Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (9882) - Nairaland
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by HesInMe: 9:39pm On Dec 12, 2025 |
See? Unlike those other dreamers yonder, Presco's tested management states clear operational and strategic rationales for this acquisition: "Nsadop and Boki are strategically located estates that complement our existing operations and expand the scale required to power our mills and refineries at higher capacity,” the chief executive of Presco, Mr Reji George, said. “This move is not only about expanding land, it is about strengthening our leadership, securing long-term supply, and reinforcing our belief in the future of Nigeria’s agribusiness sector.” chimex38: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeayus(m): 11:07pm On Dec 12, 2025 |
SpaceX:Is there a process to register? |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Panadee: 11:29pm On Dec 12, 2025 |
mikeayus:No go fall mugu o! |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by purity2all(m): 12:34am On Dec 13, 2025 |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by nosa2(m): 1:51am On Dec 13, 2025 |
emmanuelewumi:20 years is over a decade na. And my point is that the market could just have easily have wiped him out. Stating the best without stating the bad is disingenuous. Lets try keep things balanced. Plus most of you that have been in this market since 2015 have not made money oh. You can delude yourself with high numbers due to devaluation but if you have been in the NGX since 2015 you have probably lost value. A friend of mine bought a property in Orange Island for N50m in 2014/2015. We were talking few weeks ago and he was telling me how it has appreciated to almost N400m. I mentioned to him that hope he knows he has lost money in dollar terms. He replies that we don't spend dollars in Nigeria. At that point I started agreeing with him |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by SonofElElyonRet: 1:55am On Dec 13, 2025 |
HesInMe:"I have a dream" "Dreams can come true Look at me babe, I'm with you You know you gotta have hope You know you gotta be strong" 🎺🎸🥁🪗🪘 |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Stockhunter: 4:14am On Dec 13, 2025 |
PO extended. I thought as much. https://x.com/Theinitiatesplc/status/1999489169291190293 The Initiates Plc has extended its Public Offer of 932,022,138 ordinary shares at ₦9.50 from Dec 12, 2025 to Jan 12, 2026, following strong investor demand and SEC approval.
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 5:43am On Dec 13, 2025 |
nosa2:He did not lose in dollar term, he broke even. Naira to dollar in 2015 was average of N200 to $1 from CBN and average of N300 in the black market. If we used the official rate his N50 million was equivalent to $250,000. Which is now valued at about N370 million. He would have done better by investing it Eurobond Fund or equities with a Return on Invested Capital of 30% and above |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by orriyomi33(m): 6:46am On Dec 13, 2025 |
Good morning the Gurus and investors in the house. I would like to know when my CHAMS RI will be allotted, the year is almost ending. @PaEmma Nosa2 Awesome Ymcy Your responses is highly appreciated. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:13am On Dec 13, 2025 |
ositadima1:Market Fragility Score for the Week Ended.
