₦airaland Forum

Panadee:
These figures are stated in nominal terms, not adjusted for inflation, devaluation or anything else I can observe.
We should always view statistics objectively.
"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics" - Mark Twain/Benjamin Disraeli

This is trade surplus which is simply the difference between imports and exports. Devaluation and Inflation doesn’t really matter much here.
I can convert the figures to dollars for you using official exchange rates of each period.

2022 = 2.81 Billion USD
2023 = 8.50 Billion USD
2024 = 14.94 Billion USD
2025 = 12.75 Billion USD (for 9 months only)

In the early 2000’s we sometimes had trade surpluses of around 40 Billion USD when we produced over 2.2 million bpd of crude oil. Then naira was just 120 to the dollar.

essentialone:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/Lasaco_Assurance_Plc_EGM_Resolution.pdf


At how much will Lasaco likely fix their Rights Issue?

Why moving from 11b to 36b shares though? I even thought they already met recapitalization requirements and could acquire other coys in the sector.

Na wa o

nosa2:
I was listening to the Green ticker interview on TIP and the thing was getting me super excited. To be fair I looked at the company's last result and it was GOOD!!! In fact after seeing the result I called my broker that I wanted to buy the offer (I don't usually like buying public offers)

However, as I was listening to the interview the CEO now said that if there is over subscription they will adsorb all of it. At that point my excitement just died. More money is always good for a business however, they already knew how much they needed, now why would he be so excited to dilute his holdings by adsorbing more shares than necessary. Basically I still like the business, I like their expansion plans BUT I am not buying till I start to see more clarity from future results

This is my concern as well. The dilution will become too much and investors will have to wait a long time.
Even after allotments, the price can be depressed due to this.
They should have simply maintained and stayed on the original plan.
The statement on the extension stats due to strong demand. It appears they want to mop more money

Agbalowomeri:
Why do you need to adjust for anything in trade surplus when all parameters you are comparing is within the same year? Abi you no understand wetin trade surplus mean?

You for allow am do the calculations whether he will get a different result

emmanuelewumi:
Rent of £2400 per month is a about the monthly salary of an average Nigerian in UK.

Just wondering how 100% of monthly income will go into rent.

You are funny sha. Always looking for new ways to be pessimistic
Didn't you hear that there are sitting tenants Anyway let's just agree that you are not interested else you would've asked to get clarification from the UK real estate company in charge. And why the reference to Nigerian tenants in UK? Who told you it's Nigerians living there? It's for investment not for living in. Na wa for Pa Emma.. waiting for your next "query". You've made up your mind obviously. No matter what anybody says or proves. Shalom

NSEstudent:
Why moving from 11b to 36b shares though? I even thought they already met recapitalization requirements and could acquire other coys in the sector.

Na wa o

Not from 11 Billion shares to 36 Billion shares. But from 11 Billion Naira shares to 36 Billion Naira shares.

I can bet there’s no actual strong demand. Else you won’t need a whole month extension.

unite4real:
This is my concern as well. The dilution will become too much and investors will have to wait a long time.
Even after allotments, the price can be depressed due to this.
They should have simply maintained and stayed on the original plan.
The statement on the extension stats due to strong demand. It appears they want to mop more money

essentialone:
Not from 11 Billion shares to 36 Billion shares. But from 11 Billion Naira shares to 36 Billion Naira shares.

Okay yea, they are increasing their share capital.

I think that comment might be a matketing stinct. Would you want to subscribe for the PO and have your money returned to you after about 2 months due to not meeting your purchase. Would you want him to state that your funds will be returned to you... lol. The prospectus already states the number of units and amount required. Anything contrary will amount to a difference from what approval was gotten from both board and SEC.

nosa2:
I was listening to the Green ticker interview on TIP and the thing was getting me super excited. To be fair I looked at the company's last result and it was GOOD!!! In fact after seeing the result I called my broker that I wanted to buy the offer (I don't usually like buying public offers)

However, as I was listening to the interview the CEO now said that if there is over subscription they will adsorb all of it. At that point my excitement just died. More money is always good for a business however, they already knew how much they needed, now why would he be so excited to dilute his holdings by adsorbing more shares than necessary. Basically I still like the business, I like their expansion plans BUT I am not buying till I start to see more clarity from future results

Stockhunter:
I think that comment might be a matketing stinct. Would you want to subscribe for the PO and have your money returned to you after about 2 months due to not meeting your purchase. Would you want him to state that your funds will be returned to you... lol. The prospectus already states the number of units and amount required. Anything contrary will amount to a difference from what approval was gotten from both board and SEC.

