₦airaland Forum

https://punchng.com/naicom-completes-review-of-insurers-recapitalisation-plans/

https://www.okaynews.com/naicom-launches-niira-2025-implementation-strategy-with-three-reform-focused-working-groups/

https://von.gov.ng/pencom-naicom-partner-to-ensure-pension-law-compliance/

Another Rally getting set for the Insurance Sector?

Not too long ago, out of curiosity, I made an enquiry about my sub-tribe/local government in my state of origin. AI was just reeling out inaccurate, and sometimes outright wrong answers. What is more disturbing is the way it presents wrong narratives as indisputable truth. Each time it brought out its lies, I would correct it and ask it recheck. It would verify my info, and come back to tender its apologies. At the end of the day, I told the AI not present such wrong narratives about my people to subsequent or future enquirers.

Streetinvestor2:
The AI is not really perfect. I was using it over the weekend to find out about electrical system of my car.It kept giving wrong information and conflicting answers
My kid said it was giving him wrong information on his assignment. And he started use negative words on it and the thing stopped responding to his further inquires..lol
I never confirmed how true it could be oh

Agbalowomeri:
GTCo struggled to break below 90

Now Zenith is struggling to break below 60. Once broken na 50 straight

Everything na step lather. Na the way we climbed up we go climb down

GTCO, should anchor at or about N70.65 if daily closes below N84.65 in anticipation of an overall N7 dividend. Remember, supports and resistance are framed by market sentiments. They are not merely arbitrary lines. However, any inclination towards a lower dividend will drag prices further down, and higher if above N7.00. Zenith should anchor at about N50.55-N50.00 if the daily closes below N57.90 in anticipation of an overall N5.00-5.25 dividend at year end. Just be cash-ready.

aj8:
GTCO, should anchor at or about N70.65 if daily closes below N84.65 in anticipation of an overall N7 dividend. Remember, supports and resistance are framed by market sentiments. They are not merely arbitrary lines. However, any inclination towards a lower dividend will drag prices further down, and higher if above N7.00. Zenith should anchor at about N50.55-N50.00 if the daily closes below N57.90 in anticipation of an overall N5.00-5.25 dividend at year end. Just be cash-ready.

Are you presuming that the Fair Value or Target Price of each stock is x10 of its FY Dividend? Read what you wrote again.

essentialone:
Are you presuming that the Fair Value or Target Price of each stock is x10 of its FY Dividend? Read what you wrote again.

No. More like the bottom.

aj8:
No. More like the bottom.

Ok you mean the Support Level for each stock is x10 it's Dividend?

essentialone:
Are you presuming that the Fair Value or Target Price of each stock is x10 of its FY Dividend? Read what you wrote again.

That's the level that people price banks in NGX. Beyond that it is a bad buy

Agbalowomeri:
That's the level that people price banks in NGX. Beyond that it is a bad buy

Do you guys set this 10x factor (basically a 10% DY) without considering prevailing yields in the fixed income market?

If 364-day bills start doing 9% yield, does your factor get updated to like 15x dividend implying 6.7% DY?

I think running valuations based on dividends needs to be tied to the prevailing fixed income yields for it to hold much water.

Maybe something like expected DY = 60% of 364-day T bills yields, that's more dynamic and will likely be more accurate for judging prices.


I remember that year Emefiele took yields to sub 1%, we literally had day(s) of circuit breaker going off in this market, cos the market gained too much!!!

awesomeJ:
Do you guys set this 10x factor (basically a 10% DY) without considering prevailing yields in the fixed income market?

If 364-day bills start doing 9% yield, does your factor get updated to like 15x dividend implying 6.7% DY?

I think running valuations based on dividends needs to be tied to the prevailing fixed income yields for it to hold much water.

Maybe something like expected DY = 60% of 364-day T bills yields, that's more dynamic and will likely be more accurate for judging prices.


I remember that year Emefiele took yields to sub 1%, we literally had day(s) of circuit breaker going off in this market, cos the market gained too much!!!

That's from historical observations
By the time FY financial results are released, exuberance could move banks stocks to like 7-8% dividend yield at best. If you buy at higher valuations then na OYO you dey. You observe that GT moved and hoovered around 70 after declaring a dividend of N7. Maybe the promise of 15% dividend yield pushed it to 100 but the price adjustment will be confirmed with the next dividend declaration

Agbalowomeri:
That's from historical observations
By the time FY financial results are released, exuberance could move banks stocks to like 7-8% dividend yield at best. If you buy at higher valuations then na OYO you dey. You observe that GT moved and hoovered around 70 after declaring a dividend of N7. Maybe the promise of 15% dividend yield pushed it to 100 but the price adjustment will be confirmed with the next dividend declaration

I think we're speaking to slightly different things sha.

