Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (9824) - Nairaland
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Coolcash1: 4:19am On Nov 23, 2025 |
Agbalowomeri:This one too no bad… ![]() |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by nosa2(m): 4:53am On Nov 23, 2025 |
Agbalowomeri:No worry, DSS go soon come carry you. With these your price expectations you must know of some secret plans to declare civil war in the country |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:43am On Nov 23, 2025 |
nosa2:Lol, to cheer you people up, what’s happening now looks very similar to April 2024 (2024-04-30). Back then, only five stocks gained more than 10%, while forty-one fell more than -10%. That period also followed several strong months, especially January 2024, when sixty-one stocks closed above +10% and only four were below –10%. It felt like a correction after a bullish run. Mind you, it wasn’t CGT then, probably some other news. There will always be news, good or bad. Currently, we again have only five stocks above +10% and thirty-five below –10%. This month also comes after very strong months, especially July, which had eighty stocks up more than +10% and only four below –10%. This reinforces the correction narrative I mentioned earlier. This too will pass, and like you, I still see upside coming in the next few months. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 7:58am On Nov 23, 2025 |
ositadima1:From correction to Janet ![]() |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Redoil: 8:22am On Nov 23, 2025 |
Access Bank has been thrust into a storm of panic and speculation as a Federal High Court sitting in Lagos ordered the attachment of ₦29 billion from the bank’s funds domiciled with the Central Bank of Nigeria. The development stemming from a judgment of the Court of Appeal in CA/LAG/CV/1215/2023: Igala Construction Co. Ltd & 2 Ors v. Access Bank Plc has ignited fear among shareholders and sent shockwaves rippling across the financial sector. The order, issued in satisfaction of a massive judgment debt totaling ₦28,824,851,515.57 with 32% compounded interest, has left investors rattled, triggering a wave of anxiety over the bank’s exposure and the potential implications for its financial stability. Industry insiders say the mood around Access Bank headquarters is tense, with stakeholders scrambling for clarity as the details of the long-running legal battle resurface. The dispute dates back to a 2005 case at the Lagos High Court involving Access Bank, Igala Construction Company Ltd, Mr. C.A. Khouzam, and Reverend (Mrs.) Mary Akinlaja. While Access Bank initially secured judgment in its favour in June 2023, the defendants’ counter-claim was partially upheld. Unhappy with the outcome, the defendants lodged an appeal—but Access Bank did not challenge the portion of the judgment relating to the counterclaims. In a dramatic twist, the Court of Appeal overturned the high court’s decision and granted the entire counterclaim, including: A declaration that Igala Construction was entitled to ₦27,595,152.40, the amount Access Bank had admitted owing as far back as 2004, with compounded interest at 24% per annum. A 100% penalty on the admitted sum under the CBN Monetary Policy Circular of 2/1/04, also attracting compounded interest. Further compounded interest at 32% per annum from April 1, 2003 until full liquidation. ₦300 million in damages over alleged malicious and defamatory publications. ₦100 million in legal costs. With the compounded interest and penalties ballooning over two decades, the judgment sum soared into the tens of billions. A chartered accountant, Motunrayo Popoola Aishat, was engaged to compute the final figure, confirming the staggering amount due as at June 2025. Invoking Section 287(2) of the Constitution and Section 83 of the Sheriff and Civil Process Act, the judgment creditors subsequently sought and obtained an order attaching Access Bank’s funds with the CBN. The court agreed, stressing that the creditors were entitled to “reap the fruits of their judgment.” Meanwhile, panic has gripped Access Bank’s top management as the institution scrambles to halt the enforcement of the attachment order. In a desperate bid to contain the fallout and reassure jittery shareholders, the bank has reportedly launched a counter–suit, hoping to overturn the judgment and salvage its public image. But beneath the official denials and carefully worded statements, insiders say the tension is unmistakable; Access Bank is racing against time to stop the Central Bank of Nigeria from executing the order that freezes nearly ₦29 billion of its funds. The ruling has sent Access Bank into one of its tensest moments in years, with shareholders reportedly alarmed, analysts increasingly cautious, and market watchers bracing for potential tremors in the banking sector. As the bank navigates the fallout, uncertainty looms even as legal experts warn that interest will continue accruing at 32% per annum until the monumental debt is completely settled. With the stakes rising and uncertainty deepening, the matter has now been adjourned until next month, leaving the bank, its investors, and the wider financial market anxiously waiting for what comes next. For now, all eyes remain on Access Bank’s next move, as panic lingers and investors await reassurance. https://newsextra.com.ng/access-bank-in-turmoil-as-court-freezes-%e2%82%a629bn-at-cbn-exposing-deep-legal-trouble |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:09am On Nov 23, 2025 |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 10:24am On Nov 23, 2025 |
