₦airaland Forum

emmaodet:
AI? in Oil and gas? And you believe that? To reduce cost?
The Oando management is a very funny and crafty one.

emmaodet:
AI? in Oil and gas? And you believe that? To reduce cost?
The Oando management is a very funny and crafty one.

megawealth01:
Man must wack

Streetinvestor2:
Like I knew. I started suspecting it since the beginning of this yr.
That is why when you go against thr hatched plan to sell any junks by thr god in the group you see team support and attack plus likes to thr member post
I had thought it was only email thing. So they now have Wattsup group. You have confirmed we now have a cabals in this thread.
Thank God I be street. I be one man army.
I have been blocking but refused to block some so that they can be reporting back to the group on my attacks..lol.

So which group you dey Agba and one madam that blocked me.lwkd

ProphetUtuocha:
Value investors
Are accumulating Oando
While folks panic-sale

ProphetUtuocha:
So much noise on Oando, but what do we decipher from their recent data?

A fair value analysis based on Oando PLC’s unaudited H1 2025 financial results (for the six months ended 30 June 2025):

0-1Revenue was ₦1.72 trillion (~US $1.12 billion), down ~15% year‑on‑year, mainly due to softer trading volumes and lower realized prices  .

299-0Upstream production surged by ~63% YoY to ~37,012 boepd, supported by integration of NAOC assets, higher uptime, and revamped facilities  .

474-0Gross profit declined 28% to ₦59 billion; operating loss hit ₦158 billion despite net profit of ₦63 billion, boosted by a sizable tax credit and strong finance income (~₦159 billion finance income; ₦209 billion tax credit)  .

735-0Profit‑after‑tax stood at ₦63 billion, essentially flat YoY (~₦62.6 billion in H1 2024)  .

📊 Valuation & Fair Price Estimate

1. Earnings Power

H1 PAT ≈ ₦63 billion → Annualize to ~₦120 billion (assuming H2 performance rebounds).

If the full‑year 2025 profit reaches ₦150 billion (given upstream gains and turnaround from H2), and assuming 2 billion shares outstanding, EPS ≈ ₦75/share.

2. P/E Multiples & Comparables

Nigerian energy peer group typically trades between P/E 8–12×.

Applying P/E of 10→ fair value ≈ ₦750/share; at P/E 8→ ₦600/share; at P/E 12→ ₦900/share.


3. Asset‑Based / DCF Sketch

Upstream reserves ~983 MMboe → long‑term value, especially with expansion into Angola.

Capex guidance of $250–270 million for H2 and drilling; if production rises beyond 40k boepd and oil price stays strong, cash flow improves meaningfully.

Simplified discounted cash flow (very rough): if free cash flow stabilizes at ₦200 billion/year (~US $160 million) with WACC of 12%, a perpetuity value ≈ ₦1.67 trillion → per share fair value ~₦830 (assuming ~2 b shares).

🔍 Summary Fair Value Range

Method Estimated Value (₦/share)

P/E = 8× ~600
P/E = 10× ~750 (central estimate)
P/E = 12× ~900
Simplistic DCF ~830
Implied fair range **₦600–900 per share**

🚩 Key Risks & Considerations

AGGRESSIVE tax credits and finance income distorted H1 earnings; H2 may not repeat that boost.

Volatility in global oil prices, FX rates, and downstream trading margins could swing actual profits.

862-15Balance‑sheet concerns: equity had negative retained earnings at H1 (summed group Equity ≈ ₦−270 billion)  .

Capital restructuring and debt conversion plans are underway—these may dilute existing shareholders or alter capital structure.

✅ Bottom‑Line Estimate

If H2 execution picks up and trading improves, ₦700–800 per share seems a reasonable fair‑value midpoint today. A conservative stance using a modest P/E of 8 yields ₦600, while a more optimistic surprise or smoother H2 execution justifies nearer ₦900.

ProphetUtuocha:
Value investors
Are accumulating Oando
While folks panic-sale

ProphetUtuocha:
Value investors
Are accumulating Oando
While folks panic-sale

orriyomi33:
Good morning sir.
Happy weekend.

This is the planned reconstruction of the Muritala Muhammed international airport.

It will have a long lasting effect on the Nigeria's aviation industry.

NAHCO is a major company in the aviation sector, I am thinking of the impact this would have on it and other stocks in the aviation market considering the improved efficiency.