Business Day is reporting $9.1bn in subs vs $2.2 bn offering for this week's Eurobond.

Good new for reserves: $50bn becoming more realistic
Good news for naira: we should move below 1400 in a matter of days
Good news for the market: CBN should be comfortable with another 2-300 bps cut.

awesomeJ:
Business Day is reporting $9.1bn in subs vs $2.2 bn offering for this week's Eurobond.

Good new for reserves: $50bn becoming more realistic
Good news for naira: we should move below 1400 in a matter of days
Good news for the market: CBN should be comfortable with another 2-300 bps cut.

Do you know where i can find the interest rate on this?

Most outlets are reporting over subscription, i am wondering what the interest rate is compared to previous one.

Dum20:
Do you know where i can find the interest rate on this?

Most outlets are reporting over subscription, i am wondering what the interest rate is compared to previous one.

Business Day reports 8.75 for the 10- year and 9.25 for the 20-year.

awesomeJ:
Business Day reports 8.75 for the 10- year and 9.25 for the 20-year.

Exactly, this explains the oversubcription. USA Federal bonds hovers around 4.0-4.5% yield, so a 9ja Eurobond of 8-9% yield is very attractive to both local and foreign investors. Which isn't necessarily a good thing for Nigeria in the long term with our rising debt servicing cost and static dollar revenue. So I don't get why we are the celebrating the oversubscription news.

awesomeJ:
Business Day is reporting $9.1bn in subs vs $2.2 bn offering for this week's Eurobond.

Good new for reserves: $50bn becoming more realistic
Good news for naira: we should move below 1400 in a matter of days
Good news for the market: CBN should be comfortable with another 2-300 bps cut.

Good and bad seem to be balancing out these days.
Is this not countering the effect of the recent ₦1.1trn borrowings on the Naira? :-That's if the $2.3bn borrowing has been done and dusted; I doubt.

GeeKudi:
I responded earlier today to a post which said Trump will do everything to make a certain presidential candiate lose election in 2027 that the same Trump just lost an election in New York City to a candidate he hates with all his soul and spirit. I was banned and my response deleted. The bot is really over doing it.

So he lost ?
He knew he was probably going to lose...
He made a last ditch effort to threaten to hoard funds to NY if he loses.

https://www.channelstv.com/2025/11/05/fg-mulls-refineries-sale-to-boost-competition/

sell, no-sell, repair, buy, privatepartnership, turnaround maintenance, partial repair, overhaul, upgrade, modernization, mechanical completion, compactibility issues, deadline December, postponement, ready soon, soonest, etc. , Which way na?
The amount wey this list don gulp eh.

Potvalor:
Exactly, this explains the oversubcription. USA Federal bonds hovers around 4.0-4.5% yield, so a 9ja Eurobond of 8-9% yield is very attractive to both local and foreign investors. Which isn't necessarily a good thing for Nigeria in the long term with our rising debt servicing cost and static dollar revenue. So I don't get why we are the celebrating the oversubscription news.

I don’t think Naija Eurobond has ever been less than 7% for a long time now. There is usually a 3% country risk they add to what should have been 4-5%.

Potvalor:
Exactly, this explains the oversubcription. USA Federal bonds hovers around 4.0-4.5% yield, so a 9ja Eurobond of 8-9% yield is very attractive to both local and foreign investors. Which isn't necessarily a good thing for Nigeria in the long term with our rising debt servicing cost and static dollar revenue. So I don't get why we are the celebrating the oversubscription news.

You don't compare with u.s federal bonds.
You compare with other issues we done at yields as high as 11%
You compare with yields on Eurobond issues from other African government which are around 7-12%

Then you compare with yields on domestic debt which are around 19%.


No African government can get commercial instruments at same rates as the U.S government.

Why we're celebrating is cos this potentially helps the currency which in turn helps the purchasing power of the masses.

For instance at $2000 Keke napep would be 3.4m when USD was 1700, now if it crashes back to 1350, it will become 2.7m which is a relief for the man on the street hustling to buy one.


Same with polished parboiled rice.
Same with cars,
Same with refined petroleum products.

And quite importantly when foreign substitutes come down in price, even locally produced goods get cheaper.

Everyone gets to buy a little bit more.

If you noticed, part of the profits MTNN reported in Q3 that helped them exit negative shareholders funds and even pay a dividend was cos of naira 's appreciation.

