₦airaland Forum

Locotrader:
Jesus being full of holy Spirit replied to the devil " thou shall not tempt the Lord your God"

Mikeapollo pls thou shall not tempt Loco for this Santa bull.

Lol
You wan escape? I catch you there!

Atleast I no be one thing here.
To make it look good dey say na scam but for street na thief

Portfolio down by 6% this month.... December better be good.

We move!

innovestor:
Many reason the same way as you do. For God's sake we are talking of 2 oil wells and not 2 oil blocks.

2 oil wells can more that conveninently be located and functional in less that 10% of the over 13 thousand hecters of land that Presco owns. They both can coexist together. If this was true, then its more about the message being passed (that any business or enterprise could be closed down at any mood swing of any governor) than profitting from 2 wells. This ould have further driven away foreign and local investments.

Think about it in this light.

Part forfeiture not whole. Only the part affected. At any rate it's not true so further argument is pointless.. we agree to disagree 👍

Alhaji says he wants DIL to be a $100bn revenue company in the next 5 years.

That would make DIL the 10th largest economy in Africa if it were a country.

I expect the refinery to list at a $40bn valuation.

20bn shares at about N3000 per share.

It's now becoming the largest refinery in the world without any qualifier (no need for single train, multi train, nothing)


A single entity having revenues above 25% of its country's GDP would be fun to see.

awesomeJ:
Alhaji says he wants DIL to be a $100bn revenue company in the next 5 years.

That would make DIL the 10th largest economy in Africa if it were a country.

I expect the refinery to list at a $40bn valuation.

20bn shares at about N3000 per share.

It's now becoming the largest refinery in the world without any qualifier (no need for single train, multi train, nothing)


A single entity having revenues above 25% of its country's GDP would be fun to see.

God dey. This is reason there will always be bear in the market, pulling prices down to a level that the ''Son of Man'' can be able to buy8

mikeapollo:
God dey. This is reason there will always be bear in the market, pulling priced down to a level that the ''Son of Man'' can be able to buy

Baba, how bear take enter here again na? 😁😁😂

I reread your post @mikeapollo and saw that you were referring to the N3000 per share price.

I was already laughing say, wetin concern GDP and bear again now o.

Small downside of Seun hiding long quotes (highlights might be hidden)

Anyways, the common man who thinks N3000 is too high unfortunately doesn't have the N300m it'll take to just move the stock price.

And even if he does and decides to manipulate a N60trn stock with his N300m, it will only mean his village people have finally gotten him 😂😂

machine606:
Have X-alart been suspended? Haven't got any since last month!

Didn’t get any alerts on the trades I made this week. Aah so the issue is up to a month.

Omo, how did Aradel pay dividend into the same account old whose number I don't know. Coronation registrars never accepted my dividend mandate from NIbbs, so where did they get this account number from? Omo I'm so pissed.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/69lDlcnGTGwxcGKotyIsTK

A summary of today's trading session on the NGX.

Video below.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzq-Q7WWIxs

deathwing:
Omo, how did Aradel pay dividend into the same account old whose number I don't know. Coronation registrars never accepted my dividend mandate from NIbbs, so where did they get this account number from? Omo I'm so pissed.

IT SEEMS they have done an integration of the various existing systems that hold investors' data and MAYBE we no longer need to fill e-dividend forms.

I bought some stocks for the first time recently and I started getting emails from the registrars. I also observe that the e-dmmms platform is longer active. It has been like that for some time. People have been mentioning they have been getting dividends they did not fill forms for. I have too. But I observed such go into my savings account while the ones I filled e-dividends forms for go into my current account as I requested when filling the forms.

I assume the system has a criteria on where to send dividends to if it sees multiple accounts, even if it goes into an account you would rather not use. But an unknown account, as in your case, complicates things further.

