₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
So the cbn is the one determining the exchange value indirectly as they like.So how do we now say this is truly what naira should exchange or are u agree 1500 is what it worth to a dollar

In a normal society, banks determine the exchange rate because most of the trading are done there. The BDC’s are mostly at the airports and they also buy from banks to serve tourists and travelers mainly. That’s all.
In these normal situations, banks and central banks activities in the market determines the rate not BDC’s or aboki’s.
BDC’s or aboki can only add their small premiums to the rates but the more they are supplied by banks, the more some BDC’s begin to reduce their rates too. Market foxes.

ositadima1:
I don’t think your comparison is correct. Unlike now, when we have fuel in abundance, dollars are still scarce. What’s really happening is that the high price has reduced demand—there’s less appetite for it because of the cost. The other argument, that floating allows the price to find its true level, also has its problems. As stock traders, we know that the price of a stock is rarely its true value; it’s either overshooting or undershooting and mostly depends on how it’s presented. So, floating may not necessarily lead to true value discovery.

I also don’t buy the argument that floating allows a currency determine its true value. So called true value is what marketers and investors are willing to price it at at that time and must not necessarily be determined because you floated or did not float. Governments float however, in order not to drain their reserves because like in the filling station example, people no longer see the need to queue at filling stations when the price at black market is thesame and you are likely to get it faster.

My analogy may not be 100% similar but I used it to highlight the similar market forces at play.

You are right that demand for dollars reduced because it’s high but when I view our trade data, it hasn’t been that significant. For instance, compare imports of manufactured goods and raw materials in Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 or even Q4 2022 (Q4’s generally see increased imports) to Q2 2025. I don’t see that significant drop in imports but I would do the calculation for you.

In Q4 2022, imports of manufactured goods valued at 2.447 trillion naira (2447.76 bn in screenshot below) was $5.44 Billion (using 450/$) as at Q4 2022

In Q2 2025, import of manufactured goods valued at 7.88 trillion naira (7883 bn in screenshot below) was $4.92 Billion (using 1600/$ for Q2 2025).

Q4 2022 - $5.44 Billion
Q2 2025 - $4.92 Billion

Not so much difference despite the fact that Q4 normally see increased imports of manufactured goods than other quarters due to festivities.

GeneralDae:
In a normal society, banks determine the exchange rate because most of the trading are done there. The BDC’s are mostly at the airports and they also buy from banks to serve tourists and travelers mainly. That’s all.
In these normal situations, banks and central banks activities in the market determines the rate not BDC’s or aboki’s.
BDC’s or aboki can only add their small premiums to the rates but the more they are supplied by banks, the more some BDC’s begin
to reduce their rates too. Market foxes.

Why I am asking all these questions is because I don't believe it was because
government stopped multiple price which they
sell dollars which is called subsidy that made
the value go above 1000.The cbn/government jacked it to this high price for thr own reasons.
If government decides to sell dollars 1000k
tomorrow to all who needs it. Will it mean subsidy is back.Does it mean it is only when the price is extremely high that it means it is not being subsidized. I am trying to understand the workings what true exchange numbers should be to all

GeneralDae:
I also don’t buy the argument that floating allows a currency determine its true value. So called true value is what marketers and investors are willing to price it at at that time and must not necessarily be determined because you floated or did not float. Governments float however, in order not to drain their reserves because like in the filling station example, people no longer see the need to queue at filling stations when the price at black market is thesame and you are likely to get it faster.

My analogy may not be 100% similar but I used it to highlight the similar market forces at play.

You are right that demand for dollars reduced because it’s high but when I view our trade data, it hasn’t been that significant. For instance, compare imports of manufactured goods and raw materials in Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 or even Q4 2022 (Q4’s generally see increased imports) to Q2 2025. I don’t see that significant drop in imports but I would do the calculation for you.

Nobody cares if you buy the argument or not. The rest of your post just shows you don't know what floating the currency means

GeneralDae:
I also don’t buy the argument that floating allows a currency determine its true value. So called true value is what marketers and investors are willing to price it at at that time and must not necessarily be determined because you floated or did not float. Governments float however, in order not to drain their reserves because like in the filling station example, people no longer see the need to queue at filling stations when the price at black market is thesame and you are likely to get it faster.

My analogy may not be 100% similar but I used it to highlight the similar market forces at play.