What do you think?

mikeapollo:
Are you saying it is impossible for AI to be used in oil and gas?
Do you have an idea about all the possible uses of AI and very sure it can never be used in oil and gas operations?

mikeapollo:
You have to re-run your analysis.
OANDO has 12.43 billion shares outstanding , not the 2 billion used in your calculations

Valthegreat:
Madam abeg which stock picks delivered this 750% growth to you since November '24 abi no be the same market we dey?

chinonsobest:
Agba, you don go wake Street . With this your new revelations, we will not rest this week!

jeshurun08:
There is the time value of money. How long did it take you to make 20m from 2.8? That will give you an idea of how long it will take you to gain back the money you have spent and the opportunity cost in terms of how much you would have otherwise made if you keep your portfolio. I hope this helps.

Hamachi:
Happy new week to all.

Let me share this:

In this market ehm, during period when results (financial reports) are released, if you do not do your own analysis of your identified financial report, then get ready to take whatever analysis is given to you by another party oh for better for worse.

I have seen people downplaying the bad in their analysis of a worst result, while some waterdown the good in a best results.

I have seen people castigate fundamentals analysis (analysis of the financial and operational health of a company) when the report doesn't go their way and in no distance time praise to high heaven, when the report favours them.

I have seen people go mute when their high flying recommendations of a stock published a not so good report, as well as others, that continue to give excuses for a poor result (you would think they are part of the management).

I have seen people use jokes, innuendos, bashing of opposing analysis and other deceptive and evasive tactics on a stock with bad fundamental, so that the market would not punish the bad performance of a company and/or reward the good performance of another.

I have seen sensational headlines and contents in newspapers about company report that doesn't reflect the complete or true picture.

I have noticed that some wonderful results of some companies are not even recognize or analyzed. The best case scenario such company could have is just some passively passing comment.

I have seen the price movement of various stocks not following the expected financial report due to high level of sentimental, hope and/or manipulation of deceit.

I have seen report analysis that are quite objective and others that are quite subjective.

I have seen some analyst bash and tick to death a company would not so good financial report and in other scenario pamper and treat another company with same not so good financial report.

I have seen management of company window dress what would had been a calamitous result or introduce financial principles and calculations that would confuse the investing public.


NB: Always have this at the back of your mind, most people who have a stock in his/her portfolio that just released a very poor financial report would find it *difficult to recommend a sell.* Some would after fews days would start touting buy, buy, buy while looking for exit points for their benefit (Humans forget easily with so many thing in our mind).

Also, most people who have a stock in his/her portfolio that just released a very good financial report would find it *easy to recommend a buy.* Some would after fews days would start touting sell, sell, sell, when they want to accumulate more for their benefit (Humans forget easily with so many thing in our mind).


These and others I have seen. What have you seen? Which have you taken or not taken because you didn't due your own due diligence?

May this week be favorable to us all.

Mpeace:
Eps from N11 to N1.
Downstream oil sector dey suffer.

Someone told me the dangote revolution will also affect those with tankers and tank farms.

Agbalowomeri:
You no know say groups get WhatsApp where they make plans and come here to hatch it?

lostinHeaven:
She wants to capture new members

Streetinvestor2:
You won't understand. I knew emails existed but start suspecting since this yr that this people could have transformed to watsup group. The way some apologies or say they are still in a particular stock when they feel they must have said something wrong. The way they call for team support, validation and give likes.Then you must not say anything against thr audios even when they speak from two side of thr mouth. Then they come out with similar sentence .
Bros if you no shine eyes again for this thread they go chop you maga oh.Play the game with them using long spoon. This place walahi is the only office thr ogas have oh.leave all those audio claims. I be street and igbo man join.Go to markets dominated by igbos.The audio importers they always be 10x to the real importers. Person go carry you enter shop sell you monkey hand making you believe he owns the shop.Na few they get true shop many na guy men way wan chop you maga.This thread has become main market onitsha oh

megawealth01:
I honestly don't talk about NAHCO because I got in at less than 3 naira in 2020 and I bought a large volume. I haven't regretted it ever since. It's a rich STOCK but I can't give you entry for what I bought at a very ridiculous PRICE

If you have noticed my body language about stocks I SOMETIMES don't give buys about most stocks In heavily in

Valthegreat:
You caught the drift.
Newbies beware of such accounts making wild claims here, don't DM them for any personal chats before they rip you off.

SonofElElyonRet:
Prophet no rely on prophecy again. Una don put am under pressure. Him don dey shalaye with workings

EDUECO:
Him analysis be like paralysis!

Prophet say the value of Oando na between 700 to 800 Naira? I sure say prophet done high.

EDUECO:
See 2 members of the email ga.ng

Make we start to dey expose them here.

Wetin una want discuss wey una no fit discuss fo here ,if not be monkey hunting?