₦airaland Forum

I like the liquidity

Agbalowomeri:
I hope you have the skills for jijo

Make you no go enter journey of no return

Na why I just respect myself stay my lane because I no fit carry old man bones run sprint

I am ok without being quoted directly .
Validation for kpakus he later sold after the farm became fbi top secret
Whr is video of the baby mill.
Some individuals here can build mill of that capacity in the shortest possible tim.
It is 3 tonnes not 30 tonnes lol
I believe your money is part of the conversion to equity. As the business is now family, friends and relatives way of covering thr bills in the name of conversion.
What is not possible in that kpakus does not exist. I have been enjoying this cruise long time

Let me do this for the JIJO folks; FCMB is about to start a journey to the next destination.

FCMB
Only God knows how many billions this seller have, that he doesn't want the stock to move up....
As he's dumping, people were mopping
He will sha exhaust it one day.....

167M+ volumes done so far...... 272M...

yMcy56:
FCMB
Only God knows how many billions this seller have, that he doesn't want the stock to move up....
As he's dumping, people were mopping
He will sha exhaust it one day.....

167M+ volumes done so far...

Those guys and Access are just one and the same, they will rise till +1 naira then they will return to base.

otokx:
Those guys and Access are just one and the same, they will rise till +1 naira then they will return to base.

I tire for the two!
Huge bids, na so he dey clear down to 10.20...
Fcmb will still be forced to move
See WEMA nah?

All these unusual activities needs to be reported at least.
Maybe it's cross purchases from one house to another..., because over N2.7bn was involved so far...

** They closed it @10.80

chimex38:
No worry, vehicle windows dey as wide as dem doors for every passenger to take off whatever the weight.

Meaning: OandO is liquid enough.
Caution noted.

And by overweight I meant to ji with billions, knowing his trading weight class.

Sterling bank will soon overtake FCMB

the game is game...........A painful reality, and unfortunately, it's true in some cases—whether it's through scams, market manipulation, or dishonest business practices. It’s a reminder of why vigilance, due diligence, and community awareness are so important, especially when it comes to financial decisions or trust-based relationships.

EDUECO:
Loco has jumped out of the rickety bus.

as usual loco recommended Royalex when much lower in price but fell into same error of anticipating a sustained rally to very high price

zendi:
And by overweight I meant to ji with billions, knowing his trading weight class.

I get you.
Thats why I said even the windows are wide enough whatever the weight Class.

Illiquid stocks only have the door as exit point.

For OandO, person fit wind the windscreen down sef for quick exit.

Streetinvestor2:
I am ok without being quoted directly .
Validation for kpakus he later sold after the farm became fbi top secret
Whr is video of the baby mill.
Some individuals here can build mill of that capacity in the shortest possible tim.
It is 3 tonnes not 30 tonnes lol
I believe your money is part of the conversion to equity. As the business is now family, friends and relatives way of covering thr bills in the name of conversion.
What is not possible in that kpakus does not exist. I have been enjoying this cruise long time

Talk about onado wey just released result, ellahlakes never released results na..

You go explain tire, no evidence, no evidence.
No sign of recovery..as you buy am in a crude way, naso you go sell am..



Your go hear weeen for wale hand.


No worries, we go give you another bonus share to hold, while the oga keep eating large n add it to administrative charges .

EDUECO:
O & O Yahozee Nig. Ltd.

In 2035, it will start paying dividends to the shellholders.

I asked chatGpt the downside potential. Hear its response: Alright 😅 — here we go:

At ₦53/share, with fair value around ₦5…

👉 The downside is roughly 90%.

That’s like buying a goat for ₦53k and finding out in the market it’s actually a ₦5k skinny chicken 🐐➡️🐓.

In short: if this price collapses, wallets go from Big Man Energy 💼💰 to Pure Water Seller Starter Pack 🍼💦 in one move!

EDUECO:
O & O Yahozee Nig. Ltd.

In 2035, it will start paying dividends to the shellholders.

Excellent — I’ve extracted the core financials from Oando Plc’s Q2 2025 report. Let’s execute a military‑grade forensic breakdown across your requested 13 fronts. This will be long and highly detailed.