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by handsomebolanle: 7:15am On Dec 13, 2025 |
@PaEmma @Nosa2 @AwesomeJ What do you think about TIP PO. If I’m to pick about 300k unit. Would you suggest an alternative? Abeg help a brother/son. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Stockhunter: 7:29am On Dec 13, 2025 |
There is resistance for DS at 62.9... for Jijo's only. I jumped out at 62. Waiting for it again at 55~56.. i might be wrong too... unite4real: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Raider76: 7:47am On Dec 13, 2025 |
It helps to wait and see if a resistance level may get broken this time so you don't miss a break out. However for this you may need to combine technical, sentiment and news on the stock. Stockhunter: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:55am On Dec 13, 2025 |
![]() Copied... An Analytical Framework for Day Trading: The Interplay of Volume, Float, and Market Capitalization 1.0 Introduction In the fast-paced environment of day trading, the ability to filter market noise and concentrate on a few core, high-impact indicators is a critical strategic advantage. Traders are often inundated with an overwhelming array of statistics and metrics, making it difficult to discern which data points are truly predictive of market behavior. The primary objective of this paper is to provide a formal analysis of three fundamental metrics—Volume, Float, and Market Capitalization—and explore their synergistic relationship in shaping intraday trading opportunities and risks. While each of these indicators offers a valuable snapshot of a stock's condition, their true analytical power is realized not in isolation, but through their combined interpretation as a cohesive model of supply, demand, and potential volatility. 2.0 Deconstructing the Core Metrics for Intraday Analysis A precise, functional understanding of each core metric is the foundation of any effective trading strategy. For the day trader, definitions must move beyond the academic and into the practical, framed specifically for their application in dynamic, short-term market environments. This section breaks down each component to establish its role within our analytical framework. 2.1 Volume as an Indicator of Market Demand Volume is the definitive measure of demand for a stock on a given day, representing the total number of shares traded. For the intraday analyst, it serves as a direct proxy for market interest, liquidity, and the validity of a price move. A stock that trades 100 million shares in a single session exhibits significant market participation, indicating that it has captured widespread attention. Crucially, a price advance on high volume is considered a validated move, whereas a similar advance on low volume is often viewed as weak and unsustainable. High volume signals a stock is "in play," possessing the momentum and liquidity required for short-term strategies. 2.2 Float as the Measure of Tradable Supply Float represents the total number of a company's shares that are available for trading on the open market by public investors. It is crucial to differentiate Float from a company's total shares outstanding. The latter includes large blocks of shares held by insiders, governments, or other major controlling entities, which are not readily available for trading. Float, therefore, is the most relevant measure of a stock's effective supply. At its core, short-term trading can be simplified to a question of supply and demand. A stock's price experiences exponential appreciation when demand, as indicated by trading volume, decisively overwhelms the available supply, represented by the float. This fundamental relationship is the engine behind major price movements. 2.3 Market Capitalization as a Proxy for Volatility Volatility is the potential range a stock's price can move within a single day. A stock that can rise or fall by 70% in a session exhibits high volatility, whereas one that moves only 1-2% has low volatility. This characteristic is the primary factor that creates opportunities for significant intraday profits, as it allows traders to capitalize on large price swings. A direct relationship exists between a company's Market Capitalization and its potential for volatility. Smaller companies require far less capital to influence their stock price compared to their large-cap counterparts. For the purposes of this trading style, market capitalization can be segmented into three primary areas of focus: * Micro-Cap: $0 to $100 million * Small-Cap (Tier 1): $100 to $500 million * Small-Cap (Tier 2): $500 million to $1 billion Stocks with market capitalizations above $1 billion are generally outside the typical focus for high-volatility day trading, as their immense size dampens the potential for dramatic intraday percentage moves. Having defined these individual components, we can now proceed to analyze how they interact to form a cohesive and predictive analytical model. 3.0 Synthesizing the Indicators: A Supply, Demand, and Volatility Model The strategic value of this framework emerges from the integration of these individual data points into a holistic model. By synthesizing Volume, Float, and Market Capitalization, a trader can assess not just the current state of a stock but its potential trajectory. This combined analysis provides a clearer picture of the forces at play and the potential magnitude of future price action. 