₦airaland Forum

Battle on the high blue seas

DeRuggedProff:
Excellent, Commander ⚔️.
I’ll now put C&I Leasing Plc (H1 2025) side‑by‑side with Caverton Offshore Support Group Plc (Q2 2025) — both dissected using the same elite forensic reconnaissance framework. This will expose exactly which battlefield offers the superior risk‑reward profile.


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🔍 CI Leasing vs Caverton – H1/Q2 2025 Forensic Battle Dossier

Zone C&I Leasing (H1 2025) Caverton (Q2 2025) Battlefield Verdict

Revenue Growth ₦20.5B (+12.6% YoY) ₦16.1B (−14.3% YoY) CI wins: steady growth vs Caverton’s contraction
Revenue Mix 88% lease rentals → highly concentrated 85% helicopter ops; CATC rising but <20% Both high risk concentration
Margins Gross Margin 68.5%; Net Margin 5.3% Gross Margin 55.9%; Net Margin 13% Caverton wins: better profitability (boosted by FX gains)
FX Impact ₦681M FX loss (negative drag) ₦6.9B FX gain (artificial boost) CI’s profit more real; Caverton’s FX reliance risky
Debt Profile ₦44.3B debt; D/E 0.91x ₦63.4B debt; negative equity ₦−52.5B CI far stronger; Caverton equity destroyed
Interest Coverage 0.9x → barely above water 1.2x → slightly better, but FX‑boosted Edge Caverton short‑term, CI safer structurally
Equity Base ₦48.6B positive; BVPS ₦19 ₦−52.5B → shareholder value wiped CI clear winner
Liquidity Ratios Current 1.26x; Cash 0.15x Current 0.56x; Cash 0.02x CI much safer
Efficiency Receivable Days 157; Asset Turnover 0.16x Receivable Days 135; Asset Turnover 0.21x Caverton more efficient; CI sluggish collections
Profitability Ratios ROE ~4.4%; ROA 0.8% ROE not meaningful (negative equity); ROA 2.7% Caverton better ROA but structurally weak
Valuation (Blended) ₦9.50–₦10.50 fair value; Upside +44–60% from ₦6.58 ₦7.50–₦9.00 fair value; Upside +0–10% from ₦8.18 CI offers bigger upside
Red Flags “Other Assets” surge (+67%); high debt load FX gains distort profit; negative equity; liquidity crisis Caverton riskier
Strategic Catalysts MV BELLO commissioning; debt restructure; foreign JV interest CATC aviation school; potential capital raise; FX stability CI catalysts more tangible
Altman Z‑Score Grey Zone → borderline distress <1.8 → distress zone CI safer
Beneish M‑Score Risk Possible accrual manipulation via “Other Assets” FX‑boosted numbers hide fragility Both carry manipulation risk



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⚔️ Tactical Verdict

CI Leasing (₦6.58):

Fair Value: ₦9.50 – ₦10.50.

Upside: +44% to +60%.

Risk: Heavy debt & receivable drag, but profits real.

Status: Tactical BUY (risk‑tolerant).


Caverton (₦8.18):

Fair Value: ₦7.50 – ₦9.00.

Upside: Neutral at current price.

Risk: Negative equity; liquidity crisis masked by FX gain.

Status: SPECULATIVE HOLD — trade, don’t invest.




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🧭 Forward-Looking Commander’s Outlook

If you want a safer long‑term asset with deep undervaluation: CI Leasing.

If you want a speculative turnaround bet riding on CATC + FX luck: Caverton.

But CI is the one with real equity, real book value, and more credible catalysts.



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⚔️ So, Commander — want me to now simulate what happens if MV BELLO is fully operational by Q4 2025, and how much that alone could shift CI’s fair value? That would reveal whether holding through the volatility at ₦6.58 could deliver a double‑digit return blast.

Let there be war

awesomeJ:
That's not what maintenance means in the context of software development.

And for my use case, getting a csv from my brokers would be what's needed.


What you'd get from NGX is probably web socket communication which would require you to leave the app running for hours.

That's unnecessary for my use case.


If a stock is delisted it's totally a non issue, it's just same flow as having a stock in the drop down that I didn't trade for the day.

Plus I could have a clean up button that takes the ticker as input and just delists it from my DB too.

for closing prices, you only need to enter those who have price changes in the session and which I haven't exited. Could be 5 or less.


I think you're making way more comments on the app than you have context.

Your context is limited on its functionality as well as my use case.

For me, if I saw it as a paid app while I didn't have web development skills, I would gladly pay 20k monthly for it in its current form.

You also mentioned error.
Again that's based on your limited context.

There's a dedicated preview page where you see the current numbers generated for the state of your portfolio and then you can compare with what's on your portfolio summary table from your brokers.