Specifically about 61 billion in Q3 vs 105bn they're paying in dividends.

chimex38:
Good and bad seem to be balancing out these days.
Is this not countering the effect of the recent ₦1.1trn borrowings on the Naira? :-That's if the $2.3bn borrowing has been done and dusted; I doubt.

I don't understand what you mean by "countering" could you explain?

The instruments should be complementary??

Reuters reports a 12.5 bps reduction in both yields vs Business Day.
8.625 and 9.125

Oando Plc says it has suspended petrol importation into the country as the commencement of domestic fuel supply by the Dangote Refinery continues to disrupt Nigeria’s downstream market, leading to a 20 per cent fall in its trading revenue.

In its H1 and nine-month 2025 financial reports, the energy company said its trading segment faced headwinds that exerted pressure on both the entity’s revenue and the group’s topline, following the decline in Premium Motor Spirit imports into the country due to rising local refining capacity.

“Our trading segment faced headwinds which exerted pressure on the entity’s revenue and the Group’s topline as a result of declining PMS imports into the country due to rising local refining capacity from the Dangote refinery, a positive development that enhances Nigeria’s energy security and self-sufficiency,” the company said in its H1 report.

It explained that in response to the changing environment, it diversified crude offtake sources, optimised trade flows, and expanded into new commodities like liquefied natural gas to cushion the impact of lost PMS volumes.

In response, we diversified our crude offtake sources, optimised trade flows, and expanded into LNG and metals. These initiatives are already gaining traction and will support stronger performance in H1,” Oando stated.

According to the 9M report, revenue declined by 20 per cent year-on-year to N2.5tn in the first nine months of 2025, compared with N3.2tn in the same period of 2024. The company attributed the fall primarily to a reduction in gasoline imports following the ramp-up of the Dangote refinery, though this was partly offset by stronger upstream contributions.

“Revenue declined by 20 per cent year-on-year to N2.5tn (9M 2024: N3.2tn), primarily due to a reduction in gasoline imports following the ramp-up of the Dangote refinery, which has positively transformed Nigeria’s refined-product supply landscape, partly offset by stronger upstream contributions,” the firm noted.

Gross profit also decreased by 42 per cent to N113bn compared to N194bn in the same period last year. The decline was in line with the topline contraction and changing segment mix, Oando reported.

However, the company recorded a sharp rise in net earnings during the period under review.

“Profit after tax increased by 164 per cent to N210bn (9M 2024: N76bn), driven by stronger production volumes and legacy recoveries,” it said.

Across its trading business, Oando acknowledged that refined product volumes remained under pressure largely due to the success of the Dangote refinery in meeting Nigeria’s fuel needs.

Across our trading business, refined products volumes remained under pressure, largely due to the well-deserved and expected success of the Dangote refinery in meeting Nigeria’s import needs. Consequently, our focus had shifted to expanding global crude exports and leveraging structured pre-export transactions, an area in which we have continued to record robust success,” it stated.

During the review period, Oando said it maintained progress in crude trading while deliberately pausing PMS activities in response to the structural shift in the domestic market.

“In 9M 2025, the Trading Division continued to execute its strategic priorities despite persistent market volatility. A total of 21 crude oil cargoes (19.8 million barrels) were traded during the period, up from 15 cargoes (16.7 MMbbl) in 9M 2024, reflecting sustained momentum under Project Gazelle and stronger crude trading performance,” it said.

Conversely, it was added that “the vision made a conscious strategic decision to pause PMS trading activities during the period, recognising the structural shift in Nigeria’s downstream market following the full commencement of domestic supply from the Dangote refinery.”

It added, “With the refinery now fulfilling its intended role in supporting national product availability, Oando has redirected its focus towards higher-margin crude and gas trading opportunities, while continuing to evaluate re-entry into the refined-product segment as market dynamics stabilise.

Looking ahead, Oando said it would focus on strengthening crude trade flows and expanding into gas and metals.

“The focus going forward is on deepening operational resilience and optimising existing crude trade flows, supported by the development of offtake-linked financing structures to unlock incremental volumes and strengthen margins. In parallel, the division is advancing plans to diversify into gas and metals trading, aligning with the group’s broader strategy to build a balanced, future-ready energy portfolio and deliver sustained long-term value,” the report stated.

The Dangote refinery, which began production in 2024, has since become a dominant player in Nigeria’s fuel market. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the plant said it now supplies much of the nation’s petrol and diesel needs, significantly cutting the country’s dependence on imported products.

Last week, the Federal Government introduced a 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel to discourage cheap fuel imports and protect local refineries.

