₦airaland Forum

Olaide1295:
Central bank’s reserves is not a fund the FG can spend or dip its hands in. That the reserves are building and the government is borrowing can co-exist.
The government runs on a budget, and the deficit comes component was known since last year. Government will borrow to fund the deficit even if reserves go to 100 billion.

A part of the excess revenue or Reserve(whichever) is usually meant to fund Budget Deficit amongst others not constant borrowing.
These Fund is called Stabilization Fund.

These are managed by Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority(NSIA). The proceeds from this investments are meant to service our Budget deficits from time to time.

What's stopping Govt from going this route?

https://nsia.com.ng/stabilization-fund/

@naturalflow the Q3 performance was not as good as Q2 performance that took it SP to 4+
It made ₦0.56 EPS in H1(Q1+Q2) which made estimated FY EPS to be about ₦1.10k! Consequently, this took SP to ₦4+
Q3 alone it made ₦0.13
(drop per Q). This shows it may not attain the FY EPS of ₦1.10k that was estimated by H1 that took the Share price to ₦4 if it continues with this ₦0.13 EPS in Q4.

naturalflow:
Aj8 this your valuation on mbenefit no clear oooh,the stock is already on 4 naira before this nice result,you are taking it backwards even after the result(3.68)?

essentialone:
Please what Formula do you use to get those figures you usually put up?

I know Qtn is meant for Aj8.
But let me add.

EPS of MB is 0.69 Year-Till-Date(9Months).

We are only left with 1 quarter EPS to add to the EPS of 0.69 to get the Estimated FY EPS.

12=12 calender months
9= calender months.

0.69* 12/9 will give you the estimated full year EPS of ₦0.92k
He multiplies by 4 as his personal standard of average PE ratio of 4 for "most" companies which he calls common sense .
0.92* 4=₦3.68 as target price.

Alternative1,
4=4 quarters(12months; FY)
3= 3 quarters(9months)
he could as well have done 0.69*(4/3)=₦0.92
Then 0.92*4= ₦3.68 as target price.

For a more logical breakdown:
Alternatively 2, you can divide 0.69(Eps for 3 quarters) by 3 to get the EPS for 1 Quarter=
0.69/3= 0.23.

Then multiply 0.23 *4 to get the estimated full yr EPS= ₦0.92k.
Then multiply 0.92*4 to get the common sense target price of ₦3.68 as target price

Agbalowomeri:
But that was expected
If they can maintain a full year EPS of 15-20 and pay dividends N5-6 that should be good.
Ultimate, I expect banks to trend down from here

You know banks have low P/E around 2. So an EPS of 20 means #40 at P/E of 2x plus dividends, the price may rise to #50 per share which is a far cry from the current circa 90 it is now.

emmanuelewumi:
The extraordinary profit of last year was a one off thing.

Yet federal government of Nigeria got more than 50% of the huge profit based on forex gain

CBN did not talk about foreberance loans when the banks made the huge profit in 2024.


Now in 2025 when banks can't repeat last years performance, they now remember the foreberance loans given to the banks

If this was done last year banks would have used part of their bumper profit to pay down the loan.


If you want loan term wealth and value creation on NGX, please look beyond banking stocks

Banking stocks are only good for predictable dividend income

At the bolded is true.
Noticed banks stocks won't appreciate your portfolio at a good rate unlike other sectors.
Even in term of dividends, i still prefer Nahco and wapco to banks because they pay better and have a better chance of appreciating due to a higher P/E ratio.

Streetinvestor2:
Na who wan buy
I just dey reason watin fit happen to that ASi after the release of all q3 results. Look at the good results released that it didn't do much.
Now foreign investors will be sitting on the fence till they understand this government economy management for next yr.
Na so I take hang for total with no hope again with what I am seeing

I think some of these results have been priced in before releasing them.

crownprince2017:
I can see your pure mind but that guy you are engaging is soaked in emotions n ego, he can never understand you. He will always fight to win arguments. He will never learn.

Better leave him.

The same glorified microfinance bank is over 200% gain and still counting in my portfolio.

I have 11 stocks like 8 have done over 100%.

You are doing well my brother.

Agba Awo....Twuale..... Bros show your boys way now

Agbalowomeri:
People will just kuku move to fixed deposit

Or foreign stocks and be earning dollars.
I don't know the issue with this Tax master

emmaodet:
You know banks have low P/E around 2. So an EPS of 20 means #40 at P/E of 2x plus dividends, the price may rise to #50 per share which is a far cry from the current circa 90 it is now.

A time will come when a PE ratio under 10x will be hunted. At such period, one may not even find any bank below 6x. Many other sectors were having PE as low as the banks but stories have changed

yMcy56:
Foreign Investors Increased participation in NGX
** Good thing is that: Local participation still accounts for around 80%

https://nairametrics.com/2025/10/28/foreign-investors-buy-over-n1-trillion-nigerian-stocks-in-nine-months/?

