₦airaland Forum

It's mostly dumb luck.

All these feel-good, find-the-needle-in-the-haystack investment stories don't acknowledge how poorly the strategy works on the average -- those stocks where the strategy fails, and fails badly. Most investors are better off just buying the index.

ositadima1:
I don’t think it’s 100% luck, but he’s clearly exaggerating in his post. The points he made are solid, just not strong enough, which is why he hasn’t been adding to his position all this while. It’s like having a strong feeling that Manchester City will beat Fulham based on certain indicators, but you’re still not fully sure, so you bet responsibly, lol.

HesInMe:
It's mostly dumb luck.

All these feel-good, find-the-needle-in-the-haystack investment stories don't acknowledge how poorly the strategy works on the average -- those stocks where the strategy fails, and fails badly. Most investors are better off just buying the index.

It's not luck

Very insightful.

nosa2:
It's not luck

But the price is obviously being manipulated.

nosa2:
It's not luck

HesInMe:
Very insightful.

Haha! See, it's not easy nor is there a guarantee that just because you review results this weekend that you will find one this weekend. You have to be patient in your search and you need to be confident in your analysis.

GeeKudi:
But the price is obviously being manipulated.

Not necessarily. Someone could be selling strategically but that's not manipulation

Mankind2024:
@
Streetinvestor2,
Thank you for the comment.
Let me respond once, calmly and clearly, so we don’t waste each other’s time again.
I am not a gambler.
I am a deliberate, long-term investor and an unapologetic disciple of the late Charlie Munger. Gambling is hoping to be right. Investing is knowing the odds are overwhelmingly in your favour and then waiting. That is what I do.
My “gamble” scorecard (just so we are clear):
Transcorp Hotels – 100,000 units bought 2020 @ N3.60 → still holding untouched
Honeywell Flour – bought @ N3.15 → still holding at all-time high
Ikeja Hotel – bought @ N2.64 → still holding at yearly high
NCR – 50,000 units @ N3.43 in 2021 → N3.635 million today
Sell button deactivated since 2020.
Zero top-ups, zero panic sales, zero palpitations.
Manipulation?
Every single stock people have ever called “manipulated” on this forum eventually went 10–30× while you watched from the sidelines.
The market doesn’t need your permission to re-rate a business. When an illiquid stock with 108 million units outstanding and real contracts finally wakes up, the same people who ignored it for years suddenly scream “manipulation”. That’s not analysis. That’s regret wearing a fake beard.
Liquidity is my friend, not my enemy.
I buy when almost nobody trades it. I sell (if ever, maybe the 3rd generation will do that) when everybody wants it. That gap is exactly where multi-baggers are born. Being patient simply removes the pain of illiquidity and converts it into massive gain.
“You had money to top up from 2021–2025”
No. I allocate. I do not average down on ego. I sized my original position exactly where I wanted it. The same N171k that you mock is now worth more than many people’s entire portfolio. Size is irrelevant; conviction and holding power are everything.
My portfolios (NGX + NYSE) speak louder than my mouth ever will.
When they were boring and red for years, you were nowhere to be found.
Now that some are green, you appear with theories. That timing tells its own story.
I do not trade. I do not jump in and out. I do not market stocks daily like some locotraders here.
I own businesses, collect my voting rights, sleep like a baby, and let time + Nigeria’s growth do the rest.
Mr Market owes none of us an explanation.
He will keep doing what he does: ignore the crowd for years, then reward the quiet ones who refused to blink.
Enjoy your portfolio.
I’ll keep enjoying my “gambling”.
God bless you.
And may your own investments one day give you the peace that lets you type with less bitterness against Nigeria.

Let me get something from this post
Did u say u don't average up on stocks rather u allocate the new fund to new stock.
Then my happiness is more of what happening on the street/society. It has never had anything to do with my portfolio. If the ngx/my portfolio needs to vanish for better society. I will take it as collateral damage.

HesInMe:
It's mostly dumb luck.

All these feel-good, find-the-needle-in-the-haystack investment stories don't acknowledge how poorly the strategy works on the average -- those stocks where the strategy fails, and fails badly. Most investors are better off just buying the index.

Yeah, some people tell stories to feel good, I do that sometimes. But you can still make outsized returns by using strategies and models; that’s a fact. The market has hidden patterns you can exploit to make money. So yes, on average, people do make money. I’m living proof, and there are many others here who don’t talk about their wins at all, so you never hear about them.

From Meristem

Streetinvestor2:
Let me get something from this post
Did u say u don't average up on stocks rather u allocate the new fund to new stock.
Then my happiness is more of what happening on the street/society. It has never had anything to do with my portfolio. If the ngx/my portfolio needs to vanish for better society. I will take it as collateral damage.