The policy is aimed at consolidating domestic refining gains and stabilising the market amid Dangote’s rapid scale-up.

Analysts said the new tariff, coupled with the refinery’s growing output, would eventually price importers out of the market.

awesomeJ:
Reuters reports a 12.5 bps reduction in both yields vs Business Day.
8.625 and 9.125

https://www.thecable.ng/nigerias-2-2bn-eurobond-records-largest-ever-oversubscription/

In a statement on Wednesday, the debt office said the transaction attracted investors’ peak orderbook of over $13 billion, “marking the country’s largest-ever orderbook”.

awesomeJ:
You don't compare with u.s federal bonds.
You compare with other issues we done at yields as high as 11%
You compare with yields on Eurobond issues from other African government which are around 7-12%

Then you compare with yields on domestic debt which are around 19%.


No African government can get commercial instruments at same rates as the U.S government.

Why we're celebrating is cos this potentially helps the currency which in turn helps the purchasing power of the masses.

For instance at $2000 Keke napep would be 3.4m when USD was 1700, now if it crashes back to 1350, it will become 2.7m which is a relief for the man on the street hustling to buy one.


Same with polished parboiled rice.
Same with cars,
Same with refined petroleum products.

And quite importantly when foreign substitutes come down in price, even locally produced goods get cheaper.

Everyone gets to buy a little bit more.

If you noticed, part of the profits MTNN reported in Q3 that helped them exit negative shareholders funds and even pay a dividend was cos of naira 's appreciation.

Specifically about 61 billion in Q3 vs 105bn they're paying in dividends.

I was thinking about the long term. Is it a sustainable approach? Didn't the current government put much blame on the earlier one for the same loans, and now they're repeating the same mistake? Imagine our Nation using 40-60% of our total yearly revenue to service debt. And it will keep ballooning up. Tbh, the current dollar/naira rate might not even sustain this level for long, and we might see a similar 2023 sharp devaluation within the next 2-5 years. Just my opinion though.

Potvalor:
I was thinking about the long term. Is it a sustainable approach? Didn't the current government put much blame on the earlier one for the same loans, and now they're repeating the same mistake? Imagine our Nation using 40-60% of our total yearly revenue to service debt. And it will keep ballooning up. Tbh, the current dollar/naira rate might not even sustain this level for long, and we might see a similar 2023 sharp devaluation within the next 2-5 years. Just my opinion though.

I agree with your perspective 💯💯

The real fix for the economy would be to have more productivity, export more and shore up our reserves with earnings rather than debts

That's why net reserves figures are a better measure of progress than gross reserves.

We're not having the best or ideal situation yet, but let's also not just write off any little progress.


Like the debt servicing you mentioned, I think it was once above 100% of revenue and mostly above 90% post COVID, now it's below 50%, and they can even take it to around 30% by simply lowering yields to around 12%.


There have been other borrowings in the past which haven't had a much impact on the gross reserves. Emefiele's second term was mostly a mistake for this country imo.

For productivity, there are measures of progress as seen from the consistent balance of trade surplus for many quarters now. It used to be terrible deficits.

For the currency, this is the first year the it has gained more than 10% yoy since 2017. Whether it's sustainable or not, run your forecast models and decide. But I will choose Alhaji's position which is rather bullish for now.

They're improving on some areas, they can do more in others. Agriculture, solid minerals, interest rates etc.

But for insecurity, they're not trying at all in my opinion. Citizens keep dying, terrorists keep living large?? They keep flying private jets upandan?? I mean how do you sleep in comfort knowing that your citizens are being killed ridiculously, like it doesn't bother you, it doesn't take sleep off your eyes??

That's the level of concern they should show, let's the president become so concerned about these killings that he starts getting sleepless nights and keeps all his military generals on their toes until the killings are drastically reduced, but no, they seem unbothered, almost trying to make it a new normal and it's super annoying.

awesomeJ:
I agree with your perspective 💯💯

The real fix for the economy would be to have more productivity, export more and shore up our reserves with earnings rather than debts

That's why net reserves figures are a better measure of progress than gross reserves.

.

Thanks for sharing these nice points. Let's hope for the best✌🏽

awesomeJ:
I agree with your perspective 💯💯

The real fix for the economy would be to have more productivity, export more and shore up our reserves with earnings rather than debts

That's why net reserves figures are a better measure of progress than gross reserves.

We're not having the best or ideal situation yet, but let's also not just write off any little progress.


Like the debt servicing you mentioned, I think it was once above 100% of revenue and mostly above 90% post COVID, now it's below 50%, and they can even take it to around 30% by simply lowering yields to around 12%.


