₦airaland Forum

Mankind2024:
My brother, the NSEMPA no1 impatient and arrogant trader, thank you for the free publicity and for giving me the opportunity to clear the air once and for all.

1. “Negative shareholders’ funds and a failing business model”
- In Feb 2021, NCR had negative equity of about –N1.2bn. That’s public information.
- What is also public information is that the company had over N8bn in installed base contracts (maintenance of ATMs, POS, and self-service kiosks across banks and oil companies), contracts that renew every 3–5 years almost automatically.
- I saw a situation where the market was pricing a 130-year-old technology franchise with monopoly-like service contracts as if it was heading for liquidation… for N180m market cap. That’s not a “failing business model.” That’s the bargain of the decade.

2. “Why only N170k? That doesn’t show confidence.”
- In 2021 I was a salary earner, struggling with life and family responsibilities. N170k was part of my liquid net worth at the time — exactly the position size I allocate to my highest-conviction ideas when they are this depressed.
- Confidence is not measured by how much you bet when something is already obvious to everyone. Real conviction is measured by how much you are willing to allocate when literally nobody else sees it.
- Today that N170k is worth N3.635 million. I sleep very well with that “small” conviction.

3. “You only got 20x in 4–5 years while people who bought at the 52-week low got 18x in one year — so it’s luck.”
- People who bought at the 52-week low in early 2025 paid between N4 and N6. They are enjoying the ride now, and I’m genuinely happy for them.
- But let’s be honest: in early 2025, the turnaround was already visible to anyone who cared to read the 2024 results and the H1 2025 numbers. The stock had started moving. It was no longer invisible.
- I bought when the company was still bleeding, when the chart was flat for four years, when the average daily volume was sometimes 200 shares, when people on this same forum were calling it “dead money, Iliquid stock.”
- That’s not luck. That’s buying when fear was maximum and facts were minimum.

4. “Paint the full picture so people can learn.”
- The full picture is simple: I looked for a company with:
(a) a moat (service contracts that competitors can’t easily take),
(b) a tiny market cap relative to its installed base,
(c) a share count that made a future re-rating mathematically explosive (108 million units), and
(d) zero chance of permanent capital loss because the business would still be needed even if it crawled along for another decade.
- I didn’t need 2025 results to see that. Everything I needed was already there in 2021 for anyone willing to read beyond the headline loss.

Finally, I have never claimed to be a genius like you. I just refused to complicate what is painfully simple: buy great (or decent) businesses when nobody wants them, do nothing, and let time work.

If waiting 4–5 years for 20x (so far) while collecting zero dividends and watching red headlines every quarter is “luck,” then I pray every member of this forum continues to enjoy such terrible luck.

To everyone else reading: the next NCR is already on the NGX today — trading at N5–N15, negative equity, zero volume, and plenty of people calling it trash.
You don’t need luck. You only need the stomach to be early and the patience to be quiet.

God bless you all.
And thank you again, the arrogant trader, for bumping my post to the top. Much appreciated. 🙏🏾

You can share the stock with the house.

Its an open market.

We can all win.

Cheers

Iskalamong

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Economy looks good o, at least from high up here. But as one guy whose post I saw recently on X - "maintaining a net-neutral" stance. Too many variables.

Streetinvestor2:
Good u gamble paid off.Then again what is happening in the price presently is high level manipulation of its price.It is not fundamentals justifying or pushing the price up.The MM just comes every day to drop 100k units and do the magic. I see some stocks here doing or going to do same so I will personally not ascribe it to investor special inputs.Your gamble just paid off and not really the patient investor theory that should be sold to new guys in this business . E get some kind stocks for such thing here.And on serious note I believed u had money to top up from 2021 to 2025 if u had tight prove conviction about that company. Enjoy u loot.I hope it does not hook ur throat when u want to convert the paper profit to real money like total is showing me now

Many expensive (N500 upwards) and manipulated Nigerian stocks have their times of illiquidity.

Examples BUAFoods, Dangcem, Geregu, Airtel, Seplat (Yes, even Seplat) e.t.c.

The strategy is to sell them when they are liquid.

Or quickly take your profit while the bullrun is on.