You are right that demand for dollars reduced because it’s high but when I view our trade data, it hasn’t been that significant. For instance, compare imports of manufactured goods and raw materials in Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 or even Q4 2022 (Q4’s generally see increased imports) to Q2 2025. I don’t see that significant drop in imports but I would do the calculation for you.

While you look at the data presented by the government, let me approach it logically. There’s no way we could have the minimal reduction you claim and still see the price holding at ₦1,500 for this long. The whole idea behind floating is to raise prices to limit demand. If the same quantity is being maintained as before, the price will keep climbing until demand falls to a level the CBN can manage. It’s the same principle with everything else—if the demand for bread is too high, bakers will raise prices to discourage some buyers until demand becomes manageable. The only exception would be if significantly more dollars were coming in, enough to cushion the old level of demand.

ositadima1:
While you look at the data presented by the government, let me approach it logically. There’s no way we could have the minimal reduction you claim and still see the price holding at ₦1,500 for this long. The whole idea behind floating is to raise prices to limit demand. If the same quantity is being maintained as before, the price will keep climbing until demand falls to a level the CBN can manage. It’s the same principle with everything else—if the demand for bread is too high, bakers will raise prices to discourage some buyers until demand becomes manageable. The only exception would be if significantly more dollars were coming in, enough to cushion the old level of demand.

True, you answered it in your last paragraph. More dollars have come in through FPI’s in 2025 that imitates the 2014/2015 levels. Only 2019 comes close in the last 10 years.

GeneralDae:
50 bps cut. Cardoso, na man you be.

@awesomeJ you were spot on.

Thank you 😁😁

We await another one in November.

🤣🤣😁

Agbalowomeri:
This one na loss dem wan report

ositadima1:
Same argument as before: the MPR was below 20% for years before this administration came in and pushed it to 27.5%. Now they’ve reduced it by just 0.5%—not even up to 1%—and some people are jubilating. It’s almost as if General is Cardoso’s brother.

Look at the assymetric corridor as mentioned.

It's effectively a 300 bps cut.

If you don't think that's significant from a single meeting, you're probably trading in a theoretical world.

All of una no go kill me with laugh oo... Na so so laugh i de laugh this evening from page to page after the results.. una wehdone oo

Streetinvestor2:
The nose of that dog come resemble that of japaul sand extractor/sand sucking machine..lol

GeneralDae:
True, you answered it in your last paragraph. More dollars have come in through FPI’s in 2025 that imitates the 2014/2015 levels. Only 2019 comes close in the last 10 years.

If that’s the case, we should see the exchange rate drop significantly—after all, it’s a free float, just like how stocks fall when someone is dumping.

ositadima1:
If that’s the case, we should see the exchange rate drop significantly—after all, it’s a free float, just like how stocks fall when someone is dumping.

I agree but our foreign debt servicing has increased so much. This year alone, we are to spend over $5 Billion on debt servicing. So many things changed since 2022 when the developed world began to hike their rates.
Hopefully, with the growing reserves and drop in inflation, the naira appreciates significantly.

GeneralDae:
There is supply now for CBN and banks which means majority of people who normally get from official sources do not have to depend on aboki.
Just like we don’t have fuel scarcity at the moment, the black market guys are now more passive currently because no queues at filling stations (official channels).

My friend stop doing parralel comparison between fuel and dollars or using it to justify the govt's policy actions . The govt got is wrong with the reckless, hastymanner they handled the 2 policies. Now that companies are unable to import raw materials and machine for industrial production we know what is happening. Even keke Marwa is selling for over N3m, money that could have bought Toyota Corolla or 2 units of 2003 Toyota Camry

awesomeJ:
Look at the assymetric corridor as mentioned.

It's effectively a 300 bps cut.

If you don't think that's significant from a single meeting, you're probably trading in a theoretical world.

Look at my response to that post

mikeapollo:
Thank you my brother. This shows how some of us celebrate mediocrity in this country.
Somebody took dollar exchange rate from N480 to N1,550, and now some people want us to celebrate because it is now N1,490 or so.

My comment is not in specific reference to General ooo, just my general observation of how some of us do.

Dollar was at 750 not 480.