Then they could allocate on a pro rata basis.

This market is too cheap for me to be making plays where all the ducks do not line up. There are stocks with audited results and yields of about 10% trading at earnings multiples of less than 3. For me to ignore those and put my money elsewhere I will need that elsewhere not to have any potential red flags.

P.S I am shamelessly pumping Zenith Bank

Imagine Inter state flight ticket up to 500k now hmmm

Let me not complain like a common man but rather think like a smart investor by looking in the direction of NAHCO as the Q4 profit will be explosive.

All because the government has failed to secure the roads.

NAHCO will pay me more

SonofElElyonRet:
You are funny sha. Always looking for new ways to be pessimistic
Didn't you hear that there are sitting tenants Anyway let's just agree that you are not interested else you would've asked to get clarification from the UK real estate company in charge. And why the reference to Nigerian tenants in UK? Who told you it's Nigerians living there? It's for investment not for living in. Na wa for Pa Emma.. waiting for your next "query". You've made up your mind obviously. No matter what anybody says or proves. Shalom

I have always said it is possible to get 10% and 12% from an investment property which you manage, the extra return was due to your time, management skill and resources used.


But the typical yield on a residential property is usually single digits.

If I used my N100 million properly for residential tenancy, I will get a rental income of about N7 million per annum.


If I use the same property as a motel for travellers, I can get N15 million from the same property. Although it involves more management and risks. Eg if a lodger was killed in the room or robbers used the place as their meeting point etc

.....

nosa2:
I was listening to the Green ticker interview on TIP and the thing was getting me super excited. To be fair I looked at the company's last result and it was GOOD!!! In fact after seeing the result I called my broker that I wanted to buy the offer (I don't usually like buying public offers)

However, as I was listening to the interview the CEO now said that if there is over subscription they will adsorb all of it. At that point my excitement just died. More money is always good for a business however, they already knew how much they needed, now why would he be so excited to dilute his holdings by adsorbing more shares than necessary. Basically I still like the business, I like their expansion plans BUT I am not buying till I start to see more clarity from future results

Thanks Boss…
I will observe from 4th -9th of January. I still feel burn with the UBA RI I took at 50. E pain me 😁😁

ositadima1:
No, this is still misleading and superficial. It’s like saying Nigeria just recorded the highest average height, when in reality many short people were excluded from the measurement for some reason. This kind of summary statistic will lead you astray.

You can clearly see that export revenues almost doubled from 2024. You know why: the floating of the naira. In fact, 2025 actually saw a drop in export revenues, which is not a good sign.

On the import side, similar reasoning applies, but with a twist. The Dangote Refinery played a major role here. refined oil related imports were the largest import item, and imports were expected to fall.

The Dangote Refinery operates independently of the government, so this cannot be counted as a direct result of government policy.

There is more to unpack, but I won’t go into that here.

The 2025 data is for just nine months. Also there isn’t much difference between the average FX rate of 2024 (at around 1460/$) and that of 2025 (currently at around 1500/$).
Also, price of crude oil has been relatively low in 2025 so crude oil exports have been lower compared to 2022/2023. Dangote refinery’s crude oil import is large and is also included in the data for imports as well. So some of these things balance each other out to an extent.

ositadima1:
No, this is still misleading and superficial. It’s like saying Nigeria just recorded the highest average height, when in reality many short people were excluded from the measurement for some reason. This kind of summary statistic will lead you astray.

You can clearly see that export revenues almost doubled from 2024. You know why: the floating of the naira. In fact, 2025 actually saw a drop in export revenues, which is not a good sign.

On the import side, similar reasoning applies, but with a twist. The Dangote Refinery played a major role here. refined oil related imports were the largest import item, and imports were expected to fall.

The Dangote Refinery operates independently of the government, so this cannot be counted as a direct result of government policy.

There is more to unpack, but I won’t go into that here.

In economic terms what does balance of payment mean, whether trade surplus or deficit? Simply means the economy is shifting the narratives. You are comparing export versus import for THE SAME YEAR. Same conditions apply, whether currency or inflation.

Is Dangote Refinery not included in Nigeria's GDP? I think it would be misleading to just interpret everything from government performance perspectives.

awesomeJ:
But market sentiments can change in a hurry.

There may be people who have jumped in solely for the purpose of cashing in on this spread, if the new shares get listed, they may easily depress the price by putting just 50m units on offer.

