₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
Do you know why lottery winners usually go broke?

It is because they don't have the capacity for the money that came their way, so the money will be wasted till it gets to their capacity.


Eg you have a 5 liters container and you are trying to pour a content of 20 liters into it. You will end up wasting 15 liters of the content.

Better to pour 5 liters, after using the content eg water or petrol, you pour another 5 liters and continue again and again.


A company that has not made a revenue of N500 million per annum in the last 10 years is now looking for N250 billion from investors. They did not ask for N10 billion, no be juju be dat?


There is a high probability that the fund will not be optimally utilized

emmanuelewumi:
Do you know why lottery winners usually go broke?

It is because they don't have the capacity for the money that came their way, so the money will be wasted till it gets to their capacity.


Eg you have a 5 liters container and you are trying to pour a content of 20 liters into it. You will end up wasting 15 liters of the content.

Better to pour 5 liters, after using the content eg water or petrol, you pour another 5 liters and continue again and again.


A company that has not made a revenue of N500 million per annum in the last 10 years is now looking for N250 billion from investors. They did not ask for N10 billion, no be juju be dat?


There is a high probability that the fund will not be optimally utilized

emmanuelewumi:
Unofficial feedback they have extended the offer.

We wait till next week for more clarity

Locotrader:
Sometimes your comments on Ellah lakes irritates me a lot.
This is a company that has been bashed by many in the past and it keeps on defying people.

Are the Mgt so bias that they don't know the value of N250B or they don't know what prompted them to look for such amount?
Even if they are unable to raise the money is none of your business.

Do you have any stake with them?No
Pls allow them to raise their money in peace.
What of if the offer is oversubscribed?
What will you have to say?

Peter thought that the Gentiles were unclean until God shewed him in the house of Cornelius.

Mind you that Ellah lakes can turn to be the leader in that sector tomorrow.Its a matter of policies favouring them.

handsomebolanle:
I may not agree with you on somethings.

But for this, I’m in full agreement with this.

I had to jump out from the stocks.

Do people even know what 250billy is??

emmanuelewumi:
It is official

HesInMe:
I wish them much success, but the more interesting question is what happens if Ellah falls far short of the N155bn it needs to buy the oil palm plantation it is betting on to "arrive."

Mpeace:
if they fall short, it would be difficult meeting up with the balance. They will also have to source for money to complete the asset purchase.
Then them go need to write looong forward looking statement.

SonofElElyonRet:
Hmmmmm... Prayer mode activated. Hope they eventually meet their N250b target

Locotrader:
Looks like we will still have a strong bull by January

Let AsI arrive 50k first ,we go access the bull capacity.

emmaodet:
According to Bismarck Rewane, the economist he is predicitng Ngx ASI market cap to hit 260 trillion naira in 2026 from the current 93 trillion.
That is a 150% rise from the current ASI number.
He predicts a bull.

KarlTom:
It's written in the stars with DANGREFINE & NNPCL coming on board...

Agbalowomeri:
I tire o. It has nothing to do with ASI

Chief Executive of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane,
Speaking at the Parthian 2025 Economic Discourse, held in Lagos, on Thursday, he projected that stock market capitalisation will triple by 2027, highlighting the potential listing of the Dangote Refinery as a game changer.
He cited improved investor confidence, new listings, rising corporate earnings, and structural efficiencies as key drivers.
“Nigeria’s stock market capitalisation could soar from the current N91 trillion to N262 trillion in 2026, and N393 trillion in 2027.

emmaodet:
According to Bismarck Rewane, the economist he is predicitng Ngx ASI market cap to hit 260 trillion naira in 2026 from the current 93 trillion.
That is a 150% rise from the current ASI number.
He predicts a bull.

SonofElElyonRet:
No be di man wey dey look for Ellah at N6 be dis?

SonofElElyonRet:
oh . They don't even need all of the N250b for the acquisition? That's some cheering news

HesInMe:
Come on. The planned use of funds is published in their offer prospectus as per usual. Whatever one thinks of Ellah's potential, we should all be compulsively fact-focused as investors.

Neither blind haters nor effusive bootlickers welcome.

ositadima1:
Market Fragility Score for the Week Ended.

Decline in aggregate market trading activity was the major driver.