3.1 The Fundamental Dynamic: Volume (Demand) vs. Float (Supply) The primary catalyst for the significant price appreciation sought by day traders is the direct causal relationship between overwhelming demand and limited supply. When trading volume surges to a level that far exceeds the available float, this acute supply-demand imbalance is the primary catalyst for the parabolic price action characteristic of high-velocity momentum trading. This dynamic is the foundational engine of momentum plays and is the first condition required for a stock to exhibit explosive potential. 3.2 The Volatility Multiplier: The Role of Market Capitalization While the Volume-Float relationship initiates a price move, market capitalization functions as a multiplier that dictates the ultimate magnitude of that move. It determines the stock's intraday range potential by defining how much capital is required to affect its price. This principle can be illustrated with a clear, comparative scenario. Assuming a hypothetical influx of $1 billion in trading value into the day trading ecosystem, its impact would vary dramatically based on the market cap of the target stock: Market Capitalization, Hypothetical Cash Influx, Resulting Price Movement Potential $100 Million, $1 Billion, Up to 1,000% $1 Billion, $1 Billion, Up to 100% The core takeaway is clear: the lower the market capitalization, the less capital is required to produce a dramatic price swing, resulting in significantly higher potential volatility. This makes low-cap stocks the primary arena for traders seeking exponential intraday returns. Having established this theoretical framework, we can now examine its practical application in a real-world trading scenario. 4.0 Application in a Trading Scenario: Predicting Price Reversals Through Consolidation Analysis This section applies the integrated framework to a specific, high-stakes trading pattern: predicting the collapse of a stock following a parabolic price spike. By analyzing the interplay of volume, float, and market psychology during a key phase, traders can anticipate a potential reversal with greater confidence. 4.1 Initial Condition: The Parabolic Spike The scenario begins with a low-market-cap stock, typically under $100 million, experiencing exponential price appreciation. For example, a stock might surge 1,000%, moving from a starting price of $1 to a peak of $10. This initial move is driven by the fundamental dynamic of demand overwhelming supply in a stock whose low market capitalization creates the conditions for extreme volatility. 4.2 The Consolidation Phase: Interpreting Volume and Float Rotation Following the parabolic advance, the stock enters a critical phase where its price moves sideways at or near its peak—a pattern known as "massive consolidation." During this period, the trading volume is often extremely high, which signifies a rapid "exchanging of hands." Early buyers who purchased the stock at low prices (e.g., $1 or $2) are now selling to capture their profits. Their shares are being absorbed by a new wave of buyers entering the trade at the peak price of $10. This leads to a phenomenon known as Float Rotation. When the trading volume during the consolidation is many multiples of the stock's float (e.g., 10 to 15 times), it is a strong indication that nearly the entire tradable supply of the stock has been transferred to participants who bought at or near the peak price. 4.3 The Catalyst for Collapse: Shareholder Distribution and Market Psychology This redistribution of shares creates an extremely fragile support level. A widely cited market axiom holds that approximately 90% of retail participants ultimately lose money. The strategic significance of float rotation, therefore, is that it concentrates the entire tradable supply of the stock into the hands of the market demographic statistically most likely to lose money and panic-sell. This creates a state of maximum fragility, where the stock's stability rests entirely on the least stable participants, all of whom have no profit cushion. Because these new holders bought at the top, they are highly sensitive to any price decline. Even a small "crack"—a 5% or 10% drop from the peak—will trigger a cascading sell-off. The selling is not just an emotional panic; it becomes a frantic, calculated rush for the exits. As the source of the model notes, "nobody wants to be the last one to sell because when you are the first one sale you will get a better execution." The high concentration of ownership at an unstable price level, identified by analyzing volume and float rotation, is the direct cause of the subsequent precipitous price collapse. 5.0 Conclusion This paper has presented a disciplined analytical framework for day traders, centered on the synthesis of three core metrics. By moving beyond a superficial view of individual statistics, traders can construct a more robust and predictive model of market behavior. The core thesis is that a disciplined, integrated analysis of Volume (demand), Float (supply), and Market Capitalization (volatility potential) provides a powerful lens for navigating short-term, high-volatility trading scenarios. This three-factor model empowers a trader to interpret market dynamics with greater depth, moving from simply reacting to price action to anticipating major movements with enhanced clarity. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by awesomeJ(m): 7:56am On Dec 13, 2025*. Modified: 10:24am On Dec 13, 2025 |
