu, he wouldn't just need massive rigging, he would need magic rigging.

However, magic rigging is possible in today's Nigeria electoral climate. Winners are not necessarily the declared, espcially when it comes to presidential polls. Best riggers are. And best riggers are often the incumbent.

Things have changed after the 2023 election. Can't you see realignment from NC and SS to APC?

Whatever shortage of votes from most especially the NW would be covered by the NC and SS. 30% is still sure in NE

Kwankwaso becomes deputy to Tinubu after same Tinubu disgraced and undermined Shettima?

These Tinubu puppies don't even see the obvious facts..

E go shock Dem..

givedemwotowoto:
Na kwankwaso get most of the 50% o, Tinubu will only get it if Kwankwaso agrees to work with him. So it’s still conditional

KaLuCh:
Tinubu cannot possibly win a free and fair election in Nigeria. In fact, eliminate Wike's massive rigging, Tinubu wouldn't have won 2023 even with Buhari's support. They had to rig massively where possible.

Now in 2027, what with Buhari's passing, Tinubu's unbelievably terrible performance, a (possible) united opposition, and the North's growing antagonist posture towards Tinubu, he wouldn't just need massive rigging, he would need magic rigging.

However, magic rigging is possible in today's Nigeria electoral climate. Winners are not necessarily the declared, espcially when it comes to presidential polls. Best riggers are. And best riggers are often the incumbent.

The very good thing is, it's only you people that are believing your own narrations, others have moved pass reading jokes from you people.

For months on this forum, we have been reading daily developments, projects, policy reforms under this government.

Just this morning, we read about N10m loan to Tertiary staff in our universities yet you guys are claiming this government has performed terribly.

Would you tell.the beneficiaries of some of those government programs that they haven't done a thing without receiving a slap?

:DNa rigging cry go end this… All eyes on judiciary came to mind

helinues:
Things have changed after the 2023 election. Can't you see realignment from NC and SS to APC?

Whatever shortage of votes from most especially the NW would be covered by the NC and SS. 30% is still sure in NE

You are funny. Which realignment are you talking about in NC?
Is it because of the APC chairman who can't win the governorship election despite federal might, sponsorship by the ex-governor,and massive rigging in his strongholds or what is the realignment?
With the way tinubu maltreated Al makura, Abdullahi Adamu and Co,NASARAWA IS OFF for him.
Is it benue that bandits are killing people and many are in the IDP camps,without PVCs or is it Abuja that,the land maladministration by wike is causing chaos or Niger state,where old guards are battling it for political survival that tinubu will win or kogi state that, there's tribal sentiments about the maltreatment of Natasha or it's kwara state that saraki is try to relaunch his political carrier and dominance or what exactly are you talking about?

dalongjnr:
You are funny. Which realignment are you talking about in NC?
Is it because of the APC chairman who can't win the governorship election despite federal might, sponsorship by the ex-governor,and massive rigging in his strongholds or what is the realignment?
With the way tinubu maltreated Al makura, Abdullahi Adamu and Co,NASARAWA IS OFF for him.
Is it benue that bandits are killing people and many are in the IDP camps,without PVCs or is it Abuja that,the land maladministration by wike is causing chaos or Niger state,where old guards are battling it for political survival that tinubu will win or kogi state that, there's tribal sentiments about the maltreatment of Natasha or it's kwara state that saraki is try to relaunch his political carrier and dominance or what exactly are you talking about?

Let me just give you a straight hint. Before the appointment of the Apc chairman from NC, I have been talking about pampering by this government to the region in terms of projects.

Check chunk of new projects by this government as see where they are located

helinues:
Let me just give you a straight hint. Before the appointment of the Apc chairman from NC, I have been talking about pampering by this government to the region in terms of projects.

Check chunk of new projects by this government as see where they are located

But even with these projects and appointments, Tinubu has never won more than 55% of Lagos either for himself or anybody else. What kind of political appointment changes the minds of 90% of the population who are suffering extreme hardship under Tinubu?

givedemwotowoto:
But even with these projects and appointments, Tinubu has never won more than 50% of Lagos either for himself or anybody else. What kind of political appointment changes the minds of 90% of the population who are suffering extreme hardship under Tinubu?