Cheers

Regards,

ISKALAMONG!

pluto09:
It is the kind of narrative that makes people believe they can just buy any stock and make money once they can wait it out .
It is nothing but pure luck

That applies to Nigeria though.

You see such stocks appreciating significantly during bulls.

However, in developed markets, such companies could go bankrupt or lose 90% of their values overnight e.t.c.

They are extremely risky.

I think the reason for that is the fact that you can take short position easily and there is high liquidity.

Here (on the NGX), its all long with very little or no shorts. Hence, you might easily get away with buying them blindly (most times).

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

ositadima1:
I don’t think it’s 100% luck, but he’s clearly exaggerating in his post. The points he made are solid, just not strong enough, which is why he hasn’t been adding to his position all this while. It’s like having a strong feeling that Manchester City will beat Fulham based on certain indicators, but you’re still not fully sure, so you bet responsibly, lol.

I will digress a little.

I think one has to invest responsibly when it comes to investments that are Marked to Market (MTM).

This is because it affects the investor or traders psychology. In my opinion, it may be the reason many shy away from investing in risky assets like stocks.

Unlike investments in illiquid assets like real estate or properties. The daily prices are not published.

You simply buy, hold, revalue after a reasonable time and then sell. No daily MTM pressure.

Cheers

Iskalamong!

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nosa2:
Not necessarily. Someone could be selling strategically but that's not manipulation

It's mostly manipulation.

Then momentum traders join since the trend is common.

Typical examples are in Geregu, Buacement, Sunu Assurance, Mecure. It happened at some point in these stocks.

Cheers

Iskalamong!

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ositadima1:
Yeah, some people tell stories to feel good, I do that sometimes. But you can still make outsized returns by using strategies and models; that’s a fact. The market has hidden patterns you can exploit to make money. So yes, on average, people do make money. I’m living proof, and there are many others here who don’t talk about their wins at all, so you never hear about them.

In the Nigerian market, its hard not to make money if youre patient.

Buy good companies. At good valuations. If you dont know valuations, check chart, buy on pullbacks. Once you do this, youre good.

For example: MTNN hit N200 plus. There was a pull back. It hit c.270 or so. There was a pull back. It crosses N300. There was a even more serious pull back. Now, it has crossed N500.

Good stocks/Fundamentally solid stocks tend to be on an uptrend over the long term.

The strategy is to buy then on pullbacks and give it time (sell during bulls/rallies). You'll be fine.

Best regards,

ISKALAMONG

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Hello all. I am kindly seeking advice on how to purchase Ellah lakes shares via the public offer. NGX is listed as the platform on their website but it only has paystack as a payment option.

Has anyone been able to navigate this please?

EDUECO:
When did ACCESSCORP get to ₦30 this year or last year?

Or abi you done become APC member?

It actually crossed the N30 mark.

I think early 2024.

Then it dropped same year below the N16 mark.

Cheers

Iskalamong



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iskalamong:
I will digress a little.

I think one has to invest responsibly when it comes to investments that are Marked to Market (MTM).

This is because it affects the investor or traders psychology. In my opinion, it may be the reason many shy away from investing in risky assets like stocks.

Unlike investments in illiquid assets like real estate or properties. The daily prices are not published.

You simply buy, hold, revalue after a reasonable time and then sell. No daily MTM pressure.

Cheers

Iskalamong!

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I get your point, but you’re not seeing where I’m coming from. According to him, he invested in 2021, and by 2023 he himself showed us that his stock portfolio was over ₦300 million, the posts are here, I’m not guessing. If his convictions were as strong as he’s claiming today, he would have increased that position to at least ₦1 million. In 2023 the stock was still relatively cheap. He could have sold stocks that had peaked or added more from dividends.

Now he comes here claiming he ‘always knew’ it would turn out like this, after the fact. What I’m saying is: the reason he didn’t add to the position all this while is because, consciously or unconsciously, he was weighting it down due to perceived risk compared to his other holdings.

EDUECO:
It is not possible because ACCESSCORP will definately pay 2025 full year dividend.

Accesscorp did not pay interim this year.

If they miss final dividend next year, then N15 is a possibilty. Especially as next year is pre-election year (historically bearish).

Also, when you consider that fact that Accesscorp dropped below N16 last year amid the recapitalisation saga, you'll see that N15 is not too much a big of a deal should the company's performance miss expectations in an unexcited market.