Very soon thr won't be ngx whether u call it bull or bear.A disgraced nation has no business having even an exchange. I saw whr the female team was being disgraced. The ngx can go beyond crash if it likes.The over 200 primary school children lives matters than the useless ngx to many Nigerians and me inclusive. So ur useless call on price is now even a joke.What is the ngx waiting for again.let it vanish |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 10:44am On Nov 23, 2025 |
Agbalowomeri:I know say Ur eye dey this Aradel. I also know say if the price fall to N150 you no go still buy, instead you go move goal post to N100. No worry, I go pray for you today wey be Sunday |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 11:08am On Nov 23, 2025 |
Mpeace: ![]() |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:48am On Nov 23, 2025 |
Market Fragility Model - Simple Explanation Think of market fragility like checking if a bridge is about to collapse. You don't wait for it to fall, you look for warning signs like cracks, rust, and stress points. The Big Idea This model gives the stock market a "health score" from 0-100: - 0-20: Healthy and strong - 50+: Getting shaky - 80+: Danger zone - small problems could cause big crashes The 5 Warning Signs We Check 1. Liquidity Collapse (40% weight) Simple idea: Is money drying up in the market? How it works: Compare how much trading happened in the last month vs. the previous 6 months. Example: - Last 6 months: #100 billion traded per month - Last month: Only #50 billion traded - Red flag! Money is leaving the market Why it matters: When liquidity dries up, prices can crash suddenly because there aren't enough buyers. --- 2. Concentration Risk (20% weight) Simple idea: Are too few stocks dominating all the trading? How it works: Check if the top 5 stocks account for most of the market's trading volume. Example: - Market has 100 stocks - But MTN, Dangote, and 3 others account for 80% of all trading - Red flag! Market is too concentrated Why it matters: If something bad happens to those few big stocks, the entire market suffers. --- 3. Price-Volume Divergence (20% weight) Simple idea: Prices going up but trading volume going down? Suspicious! How it works: Compare stock price changes vs. trading volume changes. Example: - Stock price up 20% in 2 months - But trading volume down 30% - Red flag! Price increase isn't backed by real demand Why it matters: Price rises without volume support are "fake rallies" that easily reverse. --- 4. Breadth Collapse (12% weight) Simple idea: Are most stocks going down while only a few go up? How it works: Count how many stocks are rising vs. falling, weighted by their trading activity. Example: - 80 out of 100 stocks are falling - Only 20 are rising - Red flag! Market rally is narrow and weak Why it matters: Healthy markets have most stocks participating. If only a few carry the market, it's fragile. --- 5. Turnover Volatility Shock (8% weight) Simple idea: Is trading becoming unpredictable and erratic? How it works: Compare recent trading volume swings to historical patterns. Example: - Normally, daily turnover varies by ±#5 billion - Recently, it swings by ±#30 billion - Red flag! Panic buying/selling patterns emerging Why it matters: Wild swings in trading activity signal nervous, unstable markets. --- Bonus: Volatility Regime Simple idea: Are price swings getting bigger? How it works: Compare recent price volatility to long-term averages. Example: - Stocks normally move ±2% per day - Recently moving ±5% per day - Red flag! Market is getting jittery Note: This is tracked for information but doesn't affect the main score. --- Real-World Analogy Imagine you run a fish market: 1. Liquidity: Fewer customers showing up to buy fish → **market dying** 2. Concentration: Only 3 out of 50 stalls getting all the customers → **unhealthy** 3. Divergence: Fish prices rising but nobody's buying → **artificial prices** 4. Breadth: Only lobster selling well, everything else rotting → **narrow market** 5. Turnover Volatility: Some days empty, some days mob rushes → **unstable** If you see all 5 problems at once, your market is about to collapse! --- How the Score is Calculated Each component gets a 0-1 value: - 0 = healthy - 1 = maximum fragility Then we multiply by weights and add them up: ``` Score = (Liquidity × 40%) + (Concentration × 20%) + (Divergence × 20%) + (Breadth × 12%) + (Turnover Vol × 8%) ``` Then multiply by 100 to get 0-100 scale. --- Why These Weights? For Nigerian/emerging markets: - Liquidity (40%): Biggest risk - thin markets can freeze up quickly - Concentration (20%): Few stocks dominate these markets - Divergence (20%): Price manipulation more common in emerging markets - Breadth (12%): Important but secondary - Turnover Vol (8%): Least critical but still informative --- What To Do With the Score 0-35: Relax, market is stable 35-50: Pay attention, some cracks appearing 50-65: Be cautious, reduce risk exposure 65-80: Warning! Prepare for volatility 80-100: Danger! High chance of sharp drops --- The Key Insight Markets don't crash randomly. They show stress signals first. This model catches those signals before the crash happens, like a smoke detector before the fire.