That's one angle to look at.

Another angle is that even this current price might be getting defended cos of the offers, and that defence might no longer exists after the offer.


Those are the perspectives I have regarding the attractive discounts on the offer price.


For pure fundamentals, the stock is doing below 5x earnings multiple, which I don't think is bad.

For FY '26, they will have to grow their already impressive 2024 numbers by over 100% to maintain PE below 5x.

Both offers will increase their OS by up to 125%, so it has to be that the new N10bn cash injection can help them grow earnings by an extra N2.5bn to around N5bn next year.


For dividends and technicals, I think others will add their perspective.

So weigh everything and decide.

Thanks Chief.

I will be watching in the days ahead

Agbalowomeri:
In economic terms what does balance of payment mean, whether trade surplus or deficit? Simply means the economy is shifting the narratives. You are comparing export versus import for THE SAME YEAR. Same conditions apply, whether currency or inflation.

Is Dangote Refinery not included in Nigeria's GDP? I think it would be misleading to just interpret everything from government performance perspectives.

I tire oo. I didn’t even mention Government in my initial post.

GeneralDae:
Nigeria recorded its highest trade surplus in six years in 2025 — and it only took 9 months to achieve

2020
Exports: N12.52trn
Imports: N12.70trn
Total trade: N25.22trn
Trade balance: -N178.26bn (deficit)

2021
Exports: N18.91trn
Imports: N20.84trn
Total trade: N39.75trn
Trade balance: -N1.94trn (deficit)

2022
Exports: N26.80trn
Imports: N25.59trn
Total trade: N52.39trn
Trade balance: N1.21trn (surplus)

2023
Exports: N35.96trn
Imports: N30.86trn
Total trade: N66.83trn
Trade balance: N5.10trn (surplus)

2024
Exports: N77.44trn
Imports: N60.59trn
Total trade: N138.03trn
Trade balance: N16.85trn (surplus)

2025*
Exports: N66.16trn
Imports: N46.84trn
Total trade: N113.00trn
Trade balance: N19.34trn (surplus)

*2025 data is for Jan-Sep

<NBS>

This government with rubbish propaganda and statistics all the time.How much is dollars since they came .What is any reasonable person expecting at this exchange rates.Definately it was going to turn surplus because people reduced importation because of high exchange rate and nothing special from the side of the government. When u Import at this kind exchange .You may end up doing prayer and fasting to sell the goods.Then the imported refined products equally dropped courtesy of alhaji.So the failed government did nothing special based on this yeye statistics. Why don't they tell us the FDI they have attracted since 2023
Take example in the tokunbo cars.it dropped by over 50% .And different increased tax on importation is equally thr since yeye government emerged

Agbalowomeri:
In economic terms what does balance of payment mean, whether trade surplus or deficit? Simply means the economy is shifting the narratives. You are comparing export versus import for THE SAME YEAR. Same conditions apply, whether currency or inflation.

Is Dangote Refinery not included in Nigeria's GDP? I think it would be misleading to just interpret everything from government performance perspectives.

GeneralDae:
The 2025 data is for just nine months. Also there isn’t much difference between the average FX rate of 2024 (at around 1460/$) and that of 2025 (currently at around 1500/$).
Also, price of crude oil has been relatively low in 2025 so crude oil exports have been lower compared to 2022/2023. Dangote refinery’s crude oil import is large and is also included in the data for imports as well. So some of these things balance each other out to an extent.

If you want to recognize the truth, you need to look beyond oversimplified statistics. Do you know that currency depreciation does not affect exports and imports equally, even within the same year? Imports react almost immediately through price shocks and demand destruction, while exports respond much more slowly.

There are two broad ways to record a trade surplus. The first is a strong-country surplus, driven by high productivity, competitive manufacturing, rising exports, and stable imports of capital goods. The second is a weak-country surplus, driven by currency collapse, import compression, falling consumption, and declining capital-goods imports.

These are, of course, extremes, but the point stands: don’t let numbers confuse you.

ositadima1:
. The second is a weak-country surplus, driven by currency collapse, import compression, falling consumption, and declining capital-goods imports.

These are, of course, extremes, but the point stands: don’t let numbers confuse you.

This exactly what they have achieved and want to celebrate it because every rubbish is poliics to them.If it was the first, it would have called for celebration

deathwing:
I can bet there’s no actual strong demand. Else you won’t need a whole month extension.