FY' 2025 results will also have an important role to play as well as the early 2026 quarterly results.

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ositadima1:
I get your point, but you’re not seeing where I’m coming from. According to him, he invested in 2021, and by 2023 he himself showed us that his stock portfolio was over ₦300 million, the posts are here, I’m not guessing. If his convictions were as strong as he’s claiming today, he would have increased that position to at least ₦1 million. In 2023 the stock was still relatively cheap. He could have sold stocks that had peaked or added more from dividends.

Now he comes here claiming he ‘always knew’ it would turn out like this, after the fact. What I’m saying is: the reason he didn’t add to the position all this while is because, consciously or unconsciously, he was weighting it down due to perceived risk compared to his other holdings.

I agree with you.

For a bet on a cheap stock, 1% of one's portfolio is small enough. In this case that would be c.1 million naira for a 100 million naira portfolio.

And in Nigeria, we tend to be aggressive. Thus, having a stock that is 10% or more of one's portfolio is common place. Especially with experienced traders/investors.

In a nutshell, if he is convinced that the stock will rise he shouldn't be using less than 0.25% on the stock.

That is more like a random or speculative bet that one can easily forgo even if it turns to zero.

Regards,

Iskalamong!

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https://open.spotify.com/episode/7243xGAdqXSuMWLm0rvDqX

A summary of today's trading session on the NGX.

mikeapollo:
I can see some people wey say dem no get power, now dem dey get power pursue Ellah enter everywhere!

Na you dey pursue me enter everywhere... Kinni mo se fun e?

Mankind2024:
@Agbalowomeri,
I understand.
When you missed Transcorp from sub N1.20 to N50+, you called it manipulation.
When you missed Transcorp Hotels from N6 to N120+, you called Tony Elumelu a cowboy.
Now that NCR has gone from N3 to N72+ in the same market where you’ve been shouting “everything is manipulated,” it’s still manipulation.
At this point, it’s no longer the stocks that are the problem.
It’s the mirror.
I once told you that a degree in market timing and TA is not a guaranty for success in the market. I hope you are still timing the index to reach your crystal ball level of 50,000? Keep enjoying your fixed income assets.
One day, when the next forgotten stock quietly turns N200,000 into N10 million+ while you’re still typing “manipulation,” maybe the pattern will finally click.
Until then, keep condemning.
The rest of us will keep buying the ones you hate, and keep thanking you for the conviction confirmation.
God bless you abundantly, Mr Agbalowomeri. Your service to patient investors is deeply appreciated.

Ellah was N3 not long ago.. if you know you know.. if not, go figure

awesomeJ:
Even if 170k was all you had in 2021, why haven't you been adding more over the past 5 years?

It doesn't seem like you really believed in the company as much as you're trying to paint.

It looks more like you were stuck for 5 years and finally got lucky.

That's just my opinion though.


Now when nosa2 was saying people shouldn't quote figures, hoe could we have corrected this narrative if we simply thought he made 2000%


Seeing that he only put in 170k helps see that it isn't likely that he believed much in the business as much as he tries to convey.

I think he has a gambling account aside his fundamentally sound stock account.
So he invest let's say 200k per stock on shitty stocks and wait.
In 5 years, 2 will rise 1000% giving 4m while 3 will perform poorly, he only loses 600k or less if they badly

iskalamong:
Accesscorp did not pay interim this year.

If they miss final dividend next year, then N15 is a possibilty. Especially as next year is pre-election year (historically bearish).

Also, when you consider that fact that Accesscorp dropped below N16 last year amid the recapitalisation saga, you'll see that N15 is not too much a big of a deal should the company's performance miss expectations in an unexcited market.

FY' 2025 results will also have an important role to play as well as the early 2026 quarterly results.

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Even PeTerRiChY thought ACCESS would pay 18kobo interim dividend It is obvious that ACCESS will not pay any final dividend

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyWRn6KLvGY

A short video summary of the NGX today.

Feygbe:
Hello all. I am kindly seeking advice on how to purchase Ellah lakes shares via the public offer. NGX is listed as the platform on their website but it only has paystack as a payment option.

Has anyone been able to navigate this please?