There have been other borrowings in the past which haven't had a much impact on the gross reserves. Emefiele's second term was mostly a mistake for this country imo.

For productivity, there are measures of progress as seen from the consistent balance of trade surplus for many quarters now. It used to be terrible deficits.

For the currency, this is the first year the it has gained more than 10% yoy since 2017. Whether it's sustainable or not, run your forecast models and decide. But I will choose Alhaji's position which is rather bullish for now.

They're improving on some areas, they can do more in others. Agriculture, solid minerals, interest rates etc.

But for insecurity, they're not trying at all in my opinion. Citizens keep dying, terrorists keep living large?? They keep flying private jets upandan?? I mean how do you sleep in comfort knowing that your citizens are being killed ridiculously, like it doesn't bother you, it doesn't take sleep off your eyes??

That's the level of concern they should show, let's the president become so concerned about these killings that he starts getting sleepless nights and keeps all his military generals on their toes until the killings are drastically reduced, but no, they seem unbothered, almost trying to make it a new normal and it's super annoying.

I wanted to complain is this how they have been growing the reserve. Is this not indirectly subsidy for naira.Then I read this post which says it is not actually the best approach but could be better going forward. Let watch and hope because this government na failure raised to power 2.The next governor or government officials seen having negotiations and tea party with terrorist should be arrested and charged with genocide. We have no business negotiating with killers

awesomeJ:
I don't understand what you mean by "countering" could you explain?

The instruments should be complementary??

Yes complementry. Get dollar inflows and borrow naira in-house. without forex issues.

Though I didn't state it,
By countering, I mean they got dollar bonds inflow to boost budget deficit which is a good thing. But out of it to pay up $1.1bn maturing dollar bonds(Nov 21) amongst others.
(Akpabio, Oct 2025 ).

The 400% shows investors confidence is certainly a big moral booster. They probably see future fulfilment and economic stability. Though rates might add to the enticing effect.

But what if there was a low subscription this close to the payment maturity, especially given this trump online chaos that tilts investors confidence. na so we for just default?

Few days ago, the entire National Assembly was on Lockdown as contractors were protesting for non payment for work executed.

We will now be forced to either choose to fund budget deficit or pay matured bonds.
Na chaotic scene we for day both home and abroad.

I fear It's a short term gain that may not be sustained.
Every country uses debt but our borrowing cycle margin looks thin.

Then there's another pending borrowing(though in Naira).

having so many moving parts that needs to be attended to at the same time is risky.
Lets not be like Ghana that defaulted few yrs ago.

awesomeJ:
I agree with your perspective 💯💯

The real fix for the economy would be to have more productivity, export more and shore up our reserves with earnings rather than debts

That's why net reserves figures are a better measure of progress than gross reserves.

We're not having the best or ideal situation yet, but let's also not just write off any little progress.


Like the debt servicing you mentioned, I think it was once above 100% of revenue and mostly above 90% post COVID, now it's below 50%, and they can even take it to around 30% by simply lowering yields to around 12%.
.................
............

It's OK. If debt margins are decreasing amongst other parameters that can be felt by people.

Potvalor:
Exactly, this explains the oversubcription. USA Federal bonds hovers around 4.0-4.5% yield, so a 9ja Eurobond of 8-9% yield is very attractive to both local and foreign investors. Which isn't necessarily a good thing for Nigeria in the long term with our rising debt servicing cost and static dollar revenue. So I don't get why we are the celebrating the oversubscription news.

Excellent!
Any Eurobond issuance by a relatively stable democracy in Africa with 8%-10% yield would be oversubscribed at the moment because yields are low in US Europe, Asia.etc

GeeKudi:
There is also the possibility of a lull or inactivity in the market especially for blue chip stocks because of the CGT. For instance, what would be the motivation of anyone to bring out money to move the price of PRESCO, Nestle NAHCO etc? Though there may be plenty offers, who would be the buyers and what could possibly be their motivations?

So people still feel that asset management companies and pension fund administrators who control major activities in the market will sell down their positions because of CGT?

Make una leave all these CGT stories because individuals who still sell their stocks will buy them back at a later date. If CGT Co tinues for another decade, ehat they are trying to avoid today will be like pennies tomorrow if the economy continues to grow.

Standard Bank Holdings Limited (SBHL) will still continue to by Stanbic IBTC Holdings PLC shares irrespective of the position of CGT.

Just like Personal Income Tax or Sales Tax, the amount you pay today is several multiples of the amount you paid fifteen years ago.

🙏🏽