Just curious. How do they get to know the foreign investors from the local ones? is the the type of account we operate? Probably foreign investors registered and trades with dom account? to identify them?

chimex38:
@naturalflow the Q3 performance was not as good as Q2 performance that took it SP to 4+
It made ₦0.56 EPS in H1(Q1+Q2) which made estimated FY EPS to be about ₦1.10k! Consequently, this took SP to ₦4+
Q3 alone it made ₦0.13
(drop per Q). This shows it may not attain the FY EPS of ₦1.10k that was estimated by H1 that took the Share price to ₦4 if it continues with this ₦0.13 EPS in Q4.





I know Qtn is meant for Aj8.
But let me add.

EPS of MB is 0.69 Year-Till-Date(9Months).

We are only left with 1 quarter EPS to add to the EPS of 0.69 to get the Estimated FY EPS.

12=12 calender months
9= calender months.

0.69* 12/9 will give you the estimated full year EPS of ₦0.92k
He multiplies by 4 as his personal standard of average PE ratio of 4 for "most" companies which he calls common sense .
0.92* 4=₦3.68 as target price.

Alternative1,
4=4 quarters(12months; FY)
3= 3 quarters(9months)
he could as well have done 0.69*(4/3)=₦0.92
Then 0.92*4= ₦3.68 as target price.

For a more logical breakdown:
Alternatively 2, you can divide 0.69(Eps for 3 quarters) by 3 to get the EPS for 1 Quarter=
0.69/3= 0.23.

Then multiply 0.23 *4 to get the estimated full yr EPS= ₦0.92k.
Then multiply 0.92*4 to get the common sense target price of ₦3.68 as target price

thanks

I know for a fact that one million noise does not equate a success, success doesn't make noise, ignorance does.
It's not how long you have spent in the market that matters but how many productive years that counts.
Sometimes experience is not what you need but history. Experience are painful exercise that every logical person should learn to avoid.

A serious being should know how to switch between learning, unlearning and re learning, this is where successful people make serious kills.

I learnt here that nobody is for you, everyone is for themselves, the hard truth is, we are all strangers to each other, don't be fooled.

emmaodet:
Just curious. How do they get to know the foreign investors from the local ones? is the the type of account we operate? Probably foreign investors registered and trades with dom account? to identify them?

Most foreign investors will purchase their stocks, fixed income and money market investments using proxies called custodians. These are usually subsidiaries of banks. They usually sit under the umbrella of the global market subsidiaries of these financial institutions. Examples are UBA Custodians, Stanbic Custodians (the biggest in thw industry), Standard Chartered Custodians, etc.

Getting the aggregate numbers from these institutions via the SEC and or the CBN shouldn't be a big deal for anyone who has access to such regulatory bodies.

chimex38:
A part of the excess revenue or Reserve(whichever) is usually meant to fund Budget Deficit amongst others not constant borrowing.
These Fund is called Stabilization Fund.

These are managed by Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority(NSIA). The proceeds from this investments are meant to service our Budget deficits from time to time.

What's stopping Govt from going this route?

https://nsia.com.ng/stabilization-fund/

They have probably looted the stabilization fund, so there is nothing in the fund

Seplat what a result!

They’ve increased their dividend also $7.5c

naturalflow:
Seplat what a result!

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45312_ARADEL_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Aradel result makes sense.

Sunrisepebble:
They’ve increased their dividend also $7.5c

wow,aradey can do better!

It’s a decent result but I don’t understand the rise in general and admin expenses. Staff cost has risen from 8bn to 50bn YoY

Heishere:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45312_ARADEL_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Aradel result makes sense.

Habitual don drop motivational speech.
Show me one Person who has been in the market for long with foundatmental sound stocks that is not successful
And I will show u many who have come to play betnaija with junks for short periods that failed..kpakus in mind.
Some old experience is good learning process.
Not all are bad /sad experience History is always narrative of the past which could be the person experience..lol

I read this morning that Tinubu's govt. has imposed 15% Import Duty on Petrol and Diesel

Aradel did a 10 naira interim,chai detty December.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTmJoiNBMX8

A few stocks I will be watching closely.

For those who prefer audio

https://open.spotify.com/episode/06Mvl1mJyteD52qmC5zJ4M

Sunrisepebble:
It’s a decent result but I don’t understand the rise in general and admin expenses. Staff cost has risen from 8bn to 50bn YoY

They pay their staffs well.

Look at the share profit of associate, from 10B to 67B. That's massive 👏

Heishere:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45312_ARADEL_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Aradel result makes sense.

Them for hold the result for 1hr after market open make we do small thing for the market.
Never in doubt they will release a good result.

Ding!

Cadbury exit door appears closed for now.

Full offer.

megawealth01:

@Mega, where are you?
We've been missing you for some days now.

Mpeace:
Them for hold the result for 1hr after market open make we do small thing for the market.
Never in doubt they will release a good result.

aradel still dey cut,dem never see the result?

ARADEL go still enter N1,000 sha..

Matter of time

naturalflow:
aradel still dey cut,dem never see the result?

Probably selling the news.

But I fell it’s gonna have a strong resistance at 700

Some of these results, if not all, have been priced in already...
Those that performed below expectations also priced in.

Only few that surpassed investors expectations will appreciate well over time......one of them is BUACEMENT

* Those with good results will also be candidates of the next market rally....
* FBNH is expected to perform well.....all things being equal

naturalflow:
aradel still dey cut,dem never see the result?

I wanted full offer make I transfer my remaining access bank there.