---

🔎 Forensic Reconnaissance Report: Oando Plc Q2 2025


---

1. Income Statement (Tactical Revenue Analysis)

Revenue:

H1 2025: ₦1.72 trillion (↓15.3% YoY from ₦2.03 trillion).

Q2 2025 alone: ₦788.2bn vs ₦1.12tr Q2 2024 (↓29%).
→ Volume contraction or pricing decline; management notes suggest crude oil trading volumes fell due to lower offtake.


Gross Profit / Loss:

Q2 2025: ₦26.2bn gross loss vs ₦50.9bn profit last year.

H1 2025: ₦59.2bn profit, but margin down to 3.4% from 4.1%.
→ Negative Q2 gross margin suggests possible underlift/overlift or unhedged cost spikes.


Other Operating Income:

Massive swing: H1 2025 recorded ₦298bn loss vs ₦280bn gain in H1 2024.
→ This is the single largest driver of weaker operating results.


EBITDA / Operating Income:

H1 2025: ₦158.7bn operating loss vs ₦121.9bn profit in H1 2024.

Implies no scalability in the current cost base.


Finance Costs / Net Finance Result:

Finance costs ballooned to ₦194bn (vs ₦94bn prior).

Relief from ₦48bn reversal of default interest + ₦159bn finance income.

Net Finance result: ₦12.9bn gain vs ₦76bn loss prior.
→ Without these reversals, PBT would have been catastrophic.


Bottom Line:

PBT H1 2025: ₦145.7bn loss vs ₦45.5bn profit prior.

But after ₦209bn tax credit, Oando still posted ₦63.3bn PAT (flat YoY).
→ Profitability appears cosmetic, driven entirely by tax credits and one-offs.




---

2. Balance Sheet (Asset Armor Assessment)

Total Assets: ₦6.76trn (↑5.1% from Dec 2024).

Equity: Still negative at ₦305.9bn (though improved from ₦361bn deficit in Dec 2024).
→ Technically insolvent on book value.

Asset Quality:

PP&E flat at ₦3.16trn.

Intangibles stable (~₦1.03trn).

Receivables high: ₦582bn (↓22% YoY).

Restricted cash: ₦76bn vs ₦54bn prior.


Debt Profile:

Total borrowings: ₦3.19trn (up from ₦2.77trn).

Current borrowings: ₦1.12trn → significant short-term pressure.

Lease liabilities jumped from ₦8bn to ₦24bn short-term.


Retained Earnings: Negative ₦228bn, though improved from ₦292bn deficit.

Working Capital Stress:

Current liabilities ₦4.18trn vs Current assets ₦998bn → current ratio 0.24x.

Severe liquidity stress; reliant on rollovers.




---

3. Cash Flow Statement (True Liquidity Intelligence)

Operating Cash Flow:

H1 2025: ₦357bn cash burn vs ₦330bn burn in H1 2024.
→ Earnings not supported by cash.


Investing Cash Flow:

Net outflow ₦54bn (driven by ₦44bn CapEx).

Maintenance CapEx appears modest, but hedging costs ₦16bn.


Financing Cash Flow:

₦451bn inflow from borrowings; debt service ₦386bn.

Net financing inflow saved liquidity.


Cash at End: ₦194bn vs ₦155bn prior.

But includes ₦33bn overdraft.


Quality of Earnings: Weak. Cash profits diverge sharply from accounting profits.



---

4. Profitability Ratios (Return Combat Readiness)

ROE: Not meaningful; equity negative.

ROA: ~1.0% (PAT ₦63bn / Assets ₦6.76trn).

Margins:

Gross Margin: 3.4% (H1).

Net Margin: 3.7% (boosted by tax).


DuPont: ROE negative due to negative equity.



---

5. Liquidity Ratios (Short-Term Survival Scan)

Current Ratio: 0.24x (very weak).

Quick Ratio: ~0.23x (inventory negligible).

Cash Ratio: 0.05x.
→ Under any stress scenario, suppliers/creditors unlikely to be paid without fresh borrowing.