It crashed to 1900, that doesn't change the fact that gaining from 1900 to 1500 is significant, it just simply doesn't change that fact


Since I've been following the currency. This is the first time it's worth significantly more in a given year than the previous year.

The 750 wasn't gonna be the limit even if the currency wasn't floated.

Cos we pegged for years, yet it crashed steadily from 360 to 750, with liquidity drying up.

Banks went from allowing up to $3000 per quarter on naira cards, to $20 a month and then ultimately they couldn't even afford the $20 anymore.

Today, we're getting $4000.


You guys make it seem like the currency was all good at 750 with no issues at all. And nobody should even mention 480 cos it never traded at that price for any real user.

awesomeJ:
Dollar was at 750 not 480.

It crashed to 1900, that doesn't change the fact that gaining from 1900 to 1500 is significant, it just simply doesn't change that fact


Since I've been following the currency. This is the first time it's worth significantly more in a given year than the previous year.

The 750 wasn't gonna be the limit even if the currency wasn't floated.

Cos we pegged for years, yet it crashed steadily from 360 to 750, with liquidity drying up.

Banks went from allowing up to $3000 per quarter on naira cards, to $20 a month and then ultimately they couldn't even afford the $20 anymore.

Today, we're getting $4000.


You guys make it seem like the currency was all good at 750 with no issues at all. And nobody should even mention 480 cos it never traded at that price for any real user.

How was thr issue when u could get any quantity u wanted at that 750/800

Streetinvestor2:
How was thr issue when u could get any quantity u wanted at that 750/800

You're right.

Point is:
- it didn't crash from 480, it did from 750
- while making it crash from 750 to 1900 was very bad, it doesn't mean recovery from 1900 to 1500 isn't significant.

Meanwhile while we pegged while having serious supply issues, this is how the currency slid:

2020 : 360
2021: 450 (25% up)
2022: 600 (33%)
2023: 750 (25%)
Say 2024 was another 33%, it would have hit
1000
2025: 1250(25%)
2026: 1660 (33%)


The currency was constantly sliding year over year even while we pegged and at the historical rate it would have hit 1660 anyways by H1 2026 still with liquidity crisis.

If these guys instead get it sub 1400 with sustained liquidity by then, then their option would obviously prove to be better.

However, I do agree that allowing it get to 1500 was perhaps not the best they could have done.


There was a time in April 2024 when it gained significantly to the 1000 - 1100


Then Cardoso went on an interview to say CBN had no interest whatsoever in defending the currency, and that sent a terrible signal to the market, triggering another crash.

Why would you as a CBN ever say you have no interest defending your currency, then what's your purpose? What's your benefit to the citizens, is it to be wearing suit and speaking English while your citizens lose purchasing power on a daily basis.

If you can't guarantee (defend) the value of a currency, why issue it?

awesomeJ:
Meanwhile while we pegged while having serious supply issues, this is how the currency slid:

2020 : 360
2021: 450 (25% up)
2022: 600 (33%)
2023: 750 (25%)
Say 2024 was another 33%, it would have hit
1000
2025: 1250(25%)
2026: 1660 (33%)


The currency was constantly sliding year over year even while we pegged and at the historical rate it would have hit 1660 anyways by H1 2026 still with liquidity crisis.

If these guys instead get it sub 1400 with sustained liquidity by then, then their option would obviously prove to be better.

So what is this guys doing differently
Any other person could have achieved it or did better. The improvement was as result of less demand for dollars which is centered around alhaji refinery coming alive.

awesomeJ:
However, I do agree that allowing it get to 1500 was perhaps not the best they could have done.


There was a time in April 2024 when it gained significantly to the 1000 - 1100


The Cardoso went on an interview to say CBN had no interest whatsoever in defending the currency, and that sent a terrible signal to the market, triggering another crash.

Why would you ask a CBN ever say you have no interest defending your currency, then what's your purpose? What's your benefit to the citizens, is it to be wearing suit and speaking English while your citizens lose purchasing power on a daily basis.

If you can't guarantee (defend) the value of a currency, why issue it?

Let the poor breathe... Don't suffocate them

JAGABANomics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2y5XRqBloQc?si=QYC8g2gM7hQxjTou

A summary of today's trading session on the NGX.

awesomeJ:
However, I do agree that allowing it get to 1500 was perhaps not the best they could have done.