Yes.
Was able to pick FCMB Public Offer for some relatives paying thru Paystack.
I think it's genuine since it's NGX website for investing.
Besides, once done, you'll see details of the transaction listed therein till the offer closes......and after allotment, your quantity will be credited directly to your CSCS acct.

I have come to believe that nothing wounds a disciplined investor more than being called “lucky.”
The word is flung like a careless stone, meant to diminish a decade of deliberate choices into a roll of cosmic dice. But luck, as most people speak of it, is an illusion—an optical trick created by short-sightedness. What looks like fortune from the outside is almost always the quiet harvest of patience on the inside.

Let me say this plainly: sharing one’s unsolicited investment journey is not an invitation to be crowned by chance. It is simply the prerogative—indeed, the fundamental right—of anyone who has chosen to walk the narrow path of equity without the crutches of debt leverage. We allocate our scarce resources according to our convictions, our temperament, and our tolerance for the long night. That is not luck. That is sovereignty.

One of the quiet missions behind my writings on the Nigerian Capital Market has been to rekindle reverence for a forgotten virtue: time in the market, not timing the market. History is merciless on this point. The frenetic trader—our own local version of Awesome, forever jumping in and out with the agility of a grasshopper—usually ends poorer than the tortoise who simply stayed invested. The market rewards presence far more generously than it rewards cleverness.

The smart do not always win this race. The swift, the brilliant, the hyperactive—none are guaranteed the prize. Discipline and patience, those two unglamorous sisters, are the ones who cross the tape with heavy garlands.

To the critics who rushed to label a personal story “luck,” permit me to address you directly and gently. I, too, believe in grace. I have seen it descend without announcement and lift ordinary efforts into extraordinary outcomes. But grace is not the same as luck. Grace partners with preparation; luck is what people invent when they refuse to acknowledge the preparation.

Your pronouncement of “luck” is therefore futile and, if I may say, baseless. Hyperactivity in the market—buying today, selling tomorrow, scrolling charts at 2 a.m.—rarely translates into durable wealth. The Preacher in Ecclesiastes saw it clearly three millennia ago:

“I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.” (Ecclesiastes 9:11 KJV)

Notice the twist: time and chance happen to all, but only those who respect time get to keep the chance when it finally smiles.

I was never the brilliant investor that Pa Emmanuel was. I never had the privileged whisper that Mercy seemed to enjoy. My edge was laughably simple: I read until I understood a company that interested me, made a decision, and then did the hardest thing known to homo sapiens in a bull market—I sat still. Charlie Munger once reduced a lifetime of wisdom into a single sentence: “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.” I took that sentence as gospel. Never interrupt a compounding stock. That has been my guiding star, both in the wild Nigerian market and in the more temperate foreign indices where my portfolio has grown, modestly but relentlessly.

You do not wake up a stock multimillionaire because a leprechaun tapped your brokerage account. You arrive there after a thousand small decisions to do nothing when every fibre of your being screamed “do something!” Wealth in equities is the reward of patience, steadfastness, perseverance, and the quiet discipline to treat volatility as tuition—expensive, boring, but ultimately refundable in compound interest.

The Nigerian market of recent years has been an unforgiving classroom. I still remember the season when impatience was my invisible tax collector; I transferred wealth to more patient hands with every rash click of the sell button. Those days are gone. Today I am unmoved by the daily earthquake of prices. Rumours of Capital Gains Tax hikes, sudden foreign-exodus selloffs, breathless headlines announcing yet another “crash”—they wash over me like rain on a tin roof. I do nothing. I ignore the noise. That learned inaction is not luck; it is strategy distilled from bitter experience and from the calm voice of Charlie Munger echoing across decades.

So the next time you see a portfolio that has grown quietly while the crowd panicked and partied in turns, resist the temptation to call it luck. What you are witnessing is the outward evidence of an inward grace: the grace to wait, the grace to sit still, the grace to let time—the most powerful force in the financial universe—do its invisible work.

Luck is the story people tell when they don’t want to admit that someone simply refused to blink.
I blinked once. I learned. And I have spent the years since keeping my eyes wide open—and my hands gloriously still.
That, dear reader, is not luck.
That is the long, beautiful obedience in the same direction.