Automating dividend payment like this is a development that could be expected. But the problem I see is that one has to figure things out. There seem to be no communication on the matter at all or not properly done. I try to keep up with investment news but never seen where they indicated these "development". We just start noticing and figure it out.

They’re probably using BVN.

Audacius:
IT SEEMS they have done an integration of the various existing systems that hold investors' data and MAYBE we no longer need to fill e-dividend forms.

I bought some stocks for the first time recently and I started getting emails from the registrars. I also observe that the e-dmmms platform is longer active. It has been like that for some time. People have been mentioning they have been getting dividends they did not fill forms for. I have too. But I observed such go into my savings account while the ones I filled e-dividends forms for go into my current account as I requested when filling the forms.

I assume the system has a criteria on where to send dividends to if it sees multiple accounts, even if it goes into an account you would rather not use. But an unknown account, as in your case, complicates things further.

Automating dividend payment like this is a development that could be expected. But the problem I see is that one has to figure things out. There seem to be no communication on the matter at all or not properly done. I try to keep up with investment news but never seen where they indicated these "development". We just start noticing and figure it out.

If true, it's a bit silly. The account they have been sending the dividends to has been dormant for six years. It's not unknown, just forgotten and I don't even remember the account number(it's XX*******XX in the email alerts)
Why not even check the account first before sending it?
Why not send to an active account (i have four others)
Why the account that has never been used?
And why to a business account when my sotck account is not a corporate one? That is how lax we are as a country. Why is my corporate account collecting dividends for an individual brokerage account?
The Product Manager suppose collect cane. I emailed First Registrars to ask about this and they ignored me since last week. I emailed them again today and even copied their MD and SEC, still no response. Very useless set of people.


Yes, OI also get emails from Aradel directly now, for some reason

Audacius:
IT SEEMS they have done an integration of the various existing systems that hold investors' data and MAYBE we no longer need to fill e-dividend forms.

I bought some stocks for the first time recently and I started getting emails from the registrars. I also observe that the e-dmmms platform is longer active. It has been like that for some time. People have been mentioning they have been getting dividends they did not fill forms for. I have too. But I observed such go into my savings account while the ones I filled e-dividends forms for go into my current account as I requested when filling the forms.

I assume the system has a criteria on where to send dividends to if it sees multiple accounts, even if it goes into an account you would rather not use. But an unknown account, as in your case, complicates things further.

Automating dividend payment like this is a development that could be expected. But the problem I see is that one has to figure things out. There seem to be no communication on the matter at all or not properly done. I try to keep up with investment news but never seen where they indicated these "development". We just start noticing and figure it out.

una don tempt me come type shut ur trap
d way u dey typa na insult dey do to d lord
be careful
ur folio is not bigger dan d holy spirit dat dey joke here abt
take time
d sand wey dey push on top new been go enter ur own food

Locotrader:
Jesus being full of holy Spirit replied to the devil " thou shall not tempt the Lord your God"

Mikeapollo pls thou shall not tempt Loco for this Santa bull.

All these young once don't know how Tinubu operates. Just be leaking govt secrets any how. So last last na 25% of my long and hard earned money them want collect. Ok naa

An excellent analogy of the Tax System by Johnston Grocke


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BomQxCG5VG4

🍺

They send themselves private mail and decide the stock for MH for December. Then peteru comes to announce it as santa bull.I have evidence of such massage..lol
Na only bullshit go happen soon ...disgraced ngx analysis.
Christmas bills na thr mate.
Japaul come use two hands hold thr neck.I remembered saying jp will no see #3 this yr to them that was even before ngx became disgraced..lol

KarlTom:
An excellent analogy of the Tax System by Johnston Grocke


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BomQxCG5VG4

🍺

Makes sense..
The rich pay more and still benefit more..