HesInMe:
Honest question (don't get defensive): How will you know that this score is useful?

ositadima1:
Lol, if it gets to the 90s, I’ll close out my trading stocks and let only my investment stocks run, the dividend-paying ones I’ve held for a long time. I might even consider closing some of those too.

So in a nutshell, it tells me how bad things have become compared to last 6 months. Is that explanation good enough for you?

emmaodet:
According to Bismarck Rewane, the economist he is predicitng Ngx ASI market cap to hit 260 trillion naira in 2026 from the current 93 trillion.
That is a 150% rise from the current ASI number.
He predicts a bull.

Mankind2024:
2025: The Year That Changed How We Think About Savings and Investments

As 2025 draws to a close, Nigerian investors will remember it not merely as another calendar year, but as a profound classroom—one that taught hard, unforgettable lessons about patience, temperament, and the true meaning of capital.

The year began with an indefatigable bull run that felt almost destined. Stocks soared, portfolios swelled, and optimism filled the air like harmattan dust. Then came the whisper—regulatory forbearance. In chat groups and trading floors, the rumour spread like wildfire: banks under forbearance would be barred from paying dividends. Naïve hands panicked and sold. The bears growled, quoting the old trader’s adage: “Buy the rumour, sell the news.”

But as the Central Bank and the regulators spoke clearly, truth emerged. Most of the affected institutions had already made adequate provisions years earlier. The feared dividend ban never materialised in the apocalyptic form many imagined. The index dipped, shook off the dust, and within weeks the bull was charging again—stronger, almost defiant. What could have been a devastating crash turned into a mere pause, a hiccup swallowed by the larger uptrend.

Then came the real body blow.

In the middle of the rally, the Finance Act 2024 was signed, introducing a retrospective Capital Gains Tax on securities transactions effective January 1, 2026—10% on gains, with rumours swirling of 25–30% in some interpretations. Investors stared at their screens in disbelief. After years of zero CGT on stocks—a silent gift that had lured generations into the market—they were now being asked to hand over a significant slice of their profits to a government whose ability to deploy tax revenue prudently remained, politely speaking, unproven.

Customs Street turned red. Fast.

Portfolios that had doubled or tripled in the bull run shed 10–15% in weeks. The same hands that had refused to sell during the forbearance scare now stampeded for the exits, terrified of the taxman (Taiwo Oloyede) coming for profits they had already spent in their minds.

I sat still.

As a student of the late, great Charlie Munger, I remembered his calm counsel: in periods of market turmoil, the rational investor often does nothing. Interest rates, inflation, monetary policy, new taxes, political noise—these are forces far beyond the control of even the largest institutional investor, let alone the retail trader in Lagos, Abuja, or Port Harcourt.

So I did nothing. No panic selling. No revenge trading. No margin calls.

Instead, I reached for the one weapon every serious investor must never be without: cash.

In NSEMPA forum, we call it “the king”. Munger called it “oxygen” and, on red days, “a loaded missile”. Cash is the sword of defence when fear grips the market and impatient investors willingly transfer their wealth to the patient.

While others sold at the bottom, I deployed dry powder selectively—picking up world-class businesses at prices that made little sense just months earlier. I did not try to catch the exact bottom; I simply refused to capitulate at it.

2025 has rewritten the psychology of the Nigerian investor forever. We have learned—some of us the hard way—that bull markets do not die of old age; they are often murdered by policy. We have learned that rumours can shake trees, but only clarity fells them. And above all, we have learned that cash is not a drag on returns—it is the ultimate optionality, the margin of safety that separates surviving from thriving.

As the year ends, the market is healing again. The CGT fears have been partly priced in, clarifications have come, and patient money is being rewarded once more.

2025 did not just change our portfolios. It changed how we think about savings, about investing, and about the quiet power of doing nothing when everyone else is losing their heads.

Here’s to the lessons of 2025—painful, expensive, but priceless.

Stay patient. Stay solvent. Keep cash as your king.

The market will always test you. The question is whether you will be ready when it does.

ositadima1:
Lol, if it gets to the 90s, I’ll close out my trading stocks and let only my investment stocks run, the dividend-paying ones I’ve held for a long time. I might even consider closing some of those too.

So in a nutshell, it tells me how bad things have become compared to last 6 months. Is that explanation good enough for you?

HesInMe:
So if your score hits 90, you expect an imminent market collapse, say 20+% in a week? And if this doesn't happen, you'll know it's a dud?