Mankind2024:
I have come to believe that nothing wounds a disciplined investor more than being called “lucky.”
The word is flung like a careless stone, meant to diminish a decade of deliberate choices into a roll of cosmic dice. But luck, as most people speak of it, is an illusion—an optical trick created by short-sightedness. What looks like fortune from the outside is almost always the quiet harvest of patience on the inside.

Let me say this plainly: sharing one’s unsolicited investment journey is not an invitation to be crowned by chance. It is simply the prerogative—indeed, the fundamental right—of anyone who has chosen to walk the narrow path of equity without the crutches of debt leverage. We allocate our scarce resources according to our convictions, our temperament, and our tolerance for the long night. That is not luck. That is sovereignty.

One of the quiet missions behind my writings on the Nigerian Capital Market has been to rekindle reverence for a forgotten virtue: time in the market, not timing the market. History is merciless on this point. The frenetic trader—our own local version of Awesome, forever jumping in and out with the agility of a grasshopper—usually ends poorer than the tortoise who simply stayed invested. The market rewards presence far more generously than it rewards cleverness.

The smart do not always win this race. The swift, the brilliant, the hyperactive—none are guaranteed the prize. Discipline and patience, those two unglamorous sisters, are the ones who cross the tape with heavy garlands.

To the critics who rushed to label a personal story “luck,” permit me to address you directly and gently. I, too, believe in grace. I have seen it descend without announcement and lift ordinary efforts into extraordinary outcomes. But grace is not the same as luck. Grace partners with preparation; luck is what people invent when they refuse to acknowledge the preparation.

Your pronouncement of “luck” is therefore futile and, if I may say, baseless. Hyperactivity in the market—buying today, selling tomorrow, scrolling charts at 2 a.m.—rarely translates into durable wealth. The Preacher in Ecclesiastes saw it clearly three millennia ago:

“I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.” (Ecclesiastes 9:11 KJV)

Notice the twist: time and chance happen to all, but only those who respect time get to keep the chance when it finally smiles.

I was never the brilliant investor that Pa Emmanuel was. I never had the privileged whisper that Mercy seemed to enjoy. My edge was laughably simple: I read until I understood a company that interested me, made a decision, and then did the hardest thing known to homo sapiens in a bull market—I sat still. Charlie Munger once reduced a lifetime of wisdom into a single sentence: “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.” I took that sentence as gospel. Never interrupt a compounding stock. That has been my guiding star, both in the wild Nigerian market and in the more temperate foreign indices where my portfolio has grown, modestly but relentlessly.

You do not wake up a stock multimillionaire because a leprechaun tapped your brokerage account. You arrive there after a thousand small decisions to do nothing when every fibre of your being screamed “do something!” Wealth in equities is the reward of patience, steadfastness, perseverance, and the quiet discipline to treat volatility as tuition—expensive, boring, but ultimately refundable in compound interest.

The Nigerian market of recent years has been an unforgiving classroom. I still remember the season when impatience was my invisible tax collector; I transferred wealth to more patient hands with every rash click of the sell button. Those days are gone. Today I am unmoved by the daily earthquake of prices. Rumours of Capital Gains Tax hikes, sudden foreign-exodus selloffs, breathless headlines announcing yet another “crash”—they wash over me like rain on a tin roof. I do nothing. I ignore the noise. That learned inaction is not luck; it is strategy distilled from bitter experience and from the calm voice of Charlie Munger echoing across decades.

So the next time you see a portfolio that has grown quietly while the crowd panicked and partied in turns, resist the temptation to call it luck. What you are witnessing is the outward evidence of an inward grace: the grace to wait, the grace to sit still, the grace to let time—the most powerful force in the financial universe—do its invisible work.

Luck is the story people tell when they don’t want to admit that someone simply refused to blink.
I blinked once. I learned. And I have spent the years since keeping my eyes wide open—and my hands gloriously still.
That, dear reader, is not luck.
That is the long, beautiful obedience in the same direction.

Bros na English u do for school..Abi u do writing as hubby. You suppose write novel or books
Has all the stock u picked delivered over time based on this your mentor strategy.
I am asking because some of my own closed shop in my waiting period..lol
And some are taking over 10 yrs to deliver like abc,ikaja hotel ,Tantalizer. This is after I have written them off as my school fees.