KarlTom:
An excellent analogy of the Tax System by Johnston Grocke


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BomQxCG5VG4

🍺

It's a case of % difference and face-value differences. Where to draw the line.


copied from the comment section of the YouTube video
By @TC-eo5eb
3 years ago

I once worked in a factory that was a union shop. The factory workers ranged from unskilled workers to highly skilled workers i.e tool and die makers. We had union negotiations with the company for new contracts every two years. Every contract time there was disagreement between the unskilled workers and the skilled workers. The unskilled workers wanted an across the board pay raise and the skilled workers wanted a percentage pay raise. The unskilled workers thought a percentage raise favored the skilled workers because 2% of tool and die maker wage was more than 2% of unskilled workers wage. The skilled workers knew that multiple years of across the board raises would close the gap between unskilled wages and skilled wages. The unskilled workers believed it was greed for skilled workers to receive a larger pay increase by using a percentage raise while the skilled workers believed it was greed on the unskilled workers to receive a larger pay increase by giving everyone an across the board pay increase. Even though a percentage raise benefited everyone, the unskilled workers just couldn't stand to see the skilled workers receive a larger pay raise by using percentage. So two year contracts usually offered one year of across the board raises followed by the second year receiving percentage raise. Crazy.

KarlTom:
An excellent analogy of the Tax System by Johnston Grocke


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BomQxCG5VG4

🍺

Na wetin UK dey face currently
No money to pay benefits

deathwing:
If true, it's a bit silly. The account they have been sending the dividends to has been dormant for six years. It's not unknown, just forgotten and I don't even remember the account number(it's XX*******XX in the email alerts)
Why not even check the account first before sending it?
Why not send to an active account (i have four others)
Why the account that has never been used?
And why to a business account when my sotck account is not a corporate one? That is how lax we are as a country. Why is my corporate account collecting dividends for an individual brokerage account?
The Product Manager suppose collect cane. I emailed First Registrars to ask about this and they ignored me since last week. I emailed them again today and even copied their MD and SEC, still no response. Very useless set of people.


Yes, OI also get emails from Aradel directly now, for some reason

How then did they get the account number in the first if you didn't supply them the info previously

BuchyD:
Portfolio down by 6% this month.... December better be good.

We move!

SEPLAT showed some of us shege. Down 17% in November. It was my heaviest holding.

Agbalowomeri:
Na wetin UK dey face currently
No money to pay benefits

Exactly.. Paying Benefits.
Nothing goes for free.

along the line of the comment sections, someone mentioned how the Govt(probably US) spread the students loan defaults among tax payers as a way to recover the loans after forgiving the students.
If the rich are not in the country paying taxes, the students loan recovery/benefits will become impossible.

awesomeJ:
SEPLAT showed some of us shege. Down 17% in November. It was my heaviest holding.

I sold at the peak and re enter at 247.50... .Sincerely.I don't do long term with foreign stocks...my eyes do see shege

Open for debate

Willie2015:
I sold at the peak and re enter at 247.50... .Sincerely.I don't do long term with foreign stocks...my eyes do see shege

I never thought it would go below 280, I mean after 7.5 cents in dividends??

But nothing wrong with being wrong, you just gotta be right more times than you're wrong.

Let them even just start converting these Mobil asset licenses and have more reasonable tax rates.

Does anyone have any info on the timeline for the conversions?

Market Fragility Score for the Week Ended.

ositadima1:
Market Fragility Model - Simple Explanation

Think of market fragility like checking if a bridge is about to collapse. You don't wait for it to fall, you look for warning signs like cracks, rust, and stress points.

The Big Idea

This model gives the stock market a "health score" from 0-100:
- 0-20: Healthy and strong
- 50+: Getting shaky
- 80+: Danger zone - small problems could cause big crashes

The 5 Warning Signs We Check

1. Liquidity Collapse (40% weight)
Simple idea: Is money drying up in the market?

How it works: Compare how much trading happened in the last month vs. the previous 6 months.

Example:
- Last 6 months: #100 billion traded per month
- Last month: Only #50 billion traded
- Red flag! Money is leaving the market

Why it matters: When liquidity dries up, prices can crash suddenly because there aren't enough buyers.