---

6. Solvency Ratios (Long-Term Risk Surveillance)

Debt/Equity: Not meaningful (equity negative).

Net Debt/EBITDA: EBITDA negative → solvency unsustainable.

Interest Coverage: Below 1x before extraordinary items.
→ Highly leveraged, dependent on restructurings & tax credits.



---

7. Efficiency Ratios (Operational Precision Audit)

Receivable Days: ~62 days.

Inventory Days: ~6 days → very lean.

Payable Days: Over 120 days → stretched supplier credit.

Cash Conversion Cycle: Negative → liquidity squeezed from payables reliance.



---

8. Valuation (Multifaceted Target Lock)

DCF:

Forecast free cash flows negative for 2025.

Assume WACC 20%, terminal growth 2%: DCF intrinsic value ~₦5/share (optimistic).


P/E Multiple:

Adjusted EPS ~₦0.15 annualized → At ₦13–15 market price, implied P/E ~85–100x.

Sector peers trade at 7–12x.


P/B: Negative book value; P/B not meaningful.


Fair Value Range: ₦4–6.

At market ~₦13–15, stock trades at a 200% premium to intrinsic.

No margin of safety.



---

9. Historical vs. Present Comparison (Time-Series Intel Mapping)

Revenue peaked >₦2trn in 2022–2024, now falling.

Margins under pressure since 2023.

Debt consistently increasing; equity negative since at least 2022.

Tax credits recurring → lifeline, not sustainable.



---

10. Peer Benchmarking (Battlefield Positioning)

Peers: Seplat, TotalEnergies, Eterna.

Seplat ROE ~15%, P/E ~8x; Oando: ROE N/A, P/E >80x.

Oando heavily indebted vs peers with healthier balance sheets.

Market pricing seems speculative rather than fundamental.



---

11. Notes to the Accounts (Codebreaker Review)

Tax Credits: ₦209bn → key to profitability; sustainability questionable.

Foreign Exchange Effects: ₦16bn OCI loss; ongoing Naira volatility risk.

Borrowing Guarantees: Historical note of US$32m obligations; legacy risks remain.



---

12. Management Commentary (Command Intent Evaluation)

Tone suggests optimism tied to upstream assets and trading.

No clear roadmap on debt restructuring.

Reliance on “non-cash” or “non-core” items to stabilize profit → signals deflection.



---

13. Red Flags & Manipulation Checks (Financial Forensics)

Beneish M-Score Indicators:

Revenue drop + inflated other income swings = risk.


Altman Z-Score: Likely <1.8 → high distress zone.

Creative Accounting Watch: Heavy reliance on reversals and tax credits.

Negative Equity: Oando effectively bankrupt on IFRS balance sheet.



---

🎯 Final Tactical Investment Recommendation

Verdict: SELL

Valuation detached from fundamentals (200% premium to fair value).

Equity remains negative → solvency risk.

Cash flows negative, profits artificial via tax credits.

High speculative sentiment risk — unsustainable without a major restructuring or oil price surge.



---

🚀 Forward-Looking Investor Conclusion

Strategic Position: Upstream portfolio remains valuable but heavily overleveraged.

Catalysts to Watch:

Debt restructuring or equity injection.

FX stability.

Oil price surge above $100/barrel.


Capital Allocation Fit: Not suitable for long-term capital appreciation portfolios unless you seek high-risk speculative exposure (<5% allocation).



---

⚠️ Would you like me to also run sensitivity models — e.g., Oando’s fair value under Brent $75, $90, and $100 scenarios? That would give us a battlefield map of upside/downside triggers.

SonofElElyonRet:
Sterling bank will soon overtake FCMB

Lol.
Telling us that FCMB is probably now the cheapest in that Sector..
Imagine Sterling getting closer again!
Gone are the days of FCMB's active MM, dey for dey chase Fidelity like anything by now..

otokx:
Those guys and Access are just one and the same, they will rise till +1 naira then they will return to base.

Access Fundamentals are far better than FCMB:

Dijita:
Access Fundamentals are far better than FCMB:

True
ACCESS has the lowest PE ratio in that sector and so it is the cheapest

DeRuggedProff:
I asked chatGpt the downside potential. Hear its response: Alright 😅 — here we go:

At ₦53/share, with fair value around ₦5…

👉 The downside is roughly 90%.