On another note.That means kpakus can deliver in 30 yr time

Mankind2024:
I have come to believe that nothing wounds a disciplined investor more than being called “lucky.”
The word is flung like a careless stone, meant to diminish a decade of deliberate choices into a roll of cosmic dice. But luck, as most people speak of it, is an illusion—an optical trick created by short-sightedness. What looks like fortune from the outside is almost always the quiet harvest of patience on the inside.

Let me say this plainly: sharing one’s unsolicited investment journey is not an invitation to be crowned by chance. It is simply the prerogative—indeed, the fundamental right—of anyone who has chosen to walk the narrow path of equity without the crutches of debt leverage. We allocate our scarce resources according to our convictions, our temperament, and our tolerance for the long night. That is not luck. That is sovereignty.

One of the quiet missions behind my writings on the Nigerian Capital Market has been to rekindle reverence for a forgotten virtue: time in the market, not timing the market. History is merciless on this point. The frenetic trader—our own local version of Awesome, forever jumping in and out with the agility of a grasshopper—usually ends poorer than the tortoise who simply stayed invested. The market rewards presence far more generously than it rewards cleverness.

The smart do not always win this race. The swift, the brilliant, the hyperactive—none are guaranteed the prize. Discipline and patience, those two unglamorous sisters, are the ones who cross the tape with heavy garlands.

To the critics who rushed to label a personal story “luck,” permit me to address you directly and gently. I, too, believe in grace. I have seen it descend without announcement and lift ordinary efforts into extraordinary outcomes. But grace is not the same as luck. Grace partners with preparation; luck is what people invent when they refuse to acknowledge the preparation.

Your pronouncement of “luck” is therefore futile and, if I may say, baseless. Hyperactivity in the market—buying today, selling tomorrow, scrolling charts at 2 a.m.—rarely translates into durable wealth. The Preacher in Ecclesiastes saw it clearly three millennia ago:

“I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.” (Ecclesiastes 9:11 KJV)

Notice the twist: time and chance happen to all, but only those who respect time get to keep the chance when it finally smiles.

I was never the brilliant investor that Pa Emmanuel was. I never had the privileged whisper that Mercy seemed to enjoy. My edge was laughably simple: I read until I understood a company that interested me, made a decision, and then did the hardest thing known to homo sapiens in a bull market—I sat still. Charlie Munger once reduced a lifetime of wisdom into a single sentence: “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.” I took that sentence as gospel. Never interrupt a compounding stock. That has been my guiding star, both in the wild Nigerian market and in the more temperate foreign indices where my portfolio has grown, modestly but relentlessly.

You do not wake up a stock multimillionaire because a leprechaun tapped your brokerage account. You arrive there after a thousand small decisions to do nothing when every fibre of your being screamed “do something!” Wealth in equities is the reward of patience, steadfastness, perseverance, and the quiet discipline to treat volatility as tuition—expensive, boring, but ultimately refundable in compound interest.

The Nigerian market of recent years has been an unforgiving classroom. I still remember the season when impatience was my invisible tax collector; I transferred wealth to more patient hands with every rash click of the sell button. Those days are gone. Today I am unmoved by the daily earthquake of prices. Rumours of Capital Gains Tax hikes, sudden foreign-exodus selloffs, breathless headlines announcing yet another “crash”—they wash over me like rain on a tin roof. I do nothing. I ignore the noise. That learned inaction is not luck; it is strategy distilled from bitter experience and from the calm voice of Charlie Munger echoing across decades.

So the next time you see a portfolio that has grown quietly while the crowd panicked and partied in turns, resist the temptation to call it luck. What you are witnessing is the outward evidence of an inward grace: the grace to wait, the grace to sit still, the grace to let time—the most powerful force in the financial universe—do its invisible work.

Luck is the story people tell when they don’t want to admit that someone simply refused to blink.
I blinked once. I learned. And I have spent the years since keeping my eyes wide open—and my hands gloriously still.
That, dear reader, is not luck.
That is the long, beautiful obedience in the same direction.

Whom are you really directing this very long post to?
You've found a strategy that works for you, all you have to do is stick with it.

On my part, note that I didn't say you were lucky, I only said "Given he limited context you shared, maybe yours was more luck than NCR being a sound company" Then I asked you to give more context which you did, so that should do.