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by jonnysessy(m): 12:36pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
Streetinvestor2:Since you already know all these. I expected by now you are no longer in NGX. I am also very surprised that you are still living in Nigeria with us. With your pronouncement, i thought you had fled the country since. Well, some of us know you. I can't forget your Oando cast issue, though i was relatively new on the thread. The way you went about the whole drama was very funny to me. You now went back and seriously acquired the same Oando stocks and you even came out in the open to tell people how the stock was the best thing that happened to you ( whether you did it because of your conscience). My own postulation is your method is creating unnecessary panic when there is none. Some will tomorrow sell out some of their prized stocks in panic and you will quickly jump in. I know your antecedents. The Nigerian female team you are quoting is an old video, it is nothing new. Lesson learnt: Talk is very cheap, we have seen worst situations and the NGX is still on its feet. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by jonnysessy(m): 12:42pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
Redoil:But if you ask me, who i go ask. You are the same person that posted the story and you turn around and ask how it will affect shareholders. Well, a news had been posted. It is now left for shareholders to digest the news. We all know that stocks reacts to news ( whether good or bad). |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by HesInMe: 1:25pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
There's an easier, first-order gut check: the current (or, even better, forward) market price-to-earnings ratio compared to historical trends. That's the total market cap of the All-Share Index divided by the total earnings of the listed companies. Does anyone have that metric calculated by an analyst? According to Simply Wall Street (take with a grain of salt): 3-year average market PE: 9.2x Current PE: 8.2x ositadima1: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yok: 1:57pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
Extract of Target Technical Analysis Message For This Weekend[color=#000099][/color] NIGERIAN EXCHANGE LIMITED (NGX) WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW AND SECTOR ANALYSIS Week Ended: 21 November 2025 Plus Ideas for 24 November 2025 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Nigerian Exchange declined – by 2.24 % for the week ending 21 Nov 2025 with the All-Share Index (ASI) closing at 143,722.62 points. Market capitalization stood at ₦91.415 trillion, down by ₦2.09 trillion (≈2.23 %) from the prior week. KEY HIGHLIGHTSMARKET PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT MARKET PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT Metric Current Wk %Change ASI (points) 143,722.62 –2.24% Mkt Cap (T). 91.42. –2.23% Volume (B) 2.67 - 63.51% (from 7.325B last week) Value (B) 106.26 –32.06% (from 156.425B) Deals 107,998 –19.60% (from 134,383) Advancers vs Decliners 20 vs 60 Market breadth: Negative – breadth ratio 0.33 (20 advancers / 60 decliners) indicating weak market internals. **SECTORAL PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS** INTERPRETATION COMMENTS Rank Index Value (week) %Change 1 Ins. 1,083.42 –7.05% 2 Prem 14,009.16 –4.79% 3 Ind Gds 5,234.26 –4.50% 4 Banking 1,372.60 –3.85% 5 Growth 14,018.00 –2.70% 6 Cons Gds 3,445.10 –0.44% 7 Oil/G NGX 2,705.44 –1.61% 8 Lotus II 12,735.92 –2.56% **Best Performing Sector** Best Performing Sector: Consumer Goods (smallest loss at -0.44%) driven by staple resilience and modest dividend support. The sector shows potential for stabilization despite overall pressure. Worst Performing Sector: Insurance, down 7.05%, facing weak earnings sentiment, regulatory pressure, and high claim uncertainties. The sector is bearish; fresh long exposures should be selective to stocks with strong momentum. ***MARKET BREADTH ANALYSIS*** Metric Current Wk PriorWk. %Change Gainers 20 48 -58.33% Decliners 60 45 +33.33% Unchanged 67 53 +26.42% Brdth Ratio 0.33. 