One month extension keh, the extension should not be more than 2 weeks

ogawisdom:
Imagine Inter state flight ticket up to 500k now hmmm

Let me not complain like a common man but rather think like a smart investor by looking in the direction of NAHCO as the Q4 profit will be explosive.

All because the government has failed to secure the roads.

NAHCO will pay me more

Might pay a dividend of up to N10 per share

emmanuelewumi:
One month extension keh, the extension should not be more than 2 weeks

That means the fund raise fall like pawpaw way don over ripe..lol.E scatter die
Kpakus own go loud pass this one lol

emmanuelewumi:
He was not paying rent, so he might have well saved money on rent.

Although knowing how to allocate capital is very very important


Look for stocks or businesses with earning growth that is higher than inflation, look for highly scalable businesses or invest in stocks or businesses with a Return on Invested Capital of 30% and above.

I learnt this late, probably about 7 years ago.☝️☝️

His N50 million invested in the property would have grown over N1 billion

I have a land , government GRA , bought 15m 2020 , going is 200/210m now , easy sales , not lagos , know people and friends that laid there hands on 3, 5,6 plots then ,allocation , even the resale price a year after was I think 22 to 25m from original allottees , remembered moving aggressively into dollars and ngx shares As shares crashed world wide around March to June 2020 , , I had liquidated most of my FD and fled naira asset as COVID spread , a few regrets I have from that period is not purchasing more lands , and not investing well in us stocks , all assets were on sales worldwide , as much as I gained then , it could have been x 2 , x3 or x4 looking back now ,what a period ! , I think it was once in a century moment , this life you win some , you loose some , only let you wins be more than loses

ogawisdom:
Imagine Inter state flight ticket up to 500k now hmmm

Let me not complain like a common man but rather think like a smart investor by looking in the direction of NAHCO as the Q4 profit will be explosive.

All because the government has failed to secure the roads.

NAHCO will pay me more

Does nahco have air lines to benefit from this criminality happening. If na me dey for no see single passenger. I will cancel the journey

Streetinvestor2:
That means the fund raise fall like pawpaw way don over ripe..lol.E scatter die
Kpakus own go loud pass this one lol

Another thing look out for are stocks that a good number of institutional investors have in their portfolios


You can easily use such stocks to secure loans, you can easily sell such stocks and convert to cash, unlike some stocks that people will have to hawk on Nairaland for weeks before they can convert less than N100 million worth to cash

ositadima1:
If you want to recognize the truth, you need to look beyond oversimplified statistics. Do you know that currency depreciation does not affect exports and imports equally, even within the same year? Imports react almost immediately through price shocks and demand destruction, while exports respond much more slowly.

There are two broad ways to record a trade surplus. The first is a strong-country surplus, driven by high productivity, competitive manufacturing, rising exports, and stable imports of capital goods. The second is a weak-country surplus, driven by currency collapse, import compression, falling consumption, and declining capital-goods imports.

These are, of course, extremes, but the point stands: don’t let numbers confuse you.

Okay use numbers and give me the imports of the first 6 months of 2023 and that of 2025 in both dollars and naira. Use 500/$ for H1 2023 and 1550/$ for H1 2025.
I did the calculation and the difference is just $3 Billion but the exports increased tremendously despite lower crude oil prices in H1 2025.

Imports for H1 2023 = 11.286 trillion naira = 22.57 Billion USD

Imports for H1 2025 = 30.706 trillion naira = 19.81 Billion USD.

GeneralDae:
I tire oo. I didn’t even mention Government in my initial post.

Lwkd.what else do u represent here or come to this thread to do.
What was ur last post on this thread all about. And when was that too

emmanuelewumi:
I have always said it is possible to get 10% and 12% from an investment property which you manage, the extra return was due to your time, management skill and resources used.


But the typical yield on a residential property is usually single digits.

If I used my N100 million properly for residential tenancy, I will get a rental income of about N7 million per annum.


If I use the same property as a motel for travellers, I can get N15 million from the same property. Although it involves more management and risks. Eg if a lodger was killed in the room or robbers used the place as their meeting point etc

N7 million rent from a N100 Million property is rare. I have couple of friends in Abuja who bought houses and some built with value around N100 million and the rent is around N4.5 to N5 million

unite4real:
N7 million rent from a N100 Million property is rare. I have couple of friends in Abuja who bought houses and some built with value around N100 million and the rent is around N4.5 to N5 million

I know, that is the highest. The average is 5% and the property can appreciate by 10% to 15% per annum

emmanuelewumi:
Might pay a dividend of up to N10 per share

But their 9 months EPS was not up to N7