When you sit in your small mindset thinking your boring strategy is the only one that works, commenting on trading strategies you're completely clueless about then you're not being very smart, smartness implies you realize that you don't appraise what you're a novice at.

The N3.5m you waited 5 years to make, only takes me abot 1 month to make. CONSISTENTLY!

You waited 5 years to make 2000% on a holding that you were only comfortable putting less than 1% of your portfolio on, meaning what you're celebrating only added 20% to your portfolio in 5 years.

If I assume I had N1m in January, Then my portfolio is already up 3000% in one year. My overall portfolio!

if i say it's 100k, then it's 30,000% in year, compare that to your mediocre 20% and rest

I actually had -N5m at thestart of this year. Much less than 100k. I wasn't broke, I just was cash strapped.

awesomeJ:
The N3.5m you waited 5 years to make, only takes me abot 1 month to make. CONSISTENTLY!

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Dearis God oh
See fABU on the beat

Also @Mankind2024.

While you're having your boring wait for 5 years that may or may not payoff, I would have contributed over N100m in brokerage fees to two brokers.

I think of that as being responsible for the salaries of 2 employees on about N6m -N10m per annum.

My strategy provides significant earnings for my brokers and thus some of their employees, that gives me joy.

Yours while boring lacks such impact.

So stick to the little you understand.

Maybe if you commit another 10-30 years to learning, you might find better strategies.

Locotrader:
Risk-averse investor.
Always preserving capital.
Investing in low risk equities and fixed Income instruments.

Always in fear.
Always seeing bears

You must be old man joor

save your capital, this is not time to buy.......sideline for now, too many uncertainties, market is bearish...

awesomeJ:
Also @Mankind2024.

While you're having your boring wait for 5 years that may or may not payoff, I would have contributed over N100m in brokerage fees to two brokers.

This is class example of OPM.
The brokers will everly be happy for doing absolutely nothing to earn free money..lol

Streetinvestor2:
This is class example of OPM.
The brokers will everly be happy for doing absolutely nothing to earn free money..lol

I'm happy to give it to them.
I'm happy I get the privilege to contribute that much to people's livelihood.

If you are of the school of thought that it's a bad thing that brokers make money off your account, you should probably change.

Why should anyone not be happy that people are benefitting from him?

Why some of you feel bad about that is baffling!

I'm happy both my brokers get at least N1m per month.

I'm working on making it N10m per month very soon. Imagine what that translates to for their businesses for the jobs they provide.

And also perhaps with that It'll even be that I can help them keep the fees they charge low while sustaining their businesses. That would be something that benefits thousands of their customers that get to enjoy such low fees.


That's my mindset.

This mindset of brokers must never make money from me needs a reset. You guys should unlearn it.

If you don't want brokers making money off you, get your own trading license, and build your own robust trading platform.

awesomeJ:
I'm happy to give it to them.
I'm happy I get the privilege to contribute that much to people's livelihood.

If you are of the school of thought that it's a bad thing that brokers make money off your account, you should probably change.

Why should anyone not be happy that people are benefitting from him?

Why some of you feel bad about that is baffling!

I'm happy both my brokers get at least N1m per month.

I'm working on making it N10m per month very soon. Imagine what that translates to for their businesses for the jobs they provide.

And also perhaps with that It'll even be that I can help them keep the fees they charge low while sustaining their businesses. That would be something that benefits thousands of their customers that get to enjoy such low fees.


That's my mindset.

This mindset of brokers must never make money from me needs a reset. You guys should unlearn it.

If you don't want brokers making money off you, get your own trading license, and build your own robust trading platform.

Why are you looking for cheap brokers fee then?

Mankind2024:
My brother, the NSEMPA no1 impatient and arrogant trader, thank you for the free publicity and for giving me the opportunity to clear the air once and for all.

1. “Negative shareholders’ funds and a failing business model”
- In Feb 2021, NCR had negative equity of about –N1.2bn. That’s public information.
- What is also public information is that the company had over N8bn in installed base contracts (maintenance of ATMs, POS, and self-service kiosks across banks and oil companies), contracts that renew every 3–5 years almost automatically.
- I saw a situation where the market was pricing a 130-year-old technology franchise with monopoly-like service contracts as if it was heading for liquidation… for N180m market cap. That’s not a “failing business model.” That’s the bargain of the decade.