handsomebolanle:Based on current market sentiments alone, I'd say you stand to already gain 20% given the market premium vs the offer price. It touched N13 yesterday compared to N9. 5 offer price. But market sentiments can change in a hurry. There may be people who have jumped in solely for the purpose of cashing in on this spread, if the new shares get listed, they may easily depress the price by putting just 50m units on offer. That's one angle to look at. Another angle is that even this current price might be getting defended cos of the offers, and that defence might no longer exists after the offer. Those are the perspectives I have regarding the attractive discounts on the offer price. For pure fundamentals, the stock is doing below 5x earnings multiple, which I don't think is bad. For FY '26, they will have to grow their already impressive 2024 numbers by over 100% to maintain PE below 5x. Both offers will increase their OS by up to 125%, so it has to be that the new N10bn cash injection can help them grow earnings by an extra N2.5bn to around N5bn next year. For dividends and technicals, I think others will add their perspective. So weigh everything and decide. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 8:45am On Dec 13, 2025 |
Why I'm going for TIP RI and PO. The Initiates Plc (TIP), a company with one of the strongest moated business is conducting a public offer of 932,022,138 ordinary shares at ₦9.50 per share, as part of a combined capital raise (including a rights issue at ₦7.00 for existing shareholders). Recent trading prices have ranged around ₦11.00–₦13.00 (with highs above ₦13 in late 2025), confirming a meaningful discount to the market. Here is compelling, evidence-based reasoning why the public offer represents an attractive opportunity for investors, including the company's economic moat in its niche: 1. Attractive Discount to Market Price Subscribers acquire shares at ₦9.50 while the open market values them significantly higher (recent closes around ₦12.75. This provides an immediate paper gain potential upon listing of the new shares, a common incentive in successful Nigerian capital raises to encourage participation and reward new investors. The Banks RI and PO come to mind. 2. Proven Explosive Growth and Performance Momentum TIP has been one of the NGX's top performers in 2025, delivering over 480% year-to-date capital appreciation through Q3 (from ~₦2.50 early in the year to peaks above ₦13). H1 2025 financials showed: - Revenue: ₦3.39 billion (+234% YoY). - Profit after tax: Strong surge (e.g., projections for full-year profits ~₦2 billion). This growth stems from rising demand for regulated hazardous waste services, particularly in oil & gas and industrial sectors. 3. Clear, Strategic Use of Proceeds Funds are earmarked for scaling operations, technology investments, asset expansion, and entry into higher-margin areas (e.g., public waste management and West African markets). Management has emphasized consolidating leadership in sustainable waste solutions, directly fueling the revenue/profit trajectory already demonstrated. 4. Strong Economic Moat - The Only Listed Player: TIP is the sole publicly listed company in Nigeria's waste management sector on the NGX, providing unique investor access to this growing industry. - Regulatory and Expertise Barriers: Hazardous waste management (including incineration, e-waste processing, decontamination, and industrial cleaning) requires stringent permits, specialized infrastructure (e.g., high-pressure jetting, vacuum systems, thermal treatment), and compliance with environmental regulations—creating high entry barriers. - Niche Leadership: Proven expertise in complex services for oil & gas (a major client base), with robust infrastructure and international-standard capabilities. Competitors exist (e.g., private firms like Del Waste, Halden Nigeria), but TIP's scale, track record, and public transparency give it a defensible position in a fragmented market. - Sector Tailwinds: Increasing enforcement of environmental laws, outsourcing of compliance by industries, and Nigeria's push for sustainability drive structural demand. 5. Insider and Market Confidence Recent insider purchases (e.g., major shareholders adding stakes at market prices) signal belief in continued upside. The company's long-term vision aligns with rewarding shareholders through growth and potential dividend increases. While capital raises involve dilution, the deep discount for public offer participants offsets this, allowing entry at a favorable valuation into a high-growth, moated business. The waste management sector in Nigeria is underdeveloped but expanding rapidly due to regulatory pressures and industrialization—positioning TIP to capture outsized benefits. Risks include execution challenge. Overall, this offer provides a rare chance to invest in Nigeria's leading (and only listed) hazardous waste specialist at a discounted price during a period of exceptional momentum. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by essentialone(m): 9:01am On Dec 13, 2025 |
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/Lasaco_Assurance_Plc_EGM_Resolution.pdf At how much will Lasaco likely fix their Rights Issue? |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by rmx: 9:04am On Dec 13, 2025 |
emmanuelewumi:Not sure Black market got to 300naira in 2015 , bought around 230 August 2015 |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 9:10am On Dec 13, 2025 |
rmx:Reason why I used CBN rate.