1.07 –69.16% Interpretation The sharp drop in the breadth ratio to 0.33 from 1.07 indicates an extremely weak internal market dynamic. Although volumes remain significant, the disproportional number of declining issues suggests the market is undergoing broad-based profit-taking and possibly structural rotation. ***TOP MOVERS OF THE WEEK*** **Top 5 Gainers** Ticker Close(N) %Change NCR 41.10 +60.55% UPPRESS. 6.00 +17.65% TANTALIZ 2.51 +17.29% CAVERTON 5.50 +17.02% UACN 70.00. +16.67% Top 5 Losers Ticker Close(₦) % Change **Most Active Stocks by Value** Top 5 Losers Ticker Close(N) % Change IE Ins 2.12 –22.06% MCNICHOLS 2.57 –14.90% VER KAP 1.60 –14.89% AIICO INS 3.15 –13.70% LIVESTOCK 6.10 –12.86% Most Active Stocks by Value Ticker Volume(M) Value(NM) ACCESS. 1,057.00 24,652.00 TANTALIZERS, ZENITH etc. **Other Information** · Chams Holding Company Plc listed an additional 1,955,910,000 ordinary shares on the Nigerian Exchange. These shares were issued through a Private Placement at a price of N1.87 per share, increasing the company's total issued shares from 4,696,060,000 to 6,651,970,000. · Aso Savings and Loans Plc had a full suspension of trading in its shares. This suspension is to allow for the reconciliation of records and the determination of eligible shareholders in preparation for the listing of reconstructed shares. FUNDAMENTALS CORNER – MEDIUM TERM STOCK IDEAS (3+ months) Bleep XXXX : High gross margin (>30%), strong balance sheet PRESCO PLC: Solid ROCE (>15%) and growth momentum NAHCO PLC: Revenue growth above 25%, consistent EPS gains XXXXXX XXXX: Clean fundamentals, strong balance sheet, medium-term value play MACROECONOMIC AND MARKET CONTEXT The market faces headwinds from high interest rates driven by CBN's tight monetary policy, evident in high Treasury Bill rates attracting funds away from equities. Currency volatility pressures import-dependent sectors, while Oil/Gas benefits from Naira revenue gains despite low crude prices. Institutional adjustments ahead of T+2 settlement and year-end contribute to volatility. The environment remains risk-off with domestic selling prevailing despite record foreign portfolio investments. Any monetary easing signal will be a positive catalyst. OUTLOOK & INVESTMENT STRATEGY Short-Term (1–2 weeks): Market expected to remain pressured, testing lower levels unless positive triggers occur such as FX reform clarity or strong earnings. Medium-Term (1–3 months): Expect gradual recovery supported by Nigeria’s fundamentals with rotation into consumer, industrial, and export stocks.Recommended Tactical Positioning: Overweight Consumer Goods and export-oriented Industrials. Underweight Insurance and Banking sectors. Risk Management: Use stop loss, limit individual stock exposure to 5% and sector exposure to 25%. Monitor CBN MPC meetings, OPEC decisions, and Naira trends as key catalysts. INVESTOR SENTIMENT SUMMARY Indices mostly in sell mode except Insurance, which shows buying interest. Broader market remains risk-averse with cautious positioning especially in Banking, Oil/Gas, and Growth sectors.l STOCKS TO WATCH FOR THE WEEK OF 24 NOVEMBER 2025 Top Picks: XXXX (85%), XXXX (82%), XXXX, XXXX Speculative: XXXX (85%), XXXX (80%), XXXX (80%), XXXX Full Bid Candidates (watch post-market open): XXXX (90%), XXXX (85%) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – NGX ALL SHARE INDEX Current Level: 143,722.62 Supports: Primary 140,000, Secondary 138,000, Major 130,000 Resistances: Immediate 146,000, Secondary 150,000, Major 160,000 Moving Averages: 50-Day approx 145,500, 200-Day approx 160,000 Status: Death Cross (fast EMA below slow EMA), RSI , trend decreasing with descending channel pattern. Overall, the market bias remains bearish with continued weakness in key sectors and broad profit-taking. DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Information is obtained from sources believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed.