2. “Why only N170k? That doesn’t show confidence.”
- In 2021 I was a salary earner, struggling with life and family responsibilities. N170k was part of my liquid net worth at the time — exactly the position size I allocate to my highest-conviction ideas when they are this depressed.
- Confidence is not measured by how much you bet when something is already obvious to everyone. Real conviction is measured by how much you are willing to allocate when literally nobody else sees it.
- Today that N170k is worth N3.635 million. I sleep very well with that “small” conviction.

3. “You only got 20x in 4–5 years while people who bought at the 52-week low got 18x in one year — so it’s luck.”
- People who bought at the 52-week low in early 2025 paid between N4 and N6. They are enjoying the ride now, and I’m genuinely happy for them.
- But let’s be honest: in early 2025, the turnaround was already visible to anyone who cared to read the 2024 results and the H1 2025 numbers. The stock had started moving. It was no longer invisible.
- I bought when the company was still bleeding, when the chart was flat for four years, when the average daily volume was sometimes 200 shares, when people on this same forum were calling it “dead money, Iliquid stock.”
- That’s not luck. That’s buying when fear was maximum and facts were minimum.

4. “Paint the full picture so people can learn.”
- The full picture is simple: I looked for a company with:
(a) a moat (service contracts that competitors can’t easily take),
(b) a tiny market cap relative to its installed base,
(c) a share count that made a future re-rating mathematically explosive (108 million units), and
(d) zero chance of permanent capital loss because the business would still be needed even if it crawled along for another decade.
- I didn’t need 2025 results to see that. Everything I needed was already there in 2021 for anyone willing to read beyond the headline loss.

Finally, I have never claimed to be a genius like you. I just refused to complicate what is painfully simple: buy great (or decent) businesses when nobody wants them, do nothing, and let time work.

If waiting 4–5 years for 20x (so far) while collecting zero dividends and watching red headlines every quarter is “luck,” then I pray every member of this forum continues to enjoy such terrible luck.

To everyone else reading: the next NCR is already on the NGX today — trading at N5–N15, negative equity, zero volume, and plenty of people calling it trash.
You don’t need luck. You only need the stomach to be early and the patience to be quiet.

God bless you all.
And thank you again, the arrogant trader, for bumping my post to the top. Much appreciated. 🙏🏾

Well, just took my time to read this.

Nice analysis mankind

Mankind2024:
@crownprince,
I truly wish I could just whisper the names and save everyone the work, but that would go against everything I stand for here.
I am a stubborn, boring, long-term investor who spends weeks (sometimes months) digging through old annual reports, contract footprints, share-count structures, and negative-equity balance sheets that make most people run away. My edge is exactly that homework + the patience to wait until the market finally wakes up years later.
If I start mentioning specific names now, two things will happen:
Many will buy tomorrow without doing their own work (and blame me when Mr. Market decides to sleep one extra year).
My own conviction gets diluted the day it becomes a crowd trade.
So please, forgive me – I will never hand out tickers like evangelism tracts.
What I can promise is this: the next NCR(s) are already on the NGX today.
They have:
Market caps below N15 billion
Prices between N4 and N18
Very low daily volume (sometimes less than 100,000 units)
Plenty of red headlines and negative equity
Tiny share counts (under 1 billion units, preferably under 500 million)
Businesses that Nigeria will still need in 2030 even if profits stay flat for years
That’s more than enough breadcrumbs.
Anyone willing to open the NGX website, sort by market cap or volume, and read a few annual reports will stumble on them in less than one weekend.
To everyone who has sent emails/DMs: I genuinely appreciate the love, but the email tied to this moniker was deleted the same day I created the account (old habit – I hate inbox clutter and I never keep disposable emails). So I can’t see or reply to anything sent there. Apologies.
Do your own digging, buy only what you understand and can sleep with for 5–7 years, and may we all live long enough to tell our own 20x stories one day.
God bless you all.

This is more than enough to go to work.

Kudos

nosa2:
Not necessarily. Someone could be selling strategically but that's not manipulation

I want to believe the market makers now have material non-public information to reprice the stock.

sboga:
by broda dey r Ba starts
dem suppose change d M to B
N to S
and S to T

I think you need to take your drugs, seems you skipped it