I think instead of waiting for collateral damage since you have continued to think the disgraced country will lead to a disgraced NGX, it is better you sell off your holdings now and come back later.

Dont even think of 2027 because this Tinubu i am seeing will return.

I will advice you target 2031. Even so, it is most likely a northerner coming at that time and the wailing may continue.

So the best bet is 2039 when your preferred candidate might lead the disgraced country and maybe the NGX will become undisgraced.

They also don't talk about their losses (and opportunity costs). That's the problem.

ositadima1:
Yeah, some people tell stories to feel good, I do that sometimes. But you can still make outsized returns by using strategies and models; that’s a fact. The market has hidden patterns you can exploit to make money. So yes, on average, people do make money. I’m living proof, and there are many others here who don’t talk about their wins at all, so you never hear about them.

Someone tell me about MANSARD abeg.

omo
my stem ppl dey everywhere on dis threads
see dem wid dia stem speck gb-ola everywhere non perfomance full
d real g's wey dey pack branch speck bola no dey enta whey d stem speck dey full
see dem pushing dia yeye tock broking on top ur head
most useless tock broker
go carry ur stem rest...una neva grow ur stem come turn to long branch wey hang very wel

emmanuelewumi:
From Meristem

.

HesInMe:
Someone tell me about MANSARD abeg.

by broda dey r Ba starts
dem suppose change d M to B
N to S
and S to T

HesInMe:
They also don't talk about their losses (and opportunity costs). That's the problem.

Those factors affect everyone. Even if you track the index, there are periods when the index is stagnant or falling because the heavyweights aren’t performing, while smaller stocks may be doing much better, but their low weight means the index doesn’t reflect it.

We’ve discussed risk management here before: diversification and weighting your investments based on your own internal assessment of risk. You can see that Mankind was managing risk by not adding to the position, effectively keeping its weight in his portfolio low, he was unconsciously mitigating risk.

From what I’ve read here, his entire portfolio was already over ₦300 million as far back as 2023, yet he kept only ₦170k in that stock (NCR) and never added to it. That’s pure gut-level risk management, regardless of the story he’s now telling for cheap likes, lol.

vacanci:
I think instead of waiting for collateral damage since you have continued to think the disgraced country will lead to a disgraced NGX, it is better you sell off your holdings now and come back later.

Dont even think of 2027 because this Tinubu i am seeing will return.

I will advice you target 2031. Even so, it is most likely a northerner coming at that time and the wailing may continue.

So the best bet is 2039 when your preferred candidate might lead the disgraced country and maybe the NGX will become undisgraced.

If your post and quoting my post worth. 50kobo it would have made better sense.He is gone by 2027.U can hug transformer for it

Lol, if you follow this thread daily like I’ve done for the past five years, you can easily estimate the minimum size of some people’s portfolios. Some of you like to spill the beans regularly, which I think is unnecessary. I understand why you do it, you want your opinion to carry weight, right?

But saying, ‘My portfolio is X millions, so my view shouldn’t be contested,’ is a logical fallacy. It’s simply an appeal to authority, lol.

Streetinvestor2:
If your post and quoting my post worth. 50kobo it would have made better sense.He is gone by 2027.U can hug transformer for it

i don bookmark this response. On the day of swearing in, in 2027 i will halla you.

there will still be 14 years of wailing. Add that to ur age and it is game over

You're making my point. It's not a serious investment strategy. It's like buying a lottery ticket: If it works, awesome; if not, whatever.

ositadima1:
From what I’ve read here, his entire portfolio was already over ₦300 million as far back as 2023, yet he kept only ₦170k in that stock (NCR) ....

vacanci:
i don bookmark this response. On the day of swearing in, in 2027 i will halla you.

there will still be 14 years of wailing. Add that to ur age and it is game over

I hope the disgraced economy does not finish u before 2027 for u to see a new nigeria possible..lol
For my age I can comfortably retire at this age now.

emmanuelewumi:
From Meristem

Thank God for Atlass and Morgan, this sort of downtime would have cost me more than double the national minmum wage.

talking about minimu m wage though it's interesting to find that even though igerian Naira and South Korean Won are worth exactly thesame, minimum wage in Sout Korean is over 2million per month compared to 70k in Nigeria.

HesInMe:
You're making my point. It's not a serious investment strategy. It's like buying a lottery ticket: If it works, awesome; if not, whatever.

My friend, all forms of investment are like playing the lottery, especially stocks. It’s all probabilistic. You can’t tell me with 100% certainty where a stock will be tomorrow. Too many things can go right or wrong. That’s the whole point of diversification and weighting.

I’m not claiming to be smart; I didn’t invent these ideas. I learned them from different sources. You diversify because when some stocks go down, others go up, reducing volatility and overall risk. You assign weights because, based on the information you have, some stocks carry more risk and others less. Anyone who understands risk does this, even Buffett.