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 2:17pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
jonnysessy:I wasted my time reading rubbish. Like i said in the past.The only thing I have in common with your type is only ngx.And for that it can vanish as a disgraced nation. Then for a failed government which has created a disgraced nation. It will definitely create a disgraced ngx which I expect to vanish. The disgraced nation has created hunger and poverty which ur survival my be tied to ngx now..lol.So your cry will not stop the disgraced ngx heading to happen. It is just matter of time.i don't need FA or TA to know it. Finally since we only have ngx in common. it gives me joy to use block button for u guys... The oando story na old karuwa story. Pls look for something new. For the record .No disgraced nation has ever produced a prosperous stock exchange. If na lie mention one make we compare |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by jonnysessy(m): 2:23pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
Streetinvestor2:Who want to have anything with your type if not for NGX. All i know is that your deception will not work this time. Go and write it down somewhere, nothing will happen to NGX. The worse case scenario is that you will selloff and leave the market. The market will not leave whether you like it or not. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 2:27pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
jonnysessy:The worst is that ngx will vanish as a component of disgraced nation..lol. That is how other things are vanishing gradually. Another week of red.You will varnish from here join.Your cry is going to be loud and very long. School fees and bill na your mate in a disgraced nation..lwkd |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by crownprince2017: 3:20pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
When u become blindfolded with tribalism you become irrational in your views and opinions. Even though it's a natural phenomenon that because it's your opinion doesn't make it a reality. Happy Sunday. But what is happening, I have not gotten my presco dividend even though this not my first time of receiving the dividends. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 3:23pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
HesInMe:I got this online
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 3:29pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
Thank God I never used tribalism to scam people on any stock like someone did on kpakus. i use it in my people struggle which I support with the blood that flows in me. Then again what else does this government represent worst in the history of nigeria than tribalism. The facts are thr in everything. The last thing I will do is to hide in different moniker like a coward to say my mind. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:35pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
HesInMe:And this will be a check on market fragility? Are you kidding me? P/E can tell you whether a stock is overpriced or not, t’s a valuation tool, not a risk gauge. Using the All-Share Index market cap the way you described makes it even worse. The most capitalized stocks naturally earn the most, so you’re basically measuring the average valuation of only the heavyweights. The smaller names get drowned out. Take TIP for example, it performed very well, but its low P/E disappears in your calculation simply because its market cap is tiny compared to the big players. I think your proposal is flawed for what I intended to measure. A market can be cheap and extremely fragile. ![]() |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Valthegreat(m): 3:56pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
Oga Agba see your fellow billionaire friend. He is a billionaire only in NSEMPA thread but scared of 'ordinary' #500m in real life. ![]()
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by HesInMe: 5:11pm On Nov 23, 2025*. Modified: 5:29pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
No need for the drama. I said it was a gut check, not a PhD thesis. It's more useful than you'd think. Let's think through this. Define the "risk" that you're trying to "gauge"? ositadima1: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:40pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
HesInMe:Market fragility refers to the probability that a shock triggers a large move because the market’s internal structure is weak. At that point, even minor news can cause a major crash. Structural fragility has nothing to do with whether the market is expensive or cheap. It’s about whether: liquidity has dried up, you need active buyers and sellers to sustain a market; turnover has collapsed, the value being exchanged has dropped sharply; breadth has deteriorated, only a few stocks are moving while most remain stagnant; a handful of stocks are carrying the entire market, concentration risk; volatility is clustering, the market is stuck, with limited real movement; small orders are moving prices more than they should, a sign of thin liquidity and easy manipulation. That’s the risk I’m measuring. P/E ratios don’t capture any of this, they’re valuation tools, not stability indicators. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:50pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
HesInMe:Lol, you all keep clamouring for simplicity, but the market is not simple, it’s actually very complex. There are many forces at play. You can simplify your approach, but then you’ll ride through both the highs and the deep lows. Yes, markets eventually recover, hopefully. Valuation can look excellent and you can still experience 40–50% drawdowns; you should know this from 2019/2020. With a bit more sophistication, you can do better by exiting earlier and returning closer to the bottom, while the ‘simple’ guy rides the full roller-coaster. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by crownprince2017: 6:27pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
Till date, we are yet to see anyone on this forum comes out to say he was misled/ scam by my post. If there is, pls call the person out. But In your case we have seen people comes out to say you misled them for your personal gains which you will be accounted for when you die. You are threading the same part to scam people for your personal gains again before that guy called you out. Or you want me to call out names of people that you misled? ![]() Fear God. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by crownprince2017: 6:31pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
Those fake spare parts you dey buy for 50k and resell for 200k in Lagos still they sustain you, na why u dey pray for other people investment to go bad, no wahala, vdm hand go soon reach you. Na turn by turn.. ![]() |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by handsomebolanle: 6:33pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
Deploy more fund to pick access at 19+ tomorrow… Eyes on HMCAL at 3.9+ below is a good buy VFD should be on the watch list to see if the RI is successful. Expect a bull if it does. We are still waiting for ELLAH at 6-7 naira. We keep buying the dip. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by crownprince2017: 6:42pm On Nov 23, 2025 |
handsomebolanle:Make Presco register released my dividend may be I can deploy it join instead of buying ram. ![]() |
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