That’s like buying a goat for ₦53k and finding out in the market it’s actually a ₦5k skinny chicken 🐐➡️🐓.

In short: if this price collapses, wallets go from Big Man Energy 💼💰 to Pure Water Seller Starter Pack 🍼💦 in one move!

He worst reach this level? #5 ke..

Dijita:
Access Fundamentals are far better than FCMB:

referring to the stock price movements not the "fundamentals"

I keep to my word.one don chop block for quoting me.I like the space to my post lol
When ur post don't have value you can keep it to yourself. You can't be using mine to be looking for team support...when I no dey among ur village people

megawealth01:
Start from page one here so you will understand that "once upon fundamentally sound stocks can disappear in the long term..."

Get knowledge about the rules of the game first

Vectoryoko:
Where to start from?

Haba that is not necessary...
Vectoryoko simply begin to diligently follow the discussion here henceforth to get familiar with the intricacies of the market also register with a stockbrokerage maybe Morgan capital so you can immediately start practical learning. use N10,000 to N100,000 depending on your pocket. Then pretend it is N1,000,000 or N10,000,000. You will make profit, you will make losses and you will learn without the school fees (pain). When you begin making consistent profits then you may use your true capital.

DeRuggedProff:
I asked chatGpt the downside potential. Hear its response: Alright 😅 — here we go:

At ₦53/share, with fair value around ₦5…

👉 The downside is roughly 90%.

That’s like buying a goat for ₦53k and finding out in the market it’s actually a ₦5k skinny chicken 🐐➡️🐓.

In short: if this price collapses, wallets go from Big Man Energy 💼💰 to Pure Water Seller Starter Pack 🍼💦 in one move!

AI even tried for giving it a fair value of ₦5; I cannot buy this company even at 5 Kobo.

It is 99% certain that this company has never made a loss in the real sense;but all the management has been doing is to cook the accounts to make it seem like the company has been making losses.

The invented loss goes to the corrupt management team as the reward for their deceptive bookkeeping.

The management lacks integrity.

DeRuggedProff:
Excellent — I’ve extracted the core financials from Oando Plc’s Q2 2025 report. Let’s execute a military‑grade forensic breakdown across your requested 13 fronts. This will be long and highly detailed.

🔎 Forensic Reconnaissance Report: Oando Plc Q2 2025

1. Income Statement (Tactical Revenue Analysis)
Revenue:
H1 2025: ₦1.72 trillion (↓15.3% YoY from ₦2.03 trillion).

Q2 2025 alone: ₦788.2bn vs ₦1.12tr Q2 2024 (↓29%).
→ Volume contraction or pricing decline; management notes suggest crude oil trading volumes fell due to lower offtake.

Gross Profit / Loss:
Q2 2025: ₦26.2bn gross loss vs ₦50.9bn profit last year.
H1 2025: ₦59.2bn profit, but margin down to 3.4% from 4.1%.
→ Negative Q2 gross margin suggests possible underlift/overlift or unhedged cost spikes.

Other Operating Income:

Massive swing: H1 2025 recorded ₦298bn loss vs ₦280bn gain in H1 2024.
→ This is the single largest driver of weaker operating results.


EBITDA / Operating Income:

H1 2025: ₦158.7bn operating loss vs ₦121.9bn profit in H1 2024.

Implies no scalability in the current cost base.


Finance Costs / Net Finance Result:
Finance costs ballooned to ₦194bn (vs ₦94bn prior).

Relief from ₦48bn reversal of default interest + ₦159bn finance income.

Net Finance result: ₦12.9bn gain vs ₦76bn loss prior.
→ Without these reversals, PBT would have been catastrophic.


Bottom Line:
PBT H1 2025: ₦145.7bn loss vs ₦45.5bn profit prior.

But after ₦209bn tax credit, Oando still posted ₦63.3bn PAT (flat YoY).
→ Profitability appears cosmetic, driven entirely by tax credits and one-offs.
---
2. Balance Sheet (Asset Armor Assessment)
Total Assets: ₦6.76trn (↑5.1% from Dec 2024).