---

2. Concentration Risk (20% weight)
Simple idea: Are too few stocks dominating all the trading?

How it works: Check if the top 5 stocks account for most of the market's trading volume.

Example:
- Market has 100 stocks
- But MTN, Dangote, and 3 others account for 80% of all trading
- Red flag! Market is too concentrated

Why it matters: If something bad happens to those few big stocks, the entire market suffers.

---

3. Price-Volume Divergence (20% weight)
Simple idea: Prices going up but trading volume going down? Suspicious!

How it works: Compare stock price changes vs. trading volume changes.

Example:
- Stock price up 20% in 2 months
- But trading volume down 30%
- Red flag! Price increase isn't backed by real demand

Why it matters: Price rises without volume support are "fake rallies" that easily reverse.

---

4. Breadth Collapse (12% weight)
Simple idea: Are most stocks going down while only a few go up?

How it works: Count how many stocks are rising vs. falling, weighted by their trading activity.

Example:
- 80 out of 100 stocks are falling
- Only 20 are rising
- Red flag! Market rally is narrow and weak

Why it matters: Healthy markets have most stocks participating. If only a few carry the market, it's fragile.

---

5. Turnover Volatility Shock (8% weight)
Simple idea: Is trading becoming unpredictable and erratic?

How it works: Compare recent trading volume swings to historical patterns.

Example:
- Normally, daily turnover varies by ±#5 billion
- Recently, it swings by ±#30 billion
- Red flag! Panic buying/selling patterns emerging

Why it matters: Wild swings in trading activity signal nervous, unstable markets.

---

Bonus: Volatility Regime
Simple idea: Are price swings getting bigger?

How it works: Compare recent price volatility to long-term averages.

Example:
- Stocks normally move ±2% per day
- Recently moving ±5% per day
- Red flag! Market is getting jittery

Note: This is tracked for information but doesn't affect the main score.

---

Real-World Analogy

Imagine you run a fish market:

1. Liquidity: Fewer customers showing up to buy fish → **market dying**

2. Concentration: Only 3 out of 50 stalls getting all the customers → **unhealthy**

3. Divergence: Fish prices rising but nobody's buying → **artificial prices**

4. Breadth: Only lobster selling well, everything else rotting → **narrow market**

5. Turnover Volatility: Some days empty, some days mob rushes → **unstable**

If you see all 5 problems at once, your market is about to collapse!
---

How the Score is Calculated

Each component gets a 0-1 value:
- 0 = healthy
- 1 = maximum fragility

Then we multiply by weights and add them up:

```
Score = (Liquidity × 40%) + (Concentration × 20%) + (Divergence × 20%) +
(Breadth × 12%) + (Turnover Vol × 8%)
```

Then multiply by 100 to get 0-100 scale.

---

Why These Weights?

For Nigerian/emerging markets:
- Liquidity (40%): Biggest risk - thin markets can freeze up quickly
- Concentration (20%): Few stocks dominate these markets
- Divergence (20%): Price manipulation more common in emerging markets
- Breadth (12%): Important but secondary
- Turnover Vol (8%): Least critical but still informative

---

What To Do With the Score

0-35: Relax, market is stable
35-50: Pay attention, some cracks appearing
50-65: Be cautious, reduce risk exposure
65-80: Warning! Prepare for volatility
80-100: Danger! High chance of sharp drops

---

The Key Insight

Markets don't crash randomly. They show stress signals first. This model catches those signals before the crash happens, like a smoke detector before the fire.

One of my trend-following models is signalling a buy on Cadbury. I’m not sure whether to trust it, will it give me January survival money after a detty December? Lol. Some people are even saying the NGX is disgraced.

Hey guys what is the potential of Ellah Lakes, seeing that they are on PubliC offer? Is it a wise investment
?