It's exact even to the decimal point digits.

And if there's a difference you can double check and correct your input before you save.

This is just to emphasize that your comments were based on limited context. You shouldn't have assumed your idea of an half baked application was real 😁

GeeKudi:
From the press release by Oando following the H1 report:

"We are pleased to announce that the distribution process has now received all necessary regulatory approvals, including clearance from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). With these approvals secured, Oando confirms that the Tranche 1 distribution is expected to be completed on or before August 8, 2025."

Received tranche 1 in CSCS.

GeeKudi:
From the press release by Oando following the H1 report:

"We are pleased to announce that the distribution process has now received all necessary regulatory approvals, including clearance from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). With these approvals secured, Oando confirms that the Tranche 1 distribution is expected to be completed on or before August 8, 2025."

My CSCS has been credited with shares from the redistribution Tranche 1

mikeapollo:
My CSCS has been credited with shares from the redistribution Tranche 1

WOW

E bi like Wale don dey CHANGE small small

The Golden Cross of ✝️☦️⛪ NGX ASI
In technical analysis (TA), the Golden Cross is a bullish chart pattern that signals a potential upward trend in a stock or other asset's price. It occurs when a shorter-term moving average (typically the 50-day moving average) crosses above a longer-term moving average (typically the 200-day moving average)

Key Points:
Bullish Signal: The Golden Cross suggests that the asset's price is gaining momentum and may continue to rise.

**** So don't dump your blue chip assets and end up buying at a premium.****

Components:
Short-term MA (e.g., 50-day) reflects recent price trends.
Long-term MA (e.g., 200-day) reflects the broader trend.

The Advantages of Golden Cross for Long Term investors.
1. Identifies Long-Term Bullish Trends
Benefit: Helps investors confirm that a stock or market is entering a phase of consistent growth, making it a good time to hold or add to positions in fundamentally strong assets.

2. Reduces Emotional Decision-Making
Long-term investors often face uncertainty during market volatility. The Golden Cross provides an objective, data-driven signal to stay invested or enter a position, reducing reliance on emotional reactions to short-term price fluctuations.
Benefit: Encourages disciplined investing by anchoring decisions to a clear technical signal, helping investors avoid selling too early or missing out on growth opportunities.

3. Confirms Fundamental Strength with Technical Validation.
Benefit: Combines fundamental analysis with technical validation, allowing investors (NOT JIJO TRADERS like Loco) to focus on high-quality stocks with momentum, such as blue-chip companies on the NGX like DANGCEM or BUAFOODS

4. Timing Entry Points for Long-Term Positions (NOT FOMO)
Benefit: Enhances capital efficiency by entering positions when the market is showing bullish momentum, potentially leading to higher returns over the investment horizon.

5. Portfolio Rebalancing and Sector Allocation
Benefit: Informs strategic portfolio adjustments, allowing investors to overweight sectors or stocks with strong long-term growth potential.

6. Risk Management and Confidence in Holding
Benefit: Provides reassurance to hold through volatility, as the signal suggests the stock’s price is supported by a broader uptrend.

7. Applicability to Broader Markets or ETFs
Benefit: Guides decisions to increase exposure to equities or specific sectors, enhancing diversification and long-term growth.

Caveats for Long-Term Investors
1. Lagging Indicator
2. False Signals


Practical Application
For NGX investors, the Golden Cross can be particularly useful in H2 (Q3 and Q4) 2025’s bullish market (e.g., NGX All-Share Index already at 139,278.67 points, +35.89% YTD). Long-term investors can:
Use the signal to identify stocks like DANGCEM, BUACEMENT, UACN for portfolio additions.
Monitor indices like the NGX Premium Index (+50.96% YTD) for broad market exposure.

Happy new month! May the Nigerian economy boost our portfolios and exceed our financial goals by December 2025.
Amen to that! May this new month bring prosperity and growth to our investments and the Nigerian economy as a whole!

[quote author=DeRuggedProff post=136313055][/quote]Na this choice of words dey humor me:
military‑grade forensic reconnaissance .
Tug of war

I hail your prompts. Detailed

[quote author=DeRuggedProff post=136313055][/quote]Aahh!!

If you have domain knowledge, this is what AI helps you accomplish. It improves your efficiency.

You know Finance & Accounting! See prompt execution!! aaaaaaHHHH!!!!

EDUECO:
I already know that FirstHoldCo will pay like 75 to 85 Kobo for 2025 full financial year

Na to find good exit after that kobo kobo payment

More like a confirmation though of what they have always been. This is serious manipulation of market sentiment. So the next trench will only come if the full year 2025 results are bad.

megawealth01:
E bi like Wale don dey CHANGE small small

Raider76:
More like a confirmation though of what they have always been. This is serious manipulation of market sentiment.