Equity: Still negative at ₦305.9bn (though improved from ₦361bn deficit in Dec 2024).
→ Technically insolvent on book value.

Asset Quality:
PP&E flat at ₦3.16trn.

Intangibles stable (~₦1.03trn).

Receivables high: ₦582bn (↓22% YoY).

Restricted cash: ₦76bn vs ₦54bn prior.


Debt Profile:
Total borrowings: ₦3.19trn (up from ₦2.77trn).
Current borrowings: ₦1.12trn → significant short-term pressure.
Lease liabilities jumped from ₦8bn to ₦24bn short-term.


Retained Earnings: Negative ₦228bn, though improved from ₦292bn deficit.

Working Capital Stress:
Current liabilities ₦4.18trn vs Current assets ₦998bn → current ratio 0.24x.
Severe liquidity stress; reliant on rollovers.

3. Cash Flow Statement (True Liquidity Intelligence)
Operating Cash Flow:
H1 2025: ₦357bn cash burn vs ₦330bn burn in H1 2024.
→ Earnings not supported by cash.

Investing Cash Flow:
Net outflow ₦54bn (driven by ₦44bn CapEx).
Maintenance CapEx appears modest, but hedging costs ₦16bn.


Financing Cash Flow:
₦451bn inflow from borrowings; debt service ₦386bn.

Net financing inflow saved liquidity.

Cash at End: ₦194bn vs ₦155bn prior.

But includes ₦33bn overdraft.


Quality of Earnings: Weak. Cash profits diverge sharply from accounting profits.

4. Profitability Ratios (Return Combat Readiness)

ROE: Not meaningful; equity negative.

ROA: ~1.0% (PAT ₦63bn / Assets ₦6.76trn).

Margins:
Gross Margin: 3.4% (H1).
Net Margin: 3.7% (boosted by tax).


DuPont: ROE negative due to negative equity.

5. Liquidity Ratios (Short-Term Survival Scan)
Current Ratio: 0.24x (very weak).
Quick Ratio: ~0.23x (inventory negligible).

Cash Ratio: 0.05x.
→ Under any stress scenario, suppliers/creditors unlikely to be paid without fresh borrowing.

6. Solvency Ratios (Long-Term Risk Surveillance)
Debt/Equity: Not meaningful (equity negative).
Net Debt/EBITDA: EBITDA negative → solvency unsustainable.

Interest Coverage: Below 1x before extraordinary items.
→ Highly leveraged, dependent on restructurings & tax credits.

7. Efficiency Ratios (Operational Precision Audit)
Receivable Days: ~62 days.
Inventory Days: ~6 days → very lean.
Payable Days: Over 120 days → stretched supplier credit.
Cash Conversion Cycle: Negative → liquidity squeezed from payables reliance.

8. Valuation (Multifaceted Target Lock)
DCF:
Forecast free cash flows negative for 2025.
Assume WACC 20%, terminal growth 2%: DCF intrinsic value ~₦5/share (optimistic).
P/E Multiple:
Adjusted EPS ~₦0.15 annualized → At ₦13–15 market price, implied P/E ~85–100x.
Sector peers trade at 7–12x.
P/B: Negative book value; P/B not meaningful.
Fair Value Range: ₦4–6.
At market ~₦13–15, stock trades at a 200% premium to intrinsic.
No margin of safety.

9. Historical vs. Present Comparison (Time-Series Intel Mapping)
Revenue peaked >₦2trn in 2022–2024, now falling.
Margins under pressure since 2023.
Debt consistently increasing; equity negative since at least 2022.
Tax credits recurring → lifeline, not sustainable.

10. Peer Benchmarking (Battlefield Positioning)
Peers: Seplat, TotalEnergies, Eterna.
Seplat ROE ~15%, P/E ~8x; Oando: ROE N/A, P/E >80x.
Oando heavily indebted vs peers with healthier balance sheets.
Market pricing seems speculative rather than fundamental.

