₦airaland Forum

ositadima1:
They’re not completely out yet. Look at their current nine-month cash flow, it’s negative, meaning they lost money overall, yet they still spent ₦24 billion on capital expenditure. If the remaining three months don’t turn things around, they’ll still end the year with losses. I think the stock will only start to take off when they begin generating real profits and adding value for shareholders.

In Q2, I valued them to move above ₦79 because they had around ₦50 billion in cash flow(all dried up), but I don’t think they’ll reach that level with the current weak results.

SohSoh:
The article :: Aramco's $21bn dividend puts NNPC under spotlight.

Same Business, Vastly Different Results :: This article emphasizes the core argument that a shared or the same business model should yield nearly comparable business success. The article uses Aramco's success to show that NNPC's struggles are not due to the market, but to its own deep-seated operational and administrative inefficiencies.

Ellah Lakes and Presco

I see no reason why Ellah Lakes, should raise the same amount as presco, when they both share the same Business model but results are greatly different.

pluto09:
He is doing a good job though I also have my reservation with the way he uses the number line.
DS should do well next year considering the fact that the price of raw sugar is down in the international market, the support around $15 has just been broken. History has taught us that DS makes a lot of money when price of raw sugar is on a downward spiral.
The only negative I see with the company now is the finance costs,that needs to be brought down ASAP.

Pete002:
omooo...everywhere Red .

ololufemi:
If you dig deep, you'll see that technically, some of the banks own the shares of FMDQ which gives them an undue advantage.

ositadima1:
Lol, not enough detail. Sugar is down by how many percent? Assuming the issue with DS is only inventory, we can actually estimate the impact of the drop in sugar prices. Let’s say it fell by 10%, we could discount the portion of cost of sales related to sugar inventory by 10% and see if it would have made a significant difference. Simply saying that history has taught us this or that is just wishful thinking.

ositadima1:
They’re not completely out yet. Look at their current nine-month cash flow, it’s negative, meaning they lost money overall, yet they still spent ₦24 billion on capital expenditure. If the remaining three months don’t turn things around, they’ll still end the year with losses. I think the stock will only start to take off when they begin generating real profits and adding value for shareholders.

In Q2, I valued them to move above ₦79 because they had around ₦50 billion in cash flow(all dried up), but I don’t think they’ll reach that level with the current weak results.

pluto09:
He is doing a good job though I also have my reservation with the way he uses the number line.
DS should do well next year considering the fact that the price of raw sugar is down in the international market, the support around $15 has just been broken. History has taught us that DS makes a lot of money when price of raw sugar is on a downward spiral.
The only negative I see with the company now is the finance costs,that needs to be brought down ASAP.

essentialone:
Best solution is to completely divide Nigeria along Religious lines. One side should be named Islamic Republic of Nigeria, and the other side should be named Biafra (Christian).

Every Nigerian is free to choose which side to belong to with new Passports and Identities issued. No human should have to share same nationality with animals.

HesInMe:
So Agro-Allied Resources and Processing Nigeria Limited (ARPN) -- the company Ellah wants to buy -- is going public at a huge premium to its intrinsic value? That public offer prospectus will be fire.

If it'll be clear enough to read, that is.

aj8:
Can we agree on some areas?
1. Price is normally forward-looking
2. Progress ( in percentages) made in the last quarter 3 was better than in their 9 months Q3, which were actually flat in 9 months 2025 vs 9 months 2024 but 134% in qtr 3 (last quarter of 2025 vs same 2024)
3. If momentum in qtr 3 is maintained DS should see further improvement in earnings
4. The breakdown of quarter 3 is not detailed, all that was put across is that eps improved by 134% from negative 3.32 to positive 1.13. No sufficient details were given. The company I guess, just wanted to convey that “Hey folks, it’s not really as bad as you think”.
5. I think we also agree that the turnaround could show in Q1 2026 or at most Q2 2026
6. All our investment objective is to get a front row seat …entry at or close to the bottom is fine..

I am prepared to jump in now below 55.60 and keep loading with the hope that qtr 3 momentum would be sustained and the estimates would be hit within 6 months or at most 9 months. Q1 2026 to my mind is the quarter to watch … if good it would be an all-on-board train departing. However, all are based on the economy not walking into a doldrum of economic, political, or geopolitical woes. That's the major risk.

pluto09:
The logic is simple.
The major cost input for DS is raw sugar.
When price of raw sugar rises, it takes time before the company is able to pass the cost to consumer by raising price of refined sugar. And when price of raw sugar falls,this most times does not reflect in price of refined sugar which translates to more profit for DS.
Raw sugar has lost close to half of its price yoy and it's still falling and I know that has not reflected in price for consumers.

Divineability:
Ellah ...... L/K/P offer opens
https://businessday.ng/companies/article/ellah-lakes-receives-sec-approval-for-n235-billion-public-offer/

HesInMe:
So Agro-Allied Resources and Processing Nigeria Limited (ARPN) -- the company Ellah wants to buy -- is going public at a huge premium to its intrinsic value? That public offer prospectus will be fire.

If it'll be clear enough to read, that is.

emmanuelewumi:
Current shareholders now have the opportunity to increase their holdings in this company

KarlTom:
The Punch article aptly called it reverse acquisition...

emmanuelewumi:
Current shareholders now have the opportunity to increase their holdings in this company

ppogba:
You seem to be on the wrong part of Nairaland .

The investment thread is strictly not for childish views . PLEASE TAKE NOTE.

WE will not allow your ilk derail this thread

KarlTom:
The Punch article aptly called it reverse acquisition...

dapix:
https://guardian.ng/business-services/presco-plans-n237-billion-rights-issue/

SonofElElyonRet:
I sense a tinge of sarcasm.. well done oooo

pluto09:
Na for OandO people I first learn the term,reverse acquisition.
Maybe dey are learning from wale and his gangs