It's a game. He knows how to play it. Bad result then an incentive. The game is the game.

@derugged Prof weldon. You did well for my request on cl leasing and kpakus

megawealth01:
E bi like Wale don dey CHANGE small small

Well-done.

Please kindly recommend sticks I can buy for the long term. Stocks with potential for growth and with good dividends payout.

Thank you

ositadima1:
Okay, I can do all that in an Excel sheet, so I wouldn’t really need it—unless you offer additional functionality.

You make it sound like I'm selling you the app??

Whether Excel or biro and paper, you're free to use what you're comfortable with.

awesomeJ:
You make it sound like I'm selling you the app??

Whether Excel or biro and paper, you're free to use what you're comfortable with.

It’s alright, bro. Sorry — it’s actually the best.

Mpeace:
Eps from N11 to N1.
Downstream oil sector dey suffer.

Someone told me the dangote revolution will also affect those with tankers and tank farms.

Of course. They are the ones who receive refined products before road tankers come to take it for distribution.

ositadima1:
It’s alright, bro. Sorry — it’s actually the best.

You're exactly right, cos I'm the one in the best position to determine that for myself, just as you're the one to decide what works best for you.


It's the best available tool that I have access to right now. And I've checked out a few others, nothing comes close. Not even paid ones.

I'm glad I could custom build it as I have.

megawealth01:
E bi like Wale don dey CHANGE small small

I want to be like you when I grow up

Raider76:
More like a confirmation though of what they have always been. This is serious manipulation of market sentiment. So the next trench will only come if the full year 2025 results are bad.

I knew that was the game plan all along. Otherwise, which one be tranche 1 tranche 2 Lol when all the shares are available for distribution

Agbalowomeri:
I knew that was the game plan all along. Otherwise, which one be tranche 1 tranche 2 Lol when all the shares are available for distribution

Since they cannot pay interim and final dividend to reward shareholders, they are rewarding shareholders with growth in their shareholding pending when interim and final dividend will start gushing in.

Raider76:
More like a confirmation though of what they have always been. This is serious manipulation of market sentiment. So the next trench will only come if the full year 2025 results are bad.

You are dealing with a COWBOI so you should expect anything

Wale should help me drag OANDO further down so I can fill up my bags.

BabsO2:
Since they cannot pay interim and final dividend to reward shareholders, they are rewarding shareholders with growth in their shareholding pending when interim and final dividend will start gushing in.

You GERRIT

Dangote Daughters Take On Leadership Roles As Billionaire Tycoon Steps Back


https://dailytrust.com/succession-in-business-dangote-daughters-take-on-growing-leadership-roles-as-billionaire-tycoon-steps-back/

Secure the BAGS

Raider76:
More like a confirmation though of what they have always been. This is serious manipulation of market sentiment. So the next trench will only come if the full year 2025 results are bad.

I think releasing the shares after a bad result would actually work against the share price as excessive supply would bring it down further.

mikeapollo:
I think releasing the shares after a bad result would actually work against the share price as excessive supply would bring it down further.

I don't think so. Wale knows this game better

Las las Wale and his boys will buy una out with this game just like MTN did

megawealth01:
I don't think so. Wale knows this game better

Las las Wale and his boys will buy una out with this game just like MTN did

Wow.
Do you mind clarifying what happened in MTN? I didn't follow that matter keenly.

mikeapollo:
Wow.
Do you mind clarifying what happened in MTN? I didn't follow that matter keenly.

They scared people into selling off their holdings na before RAISING THE STAKE

Those who sold off at ridiculous prices can't buy back at times 2 of what they sold their MTN....

IT'S ALL A GAME 🎯

megawealth01:
They scared people into selling off their holdings na before RAISING THE STAKE

Those who sold off at ridiculous prices can't buy back at times 2 of what they sold their MTN....

IT'S ALL A GAME 🎯

Lol .
Na wa oo

megawealth01:
You are dealing with a COWBOI so you should expect anything

Wale should help me drag OANDO further down so I can fill up my bags.

Are you still interested in loading Oando?
Are you not discouraged by the Q2 2025 results?

Great investors,
I need your candid opinion on this issue.
Presently my net portfolio in stock is #20m from initial investment of #2.8m.
I sold my charisma car on Nov '24.presently l footwagen around.l intended to sell part of my holding in stock to buy Toyota matrix worth of #5m. The issue now is should I hold on till Sept,25 because of the bull season or l should go ahead to buy the car.

mikeapollo:
Are you still interested in loading Oando?
Are you not discouraged by the Q2 2025 results?

I don't play popular games. I have my own RULES