There was a time in April 2024 when it gained significantly to the 1000 - 1100


The Cardoso went on an interview to say CBN had no interest whatsoever in defending the currency, and that sent a terrible signal to the market, triggering another crash.

Why would you ask a CBN ever say you have no interest defending your currency, then what's your purpose? What's your benefit to the citizens, is it to be wearing suit and speaking English while your citizens lose purchasing power on a daily basis.

If you can't guarantee (defend) the value of a currency, why issue it?

You might be correct but I don’t think that was the major reason for the crash (might have been part of it). The FPI’s just cashed out at the time as they usually do in such situations. It appreciated way too suddenly from 1625 to 1078 in 1 month yet reserves were declining and no one was sure of net reserves. Foreign investors who bought naira at 1625, only had to buy back their dollars with 1078 (almost 600 naira gain). This in itself was not a problem but for the fact that Cardoso didn’t have the net reserves at the time to steady the ship.

Not true.

I had challenge when it didn't reflect on my CSCS account and got that resolved through First Registrars.

While on my CSCS account but wasn't reflecting on my portfolio, I sent Atlass CSCS proof and got it reflecting on my portfolio currently.

olig:
Haha! Now I get it, I didn't know that it can not be migrated. Thanks.

Streetinvestor2:
So what is this guys doing differently
Any other person could have achieved it or did better. The improvement was as result of less demand for dollars which is centered around alhaji refinery coming alive.

Anyone might have done better.
Anyone might have done worse too.

I think they did well clearing the backlogs Emefiele kept amassing, and building reserves to $43bn is also a good thing they did. The improvement in net external reserves is even more impressive compared to what they met.

So give them those.

But to not also mention Alhaji's impact would just be myopic.

megawealth01:
Let the poor breathe... Don't suffocate them

JAGABANomics

07 Corolla at 7m is already suffocating 😁😁

GeneralDae:
You might be correct but I don’t think that was the major reason for the crash (might have been part of it). The FPI’s just cashed out at the time as they usually do in such situations. It appreciated way too suddenly from 1625 to 1078 in 1 month yet reserves were declining and no one was sure of net reserves. Foreign investors who bought naira at 1625, only had to buy back their dollars with 1078 (almost 600 naira gain). This in itself was not a problem but for the fact that Cardoso didn’t have the net reserves at the time to steady the ship.

Yes. His comments did send the wrong signals too. The impact might have just been 20% or less but I would say it still had an impact.


I just never liked why he made it seem like defending the currency was a bad thing.

It's basically in their mandate to guarantee the value of the legal tender or so.

awesomeJ:
Yes. His comments did send the wrong signals too. The impact might have just been 20% or less but I would say it still had an impact.


I just never liked why he made it seem like defending the currency was a bad thing.

It's basically in their mandate to guarantee the value of the legal tender or so.

Yes but you must also remember that at the time (and even till now) when people hear defending, they struggle to differentiate it from what Emiefele was doing.

So he was probably trying to give a signal that he hasn’t abandoned free market principles.

Remember how Bloomberg and Nairametrics made the topic of defending a hot one then especially with dwindling reserves at the time that dwindled by $2 Billion in one month. Maybe he didn’t communicate very clearly and that might have contributed.

GeneralDae:
Yes but you must also remember that at the time (and even till now) when people hear defending, they struggle to differentiate it from what Emiefele was doing.

So he was probably trying to give a signal that he hasn’t abandoned free market principles.

Remember how Bloomberg and Nairametrics made the topic of defending a hot one then especially with dwindling reserves at the time that dwindled by $2 Billion in one month. Maybe he didn’t communicate very clearly and that might have contributed.

Exactly.
My outlook are that they'll get reserves to $45bn soon and move exchange rate below 1400.

At 1400, if Brent stays at current levels, Dangote would cut gantry price to #770

awesomeJ:
Exactly.
My outlook are that they'll get reserves to $45bn soon and move exchange rate below 1400.

At 1400, if Brent stays at current levels, Dangote would cut gantry price to #770

I believe so too. The only threat to that is that from October to December they have maturities and other payments to make but it would be interesting to see how they manage this. I won’t be surprised if the reserves come down for a while in this period due to this but hopefully they are still able to maintain the upward trend of both the reserves and the FX irrespective.

Please I want an expert opinion between investment one and Morgan capital which one is the best