11. Notes to the Accounts (Codebreaker Review)
Tax Credits: ₦209bn → key to profitability; sustainability questionable.
Foreign Exchange Effects: ₦16bn OCI loss; ongoing Naira volatility risk.
Borrowing Guarantees: Historical note of US$32m obligations; legacy risks remain.

12. Management Commentary (Command Intent Evaluation)
Tone suggests optimism tied to upstream assets and trading.
No clear roadmap on debt restructuring.
Reliance on “non-cash” or “non-core” items to stabilize profit → signals deflection.

13. Red Flags & Manipulation Checks (Financial Forensics)
Beneish M-Score Indicators:
Revenue drop + inflated other income swings = risk.


Altman Z-Score: Likely <1.8 → high distress zone.

Creative Accounting Watch: Heavy reliance on reversals and tax credits.

Negative Equity: Oando effectively bankrupt on IFRS balance sheet.

🎯 Final Tactical Investment Recommendation

Verdict: SELL
Valuation detached from fundamentals (200% premium to fair value).

Equity remains negative → solvency risk.
Cash flows negative, profits artificial via tax credits.
High speculative sentiment risk — unsustainable without a major restructuring or oil price surge.

🚀 Forward-Looking Investor Conclusion

Strategic Position: Upstream portfolio remains valuable but heavily overleveraged.

Catalysts to Watch:

Debt restructuring or equity injection.
FX stability.
Oil price surge above $100/barrel.
Capital Allocation Fit: Not suitable for long-term capital appreciation portfolios unless you seek high-risk speculative exposure (<5% allocation).

⚠️ Would you like me to also run sensitivity models — e.g., Oando’s fair value under Brent $75, $90, and $100 scenarios? That would give us a battlefield map of upside/downside triggers.

You may run sensitivity analyses based on conservative 50%-75% success in their bid to raise N500bn and $1.5bn in fresh capital be year end 2025

DeRuggedProff:
I asked chatGpt the downside potential. Hear its response: Alright 😅 — here we go:

At ₦53/share, with fair value around ₦5…

👉 The downside is roughly 90%.

That’s like buying a goat for ₦53k and finding out in the market it’s actually a ₦5k skinny chicken 🐐➡️🐓.

In short: if this price collapses, wallets go from Big Man Energy 💼💰 to Pure Water Seller Starter Pack 🍼💦 in one move!

The loss the management always declare goes to them as the reward for their deception.If the company goes bankrupt,the management has nothing to lose

EDUECO:
AI even tried for giving it a fair value of ₦5; I cannot buy this company even at 5 Kobo.

It is 99% certain that this company has never made a loss in the real sense;but all the management has been doing is to cook the accounts to make it seem like the company has been making losses.

The invented loss goes to the corrupt management team as the reward for their deceptive bookkeeping.

The management lacks integrity.

What about the bonus share they are distributing, wouldn't you still value it more because of that.


Bonus lanje.....

WAPCO did not change today despite the huge volume traded.

Haven't we learnt anything this year? This is Nigeria: Fundamentals don't matter.

megawealth01:
Oando Nigeria PLC

DeRuggedProff:
Excellent — I’ve extracted the core financials from Oando Plc’s Q2 2025 report. Let’s execute a military‑grade forensic breakdown across your requested 13 fronts. This will be long and highly detailed.

.

De Prof i will grateful if you can be kind enough to share the prompt that generated the above.

Two months distribution loading

these are parts of the lies the cowboys want us to believe so they can steal every thing until price go up and never come down

DeRuggedProff:
I asked chatGpt the downside potential. Hear its response: Alright 😅 — here we go:

At ₦53/share, with fair value around ₦5…

👉 The downside is roughly 90%.

That’s like buying a goat for ₦53k and finding out in the market it’s actually a ₦5k skinny chicken 🐐➡️🐓.

In short: if this price collapses, wallets go from Big Man Energy 💼💰 to Pure Water Seller Starter Pack 🍼💦 in one move!

crownprince2017:
What about the bonus share they are distributing, wouldn't you still value it more because of that.


Bonus lanje.....

It is like a ponzi,you never know when the bubble will burst.

Agbalowomeri:
Two months distribution loading

Baba speak English na.