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by SonofElElyonRet: 9:22am On Dec 13, 2025 |
mikeayus:Obviously you don't know SpaceX is a comedian |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by GeneralDae: 9:30am On Dec 13, 2025 |
Nigeria recorded its highest trade surplus in six years in 2025 — and it only took 9 months to achieve 2020 Exports: N12.52trn Imports: N12.70trn Total trade: N25.22trn Trade balance: -N178.26bn (deficit) 2021 Exports: N18.91trn Imports: N20.84trn Total trade: N39.75trn Trade balance: -N1.94trn (deficit) 2022 Exports: N26.80trn Imports: N25.59trn Total trade: N52.39trn Trade balance: N1.21trn (surplus) 2023 Exports: N35.96trn Imports: N30.86trn Total trade: N66.83trn Trade balance: N5.10trn (surplus) 2024 Exports: N77.44trn Imports: N60.59trn Total trade: N138.03trn Trade balance: N16.85trn (surplus) 2025* Exports: N66.16trn Imports: N46.84trn Total trade: N113.00trn Trade balance: N19.34trn (surplus) *2025 data is for Jan-Sep <NBS> |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Panadee: 10:04am On Dec 13, 2025 |
GeneralDae:These figures are stated in nominal terms, not adjusted for inflation, devaluation or anything else I can observe. We should always view statistics objectively. "There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics" - Mark Twain/Benjamin Disraeli |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by SonofElElyonRet: 10:04am On Dec 13, 2025 |
emmanuelewumi:Decided to screenshot some pages of the materials of one of the options. Of course I left out the name of the development to avoid circumvention.. ![]() Attached are for educational purposes and for you to crunch the numbers.. seeing you appear somewhat pessimistic. No one should interrogate me as I am a referral partner and certainly not a guru on UK real estate. Further enquiries can be attended to by the UK real estate company that I partner with. shalom
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by nosa2(m): 10:18am On Dec 13, 2025 |
emmanuelewumi:First he borrowed part of the N50m, but aside from that, do you know what it is to have money tied down for 10 years not yielding anything? That na serious loss oh |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by nosa2(m): 10:18am On Dec 13, 2025 |
orriyomi33:Dont know anything about Chams. Ok may be I think they are the ones involved in the NIN thing. Kudos to them. I think I have looked at their result sometime in the past and there was nothing sexy about it |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by nosa2(m): 10:18am On Dec 13, 2025 |
handsomebolanle:I was listening to the Green ticker interview on TIP and the thing was getting me super excited. To be fair I looked at the company's last result and it was GOOD!!! In fact after seeing the result I called my broker that I wanted to buy the offer (I don't usually like buying public offers) However, as I was listening to the interview the CEO now said that if there is over subscription they will adsorb all of it. At that point my excitement just died. More money is always good for a business however, they already knew how much they needed, now why would he be so excited to dilute his holdings by adsorbing more shares than necessary. Basically I still like the business, I like their expansion plans BUT I am not buying till I start to see more clarity from future results |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 10:20am On Dec 13, 2025 |
SonofElElyonRet:Rent of £2400 per month is a about the monthly salary of an average Nigerian in UK. Just wondering how 100% of monthly income will go into rent. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by nosa2(m): 10:21am On Dec 13, 2025 |
Mankind2024:I noticed the insider buying as well but then again they may be buying as a way to signal confidence. After all why will they buy at market price when they can get at a discount via the offer |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 10:21am On Dec 13, 2025 |
nosa2:Offer extended because they could not get the amount they needed |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by nosa2(m): 10:24am On Dec 13, 2025 |
emmanuelewumi:Country hard!!! I might pick some up now |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 10:26am On Dec 13, 2025 |
nosa2:He was not paying rent, so he might have well saved money on rent. Although knowing how to allocate capital is very very important Look for stocks or businesses with earning growth that is higher than inflation, look for highly scalable businesses or invest in stocks or businesses with a Return on Invested Capital of 30% and above. I learnt this late, probably about 7 years ago.☝️☝️ His N50 million invested in the property would have grown over N1 billion |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 10:48am On Dec 13, 2025 |
Panadee:Why do you need to adjust for anything in trade surplus when all parameters you are comparing is within the same year? Abi you no understand wetin trade surplus mean? |
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