All stocks carry risk, even when you have conviction. When Access was in the 30s, some said 20 wasn't possible; many of you argued that it couldn’t happen, yet it did. DangSugar was a darling in 2022/2023, and people expected ₦250 by now, then Tinubu struck, and today it’s just coping.

Learn this from me: stocks are almost like a Ponzi, you only win when someone is willing to buy from you at a higher price.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT6zb5WZAwk

Midday trading update on the NGX so far today

HesInMe:
They also don't talk about their losses (and opportunity costs). That's the problem.

You’re right. I was tempted to ask the guy celebrating his win in NCR if he bought Niger Insurance. I bought 2.5m units with about 520k naira and still seeing the loss in my portfolio.

I ran into an old friend i saw last since 1987, last Friday at a funeral party and realizing he was the company secretary/legal adviser for 15yrs for Niger Insurance, I asked him if there is any hope for the coy. He said, non, that the coy is already under Receivership. That he severally warned the management and that those responsible for the misfortunes of the company leading to withdrawal of its license are walking freely!
So sometimes it goes beyond our permutations but luck

Streetinvestor2:
I hope the disgraced economy does not finish u before 2027 for u to see a new nigeria possible..lol
For my age I can comfortably retire at this age now.

Economy is disgraced
Nigeria is disgraced
NGX is disgraced

yet you come to NSEMPA every minute. Are you not contradicting yourself?

The unofficial feedback is that Presco got the N250 billion

ositadima1:
My friend, all forms of investment are like playing the lottery, especially stocks. It’s all probabilistic. You can’t tell me with 100% certainty where a stock will be tomorrow. Too many things can go right or wrong. That’s the whole point of diversification and weighting.

I’m not claiming to be smart; I didn’t invent these ideas. I learned them from different sources. You diversify because when some stocks go down, others go up, reducing volatility and overall risk. You assign weights because, based on the information you have, some stocks carry more risk and others less. Anyone who understands risk does this, even Buffett.

All stocks carry risk, even when you have conviction. When Access was in the 30s, some said 20 wasn't possible; many of you argued that it couldn’t happen, yet it did. DangSugar was a darling in 2022/2023, and people expected ₦250 by now, then Tinubu struck, and today it’s just coping.

Learn this from me: stocks are almost like a Ponzi, you only win when someone is willing to buy from you at a higher price.

When did ACCESSCORP get to ₦30 this year or last year?

Or abi you done become APC member?

@Ositadima and the Thomases
I understand say e fit pain you, but calling my NCR run “pure luck” no dey accurate at all.
I get multiple stocks wey I put less than ₦2 million years ago wey don grow quietly reach ₦35 million–₦50 million today through compounding. Some of una even sabi one or two of those stocks. I no dey shout them every day because the goal no be to dey drag chest.
Is it NYSE, where the market has turned some $4,000 investment to $18k in my portfolio?
Humility is one of the virtues of successful investors, time is our best friend.
Volatility and inactivity is the price we pay for compound interest.
I only bring NCR, a nano fraction of my portfolio come board today make e motivate people wey still dey the game — no cap, no lamba, no exaggeration, just the real numbers. Ironically, I remember say you (or person wey get similar handle) sell your own for sub-₦30 at the command of your fast fingers because fear catch you that time. Nothing personal, e just dey show say wetin one person call “luck” na another person’s patience and conviction.
My philosophy dey simple: I stay strictly inside my circle of competence and within the cash I fit comot for mouth. I do not borrow to invest.
Once company no dey pay dividend, I no dey average up or down — I just siddon dey look. Time, more than anything, dey always resurrect good business wey dey face temporary headwind.
I no get strength to turn this place to ego-wrestling arena again. Make we allow the thread rest.
You go still see more real, motivating, no-cap, no lamba stories from me in the coming days. If e pain you, you fit mute me — no wahala. But the results no go mute themselves.
Remain blessed.

emmanuelewumi:
The unofficial feedback is that Presco got the N250 billion

i think the only guaranteed rights that would have been paid for was the 60% stake by SIAT. The other investors had many who would rather pick from the floor rather than the rights issue. so i doubt if it will be fully subscribed, unless there are standby investors who willingly took up rights that were not claimed

EDUECO:
When did ACCESSCORP get to ₦30 this year or last year?

Or abi you turn become APC member?

Okay, I think the highest was 28, but the fact remains that when Agba mentioned 20, you pushed back against it. Yes or no? Can you repeat what you said?

vacanci:
Economy is disgraced
Nigeria is disgraced
NGX is disgraced

yet you come to NSEMPA every minute. Are you not contradicting yourself?

I come because it does not belong to u or your family.
That is only when u have right to complain.
Or u stop coming. I forgot u come to beg sometimes..lol