South West people don't put all their eggs in one basket. Highest votes president Tinubu can get in SW in 2027 can't be more than 65%< that's the highest

The beneficiaries of the projects and appointments, what would the opposition use to convince them not to vote for president Tinubu's reelection?

What about students on Nelfund?

Correct,Peter Gringory Obi of IPOB will win

Akungitit:
Correct,Peter Gringory Obi of IPOB will win

Hunger never tire una ?

President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu contested against a sitting vice president, senate president; he contested against a sitting CBN Governor, against his party chairman; cabals in the presidency worked tirelessly against him, all efforts were made to make him lose the election but he came out victorious. Now, the same man is the sitting President and some politicians who cannot win their ward for their party feel it will be easy to send him packing? They’ve made all their moves, the master is watching and smiling. The next move by the master strategist will throw them into a total confusion. As far as I’m concerned, 2027 will be easier for PBAT than 2023. We are all here!😁

Except, of course, he chooses not to run.

givedemwotowoto:
Even if Kwankwaso works with Tinubu in 2027, there’s no clear path to victory.



If you disagree, show us your own math. Election is a game of numbers.

go apply for the adc, or the Pdp, make they give u work.

Quite obvious that u are in need of critical activities to occupy your time?

givedemwotowoto:
But even with these projects and appointments, Tinubu has never won more than 50% of Lagos either for himself or anybody else. What kind of political appointment changes the minds of 90% of the population who are suffering extreme hardship under Tinubu?

hardship indeed, please speak for yourself, all this political propaganda u are promoting, quite obvious that your sponsors are not paying u sufficiently?

No one is talking about electoral reforms, or do we have a different INEC that conducted the election in Edo State eight months ago?

givedemwotowoto:
Even if Kwankwaso works with Tinubu in 2027, there’s no clear path to victory.



If you disagree, show us your own math. Election is a game of numbers.

Oga election is not totally based on priori reasoning. Some of us Christians that voted Atiku because he had a Christian vice have enjoyed the Muslim-Muslim ticket so much that we have resolved to continue with it. So other factors count and not just outright computation of figures based on past experience.

EmperorIsaac:
President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu contested against a sitting vice president, senate president; he contested against a sitting CBN Governor, against his party chairman; cabals in the presidency worked tirelessly against him, all efforts were made to make him lose the election but he came out victorious. Now, the same man is the sitting President and some politicians who cannot win their ward for their party feel it will be easy to send him packing? They’ve made all their moves, the master is watching and smiling. The next move by the master strategist will throw them into a total confusion. As far as I’m concerned, 2027 will be easier for PBAT than 2023. We are all here!😁

Except, of course, he chooses not to run.

Election is won by numbers. Put a number on this your hope

Deemas:
Oga election is not totally based on priori reasoning. Some of us Christians that voted Atiku because he had a Christian vice have enjoyed the Muslim-Muslim ticket so much that we have resolved to continue with it. So other factors count and not just outright computation of figures based on past experience.

Oya give me some numbers now. The same way you have decided to stay with him, others that voted for him have decided not to. Some give me some numbers

helinues:
Let me just give you a straight hint. Before the appointment of the Apc chairman from NC, I have been talking about pampering by this government to the region in terms of projects.

Check chunk of new projects by this government as see where they are located

Please,list the ones for plateau state and Benue.

givedemwotowoto:
Election is won by numbers. Put a number on this your hope

He is the current President of the Federal Republic.

helinues:
The very good thing is, it's only you people that are believing your own narrations, others have moved pass reading jokes from you people.

For months on this forum, we have been reading daily developments, projects, policy reforms under this government.

Just this morning, we read about N10m loan to Tertiary staff in our universities yet you guys are claiming this government has performed terribly.

Would you tell.the beneficiaries of some of those government programs that they haven't done a thing without receiving a slap?

This was equally what Jonathan did before his election failure and if most people from the west were not seeing his daily developmental programs then, how do you expect others to see Tinubu's own even in the midst of these high costs of food and essential?

Most of you are simply being emotional.


🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

seunmsg:
If you’re not a delusional Obidient, wake up every morning and give a special thanks to God. I swear, you no no wetin God do for you. As it stands now, some of these obidients go soon enter market with this level of crass delusion.

I am sure you read the message below but nonetheless chose to respond in an irràtiónal and illógical manner.

If you disagree, show us your own math. Election is a game of numbers.